tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27740793956777725782024-03-19T15:44:06.517-07:00SatherOnWaiversEmail me at HockeyStatMiner@Yahoo.com or follow me on Twitter @HockeyStatMinerS.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.comBlogger59125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-8062670110128761132015-07-24T07:40:00.000-07:002015-07-24T08:00:45.545-07:00Stepan, Glass, the Rangers' State-of-Salary-Cap, & Their 2016 Offense? <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjq7H0pRDd5BCWuS0qoPEZ8uEsIgWn-EXI_aMAn5Adq3cA72TXoK1KkFnJMomfzYh5JRd78I6_rVQh5eVn07UnzZML3_XEKc6chwHF_xePGvb7b4C90mc0k6aSwZrmvt8aIP47RxGgkU-A/s1600/22-4751.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjq7H0pRDd5BCWuS0qoPEZ8uEsIgWn-EXI_aMAn5Adq3cA72TXoK1KkFnJMomfzYh5JRd78I6_rVQh5eVn07UnzZML3_XEKc6chwHF_xePGvb7b4C90mc0k6aSwZrmvt8aIP47RxGgkU-A/s640/22-4751.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span class="s1"><b><span style="font-size: large;">1) The Rangers have about $6.75 million in cap space to sign Derek Stepan.</span></b></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiimUIyhc0ZFF29ZFerjMTL4MuZ9p8TLFnzoAxEdIPpunuW9rxQvwZfR_-L5A_sjYhA9k2IgZiXAD74lUZZ10KcSyAJxe6_R7U4DW0EcPhvDinCDkfh1sckfMVFCguOhqWNdiE8WGZWrbI/s1600/CKemczFWUAQaZya-2.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiimUIyhc0ZFF29ZFerjMTL4MuZ9p8TLFnzoAxEdIPpunuW9rxQvwZfR_-L5A_sjYhA9k2IgZiXAD74lUZZ10KcSyAJxe6_R7U4DW0EcPhvDinCDkfh1sckfMVFCguOhqWNdiE8WGZWrbI/s640/CKemczFWUAQaZya-2.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Etem, Lindberg & Miller will gain the right to salary arbitration after their current contracts expire by playing in 10+ games next season. So we make the assumption it will happen.</td></tr>
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<span class="s1"> While the Rangers may actually have only 21 or 22 roster spots come October 1st, the idea is to represent a 14th forward (designated at Jayson Megna in the graph,but could easily be Luke Adam, Brian Gibbons, or Matt Lindblad; all of whom have identical contracts). Because if a team is to pack a roster to the absolute salary cap ceiling, as the Rangers are likely to do, you want to hedge against a string of handcuffing injuries.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Yes, if a player is hurt for a long stretch of time, he may be placed on Long-Term-Injured-Reserve… in which case the team would receive compensatory cap space to replace the injured athlete’s roster spot. But injuries only lasting a few days or weeks would not qualify, and thus the team would be expected to replace the injure player’s manpower WITHOUT any cap relief.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Thus, for the sake of this reality, we submit any NHL team’s cap situation based on it carrying 23 players. And like we said, Megna’s assumption as the 14th forward would have identical cap implications as that of Adam, Gibbons or Lindblad. Or, if homegrown AHL’ers Marek Hrivik ($575,000 cap hit) or Ryan Bourque ($562,500 cap hit) earn the title of 14th forward in training camp, then the Rangers would have an insignificant $25,000 to $37,500 extra in cap space than demonstrated in the above image.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Remember, a team’s salary cap cost is a rolling, cumulative total. Which means if a team is $1 million below the salary cap for the first half of the season, it earns the right to go $1 million above the cap for the second half. This is why the now-defunct Capgeek infamously and brilliantly measured a team’s ‘future cap space’ for the upcoming trade deadline in a given season; a team $1 million under the salary cap in November or December could be projected to have much more cap room come February or March.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Thus if the Rangers pack the roster to the absolute cap ceiling in aggregate of 23 players come October 1st; by luckily and hopefully staying healthy, the team could only carry 21 or 22 players for as much time as possible, which would allow the same group of 23 players to have considerably more cap space at a given time later down the season.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> In any event, barring an August or September trade, the Rangers must re-sign Stepan to something below $6.75 million.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b><span style="font-size: large;">2) Does Tanner Glass return to Broadway next season?</span></b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> The fact that Glass was not jettisoned from the roster in June or July suggests that there is a very likely chance of his continued role on the team. However, we continue to insinuate that Glass is the most expendable asset on the roster, should the team need even a few hundred thousand more dollars in cap space going forward.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> We’ve posted a <a href="https://twitter.com/HockeyStatMiner/status/622662348445253632" target="_blank">tongue-in-cheek conspiracy theory</a>, half-seriously suggesting the idea that a trade to dump Glass for cap space is already lined up, but his presence on the roster during Stepan negotiations serves a fruitful purpose as to keep Stepan’s asking price (and realistic expectations) lower than they would were Glass be already exiled, and New York had more available cap space. </span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Put it like this: if Glass were traded away in June or July, and his exiled roster spot were theoretically replaced by Adam, Gibbons, Lindblad, Hrivik or Bourque… the Rangers would have approximately $7.6 million in cap space (instead of their current $6.75 million). Stepan’s camp could, in turn, more reasonably demand a cap hit north of $7 million, without the Rangers camp pointing to a chart of their salary cap space and saying ‘we simply don’t have that liquidity available.’</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Aside from this cute idea, there’s not much value to Glass and his $1.45 million cap hit remaining on a roster so hard-pressed for cap space.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Yes, Glass is the only fighter/goon on the current roster. But in the modern NHL, where incoming players are required to have visors and penalized for removing helmets in a bout of fistacuffs… the hard truth remains that the ability to fight is a <a href="http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/is-the-hockey-goon-really-dying-this-time/" target="_blank">dying necessity for an NHL team to have</a>. It may sell tickets or accumulate hits on YouTube, but it seems less and less a vital ingredient to Stanley Cup contenders.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Consider this:</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> If the Rangers traded away Glass, and signed a goon for the league-minimum $575,000/year… it would result in $875,000 in gained NYR cap space.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> If the Rangers buried Glass in the minor leagues, as they have done with Wade Redden, Aaron Asham & Darrol Powe… and replaced Glass’ roster spot with a $575,000/year goon of similar-or-equal contribution… it would still result in $350,000 gained in NYR cap space.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> There’s very little argument for Glass to remain a Ranger next season, even if one concludes having a scrapper on the team is indeed required. </span></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">3) How could NY trade Glass when he has such a relatively high cap hit compared to his relatively low worth?</span></b><span class="s1"></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> No, Glass won’t have much trade value on the swap market. This is true.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> But his front-loaded contract, nearing its back end of existence, provides some inherent value in of itself: Once Glass receives his 2015 signing bonus ($450,000) sometime between July 1 and October 1 (depending on how its structured in his contract)… for the remaining 21 months of his contract will feature something very attractive to low-market teams: he will be getting $1.45 in cap hit for every $1 actually paid.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> You know why the Arizona Coyotes acquired Chris Pronger’s fossilized contract, with no intent to put him on LTIR in September? Because for only $575,000 of actual salary, they receive $4,941,429 in salary cap credit, which helps the financially-challenged team reach the NHL cap floor at a massive discount. The same logic applies to why the Florida Panthers acquired the contract of Marc Savard ($575,000 in actual cost for $4,027,143 in cap credit).</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> While Glass is surely not such a bargain for that scheme, his $1.45-for-$1 cap-credit-for-actual-salary advantage remains there. As of right now, the teams with the lowest salaries are The NJ Devils, Nashville Predators & Anaheim Ducks. All are technically above the cap floor, but still may be attracted to the scheme of Glass’ contract rather than its actual skill-on-the-pill merits.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Of course, the Rangers could always ‘pay’ a team to take Glass. While trading Glass and a 6th round draft pick for a team’s 7th round draft pick is hardly fruitful, something along those lines remains practical and possible. </span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b><span style="font-size: large;">4) How Much will Derek Stepan receive?</span></b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> This has been the question, and we’ve poked around at it since last winter.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Here’s the scoop:</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Since Stepan is the one who filed for arbitration, the Rangers choose whether the hearing will determine a binding 1-year or 2-year award. Stepan would be a restricted free agent once more in the event of a 1-year award (where the Rangers could not negotiate a long-term deal with him until January 1st, 2016). Or, Stepan would be an unrestricted free agent upon contract expiration should the Rangers opt for a 2-year award.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> It’s tough to tell, but we surmise Stepan’s cost to scale from $6 million to $7 million per year, steadily increasing as the length of a deal (1 year to 8 years) increases as well. 1-year for $6 million all the way to 8-years for $7 million/year would be our guess. Of course, its speculative, and the insertion of potential job security (No-Trade-Clause and/or No-Movement-Clause) would skew any figurative scale.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAxPi-WaPBip01zObNbrHhUt1rKb-tPXzBMhblyGx9YO0iykGhQS8_wy2c82d8pSkNgKc1c47NvBbXSmFolFqtJPUx51gr8EqXBdbjLQIiQXQpEBrhEcm9fyEPtvdMm5Sm8uNAIYr0j4w/s1600/CJRlDrQVAAEoM2O.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAxPi-WaPBip01zObNbrHhUt1rKb-tPXzBMhblyGx9YO0iykGhQS8_wy2c82d8pSkNgKc1c47NvBbXSmFolFqtJPUx51gr8EqXBdbjLQIiQXQpEBrhEcm9fyEPtvdMm5Sm8uNAIYr0j4w/s640/CJRlDrQVAAEoM2O.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span class="s1"> Ryan O’Reilly’s 2-year contract signed last summer for $6 million/year is a pretty direct comparable to that of what Stepan’s objective worth could be. It can be used as evidence in a potential arbitration hearing, because O’Reilly signed it when he was at the same point in his contractual career as Stepan is now, unlike the contract he more recently signed with Buffalo, where he was an impending unrestricted free agent.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Subject to change, or flat out being totally inaccurate, we’d suggest Stepan’s relative worth to signing a deal (or being awarded one in arbitration) is something like:</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;">1 year - $6,000,000 / year</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;">2 year - $6,150,000 / year</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;">3 year - $6,333,333 / year</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;">4 year - $6,500,000 / year</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;">5 year - $6,700,000 / year</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;">6 year - $6,900,000 / year</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;">7 year - $7,000,000 / year</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;">8 year - $7,050,000 / year</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> If this scale is anything resembling the truth, then the Rangers could re-sign Stepan to anything 5 years or under, and theoretically be able to sit back and stand pat on the current roster without further need to tweak it. Should the Rangers & Stepan amicably hash out a deal for 6, 7 or 8 years… then trading Glass (or some asset carrying relevant cap space) would become imperative.</span><br />
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<span class="s1"> <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/what-we-learned--how-much-is-derek-stepan-really-worth-134748010.html" target="_blank">Here is a more elaborate dive</a> into how much Stepan may actually be worth according to Ryan Lambert of Yahoo! Sports</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b><span style="font-size: large;">5) Assuming Stepan is re-signed, how does the Rangers’ offense look for next season?</span></b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Again, highly speculative, but we did some work projecting how many goals each contracted Ranger could be expected to produce for the 2015-16 season. Of course individual injuries or issues can wildly skew these projections, but we figure a sum of approximately 222 goals is what to expect.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDi5_kuUKOFVtJqB8PTnd1jXPIzoGaXHTQ0Laz2LwKSf6mouf6g4nKxXy1Dlr3-vGplVf4xig4ppvpulRwwxKIw2BTS08JSiGbCCUO3TkK8JMuhHVZtQWFDSmhnWQwwUGGO25uq9QbnTo/s1600/CJgGB98UwAATi-6-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="590" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDi5_kuUKOFVtJqB8PTnd1jXPIzoGaXHTQ0Laz2LwKSf6mouf6g4nKxXy1Dlr3-vGplVf4xig4ppvpulRwwxKIw2BTS08JSiGbCCUO3TkK8JMuhHVZtQWFDSmhnWQwwUGGO25uq9QbnTo/s640/CJgGB98UwAATi-6-1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span class="s1"> If this is the case, that 222 goals represents 17th most in the 2014-15 NHL, 1 less than the Winnipeg Jets but 2 more than the Chicago Blackhawks. </span></div>
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<span class="s1"> As the Rangers Top-6 defense, and starting goaltender, will be the same next season as it was last season… Should the Rangers repeat the figure of 187 goals allowed (which was 3rd least in the NHL behind Montreal & Chicago), that’s a projected goal differential of +35. It would be a dramatic decrease in the Rangers’ league-leading +60 of last season, but still good enough to be 6th highest in the NHL, comparing to 2014-15 stats.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Again, this is highly speculative, so take it with a grain of margin-for-error salt.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Conclusion</span></b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Once the Rangers, be it via mutual agreement or arbitration result, have locked up Stepan’s services for at least another season… the team looks to remain a playoff-bound group of players, even if repeating an NHL Presidential Trophy seems unlikely. Again, while trading pieces like Glass or Dylan McIlrath may indeed occur between now and opening night, one should assume a quiet stretch of time of the Rangers’ offseason once Stepan drama comes to an end. Expect a boring 4-6 weeks in Rangerstown leading up to the dawn of the regular season.</span><br />
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<span class="s1"> The temporary uncertainty revolving around Stepan's inevitable new contract aside, there's no reason to suspect the NY Rangers will be anything but a competitive NHL team next season.</span></div>
S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-62340317715575133072015-07-01T01:38:00.000-07:002015-07-01T01:41:40.915-07:003 Questions the NY Rangers Will Answer This Summer<ol class="ol1">
<li class="li2"><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: large;">Do the Rangers have much salary cap room to pursue free agents?</span></li>
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<span class="s1"> No, they do not.</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixWG9Hv3kVWx64rFlY8NpsaaYs552HexCUYdGdRRtTwg-ojfT6JsdWXR6EnO6j57UHKhrC7i4MWueAAnPaUqGMiE2OI5tp3fs1MQxHeQDzp5giTu-Ole4_50-oLBLryAxyHJ5HtizqxfI/s1600/sahsagfh.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixWG9Hv3kVWx64rFlY8NpsaaYs552HexCUYdGdRRtTwg-ojfT6JsdWXR6EnO6j57UHKhrC7i4MWueAAnPaUqGMiE2OI5tp3fs1MQxHeQDzp5giTu-Ole4_50-oLBLryAxyHJ5HtizqxfI/s400/sahsagfh.png" width="397" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">(Note: If Brady Skjei is NOT ready for the NHL roster, he can remain in Hartford (AHL), and a $925k 7th defenseman can be signed in free agency)</td></tr>
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<span class="s1"> Looking over the NY Rangers salaries (estimates of Restricted Free Agents are in purple), the Rangers really only have a few million at most to spend on a few depth forwards. Unless they trade a major contract, which doesn’t seem terribly likely… this offseason will be quiet for Rangers fans. Which, honestly, isn’t a bad thing as this summer’s free agent class <i><u><a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/globe-on-hockey/mirtle-the-best-nhl-free-agents-in-a-very-weak-class/article25195985/" target="_blank">seems a bit stale compared to previous summers</a></u></i>.</span></div>
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<li class="li2"><span class="s1"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Will the Rangers keep Kevin Hayes at [3rd line] center, or revert him back to his natural position of winger?</span></span></li>
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<span class="s1"> We’re not sure, but probably not.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC5IRldP9VDT_Gum_HG318G3mpJni8WRkT6DhkvHQwgxmNm-b0ZgsCxYX5xFlvGW9Hz62ITit6XjbFLWH3chZ6zyPhzoUVYiGwg9eXBS8VAwaalt_sRu_iQBetjOBeY8BCDDlh7_Hthjw/s1600/hayes2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC5IRldP9VDT_Gum_HG318G3mpJni8WRkT6DhkvHQwgxmNm-b0ZgsCxYX5xFlvGW9Hz62ITit6XjbFLWH3chZ6zyPhzoUVYiGwg9eXBS8VAwaalt_sRu_iQBetjOBeY8BCDDlh7_Hthjw/s640/hayes2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span class="s1"> Hayes struggled as center in the postseason, often losing his minutes under Stepan & Brassard to that of 4th center Dominic Moore. In fact, during the regular season, Kevin Hayes finished DEAD LAST in league-wide face-off percentage (minimum 100 face-offs taken) sporting a shameful 36.3%. While Hayes, 23, finished 7th in rookie-of-the-year (Calder Trophy) voting… it seems being a centerman is not his forte.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
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<span class="s1"><i><span style="font-size: large;"> Viable options?</span></i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
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<span class="s1"> <b> Oscar Lindberg</b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> A restricted free agent (without arbitration rights) with a qualifying offer of $709,000… we’d estimate a 1-year deal worth about $725,000 or a 2-year deal worth $800,000. Lindberg played heavy minutes (as a center) in Hartford last year, and <a href="http://snyrangersblog.com/prospects/oscar-lindberg/oscar-lindberg-is-ready-for-the-nhl/" target="_blank"><i>all indications point towards a serious chance</i></a> at making the NHL roster in October. Can he be trusted with 3rd line minutes? Would having a couple of youngsters like Hayes & Lindberg on the 3rd line be good enough for a team concerned with immediate contention? If the Rangers don’t pursue any free agent centers this summer, it’s a good bet they’ll be relying on Lindberg from the getgo.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGbuEr4o1KEcM_PNqYzoYGBVrbAS6P3hNxigHXVtAdtIpGKyD_yG43cvG1QuXz2A_9PNfk6P86lENIfrGsWRjDeauK7d3SAIIg3onAxl0gYyf_v12mdEEewX7vX0ZksyuXeKZlvt4Yip4/s1600/action-shot-for-blog-05-27-14-lindberg.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGbuEr4o1KEcM_PNqYzoYGBVrbAS6P3hNxigHXVtAdtIpGKyD_yG43cvG1QuXz2A_9PNfk6P86lENIfrGsWRjDeauK7d3SAIIg3onAxl0gYyf_v12mdEEewX7vX0ZksyuXeKZlvt4Yip4/s640/action-shot-for-blog-05-27-14-lindberg.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span class="s1"> <b>Riley Nash</b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> A somewhat surprising unrestricted free agent, as the Carolina Hurricanes <a href="http://www.canescountry.com/2015/6/29/8864949/hurricanes-qualify-boychuk-shugg-sutter-and-rissanen" target="_blank"><i>did not offer the 26-year-old center a qualifying offer</i></a> this week, making him (somewhat surprisingly) available to the open market. Nash scored 25 points in 68 games last season, winning 50.9% of his 958 face-offs. While there’s a very good chance Nash will receive offers from other teams in excess of $1 million/year (which is more than the Rangers could realistically offer), Nash seems like one of the most attractive options for a 3rd center. He averaged 16:19 minutes per game last season, and was one of Carolina’s top penalty killers, averaging 1:41 kill time per contest. A long shot, but certainly an attractive idea for Broadway to, at the very least, investigate.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWCs7p0d9kgMKjSBiL_5-glLqcUTE6tADkMmcSHSfO_jVG9IJ7mc0O_U0yZb2Kz2GFEUuUJVLG5YG1DZRmTF370sutHRJmgnPSfVlS0VhsiTeBrhFyWo5ylfqnAsNBZ6cWE1mLsmjVZlU/s1600/Riley_Nash_2013-3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="478" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWCs7p0d9kgMKjSBiL_5-glLqcUTE6tADkMmcSHSfO_jVG9IJ7mc0O_U0yZb2Kz2GFEUuUJVLG5YG1DZRmTF370sutHRJmgnPSfVlS0VhsiTeBrhFyWo5ylfqnAsNBZ6cWE1mLsmjVZlU/s640/Riley_Nash_2013-3.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span class="s1"> <b>Mark Arcobello</b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Another surprising non-qualification was that of Arizona not tendering Arcobello, who played 77 games for 4 different teams last season. Arcobello, 27, won 50.2% of his 939 face-offs overall last year, while averaging just under 15 minutes per game, perfect for a 3rd line center’s role. The combination of bouncing around the league AND <i><u><a href="http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2015/06/29/where-to-next-arcobello-poised-to-test-ufa-market/" target="_blank">not being offered</a></u></i> a mere $630,000 minimum qualifying offer may raise flags as to his ability in the league. Yet if his price is that low, he may be just the type of reclamation project Glen Sather could gamble on, sporting a low-risk low-reward offering. </span></div>
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<span class="s1"> <b>Cody Hodgson</b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> An unrestricted free agent who was just <i><u><a href="http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/eye-on-hockey/25228180/sabres-waive-cody-hodgson-for-purpose-of-buyout" target="_blank">recently bought out</a></u></i> by the revamping Buffalo Sabres. Hodgson, drafted 10th overall 7 years ago, had an impactful rookie year with the Vancouver Canucks before getting traded to Buffalo in 2012. While his 2012-13 & 2013-14 seasons in Buffalo were acceptable (78 points in 150 games)… his 2014-15 season was <i><u><a href="http://sabrenoise.com/2015/06/04/buffalo-sabres-players-year-in-review-cody-hodgson/" target="_blank">a complete abomination</a></u></i>. Not unlike the Sabres overall team performance, he scored an abysmally few amount of goals (6 goals in 1,002 minutes), leading to his recent contract buyout.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"> Should Hodgson be in a position to sign for less than $1 million/year (which seems likely), the Rangers could be an interested suitor. Additionally, if Hodgson signs for under $1 million/year and turns out to be an undesirable forward, he can be buried into the minors without effecting the Rangers cap hit with a burial fee. Or, if Lindberg is the go-to 3rd center, Hodgson’s use as a taxi squad extra forward seems like an imaginable fit.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdKJnvpAiJzYeT-srtN_RRht1MJgQHC2W2zEm5HiW6NKyboTK1HqpgNrk8Svvs1ZZuXMLamG4fO0y4VtwNsJUwzpu-fo-pRo5wKtm-kZSoNPPI8qPdgfFTqzfTWaz8ZxKGW9kIiAEEHds/s1600/cody-hodgson-nhl-buffalo-sabres-edmonton-oilers1-850x560.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdKJnvpAiJzYeT-srtN_RRht1MJgQHC2W2zEm5HiW6NKyboTK1HqpgNrk8Svvs1ZZuXMLamG4fO0y4VtwNsJUwzpu-fo-pRo5wKtm-kZSoNPPI8qPdgfFTqzfTWaz8ZxKGW9kIiAEEHds/s640/cody-hodgson-nhl-buffalo-sabres-edmonton-oilers1-850x560.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span class="s1"> <b>Brad Richards</b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> An unrestricted free agent coming off a Cup-clinching campaign, Richards is <i><u><a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015/06/list-of-unrestricted-free-agents-whom.html" target="_blank">one of the 28 eligible UFA skaters</a></u></i> able to sign a performance bonus loaded contract. While his net worth will be certainly over $1 million/year (<i><u><a href="http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/11164130/chicago-blackhawks-sign-veteran-center-brad-richards" target="_blank">he signed for double that</a></u></i> last summer)… the Rangers could feasibly acquire his services with a 1-year contract for $1 million or less in base pay (cap hit), but offer anywhere from $1 million to $4 million in (easily attainable) bonuses. We wrote about the NHL cap-crunch likely forcing teams to rely on performance-bonuses to accommodate the salary cap ceiling this summer, and a returning Richards could be an ideal specimen for the Rangers. However his age, and his potential stamina (he’s played 206 NHL games since October 2013) could raise concerns. Unlike other candidates we’re examining, Richards’ age means if he signs, his cap hit cannot be removed from the Rangers’ book via burial. With so little cap space, this could render the potential risk more than potential reward (unlike small-contract signings under the age of 35 who CAN be buried).</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> <b>Stephen Weiss</b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"> Another UFA via buyout, Weiss’s career has been in a tailspin since his time with the Florida Panthers where he notched 394 points in 654 games from ages 18 to 30. <i><u><a href="http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2013/12/23/5238848/stephen-weiss-injury-red-wings-sports-hernia" target="_blank">After a season-ending injury in 2013</a></u></i>, he never returned to his calibre after signing with the Detroit Red Wings that following summer. <i><u><a href="http://www.mlive.com/redwings/index.ssf/2014/12/red_wings_stephen_weiss_out_sa.html" target="_blank">His injury problems have lingered</a></u></i>, and questions of his remaining role in the NHL are rampant. Weiss, 32, would likely sign a relatively cheap 1-year deal with a team, should any team want him, to try and regain his previous form. Unlike expectations in Florida & Detroit, Weiss would clearly be expected to play sheltered minutes, likely playing between youngsters J.T. Miller, Emerson Etem, Jesper Fast and/or Kevin Hayes. </span></div>
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<ol class="ol1">
<li class="li2"><span class="s1"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Do the Rangers need to pursue a 3rd-or-4th-line forward specializing in penalty killing to fill Carl Haglein’s departure?</span></b></span></li>
</ol>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"> This is an interesting question… here’s why:</span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
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<span class="s1"> Hagelin (1:57 per game) was the Rangers’ premier winger to kill penalties, ranking just below Dominic Moore (2:07 per game) in shorthanded situations. Broadway finished 3rd in the East (and 6th in the league) in penalty killing, due in great part to Hagelin’s speedy defensive prowess. Etem, whom Hagelin was traded for last weekend, only averaged 0:27 of kill time per game. In other words, all else equal, that’s a full 90 seconds per game of “lost” kill time amongst forwards heading into July.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"> To exacerbate this deficit: we have to seriously wonder if Moore, who turns 35 next month, can sustain over 2 minutes per game effectively, let alone call on him to increase his kill time any additional time. So the case may very well be the Rangers needing to replace as much as 2 full minutes from forwards.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
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<span class="s1"> Does Broadway have options?</span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"> Enter: Jesper Fast, current restricted free agent whom cemented his regularity on the roster as a full-time NHL’er last season. Fast marveled in defensive roles, averaging 1:06 penalty killing time per game. And at the ripe age of 23, Fast is an ideal candidate to (realistically) play more penalty kills without causing detriment to the team. </span><br />
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<span class="s1"> So let’s say Fast’s PK time-per-game jumps a full minute (from 1:06 to 2:06, which would be 1 second less than that of Moore’s).</span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"> That still leaves (perhaps) a full 60 seconds of PK time per game to be sourced from somewhere.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"> Stepan & Nash averaged 1:35 & 1:20 per game respectively. Considering both play top minutes during even strength as well as power play, it seems unlikely they could have much more to give. </span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"> Tanner Glass played 1:01 per game, and could feasibly have his time increased in this capacity. But a full minute more? Doubtful.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
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<span class="s1"> This leaves Hayes (0:26), Zuccarello (0:22) & Brassard (0:14) as other PK’ers… of which are also unlikely to make effective jumps.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"> So the real question is: how much will the current Rangers supplement Hagelin’s departure & Moore’s aging downslope?</span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"> If the Rangers believe the deficit can be reduced to only 30 seconds of time missing, it won’t be a huge priority to seek assistance on the market. Conversely, if the Rangers are counting on a depth signing to make a relevant impact… the names of potential 3rd line centers we mentioned above may be pursued in order of PK ability. (Riley Nash with perhaps the most valuable PK skill set, playing 1:41 per game… and Brad Richards with the least valuable PK skill set, logging only 1 second on the kill per game).</span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b><i><span class="s1"></span>Conclusion</i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><i style="font-weight: bold;"> </i>These 3 questions will be answered, one way or another, this summer. If Broadway makes a trade, say an exodus of Kevin Klein ($2.9 million per year cap hit) or Tanner Glass ($1.45 million per year cap hit)... that should indicate a potential change in cap space, let alone whatever the return should indicate. If the Rangers pursue a free agent center, it could indicate an insurance policy should Oscar Lindberg not be able to handle 3rd line minutes in October (though it would definitely indicate intent to place Hayes back on the wing). And finally, the franchise's faith in stepping up its penalty-killing depth amongst forwards (again, hedging against Lindberg's hit-or-miss role) should tell us how badly it views Hagelin's absence for shorthanded scenarios.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"> Personally, I suspect a quiet off-season for New York, without any more trades or "big" names entering our headlines. However, given the topics we've discussed, there'll major team logic to infer from even the depthiest of depth signings. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"> Let free agency begin!</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> </span></div>
S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-27449216919279018082015-06-29T12:17:00.006-07:002015-06-29T14:04:59.078-07:00List of Unrestricted Free Agents whom are eligible for Performance Bonuses<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span class="s1"> As we’ve <b><i><a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015/06/how-bonuses-retained-salary-affect-big.html" target="_blank">written about previously</a></i></b>, the current status of many NHL teams is that of limited maneuverability; teams like Chicago, Los Angeles & the Rangers find themselves tightly pinned against the NHL salary cap (set at $71.4 million for next season). Thus, there’s all the reason in the world to believe some teams may pursue free agency with the specific target of performance-bonus levied contracts.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> <i><span style="font-size: large;">What are performance bonuses?</span></i></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Based on determined goals and accolades, a player can earn X dollars for accomplishing various objectives.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> <span style="font-size: large;"><i>The beauty?</i></span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Performance bonuses are under an umbrella from any effect on a team’s cap hit… so long as a team doesn’t pay out performance bonuses that exceed 7.5% of the salary cap.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> <i><span style="font-size: large;">In English?</span></i></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Any team can dole out up to $5,355,000 in performance bonuses next season without any ramification against the salary cap.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> <i><span style="font-size: large;">Therefore?</span></i></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Teams like Chicago, Los Angeles & Broadway may be especially apt to seek out such contracts, in order to fill out remaining roster deficits at a maximally economic bang-for-buck.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> <i><span style="font-size: large;">What’s the catch?</span></i></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> There’s only 3 situations where a player can receive a contract with performance bonuses. They are…</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">If the player signing the contract is at least 35 years of age</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">If the player signing the contract is signing his 1st ever (entry-level) NHL contract</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">If the player signing the contract is an established NHL player, but is signing a contract after a significantly long absence from the league due to injury</span></li>
</ul>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSTDwEK8fifdCJikOaBB-FXrS2Iypdbp2FglolXw9ABmbXjLGQTd4zggUbEtPVKZfMysYv53FUuBLv6uxDlXgVM-bdXDV4PPUl1f-p39g0lVazYTN6owUvDsvus9O-p6ISy1-FLrFOR_E/s1600/martin_st_louis1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="486" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSTDwEK8fifdCJikOaBB-FXrS2Iypdbp2FglolXw9ABmbXjLGQTd4zggUbEtPVKZfMysYv53FUuBLv6uxDlXgVM-bdXDV4PPUl1f-p39g0lVazYTN6owUvDsvus9O-p6ISy1-FLrFOR_E/s640/martin_st_louis1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Look: teams don’t usually salivate when contemplating pursuit of free agents closer to age 70 than birth. However, given the aforementioned advantages of performance bonus eligible candidates, coupled with the current 2015 cap crunch league wide… this summer could be the best summer to be an elder free agent seeking employment for next season.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<br />
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> In order of oldest to youngest, here’s the complete list of players (scheduled to be Unrestricted Free Agents on Wednesday July 1st) who are eligible to receive cap-friendly performance bonuses this summer:</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhY5IDre7dg3OTBvccgSDvQXx2SxI8InFpVYiff7rz0Zju8ImRM_aRtp7r3nqTDXh4JYoHJlbMrQo3fJpExxpk2eTro-9FNkogyMxg73Ofopuloz6fWR9_nEqabGreSSeO_zUYMk9abo8Y/s1600/buyout+candidates.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="532" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhY5IDre7dg3OTBvccgSDvQXx2SxI8InFpVYiff7rz0Zju8ImRM_aRtp7r3nqTDXh4JYoHJlbMrQo3fJpExxpk2eTro-9FNkogyMxg73Ofopuloz6fWR9_nEqabGreSSeO_zUYMk9abo8Y/s640/buyout+candidates.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span><span class="s1"> Let's say a team must fill its 12th, 13th, & 14th forward spots. But, the team only has $1.8 million in cap room remaining.</span><br />
<span class="s1"><br /></span>
<span class="s1"> Without performance bonuses?</span><br />
<span class="s1"><br /></span>
<span class="s1"> How does Danny Carcillo, Matt Fraser & Riley Nash... each for $600,000/year... grab you?</span><br />
<span class="s1"><br /></span>
<span class="s1"> Yeah... us neither.</span><br />
<span class="s1"><br /></span>
<span class="s1"> <i>With </i>performance bonuses?</span><br />
<span class="s1"><br /></span>
<span class="s1"> How about Brad Richards, Matt Cullen & Erik Cole? In theory this trio could be paid the same $600,000/year respectively... yet a team like the Rangers could pack a total of $3 million in easily-attainable performance bonuses into these contracts, making them more realistic an idea.</span><br />
<span class="s1"><br /></span>
<span class="s1" style="font-size: large;"><b><i>Conclusion:</i></b></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> While this list doesn't exactly lend itself as a menu for a contending team's all-important puzzle piece from becoming oodles better than it already is... These skaters inherently hold an advantage against their lengthiness-in-the-tooth: all are available for cap-haven performance-bonus contracts that cap-strapped teams will likely contemplate next month.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> The NY Rangers, with only a few million in cap space to spend on a few remaining "depth" roster spots, find themselves as an ideal team to pursue at least one of these forwards.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> For better or worse.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-40849911485935767492015-06-27T09:18:00.001-07:002015-06-27T15:46:19.594-07:00Digesting the Hagelin, Talbot & Raanta trades<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRs_wNgUzSF0kFQC1gUafNfk9-ajtMSbtFIQcDYQ1wyer0Uia-D_3MDrZwT_y0Cyrh0dnIbj2bGOwkFCOLjYdbLVDOOMeDl_EicNDGjpM4pkLovNrD6W8fLAqaKC_C8HgjWxG7AObt3CY/s1600/talbot.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRs_wNgUzSF0kFQC1gUafNfk9-ajtMSbtFIQcDYQ1wyer0Uia-D_3MDrZwT_y0Cyrh0dnIbj2bGOwkFCOLjYdbLVDOOMeDl_EicNDGjpM4pkLovNrD6W8fLAqaKC_C8HgjWxG7AObt3CY/s400/talbot.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEYUn_Xh05QjzzJBuB_eqIOeiQjRk51Krw1_YzOaN9F_pMYZPt-92XfKHlHpptaoNuu7rQkErzNK2M2c3h6rVJgiFZ2eh1d8k8VEEMTQzI2wr2yWGXSb3I0w9lF0FB1kpb55M63xojawI/s1600/hagelin.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="222" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEYUn_Xh05QjzzJBuB_eqIOeiQjRk51Krw1_YzOaN9F_pMYZPt-92XfKHlHpptaoNuu7rQkErzNK2M2c3h6rVJgiFZ2eh1d8k8VEEMTQzI2wr2yWGXSb3I0w9lF0FB1kpb55M63xojawI/s400/hagelin.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<b style="font-size: x-large;"><i><u>Edit:</u> The NY Rangers have acquired goaltender Anttii Raanta in exchange for AHL forward Ryan Haggerty. Raanta has 1 year remaining on his contract, has a 2015-16 cap hit of $750,000. Thus, the cap savings on Talbot ($1.45m) vs Raanta ($0.75m) is $700,000 for New York.</i></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> While the exodus of Blueshirt fan-favorites Cam Talbot & Carl Haglein will leave many sad to see them go... it was the correct decision. We <b><i><a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015/06/how-714-million-nhl-salary-cap-affects.html" target="_blank">printed earlier</a></i></b> that the $71.4 million salary cap likely meant the demise of Talbot & one of Hagelin or Klein... the Rangers effectively made the cut, and now appear to be smoothly cap-compliant for next October.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> Yes, they will be shoppers on the free agent market come July; but most likely, only for depth players. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> What do the trades actually suggest? Maybe something like...</span></div>
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<b><br /></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>KREIDER ------------- STEPAN --------- FAST/ETEM/UFA?</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>ZUCCARELLO ---- BRASSARD ------ NASH</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>MILLER --------------- HAYES ---------- FAST/ETEM/UFA?</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>GLASS ---------------- MOORE ---------- FAST/ETEM/UFA?</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>McDONAGH ------ GIRARDI</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>STAAL ----------------- KLEIN</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>YANDLE/BOYLE/SKJEI</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>LUNDQVIST / RAANTA</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> The Rangers are confident Jesper Fast can replace Hagelin's minutes AND his tough, tough minutes as the team's premier penalty-killing winger.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> The Rangers were less inclined to trade Klein, possibly because he played 6 or 7 shifts per game more than that of Hagelin.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> Emerson Etem, the lone contract in return, is coming off his entry-level contract after just turning 23 years of age. The new CBA dictates his minimum qualifying offer must be 105% of his previous season's actual salary, which was $810,000 (despite his AAV cap hit being $870,000). </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> Thus, Etem's minimum qualifying offer will be $850,500. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: large;"> In contrast to Hagelin's minimum qaulifying offer of $2.4 million... Etem does NOT have arbitration rights, unlike that of Hagelin, thus the "net savings" on Etem's contract will likely be roughly $2 million less than that of Hagelin.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> Couple that exchange with Raanta, Talbot's replacement, being nearly half his predecessor's pay?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> Broadway made three economically sound moves today.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> In essence:</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-large;"><i> <b>Rangers traded Hagelin & a 7th Rounder for Etem, ~$2 million in cap savings, and an upgraded 2nd rounder.</b></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-large;"><i><b><br /></b></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: x-large;"><i><b> Rangers traded Talbot & Haggerty for a 2nd & 3rd Rounder, an upgraded 7th Rounder, and Antti Raanta.</b></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> Now the Rangers have more headroom to sign restricted free agent Derek Stepan to a multi-year deal north of $6 million per year. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> From this point in time, a 2015-16 NYR roster looks something like this: </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Or a long-term scope of today's trades could look something like this:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg7fGr6ZchZ0aDAS0xwnYI0b6Wvnk4KUy_Mkq2xCrpfr8nZaKMEJRkSgPkYAnVMbnOHtYfUKcoTLaNgMXi2Ex3Skai6UhSELQwXPPG1uIv-WrJQA_Cd0FAJ193SqgK3yfpTDa-TCC4PwM/s1600/RAANTACAPSIT.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg7fGr6ZchZ0aDAS0xwnYI0b6Wvnk4KUy_Mkq2xCrpfr8nZaKMEJRkSgPkYAnVMbnOHtYfUKcoTLaNgMXi2Ex3Skai6UhSELQwXPPG1uIv-WrJQA_Cd0FAJ193SqgK3yfpTDa-TCC4PwM/s640/RAANTACAPSIT.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">In terms of last season's roles, the Rangers might be counting on '16 Fast to replace '15 Hagelin, and for '16 Etem to replace '15 Fast. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"> Remember: the Rangers stand to have anywhere from $2.5 to $4.5 million in performance bonuses to hand out this summer, so a low-cap hit signing could be bonus-heavy and thus be someone like Brad Richards.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"> As for the Talbot return? </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"> <b><i><a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015/06/top-10-realistic-cam-talbot-trades.html" target="_blank">We speculated</a></i></b> Talbot's perceived value being somewhere from the equivalency of a late 1st rounder to that of a 2nd rounder. It was obviously the latter, as Talbot+7th for 2nd+3rd+7th suggests Talbot treated as a premium 2nd round asset.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"> Talbot worth a 2nd rounder?</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"> That's <a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015/03/cam-talbots-trade-value-2015-goalie.html" target="_blank">just what we assessed in our first Talbot offseason value article</a> back in March.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"> In any event, Sather has cut the required pesos to get his team immediately in a position to be snugly under the 2015-16 salary cap. It's always sad to see homegrown Rangers, who've performed so admirably over the years, as Hagelin & Talbot have. But the NHL is a business, Sather is a businessman, and today he did what was truly best for business.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-79364336584177049662015-06-26T04:36:00.000-07:002015-06-26T05:48:53.006-07:00Talbot Trade Tinkering: Final Edition<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span class="s1"> We’ve written a lot about Rangers understudy goaltender Cam Talbot on this blog over the months. With the NHL Draft beginning tonight, and Talbot’s trade highly likely, I thought we’d submit one more piece pertinent to Talbot.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> In our March 5th article <b><a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015_03_05_archive.html" target="_blank"><i>Sather’s Busy Summer</i></a>,</b> we vaguely speculated whether Talbot would be cost-cutting tradebait come the offseason.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> In our March 20th article <b><i><a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015_03_20_archive.html" target="_blank">Cam Talbot’s Value & The 2015 Goalie Market</a></i></b>, we were the first to break down the looming probability of Talbot’s worth in a trade. It was easy to conclude that Buffalo, Calgary, Edmonton & San Jose would be the logical suitors of Talbot’s reception. </span></div>
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<span class="s1"> A week ago we listed the <b><i><a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015_06_19_archive.html" target="_blank">Top 10 (Realistic) Cam Talbot Trades</a></i></b> during draft weekend, speculative of how valuable an asset Talbot would be to the highest bidder.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> On Wednesday we suggested Talbot’s expulsion was inevitable, as the NY Rangers<b><i><a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015_06_24_archive.html" target="_blank"> will need to cut Talbot, and at least one additional Ranger</a></i></b>, to adjust to the $71.4 million salary cap next season.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Today I’d like to briefly suggest some alternative possibilities of return via trading Talbot. While budgetary reduction will be a paramount priority for Broadway this summer, it doesn’t completely rule out the idea of acquiring cheaply-contracted bodies in the looming Talbot deal.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> So what about a Talbot trade involving….?</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;"><u>Chad Johnson (Buffalo Sabres)</u></span></b></div>
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<span class="s1"> Similar goalie to Talbot in the sense of contract and history as the Rangers backup. Johnson has one year remaining in his contract ($1.3 mil cap hit) before Unrestricted Free Agency in July 2016, also like Talbot. A bodily exchange of Johnson for Talbot alone would only be a net cap hit savings of $150,000 for the Rangers (they need to cut 10 times that this summer). However, if Johnson’s salary were to be retained by Buffalo, the “cap savings” for the Rangers could range from $150,000 to $800,000. Johnson has backed up 3 different NHL teams in the past 3 years (Arizona, Boston & Islanders) racking up 50 NHL games since leaving the Rangers organization in 2012. Johnson recently turned 29 years old.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"><b> <u>Joni Ortio (Calgary Flames)</u></b></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Calgary’s 3rd string, AHL-starting goalie, who’s been <a href="http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=768608" target="_blank"><i><b>making a lot of noise</b></i></a> about capability to transition into the big league. Ortio has played 97 AHL games with the Flames’ affiliate minor league team, and played 6 NHL games this past season. If Calgary is apt to acquire Talbot, having he and Jonas Hiller as a tandem next season… that would leave the 24-year-old Finnish goalkeeper looking for a new franchise with more opportunity. With goalie prospects Mac Skapski, Brandon Halverson & Igor Shesterkin are 3 or 4 years younger than Orito, it would give New York an immediate option to backup Lundqvist in October, while allowing the pipeline prospects to continue to develop below. Ortio's cap hit clocks in at $600,000; attractive to a team like the Rangers as it's only $25,000 above the league minimum.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> <b><u><span style="font-size: large;">Oscar Klefbom - Edmonton Oilers</span></u></b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Edmonton’s Swedish prospective defenseman whom has played 77 NHL games despite being 21 years of age. More impressively, Klefbom averaged 21 minutes per game for the dreary Oilers last season, impressing the hockey community with his tremendous upside. Klefbom is on the final year of his entry-level contract, which carries a meek $894,167 cap hit (with up to $350,000 in performance bonuses). If Broadway is looking to cut salary, and perhaps include Kevin Klein in a deal… Klefbom for Klein would save the Rangers just north of $2 million in cap savings next season. With a rich crop of budding NHL defensemen, including Martin Marincin (23) & Darnell Nurse (20)… Edmonton could be subject to unloading one of their bullion bluechips at a shot in acquiring a potential franchise goalie in Talbot.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b><u><span style="font-size: large;">Nail Yakupov - Edmonton Oilers</span></u></b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> The former #1 overall pick in 2012, Yakupov is signed for 2 more seasons at $2.5 million per season. Should the Oilers retain more than 42% of Yakupov’s salary, a straight-up swap for Talbot would be a payroll cut for the Rangers. But for more materialistic speculation, consider these subjective nuggets of thought:</span></div>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1">To Rangers fans, Yakupov trade rumors have a reminiscent feel to that of a former “Glen-Sather-reclaimation-project” in that of Nik Zherdev. Yakupov has hardly smashed the league with goal-scoring since his debut (42 goals in 192 games), yet was clearly taken #1 overall for his offensive potential. Should Carl Hagelin be cut from Broadway for salary reasons, Yakupov would be a perfect fit for New York’s 3rd line.</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Even more of an “out there” train of thought: the Rangers have not had a Russian-born NY Ranger since the days of Fedor Tyutin (who was coincidentally sent to Columbus for Zherdev). Is that relevant? Probably not. Except: If the Rangers want to woo European prospect Pavel Buchnevich to North America next season, having one of the highest-touted Russian youngsters in the lockerroom certainly couldn’t hurt. Buchnevich cited his English was extremely poor, so there’s probably not much allure to a franchise full of folks who don’t speak the language. Remember how Sergei Gonchar acted as a translator for Evgeni Malkin in his rookie year? If attempting to persuade Buchnevich to come to Rome, besides money, it could be an additional boon in having young Yakupov.</span></li>
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<span class="s1"> If the NY Rangers can’t get what they want in 2015 draft picks, probably due to a miscommunication of Talbot’s specific value in terms of picks… another option is acquiring 2015 picks instead. Why?</span></div>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1">As we showed in our article <a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015_06_18_archive.html" target="_blank">about the historic measurements of trading draft picks</a>, it seems teams are willing to “gamble” on picks’ particular worth when trading Year 1 pick(s) for Year 2 pick(s). Why would this happen? If two parties are at a mutual disagreement of both assigning value AND where their team will finish next season in the standings? It presents itself as a mutually amicable atmosphere for a now-for-later draft pick swap.</span></li>
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<span class="s1"> If the Edmonton Oilers believe they will be a contending team in 2015-16, but don’t think Talbot is worth the #16 overall pick tonight… and simultaneously, New York believes Edmonton will flop once again next season, and believe Talbot IS worth such a pick… why not trade Talbot for Edmonton’s 2015 1st Round Pick? In this example, Edmonton would think it was giving New York a pick worse than #16, while New York thought it could very well be a BETTER pick. If two teams come to a conflicting conclusion, trading for more uncertain picks in a year can be a practical course of action.</span></div>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Additionally, the NY Rangers could use the 2016 Draft Pick(s) acquired as an arsenal of exportable assets come the 2016 Trade Deadline. If New York finds itself in another successful season, looking to beef up for another deep playoff run, the Rangers offering draft picks to deadline sellers could be a great way of procuring reenforcement come March. </span></li>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><b> Conclusion</b></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> We’ll wait and see how Talbot’s fate plays out as the draft kicks off this evening. With the NY Rangers looking to cut $1.5 to $2 million in theoretical salary cap this summer, the Talbot trade could be an indicator of future moves. Should New York liquidate Talbot for draft picks and non-NHL prospects, we see a significant portion of necessary payroll has been cut, and trimming the rest could be very minor. However, if a equal-or-greater contract is returned, it signals Sather will be inclined to make bigger moves in the coming months to ultimately get a cap-compliant roster.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Get the popcorn out folks, its NHL Draft Weekend.</span></div>
S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-23708096764653090062015-06-24T07:07:00.000-07:002015-06-24T07:10:08.187-07:00How The $71.4 million NHL Salary Cap Affects the NYR OffSeason<div class="p1">
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<span class="s1"> NHL General Managers, NHL players, their agents, and the entire hockey blogosphere have learned the 2015-16 salary cap will be $71.4 million. </span>If you’re viewing this blog, then chances are you’re at least a tad bit curious as to the obvious question: How will this affect the New York Rangers?</div>
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<span class="s1"> The first priority remains the same as our previous weeks of articles: the Rangers must reduce their payroll this summer in order to comply by October 1st. </span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Here’s a look at the NY Rangers cap payroll for the 2015-16 season:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1l5yMoRJ5_ohbi7Ufl-vlsj9BoIJLXr6Ddg1PQld0-mHNn8nZ5CNNEXbMnW-zczHzwNf64EuX8L1pLleOM8mAeyHbTgfJTn3dedOOEMK4YQSUzRu8XWXIOMxlKPKScd-_ttBzp5bXjF8/s1600/BACON001.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1l5yMoRJ5_ohbi7Ufl-vlsj9BoIJLXr6Ddg1PQld0-mHNn8nZ5CNNEXbMnW-zczHzwNf64EuX8L1pLleOM8mAeyHbTgfJTn3dedOOEMK4YQSUzRu8XWXIOMxlKPKScd-_ttBzp5bXjF8/s640/BACON001.png" width="296" /></a></div>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">The contracts in purple indicate that player is a Restricted Free Agent this summer, and the figure in purple is the minimally realistic prediction as to what they could sign for on a 1-year deal.</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">The contracts in grey indicate that player’s contract is on the books, thus NOT a free agent.</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">The contracts in blue indicate the 2015-16 NHL minimum age as a theoretical cap hit for whatever depth players the Rangers sign this summer. In this instance, the extra skaters are all conservatively presumed to have minimum-wage ($575k/yr) deals.</span></li>
</ul>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Here we see the team looks to be a few million short of being cap-compliant. And this graph represents best-case scenarios for the Restricted Free Agents re-signing at the realistically cheapest 1-year contracts.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: large;"><b><i><span class="s1"></span><br /></i></b></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: large;"><b><i> At best, the Rangers are a little less than $2 million over the salary cap this summer, in our extremely conservative estimations.</i></b></span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> So where to cut? Hmmm…</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><i><u>CAM TALBOT</u></i></span></b></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBP7B6wqRJ8eMhGEN-uh6mzFAOnyb5PkTirt2KOWre_F3qufniFvDZfpxQm-4Qdp3lbZtC3Q3Xosc6RZz2ynkKHeeoEG0aIcm_mPtMttkrmnTrnxOQpX6s3pbIwxUQh82nDlpM_imqi1k/s1600/cd0ymzcznguwzdbhnduynddiytjhm2yyzthlmtjjotqwyyznptq5mtk2zduwm2i4nzi4nwrlyti0ota3yja3yzuxnzhl.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBP7B6wqRJ8eMhGEN-uh6mzFAOnyb5PkTirt2KOWre_F3qufniFvDZfpxQm-4Qdp3lbZtC3Q3Xosc6RZz2ynkKHeeoEG0aIcm_mPtMttkrmnTrnxOQpX6s3pbIwxUQh82nDlpM_imqi1k/s640/cd0ymzcznguwzdbhnduynddiytjhm2yyzthlmtjjotqwyyznptq5mtk2zduwm2i4nzi4nwrlyti0ota3yja3yzuxnzhl.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div>
<ul class="ul2">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Exporting Talbot in a trade, and ultimately replacing him with a lesser salary, is the easiest (and as of late, trendiest) means to reduce overall payroll.Trading Talbot away, and ultimately replacing him with that of a, say, $645,000/year goalie… would be a $800,000 reduction on the team’s books.</span></li>
</ul>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><i><u>DEREK STEPAN</u></i></span></b></div>
<div class="p1">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIsVvXcwKpsYk47PD2xGTQRqfizORySUAhPwgTb7iRZ_u9Q9XuK-kxfq4VxyRPKLiUbN6lCbF6TTW_FiTuCdyZVDgnncUgkcX6MZieiG7F4N2P3EHjTVqWtEXbkPBQPUXnteVMUSFvtwc/s1600/105123137.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIsVvXcwKpsYk47PD2xGTQRqfizORySUAhPwgTb7iRZ_u9Q9XuK-kxfq4VxyRPKLiUbN6lCbF6TTW_FiTuCdyZVDgnncUgkcX6MZieiG7F4N2P3EHjTVqWtEXbkPBQPUXnteVMUSFvtwc/s640/105123137.jpg" width="640" /></a><b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><i><u><br /></u></i></span></b></div>
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<ul class="ul2">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">In a 1-year contract, we predict Stepan to sign for no less than $6 million. </span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">A multi-year contract would likely range from $6 mil to $7 mil.</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">The most similar comparable to ascertaining Stepan’s theoretical value this summer is that of Ryan O’Reilly in Colorado… O’Reilly signed a 2-year $12 million contract shortly before an arbitration hearing was scheduled.</span></li>
</ul>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Our prediction for Stepan’s year-to-year rate is something like:</span></div>
<ul class="ul2">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">1 years: $6.000000 / year ($06,000,000)</span></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">2 years: $6.200000 / year ($12,400,000)</span></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">3 years: $6.333333 / year ($17,999,999)</span></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">4 years: $6.500000 / year ($26,000,000)</span></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">5 years: $6.700000 / year ($33,500,000)</span></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">6 years: $6.900000 / year ($41,400,000)</span></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">7 years: $7.142857 / year ($49,999,999)</span></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">8 years: $7.125000 / year ($57,000,000)</span></span></li>
</ul>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Stepan is an extremely vital asset for Broadway, serving as their wonderfully productive 1st Line Center. Unless traded within the window, there’s two more seasons of Derek to play as a New York Ranger before entering Unrestricted Free Agency. </span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Sather could take the 1-year discount, delaying the probable payday contract to Stepan until next summer… although Stepan’s pricetag could easily (and likely) be higher during this time next summer. </span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Let’s hold off on figuring a course-of-action for signing Stepan until we can appreciate what assets on the team may be more expendable than the team’s #1 center. </span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><i><u>CARL HAGELIN</u></i></span></b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEbEhnFzAAKDJ9b2OPtzmSu1kxSykWU8z0swcCXTGW44pHMkI-BYXW3t7VwuVq5wYCkLzjBugSmZdklW9PEM8uyX0xOixzvYgm6EfUt0-kMNSRGqnAQCqdDtyq-Q2fZnP72Zyw6OuoY7E/s1600/carl-hagelin.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEbEhnFzAAKDJ9b2OPtzmSu1kxSykWU8z0swcCXTGW44pHMkI-BYXW3t7VwuVq5wYCkLzjBugSmZdklW9PEM8uyX0xOixzvYgm6EfUt0-kMNSRGqnAQCqdDtyq-Q2fZnP72Zyw6OuoY7E/s640/carl-hagelin.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="p1">
<b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><i><u><br /></u></i></span></b></div>
<ul class="ul2">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">With Restricted Free Agency, Hagelin may be headed to NHL salary arbitration next month, if he and his team cannot hash out an amicable agreement beforehand.</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Parallel to last summer’s arbitration decision for that of Vladimir Sobotka (in St. Louis)… we feel a 1-year $2.8 million contract is roughly what Hagelin could/should/would be awarded.</span></li>
</ul>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Should the Rangers and Hagelin agree long-term? Our prediction for Hagelin’s year-to-year rate is something like:</span></div>
<ul class="ul2">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">1 years: $2,800,000 / year ($02,800,000)</span></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">2 years: $3,000,000 / year ($06,000,000)</span></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">3 years: $3,333,333 / year ($09,999,999)</span></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">4 years: $3,500,000 / year ($14,000,000)</span></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">5 years: $3,600,000 / year ($18,000,000)</span></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">6 years: $3,750,000 / year ($22,500,000)</span></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">7 years: $3,642,857 / year ($24,499,999)</span></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">8 years: $3,625,000 / year ($29,000,000)</span></span></li>
</ul>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b><u><i>STEPAN vs HAGELIN?</i></u></b></span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> This duo represent the the lone pair of NYR Restricted Free Agents to a) have the right of salary arbitration, b) make the most money of any of the other RFA’s, and c) be only two years removed from Unrestricted Free Agency.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><i>WHICH DESERVES A LONG-TERM DEAL MORE?</i></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> The answer, almost irrefutably, is Stepan. He is a #1 center, is a coveted asset to any NHL franchise. A cornerstone center, at the young age of 25, is expected to make $6 or $7 million on a long-term contract.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> As for Hagelin? Two things to note when pondering his gravity of Broadway’s cap structure:</span></div>
<ul class="ul2">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">A) Hagelin is a 3rd line winger, with the upside attribute of being a phenomenal penalty killer. </span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">B) Perhaps Hagelin’s most valuable attribute to his contribution to an NHL team is his speed. Yet Hagelin, who turns 27 years old in August, will likely be losing pepper off his footwork fastball.</span></li>
</ul>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> In other words, what do you think is the easiest roster change to “correct or “replace” for cheaper money? A $6 million center who plays 19 minutes per game, or a $2.8 million winger who plays 15 minutes per game?</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><b><u><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i>JESPER FAST (24), J.T. MILLER (23) & OSCAR LINDBERG (24)</i></span></u></b></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><b><u><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></span></u></b></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7kVqiD56RXXTbC5kpItVaEV0oi2FePYBcBlJH1otmDran3njjAhADdZCWVTyj9ABUKRe1jVcGgapsecWz6oMG_Ix_pzNwHY2HflYqjRA0LlCWjHsbuvk_8EYWPRPuKvgN-t1orv8P4_U/s1600/fdagfnsd.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7kVqiD56RXXTbC5kpItVaEV0oi2FePYBcBlJH1otmDran3njjAhADdZCWVTyj9ABUKRe1jVcGgapsecWz6oMG_Ix_pzNwHY2HflYqjRA0LlCWjHsbuvk_8EYWPRPuKvgN-t1orv8P4_U/s640/fdagfnsd.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><b><u><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i><br /></i></span></u></b></span></div>
<ul class="ul2">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">All three forwards are Restricted Free Agents without the right to salary arbitration</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">We predict Miller’s 1-year extension rate is $50,000 more expensive than Fast’s, despite Miller’s minimum qualifying offer being $100,000 greater than that of Miller’s</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Lindberg, who had a wonderful season in the American Hockey League last season, is fully expected to make the jump to the NHL next year. His qualifying offer is few thousand less than his projected 1-year minimum cost of $725,000</span></li>
</ul>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> With all the trade rumors surround Cam Talbot, why don’t we hear too much about any of these assets being included in a packaged trade?</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Because with the trio reasonably projected to make less than $1 million/year on respective 1-year deals… it does not seem an aspect where Broadway can be in a position to “cut the fat.” In other words, what forwards could be returned in a trade which would replace the roles of Fast/Miller/Lindberg while accounting for lesser money? </span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> It seems highly unlikely.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> So…</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Let’s assume Cam Talbot is traded somewhere for draft pick(s) and/or prospect(s). And let’s also assume that the Rangers replace his role as Backup Goalie with an Unrestricted Free Agent signing this summer, of whom signs for 1-yr $575,000 (the NHL minimum wage).</span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
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<span class="s1"> How does this change things?</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicKi9wmAOI1_3zMrm_5dx_3N4hZpTyRY-RlpyZ-cbz-A_qqlgANgdR8xPPqdyk1YRqKGi-bf2CrtH0RgaQSw3XbNJMUx0dtmw8R7qrWKRgBgEeOAyo0g6WlUGjx2TcsFWOOYwmbWitc-g/s1600/bacon002.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicKi9wmAOI1_3zMrm_5dx_3N4hZpTyRY-RlpyZ-cbz-A_qqlgANgdR8xPPqdyk1YRqKGi-bf2CrtH0RgaQSw3XbNJMUx0dtmw8R7qrWKRgBgEeOAyo0g6WlUGjx2TcsFWOOYwmbWitc-g/s640/bacon002.png" width="296" /></a></div>
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<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> So even if all four RFA’s are signed for the most realistically stingy 1-year contracts… and even if Talbot is traded and replaced with a goalie of minimal cost… we see the team remains $275,000 over the cap.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Not to mention, having the 21st, 22nd & 23rd roster spots all at the NHL minimum wage is a stretch for this example as well. </span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> So…?</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> <span style="font-size: large;"> <i><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;"><b>Talbot cannot be the only Ranger to be exported this offseason.</b></span></i> </span></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> </span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> There must be at least one other NY Ranger to be exiled, and replaced with a cheaper substitute, for the team to render itself cap compliant.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Before we finish, let’s just remind ourselves of which NY Rangers have No-Trade and/or No-move Clauses this summer, making them the peskiest players to attempt to move?</span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
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<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> So while there is a lot of salary cap meat-on-the-bone with this list of NY Rangers… it would seem especially cumbersome to orchestrate a trade involving any one of them. Particularly packaging someone in a Talbot trade to either Edmonton or Buffalo, where one of these players’ approval of such a trade would seem even less likely. </span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> So…</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> What about the Rangers under contract with the highest cap hits whom are without any NM or NT clauses?</span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
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<span class="s1"> What can we conclude?</span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> <b><i><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace;">As we’ve proposed multiple times on this blog, the seemingly most “replaceable” players to dump are Carl Hagelin and/or Kevin Klein.</span></i></b></span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Both have theoretical salary caps just south of $3 million, while their respective roles are that of 3rd line wing & 3rd pair defense. </span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> McDonagh’s cap hit of $4.7 million is a bargain, considering the Captain’s role on the team.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Stepan, Kreider & Yandle are all being paid “fairly”, given their respective roles (and Power Play capability).</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Any trade involving Kreider, McDonagh, Stepan, and/or Yandle would be as big a summer surprise as it is (at the moment) highly unlikely.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgD38Q3povrhKW3OLlKcgELIkcVE_jOiYfnrqu2aUQcosJ0tvkcni8-ZgPc9d2xjIBn-U_LazGl60PRw3lDtKfKp7x2bwZXYSpz6avFpY7vxmTof2myJBGKtF60jUlpjWBWrB2vMMNkDmc/s1600/Kevin_Klein.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgD38Q3povrhKW3OLlKcgELIkcVE_jOiYfnrqu2aUQcosJ0tvkcni8-ZgPc9d2xjIBn-U_LazGl60PRw3lDtKfKp7x2bwZXYSpz6avFpY7vxmTof2myJBGKtF60jUlpjWBWrB2vMMNkDmc/s640/Kevin_Klein.jpg" width="582" /></a></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Thus, now we see why Kevin Klein & Carl Hagelin have been the most frequent throw-in Rangers skaters mumbled amidst the weeks of Talbot trade rumors. Neither player is a toxic asset (actually both have done very well as Rangers, and would not be traded due to poor performance or sour reputation). Yet when looking for a soul to shed some salary, Hagelin & Klein are the “likeliest” suitors.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> So we will examine two different scenarios:</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><b><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><u>SCENARIO A</u>:</span></b></span></div>
<ul class="ul2">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Trade Cam Talbot & Kevin Klein for draft pick(s) and/or prospect(s)</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Sign Derek Stepan to a long-term deal worth $6.6 mil/yr [which we predict would be a four or five year deal]</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Sign Carl Hagelin to a 1-year, $2.8 mil deal</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Sign J.T. Miller to a 2-year, $1.2 mil/yr deal</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Sign Jesper Fast to a 2-year, $975k/yr deal</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Sign Oscar Lindberg to a 2-year, $800k/yr deal</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Sign a 7th D, such as Matt Hunwick, to a 2-year, $875k/yr deal</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Assume Brady Skjei will be NHL-ready for duties on the Broadway’s 3rd defensive pair</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Sign a backup goalie to a 1-year, $700k deal ($125k more than the league minimum)</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Sign a 13th “spare” forward to 1-year, $675k deal ($100k more than the league minimum)</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Sign a 14th “spare” forward to a 1-year, $650k deal ($75k more than the league minimum)</span></li>
</ul>
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<br /></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKsZc6BzAlpno5uKobObhuPZipzJnxOCb_nw6Vi9jMjtAJVwqvAs7illLai2FYW3KPbo_F0L6SC-lKLVKLbMiNx67BaHUe1UoMbzyXIyrRBSaJ7S_gVlREFlkTEtIu6e2Y6XwvBs_y5D4/s1600/BACOON005.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKsZc6BzAlpno5uKobObhuPZipzJnxOCb_nw6Vi9jMjtAJVwqvAs7illLai2FYW3KPbo_F0L6SC-lKLVKLbMiNx67BaHUe1UoMbzyXIyrRBSaJ7S_gVlREFlkTEtIu6e2Y6XwvBs_y5D4/s640/BACOON005.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="p2">
<br /></div>
<ul class="ul2">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Interestingly enough, we assume if Klein is moved, that the services of Matt Hunwick (hypothetically signed for a 2-year, $875k contract) and rookie Brady Skjei will be enough “in-house” promotion to replace Klein’s role. </span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">To do this, the Rangers must accommodate a seven defensemen with only two Right-handed pointmen. If this is the case, why don’t we slide McDonagh to the right point? He played well at the 2014 Winter Olympics in the off-hand position of RD. </span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">This also frees up enough cap space to sign RFA’s Fast, Lindberg, Miller & Stepan to multi-year “bridge” deals.</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">We can also beef up the 2nd goalie, as well as 13th & 14th “spare” forwards respective cap hits, to a few notches above the league minimum.</span></li>
</ul>
<div>
<i><b><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: large;"> Scenario A brings us to a 23-man roster snugly beneath the ceiling with $50,000 in cap space.</span></b></i></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
- Talbot is replaced by a free agent for approximately half of Talbot's 2015-16 salary</div>
<div>
- Klein is replaced by a combination of Skjei & Hunwick</div>
<div>
- Martin St. Louis is replaced by the promotion of Oscar Lindberg</div>
<div>
- James Sheppard & Chris Mueller are replaced by a $675k free agent & $650k free agent respectively</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<b><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span class="s1"></span></span></i></b></div>
<div class="p1">
<b><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><u>SCENARIO B</u>:</span></b></div>
<ul class="ul2">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Trade Cam Talbot & Carl Hagelin for draft pick(s) and/or prospect(s)</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Sign Derek Stepan to a 1-year contract </span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Sign J.T. Miller to a 2-year, $1.25 mil/yr deal</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Sign Jesper Fast to a 2-year, $975k/yr deal</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Sign Oscar Lindberg to a 2-year, $800k/yr deal</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Sign a 7th defenseman to a 1-year, $800k deal</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Sign a backup goalie to a 1-year, $725k deal ($125k more than the league minimum)</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Sign a 13th “spare” forward to 1-year, $675k deal ($100k more than the league minimum)</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Sign a 14th “spare” forward to a 1-year, $600k deal ($25k more than the league minimum)</span></li>
</ul>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwHHmrLfdZ00L_OHGh-NJ4PJb7uHn69B75M9B8sGdG-YyYY9eQIWYZ-TgY4ec7sCLiiyV6_Zi2xNdlqNe-lhZPdZ9_SLm-p-5ChaS9amkJPkaP45F4ZAwyy8nCd7oFI7ziKdU91UjZ9S8/s1600/bacon0006.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="478" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwHHmrLfdZ00L_OHGh-NJ4PJb7uHn69B75M9B8sGdG-YyYY9eQIWYZ-TgY4ec7sCLiiyV6_Zi2xNdlqNe-lhZPdZ9_SLm-p-5ChaS9amkJPkaP45F4ZAwyy8nCd7oFI7ziKdU91UjZ9S8/s640/bacon0006.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div>
- Talbot is replaced by a free agent for approximately half of Talbot's 2015-16 salary</div>
<div>
- Hagelin is theoretically replaced by Fast</div>
<div>
- Hayes switches to wing, while his 3rd center roster spot is replaced by a $1.5 million free agent</div>
<div>
- Martin St. Louis is replaced by the promotion of Oscar Lindberg</div>
<div>
- James Sheppard & Chris Mueller are replaced by a $675k free agent & $600k free agent respectively</div>
<div>
- Matt Hunwick is either brought back for, or replaced by, a $800k free agent defenseman</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<i><b><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: large;">Scenario B brings us to a 23-man roster snugly beneath the ceiling with $25,000 in cap space.</span></b></i></div>
<div class="p2">
<i><b><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: large;"><br /></span></b></i></div>
<div class="p2">
*Important Note: While the sum of $1.5 million for pursuing a 3rd line winger or defenseman seems awfully underwhelming, the NY Rangers will have as much as $2,505,000 available in performance bonuses to dish out this summer while remaining below the bonus cushion. Should the Rangers wish to "gamble," and assume Kevin Hayes will not activate his maximum potential bonus amount of $2.85 million, the Rangers could theoretically dish out $3 or $4 million in bonuses this summer and still not break the cushion. Thus, a $1.5 million 3rd line forward could actually be compensated $2.5 - $4.5 million in cap-haven performance bonuses, attracting the highest quality of forwards willing to sign on for a 3rd line role.</div>
<div class="p2">
<br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<b><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><i>Conclusion</i></span></b></div>
<div class="p2">
<br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> These two scenarios seem to be the likeliest ones for a vague picture of the Rangers' team come October. Neither involve trades which tinker with the nucleus of role players pivotal to the team's chances at a Stanley Cup. Simply put: Hagelin, Klein & Talbot will be missed, but not irreplaceably so. </span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> There's no reason to think a trade involving Lundqvist, Nash, McDonagh, Staal or Girardi will take place this summer. If not for the unlikely possibility of any of these players waiving there NMC/NTC's, the simple fact that Scenarios A & B demonstrate there should be ZERO pressure at all for Glen Sather to make such a deal.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Yes, the Rangers need to cut salary. Aptly put, the roster will require metaphorical off-season surgery. Yet while the deportation and replacement of Hagelin, Klein and/or Talbot represent minor surgeries like wisdom teeth removal or laser-eye... why in the world would Broadway go a few steps further and voluntarily engage in open-heart surgery by way of dealing Lundqvist, Nash, Stepan, McDonagh, Staal or Girardi?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> This is not a team looking to make huge adjustments after a largely disappointing 2014-15 season. The team won the President's Trophy, was a viable threat until the end, and was 20 minutes away from their 2nd consecutive Stanley Cup Final. Unlike teams like Colorado, Dallas or Toronto... this is not a team with political carte blanche to rewire all aspects of the roster.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<i><b><span style="font-family: Courier New, Courier, monospace; font-size: large;"> This is a team that should be considerably more apt to trim around the edges than rebuild its central configuration.</span></b></i></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> It doesn't make much sense for the Rangers to move the big pieces... at least not quite yet.</span></div>
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S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-19091620512967946582015-06-21T16:20:00.003-07:002015-06-21T16:39:23.690-07:00Battle of the Hudson: Rangers vs Devils in NHL Drafting<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: large; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Glen vs. Lou</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>Comparing Draft History from 2000-2011</i></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnoof92dRAT4aRlkKtm7olvH-kzer8RCdiTBOrjX-TAWyecQnM9d2_XW5DY9F0M4oebKv6rrRF83JD5i1cyAXCWLYpAMPPQfUu-v_YoVIqyz7XsB3inreDJXONOc1WUbJvAJVPgrIUg3Y/s1600/2008_NHL_Entry_Draft_Stage.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnoof92dRAT4aRlkKtm7olvH-kzer8RCdiTBOrjX-TAWyecQnM9d2_XW5DY9F0M4oebKv6rrRF83JD5i1cyAXCWLYpAMPPQfUu-v_YoVIqyz7XsB3inreDJXONOc1WUbJvAJVPgrIUg3Y/s640/2008_NHL_Entry_Draft_Stage.JPG" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div>
<b id="docs-internal-guid-53068bdb-1861-256c-ccde-c52d143fb20b" style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b>
<br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> With the upcoming 2015 Entry-Draft less than a week away, and with </span><a href="http://nypost.com/2015/06/05/glen-sather-considers-stepping-down-as-rangers-gm/" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">rumors that Glen Sather may be leaving the New York Rangers</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> soon, we thought we’d take a look at Sather’s drafting history with the club. Since 2000, Glen has been at the helm, finding gems in later rounds (<a href="http://nypost.com/2014/06/02/the-incredible-saga-of-how-rangers-lucked-upon-lundqvist/" target="_blank">Henrik Lundqvist comes to mind</a>) while often choosing poorly in the earlier ones (<a href="http://blueseatblogs.com/2014/01/28/cam-fowler-isnt-a-ranger-get-over-it/" target="_blank">Cam Fowler comes to mind…</a>). There have been periods where it seems like the Rangers have gone ages without a solid draft pickup, and there have been years where you have to scratch your head in amazement as the team stocks up on sneaky-good talent. </span></div>
<b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b>
<br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> This year, the Rangers currently hold five draft picks, none earlier than their 2nd Round, 59th overall. Though this is one of the latest first picks the Rangers have had in the last 15 years, Sather has certainly grown accustomed to not picking early. From 2000-2014, the Rangers have averaged the a bit later than the 26th pick overall as their first selection in a given draft. Much of this has to do with the Rangers recent success, as they have made the playoffs in 9 of the last 10 seasons, thus ensuring their pick was no higher than 15th in the ensuing drafts. Sather has also made a habit of trading his first round pick in recent seasons, and to <a href="http://nypost.com/2015/03/02/sathers-lundqvist-admission-that-led-to-go-for-broke-trades/" target="_blank">varying degrees of success</a>.</span></div>
<b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b>
<br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> The Rangers’ cross-river rival, the New Jersey Devils, have a similar drafting history to the Rangers since 2000. Lou <a href="http://www.nj.com/devils/index.ssf/2015/05/end_of_an_era_for_27_years_lou_lamoriello_ran_the.html" target="_blank">may be gone</a>, but with these teams going head-to-head for so many years, we thought we would ask the following question: Does Glen Sather or Lou Lamoriello draft better?</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIVoLR9G5ROnkuToeBpN2kNexRvOzwigl_tFZCaktOCcB4n0Xvw5eX9ecO1JBrNRYov3804b65rgtLJqbFtPqEvOO8_TsED3R5rBOEeIMPOCrRTVCDxeQjQ5Du3Bj4vkSTE3bVO8IDtJw/s1600/146934680-640x427.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIVoLR9G5ROnkuToeBpN2kNexRvOzwigl_tFZCaktOCcB4n0Xvw5eX9ecO1JBrNRYov3804b65rgtLJqbFtPqEvOO8_TsED3R5rBOEeIMPOCrRTVCDxeQjQ5Du3Bj4vkSTE3bVO8IDtJw/s640/146934680-640x427.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b>
<br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">MATCHUP 1: TOP PICKS BY YEAR</span></div>
<b style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></b>
<br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> So let’s look at the numbers. First, we should take a look at each team’s first pick from 2000-2011. We did not include the picks from 2012-14, as they are still in development. We also focused on games played, as it is a quality-metric that all three positions share. How did Glen do?</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img alt="Glen Sather Drafting History - Sheet1.jpg" height="327px;" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/yzGYinldMZ0WzoW0wfNI7cKbADy7STw62K4mCQCmMtWI3dLT43NLr78fYTePDNjUNRS-3-2mDrL_ErgFG65W9BsAt7eE4sMINVNdiN9yTeeVs_7Gm1qQ8Ze7AxP9inrVp7z1E6c" style="-webkit-transform: rotate(0.00rad); border: none; transform: rotate(0.00rad);" width="373px;" /></span></div>
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<br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Let’s look at the positives first. Marc Staal is a “franchise” defenseman, Chris Kreider looks like he is turning into a solid power-forward, and J.T. Miller is finally showing the consistency that has been sorely missing from his game. Those three draft picks alone make up an important chunk of the current roster. Michael Del Zotto was <a href="http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=504639" target="_blank">certainly not a bust in his rookie campaign</a> (37 points in 80 games, including 22 power play points).</span></div>
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<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Now let’s get to the brutal side of Sather’s drafting career. Hugh Jessiman’s name was burned into the heart of Rangers fans in a deep 2003 draft, and as we watch Ryan Getzlaf and Zach Parise succeed (they were available for the Rangers to take), we won’t be forgetting anytime soon. Everybody knew the Rangers were going to draft Cam Fowler in 2010, and yet they took the enforcer-style Dylan McIlrath who seems to always be just outside the Rangers depth chart. Bobby Sanguinetti managed to get in a whopping 5 games with the Rangers before his career bounced between the AHL, NHL, and KHL. Last year, he was the top scoring defenseman for the Utica Comets, the AHL affiliate of the Vancouver Canucks. Not bad for an average hockey player, but not what the Rangers were hoping for.</span></div>
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<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> In fairness to Sather, we must mention that Dan Blackburn <a href="http://www.canada.com/windsorstar/news/story.html?id=ffa0cb07-d943-4144-8cfe-6b96ca6ea78d" target="_blank">sustained a freak shoulder injury</a> that forced him to retire in 2005 at the age of 22. And of course, the highly touted Alexei Cherepanov never made it to New York, as he shocked hockey fans everywhere, <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/blog/puck_daddy/post/Rangers-prospect-Alexei-Cherepanov-dies-after-co?urn=nhl,114584" target="_blank">passing away during a KHL game</a>. Hard to fault Sather for these unfortunate events.</span></div>
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<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> For context, let’s take a look at how Lou Lamoriello did over that same period. From 2000-2014, the Devils have drafted 29th overall on average. This is just a bit behind the Rangers overall draft position during the same period. How did Lou do?</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img height="329px;" src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/q-Oea2yyofgvb1GfBuydLvN-_A6mE6kPgdMpeGCU6NZWvCq2EhJpr80DCUW8EwPqqOmq7foBJ6-33JkPMs2FotZIVx8AMi0qIZGCQG3IWv9az-b8M5hWVjGRzilo1z2LaxQuWuQ" style="-webkit-transform: rotate(0.00rad); border: none; transform: rotate(0.00rad);" width="344px;" /></span></div>
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<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Compared to the Rangers, the Devils actually have drafted fairly well with their first pick. Their best pick is clearly Parise. Their worst pick is a bit harder to discern. Adrian Foster never played in an NHL game, but he was taken 28th overall, not 12th like Jessiman. It is notable that the Devils have not drafted anyone who has played over 200 games since 2005, and that dearth in depth has really started to manifest itself on their roster. But there is no denying that the Devils struck gold with Parise, and to a much lesser extent, Travis Zajac. I imagine most Rangers fans would rather have drafted Parise than Staal, but then again, it’s easier to be allured by points than by stout defense. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">ADVANTAGE: It’s close, but Lou Lamoriello</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">MATCHUP 2: ALL DRAFTING BY YEAR</span></div>
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<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> To get a fuller picture, let’s see how the Rangers have done overall under Glen Sather’s leadership. We took a look at all of the Rangers picks from 2000-2011, and determined what percentage of those picks turned into NHL players. We broke it down into three groups: Players who have played a single NHL game, players who have played at least 41 games in their career, and players who have played at least 82 games, or a full season’s worth of games, in their career. Here are the results:</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">New York Rangers Drafting 2000-2011</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img alt="Sather - Conversion Rates.jpg" height="342px;" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/3wvwpJ1SLVFzrRWuCmkbNHiNOLSP-enJ8FMFIl0rq5NF2bI6Jz8UaW7P8Wt_1sBmCjKHNH58nRVLK6cKxH_RKZJ2T1ld5uQWVv4f7g1IYULhK0pFC89JqIdf2c2dAnWTSkXP340" style="-webkit-transform: rotate(0.00rad); border: none; transform: rotate(0.00rad);" width="637px;" /></span></div>
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<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Overall, the Rangers have drafted a sizable number of players who have put on an NHL jersey at least once in their career. 45% of their draft picks have played at least one game at the NHL level. When you remove the players who have played less than a full season, that percentage becomes 27%, and this is what we would expect to see. Many players never make it out of the AHL, and many times those that do only get a whiff at a game or two in the top league. There just aren’t enough available slots in the roster for every draft pick to make it.</span></div>
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<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Let’s contextualize this. How have the Devils done in comparison? Their drafting chart is below:</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">New Jersey Devils Drafting 2000-2011</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img alt="Glen Sather Drafting History - Devils History.jpg" height="329px;" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/ne-qmDLNO8e9OkAKPxViyU30H3gDNubsmXdy3mAXFBc-2peW7i6RK9DDloowMFCP-09W7nr5UQ8mVQp4ctNKw2GVuZG67zTer9ZloamSqGcSxAXRpOYcnPTDwEzWcf63qSOMY_s" style="-webkit-transform: rotate(0.00rad); border: none; transform: rotate(0.00rad);" width="637px;" /></span></div>
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<br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> The Devils have drafted only three fewer player than the Rangers over this time-frame, but their overall yield is lower than the Rangers. Over 42% of the Devils picks have played at least an NHL game, and yet when we compare the number of players who have played a full season or more of games, the difference becomes much more stark. NHL-ready players have so much more value than a player who has never played a game at the highest level. These players can help your team in the short term, or be flipped for better players in the long-term. Sather has had more flexibility at recent trade deadlines because the Rangers suddenly have a solid pool of talent. The Devils, on the other hand, remained in the Eastern Conference basement as their overall team depth is lacking. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">ADVANTAGE: It’s close, but Glen Sather</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> MATCHUP 3: CURRENT HOMEGROWN ROSTER</span></div>
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<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Finally, let’s compare each team’s draft picks from 2000-2011 that ended last season on their respective rosters. Let’s mix it up, and take a look at the Devils’ current home-grown group:</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img alt="Glen Sather Drafting History - Best Rangers.jpg" height="191px;" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/2z208qqppP8psToxSvJFq6dWYpBCqvUNUMDwumXAmVGeFcwwUEQ7KOKgXYSNRn7W2AaSBWswnjUhxfZyzGenhvFZFbS_6Juhfcs1UGDFixHQv8Uo8qKGCwD9OlmqNJW4d8uIf10" style="-webkit-transform: rotate(0.00rad); border: none; transform: rotate(0.00rad);" width="412px;" /></span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> These nine players have combined for 1,800 games in their career. That averages out to 200 games per player. It’s an interesting cast of characters, but only three of them have more than 192 games of NHL experience. There is also not a forward who stands out as “elite”. Adam Henrique has been solid so far, but Travis Zajac is not anyone’s idea of a first-line center, and Jacob Josefson has failed to live up to expectations (11 points in 62 games in his fifth year).</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> What about the current crop of homegrown New York talent? There’s a lot to love here:</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img alt="Glen Sather Drafting History - Best Devils.jpg" height="172px;" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/E89PJY4oUw8Jc8800X3Pe9okKZYY4uNASyIRg_loBKcse5ZqbukWyezVgpxYvRAdDcD_qmB6AWnZUx3tY12n305zjEH6uILT5aRsR8TpkDMeywFjTFKlvqbgqFQ6DwgbF3T9iqQ" style="-webkit-transform: rotate(0rad); border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="413px;" /></span></div>
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<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Right off the bat, we have 8 players who were integral to the Ranger’s success last year. To compare with the Rangers, these eight players have amassed 2,825 games collectively. That’s 353 games per player on average! And you want to talk about “elite”? Derek Stepan is an all-situations top-flight center, Marc Staal has proven his penchant for shutting down opposing top lines night-after-night, and Henrik Lundqvist is, well, <a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015/06/does-henrik-lundqvists-contract-hurt-or.html" target="_blank">Henrik Lundqvist.</a></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">ADVANTAGE: At the moment, Glen Sather</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuemw1GcqZibjFbcG2BQh5_eaHJdaO0Vo_rs9xDEPVu5RM53AhmCZxZ9IplvRMhJGFI92eTFTXp2Ss9pzunKcraDS_XCAHaQFp75hLxRTV_8Fa3fpJoUQ9Iq1Hw-S1VV7Rk2h4KhulwjY/s1600/20130421-164850.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuemw1GcqZibjFbcG2BQh5_eaHJdaO0Vo_rs9xDEPVu5RM53AhmCZxZ9IplvRMhJGFI92eTFTXp2Ss9pzunKcraDS_XCAHaQFp75hLxRTV_8Fa3fpJoUQ9Iq1Hw-S1VV7Rk2h4KhulwjY/s400/20130421-164850.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div>
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<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.666666666666666px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Time will tell for many of the players already drafted by both teams, with Anthony Duclair (since deported to Arizona) and Pavel Buchnevich headlining the Rangers recent draft picks. But at least we can say, relative to Lou and the Devils, if Glen isn’t ahead of his contemporary, he’s certainly not far behind.</span></div>
S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-86916208938563041002015-06-21T05:23:00.000-07:002015-06-21T09:07:18.422-07:00NYR Off-Season Hypothetical: A, B, or C ?<div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<i style="font-size: x-large;">Which 2015-16 NY Rangers "team" would you prefer? Team A, Team B, or Team C?</i></div>
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Below there exists three parallel universes. All three begin as the New York Rangers of the present-day: less than a week away from the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, still basking in the aftertaste of May's Game 7 loss versus the Lightning... And yet, all three will simulate different possible off-season moves the Rangers could pursue this summer, each varying in choice, priority and motivation. </div>
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What do you think?</div>
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<span style="text-align: center;"> </span><b style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;">* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *</span></b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLqkeLJc_0xjQBltFVT8r_mhSDXbGxIHPSJWsaduc9HJcG4diNazBYilrca7a1TwTXiFsktHpkJcsY-RbaaClpi6X1oKgqLQRD92vOXSy1RFAUn53ybv3-PF0lFpvyOeXjKNH4AaaHASk/s1600/TEAMA.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLqkeLJc_0xjQBltFVT8r_mhSDXbGxIHPSJWsaduc9HJcG4diNazBYilrca7a1TwTXiFsktHpkJcsY-RbaaClpi6X1oKgqLQRD92vOXSy1RFAUn53ybv3-PF0lFpvyOeXjKNH4AaaHASk/s640/TEAMA.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<u style="font-size: x-large;"><b>Total Salary Cap</b></u></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">$71,475,000</span></div>
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<b>1) Trade Cam Talbot, Kevin Klein & the #59 overall pick to the Edmonton Oilers for the #16 overall pick. </b></div>
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This trade is largely about reducing the Rangers salary cap total, and is quite logical considering Edmonton's current needs. The Oilers are seeking goaltending depth, and a right-handed defenseman like Klein, coming off a career year, is contracted for three more seasons at a modest $2.9 million per cap hit. The Rangers draft a youngster with the #16 overall pick, making a long-term investment amongst a franchise with a reputation (and recent trend) of doing the opposite.</div>
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<b>2) Sign Derek Stepan to a 1-year, $6 million/year contract. </b></div>
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Stepan will once again become a restricted free agent with a salary arbitration option next July, though there's a good chance his price at a long-term contract will be pricier than that of signing one this summer. <a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015/05/ny-rangers-off-season-preview-needs.html" target="_blank">We predict at arbitration he'd make roughly $6 million</a> for a 1-year performance. The Rangers and Stepan could sign this deal amicably, or it could be a matter of arbitration.</div>
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<b>3) Sign Brad Richards to a 1-year, $1.5 million/year contract. While the base-pay cap hit would only be $1.5 million, the Rangers would load the contract with anywhere from $2 to $4 million in additional performance bonuses.</b> </div>
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<a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015/06/how-bonuses-retained-salary-affect-big.html" target="_blank">As we've mentioned before on this blog</a>, teams pressed for cap space are likely to seek refuge in performance bonuses. This is a prime example. While wanting to import a 3rd-line-center to let Kevin Hayes develop as a winger, bringing in a reliable pivot (such as Richards) usually proves to be pricy. This signing would allow the Rangers to improve center depth while maintaining a lean bang-for-buck in doing so. </div>
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<b>4) Sign Carl Hagelin to a 1-year, $2.85 million/year contract.</b> </div>
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Much like the Stepan deal, Hagelin is re-signed to a 1-year deal, kicking the can down the road as far as the pending decision / window to extend his services long-term. Hagelin will return as a restricted free agent with arbitration rights next July. This deal would be $450,000 richer than Hagelin's 1-year minimum qualifying offer. Again, <a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015/05/ny-rangers-off-season-preview-needs.html" target="_blank">we've predicted Hagelin's value at approximately 1-year $2.85M on this blog</a> before.</div>
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<b>5) Sign J.T. Miller to a 2-year, $1.25 million/year contract.</b> </div>
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<b>6) Sign Jesper Fast to a 2-year, $950,000/year contract.</b></div>
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<b>7) Sign Oscar Lindberg to a 1-year, $725,000/year contract.</b></div>
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These three are all restricted free agents, without the recourse of salary arbitration, whom have practically no leverage against lowball offers from the Rangers. Miller, with a minimum qualifying offer of 1-year/$770,000... receives a two-year "bridge" deal. Fast, with a minimum qualifying offer of $851,000... also receives a two-year bridge deal. Lindberg, whom only has 1 NHL game played in his career, is coming off an impressive AHL season & postseason, has all the makings to crack the big roster in October.</div>
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<b>8) Sign Matt Hunwick to a 1-year, $875,000/year contract.</b></div>
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<a href="http://nypost.com/2015/06/18/rangers-cant-land-college-stud-as-defensive-reinforcement/" target="_blank">As Larry Brooks has reported</a>, the Rangers have expressed interest in recouping Hunniwck's services as the team's fringe defenseman. If Klein is to be exiled, evaluating a Hunwick contract such as this also depends on one Brady Skjei. If Skjei is deemed "highly unlikely" of being NHL-ready next season, perhaps the roster spots of Hunwick + Skjei could be more properly allocated into a more bonafide and steady 3rd pair defensemen (cheaply available, unrestricted free agents such as Barret Jackman or Anton Volchenkov, perhaps?) In essence, <b><i>Team A</i></b> believes the role of 6th & 7th D on the team can be handled adequately by Hunwick & Skjei.</div>
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<b>9) Sign an Unrestricted Free Agent goaltender, such as Thomas Greiss, to a 1-year, $650,000 contract.</b></div>
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With Talbot's departure, a backup goalie is needed to replace his spot as team's second-stringer. Broadway's AHL goaltenders under contract: Cedrick Desjardins & Mac Skapski, are both highly unlikely to be viable candidates for promotion to NHL backup. Skapski will miss the beginning of next season <a href="http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/12998065/mackenzie-skapski-new-york-rangers-hip-surgery" target="_blank">recovering from hip surgery</a>, while Desjardins missed the majority of last season with a torn ACL. Most will fully expect the Rangers to sign a cheap backup goaltender on the market if-and-when Talbot is traded away.</div>
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<b>10) Sign an Unrestricted Free Agent forward, such as Dan Carcillo, to a 1-year, $600,000 contract.</b></div>
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<b> </b>To round out the team, sign a "taxi squad" spare forward as your 23rd roster spot. We use Carcillo in this example, but it could easily be countless other journeyman forwards bumping around the bottom of the league. </div>
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<i style="font-weight: bold;">Team A </i>represents a mostly quiet off-season, where the team is content with its inherent strengths, and does not feel the need to pursue massively-orchestrated trades nor albatross-sized free agents on the open market. No, <b style="font-style: italic;">Team A</b>'s mentality is "strength through growth, growth through maturity." With a respectable run to the very end of the Conference Finals, in this off-season we feel maintaining most of last year's team is the best course of action. If this blogger could coin a phrase, it'd be "an exciting postseason makes for a boring off-season."</div>
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Hardly removed from what is likely to happen in reality; <i style="font-weight: bold;">Team A</i>'s offseason will pack the NY Rangers to the brim of the salary cap (predicted at $71.5 million), max out the bonus cushion on of Hayes & Richards, and offer Rangers fans all the reason in the world for another successful NYR season & (hopefully) deep playoff run. </div>
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Here's what the NY Rangers' long-term contract atmosphere would be after <i style="font-weight: bold;">Team A</i>'s off-season moves:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiagqpaHxeL7rWvrBRHMLKWbxUbnohjgffrqE158G0TQblz7m73dJlknY5gC3Li9q429HgrB86GkoIBSstMHQMjMsT0P3MpFq_oeq6c2YEz4_DUft3Md_d6qmqvIWtx02tJ9GUgpoL1Z1A/s1600/TEAMAFINALVERS.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiagqpaHxeL7rWvrBRHMLKWbxUbnohjgffrqE158G0TQblz7m73dJlknY5gC3Li9q429HgrB86GkoIBSstMHQMjMsT0P3MpFq_oeq6c2YEz4_DUft3Md_d6qmqvIWtx02tJ9GUgpoL1Z1A/s640/TEAMAFINALVERS.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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This would give Broadway plenty of maneuverability for next off-season. We would predict roughly $25 million in cap space next summer with a dozen contracts expiring. It would give the Rangers' front office a lot of choices to make in the Summer of 2016, but also a lot of room and time to do so. Plus, they got one more shot at a Stanley Cup before making some tough choices in a "break-up-the-band" kind of way. </div>
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However during the season, it could be tough times if there was a rash of injuries, as this roster stands a mere $25,000 under the ceiling. Negotiations on contract extensions with Kreider & Hayes' could begin this summer, but negotiations with Stepan, Hagelin, or Lindberg couldn't begin until January 1st, 2016.</div>
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<b style="font-style: italic;">Team A</b>'s summer would be swapping Martin St. Louis, Kevin Klein, James Sheppard & Cam Talbot for Brad Richards, Brady Skjei, Dan Carcillo & Thomas Greiss. </div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * </span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><u><b>Total Salary Cap</b></u></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">$70,400,000</span></div>
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<b>1) Trade Cam Talbot to the Buffalo Sabres for the #31 overall pick. </b></div>
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Liquidate Talbot into draft pick(s) and/or prospect(s). <a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015/06/top-10-realistic-cam-talbot-trades.html" target="_blank">We've previously written about 10 possible draft pick trades involving Talbot</a>, so we'll go with this example for the sake of simplicity. </div>
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<b>2) Trade Derek Stepan to the Colorado Avalanche for Ryan O'Reilly. However, Colorado retains 50% of O'Reilly's contract. </b></div>
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We've seen comparisons <a href="http://hockeyrodent.com/R2594.HTM" target="_blank">here and there</a> regarding Stepan's similarity to O'Reilly. When weighing the numbers, we've come to the conclusion that Stepan would likely make a small amount more than O'Reilly, all else equal. Stepan is two seasons from unrestricted free agency, while O'Reilly is only one. Thus, a straight-up swap of the two players with Colorado footing the bill for half of O'Reilly's seems like a fair idea for both sides. </div>
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This idea especially makes sense if the following is true:</div>
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A) The Avalanche are more interested in Stepan than O'Reilly in terms of a long-term asset</div>
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B) The Rangers are more interested in O'Reilly than Stepan in terms of winning a Cup in 2016</div>
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Remember, both of these players have had contract holdouts with their respective teams. Swapping them could be a mutually beneficial idea to ponder. But mostly, this is a salary cap move. Stepan would go for at least $6 million, but has now been replaced with a very similar player making costing half as much. That frees up $3 million in cap room for basically no loss of quality, avoiding the ejection of trading away Klein or Hagelin.</div>
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<b>3) Sign Carl Hagelin to a 2-year, $3.00 million/year contract.</b> </div>
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Hagelin is only two years away from Unrestricted Free Agency, so a two-year bridge contract for about $3 million/year seems accurate. His 3rd line services are retained.</div>
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<b>5) Sign J.T. Miller to a 2-year, $1.25 million/year contract.</b> </div>
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<b>6) Sign Jesper Fast to a 2-year, $975,000/year contract.</b></div>
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<b>7) Sign Oscar Lindberg to a 2-year, $875,000/year contract.</b></div>
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<b>8) Sign Matt Hunwick to a 1-year, $875,000/year contract.</b></div>
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<b>9) Sign an Unrestricted Free Agent goaltender, such as Jonas Gustavsson, to a 2-year, $900,000/year contract.</b></div>
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<b>10) Sign an Unrestricted Free Agent forward, such as James Sheppard, to a 1-year, $800,000 contract.</b></div>
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<b>11. Sign an Unrestricted Free Agent forward, such as Dan Carcillo, to a 1-year, $625,000 contract.</b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> </span><i style="font-weight: bold;">Team B</i> uses the art of retained salary to get below the 2015-16 salary cap <i>without</i> sacrificing hardly any quality. Losing Stepan and the certainty of a franchise 1st center for the future is not the greatest long-term change... but O'Reilly for $3 million spells a wonderful thing for the shortsighted goal of winning the 2016 Stanley Cup. Yes... O'Reilly, may very well be a 1-year rental. Yet defensively (especially if Skjei is NHL-calibre) it looks as though <i style="font-weight: bold;">Team B </i>has fortified defensive depth. This was a summer objective that this blog cited as a sought area of improvement in our <a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015/05/ny-rangers-off-season-preview-needs.html" target="_blank">Rangers off-season preview</a> article.</div>
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Additionally, this roster has a theoretical $1.1 million in cap space. This means the team has more flexibility in the face of injuries (as far as cap space for minor-league call-ups), and could have a few million in cap space come February to be a deadline shopper. The moves would also suggest that <i style="font-weight: bold;">Team B</i> not only has faith in Hayes to remain at 3rd center, but possibly grooming him for bigger minutes down the middle, when 2016-17 comes and perhaps neither Stepan nor O'Reilly are on the team.</div>
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<b style="font-style: italic;"> Team B</b>'s summer would essentially be NYR swapping Martin St. Louis, Derek Stepan, & Cam Talbot for Ryan O'Reilly, Oscar Lindberg & Jonas Gustavsson.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjzt1NEHa6p1MGjpyrTSjM44pIoYlwNJcttk1dLRPcAebpR_UxQ03nfquEQ37yTbzmgULliXMBZy0FIvDyKI569lygh2Agy-B4ijr4eTtAnm81szQsgLFG3tnlYhCSfD2vIgE2eaTM2Ws/s1600/gdhjythd.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="444" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjzt1NEHa6p1MGjpyrTSjM44pIoYlwNJcttk1dLRPcAebpR_UxQ03nfquEQ37yTbzmgULliXMBZy0FIvDyKI569lygh2Agy-B4ijr4eTtAnm81szQsgLFG3tnlYhCSfD2vIgE2eaTM2Ws/s640/gdhjythd.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<u style="font-size: x-large;"><b>Total Salary Cap</b></u></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">$71,461,667</span></div>
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<b>1) Trade Cam Talbot, Carl Hagelin, Tanner Glass, the #59 overall pick, and a future 1st Round Pick (in '16 or '17) & the rights to Brandon Halverson to the Edmonton Oilers for Jordan Eberle. </b></div>
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<span class="s1"> Here we forgo the rumors of Ryan Nugent-Hpokins and Nail Yakupov, as <b><i>Team C</i></b> goes after the big fish in that of Eberle, a wonderful young scorer who’s been tethered to the Oilers the entire five years of his career. We assert the Oilers acquire Talbot, which has been the chatter on the grape vine for countless weeks, in predication that he will be the team’s next great cornerstone goalie. </span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Of course Talbot only has one year remaining on his contract, thus one year removed from being an Unrestricted Free Agent. This tarnishes his trade value for New York. To land a fish like Eberle, Broadway sweetens the pot, even with Talbot as a given.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> So the Rangers include Carl Hagelin & Tanner Glass (both are two years removed from UFA).</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Hagelin replaces Eberle as a winger roster spot, although definitely a massive downgrade for Edmonton. Glass is largely a throw-in pick. A little advantage to Glass’s remaining contract is he’s actually paid LESS than his cap hit. Small-market teams (like Edmonton) enjoy players with less salary than salary cap, as it helps a franchise make it to the salary cap floor without having to actually pay the amount.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> However Talbot, Hagelin & Glass bundled together still aren’t close enough to getting Eberle, who has four years remaining in his contract at a $6 million/year cap hit. That means Eberle could have anywhere from 90 to 150 goals scored in that remainder! Also Eberle, who recently turned 25 years of age, is in his absolute prime in terms of production. Hagelin (27) & Glass (31) are both beginning their [probable] downslopes.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> So…</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> If the Rangers weren’t “all-in” last season, they certainly will be this season. Because to make this trade work, the Rangers would have to top off at least two high-quality draft picks in the deal. Here we assert its at least a 1st Round pick in 2016 or 2017 (whichever one the Arizona Coyotes don’t acquire based on whether or not the Rangers make the playoffs next season, pertinent to the Duclair/Yandle trade). And, on top of that, the #59 overall pick in next week's draft.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">It’s an extreme price to pay, but if we look at Rangers trades and the “going rate” of acquiring a young, established winger like Eberle? Who has four years left on a reasonably-paid contract?</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">Some recent examples include...</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1">RYAN CLOWE (UFA in 0.5 seasons)</span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1">in exchange for</span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1">2nd Round 2013 Draft Pick</span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1">3rd Round 2013 Draft Pick</span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1">5th Round 2014 Draft Pick</span></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: center;">
and</div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1">MARTIN ST. LOUIS (UFA in 1.5 seasons)</span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1">2nd Round 2015 Draft Pick</span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1">for</span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1">RYAN CALLAHAN (UFA in 0.5 seasons)</span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1">1st Round 2015 Draft Pick</span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1">2nd Round 2014 Draft Pick</span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1">7th Round 2015 Draft Pick</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Eberle would undoubtedly be a bigger catch than either of these two. Thus, even coupled with the assets of Talbot, Hagelin & Glass… would be the likely package to insinuate for this type of deal. </span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Throw in Rangers’ goaltending prospect Brandon Halverson to mitigate that condition. Halverson, 19, is still a long way off from potential pro-time in net. Yet he would serve as an “insurance” policy of sorts of the Oilers should Talbot sign elsewhere in the Summer of 2016, or flat-out be unsuccessful entertaining a full-time starting gig in general.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> The Rangers would still have goalie prospect Igor Shesterkin, 19, currently in Russia, in the pipeline, in addition to Mac Skapski, 21, coming off his freshman season in the AHL.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
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</div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> The Oilers acquiring Cam Talbot (certainly guaranteed to play in 2015-16, with potential for long-term contract) as well as Halverson, would serve as a huge upgrade in the franchise’s goaltending depth. That, Hagelin & Glass… plus a 1st & 2nd Rounder… might be enough to sway Edmonton into trading Eberle.</span></div>
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<b><br /></b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
<b>2) Trade Rick Nash to the St. Louis Blues for T.J. Oshie & Jordan Binnington. The Blues retain $1 million/year of Oshie's salary.</b></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> In this scenario, Nash is considered to be the superior asset, as Oshie is a presumed ‘downgrade” from New York's standpoint. Ultimately Nash (with three years remaining on a $7.8 million/year cap hit) is an upgrade for Oshie (who has two years remaining on a $4.175 million/year cap hit). The Blues’ “cost of upgrade?” Goaltending prospect Jordan Bennington & paying the tab for roughly one-fourth of Oshie's remaining money.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><i> But Nash is two years older than Oshie, and is nearly 190% the price! </i></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> True, but Nash being contracted an extra year, even tip-toeing around his 35th birthday, inevitably guarantees more goals than Oshie. Even if Nash has a terrible stint in St. Louis, he’s extremely likely to notch 90 goals over the 246 potential regular-season games before his contract expires. </span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> As for Oshie?</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Oshie’s only broken the 20-goal barrier once in his career! (21 goals in 2013-14). </span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxKO8vmNdCd7HqLFmo_a498XnMtYWQrA-yr4cAoxHwOh5U6jCcgm6_nx4hwoLZkSRw-Q-xjtwg7nyZA4EVf_OmQLRZA-lLjJLGGZ-7WZTGG1o0mZHkD3TP8ghOUXDxWi-f3qWK_PWcnoI/s1600/ows_142776960680217.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxKO8vmNdCd7HqLFmo_a498XnMtYWQrA-yr4cAoxHwOh5U6jCcgm6_nx4hwoLZkSRw-Q-xjtwg7nyZA4EVf_OmQLRZA-lLjJLGGZ-7WZTGG1o0mZHkD3TP8ghOUXDxWi-f3qWK_PWcnoI/s640/ows_142776960680217.jpg" width="624" /></a></div>
<div class="p2">
<br />
<span class="s1"></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> </span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Even if Nash’s cost, as well as risk-of-decline, is greater than this of Oshies; swapping Nash for a partially-retained Oshie saves the Rangers nearly $5 million in cap space. Plus the addition of Binnington, a prospect coming off a terrific season in the American Hockey League, is on the final year of his entry-level contract at a minuscule $636,337 cap hit. </span></div>
<div class="p1">
<br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> The Blues’ will certainly re-sign Jake Allen, and have Brian Elliot locked up at a very reasonable $2.5 million/year cap hit for the next two seasons. Binnington’s chances at breaking into the majors are slim in St. Louis… however Broadway will be seeking a cheap backup goalie after Talbot’s inevitable ejection.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Would St. Louis be willing to beef their payroll so suddenly? They’re not exactly an NHL team known to spend much comparative to the league... that, plus the <a href="http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2015/06/20/armstrong-doesnt-see-the-blues-tarasenko-being-very-far-apart-in-dollars/" target="_blank">very likely multi-year contract for forward phenom Vladimir Tarasenko</a>... would suggest St. Louis willing to spend a lot of money this winter.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> The Blues find themselves somewhere along the lines of where the NY Rangers did in Lundqvist’s first 5 or 6 years in New York; they seem to have no problem making the postseason, but simply cannot muster the roster to make a deep playoff run. Of all teams in the league this summer, the Blues may very well be amongst the feistiest to make a splash in terms of significant upgrades immediately.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<br />
<span class="s1"></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><i> Doesn’t Rick Nash have a No-Trade Clause?</i></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> He does; but on July 1st, it will become a limited no-trade clause, in which Nash will submit a list of 5-15 teams he will not accept a trade to. While destinations (and frankly some foolhardy Nash trade rumors) like Arizona, Buffalo, Edmonton or Florida would probably be the first cities penciled-in on Nash’s list… The Blues, a competitive team, could quite possibly be a team fair game for the Rangers to deal Nash. </span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
</div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> If this is the case, the Rangers could just ask Nash if he’d accept the trade in June, if their prerogative is to move hime somewhere somehow anyways. This idea isn’t exactly “probable”, but all things considered it isn’t impossible. In fact a deal along these lines would make a lot of sense for both teams.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> While I personally don't think Nash is going anywhere this summer... of all places to be traded, St. Louis certainly seems like one of (if not the most) plausible destination.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> </span></div>
<div class="" style="clear: both;">
<b>3) Sign Derek Stepan to a 5-year, $6.75 million/year contract.</b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
With Nash's hefty $7.8 million/year salary cap swapped for Oshie's [partially retained] $3.175 million/year cap hit... It frees up room do what <i style="font-weight: bold;">Team A </i>& <i style="font-weight: bold;">Team B</i> couldn't; lock up Stepan to a long-term deal before his price escalates any further the next 24 months. This would keep Stepan on Broadway through the remainder of his 20's.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
<b>4) Sign J.T. Miller to a 2-year, $1,200,000/year contract.</b></div>
<div class="" style="clear: both;">
<b>5) Sign Jesper Fast to a 2-year, $975,000/year contract.</b></div>
<div class="" style="clear: both;">
<b>6) Sign Oscar Lindberg to a 1-year, $750,000/year contract.</b></div>
<div class="" style="clear: both;">
<b>7) Sign Matt Hunwick to a 1-year, $875,000/year contract.</b></div>
<div class="" style="clear: both;">
<b>8) </b><b>Sign an Unrestricted Free Agent forward, such as David Moss, to a 1-year, $875,000 contract.</b></div>
<div class="" style="clear: both;">
<b>9) Sign an Unrestricted Free Agent forward, such as James Sheppard, to a 1-year, $800,000 contract.</b></div>
<div class="" style="clear: both;">
<b>10) Sign an Unrestricted Free Agent forward, such as Dan Carcillo, to a 1-year, $625,000 contract.</b><br />
<b><br /></b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwDJ7mIdjRC95OukAb_QpwNnZHxeCBURzoI_iNY6w5x9Vy_t5-Cpo4cxgynXsU-IdLcG3-I9YatrKepHwa4hu3lnK58GXC2fP6ZVMCStPh4IJqzOYHX9Pv3DdIj3lhf5UwJd6HE70Ygco/s1600/Jordan-Binnington.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwDJ7mIdjRC95OukAb_QpwNnZHxeCBURzoI_iNY6w5x9Vy_t5-Cpo4cxgynXsU-IdLcG3-I9YatrKepHwa4hu3lnK58GXC2fP6ZVMCStPh4IJqzOYHX9Pv3DdIj3lhf5UwJd6HE70Ygco/s640/Jordan-Binnington.jpg" width="508" /></a></div>
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<i style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></i>
<i style="font-weight: bold;"> Team C</i> makes a cannonball's splash in the off-season trade market, making a couple of big-named exchanges in hopes of designing a roster capable of a championship in June 2016. While the theoretical exchange of Nash, Hagelin & Talbot for Oshie [$1M retained], Eberle & Binnington is a net salary savings for New York next season... it ultimately gives them less to work with in the long-term mindset of re-signing Kreider or Hayes. Coupled with the massive pick & prospect loss to acquire Eberle, New York will really be counting on talented-but-cheap contracts to emerge in the next few seasons. If Skjei can be counted on to be a regular roster spot by the 2016-17 season, New York will count on his net savings as replacement for one of Yandle or Boyle after their contracts expire.<br />
<br />
Unlike <i style="font-weight: bold;">Team B</i> and precisely like <b style="font-style: italic;">Team A</b><i>... </i><b style="font-style: italic;">Team C </b>has packed this roster to the brim, totaling over $71.46 million in 23 contracts. Don't expect this team to have the cap space to be shoppers at the 2016 deadline. And why would they? These contracts and actions indicate serious committal to the landscape of the roster for many years, and a struggle or rejection of Rangers success would be as problematic as it would be catastrophic.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjlJV9AWEsnrWrN9T9_0JOolMEUNiV5HOuyXV66ayoS9ySq79cDWsiuHh4NmqNVVdrkVpWPFarhXS5rTdLNdm0NYQN3CpeQCJ1It9bE0fnQYEQClza28lLifXlrJa80IMRNuhluWjX7sE/s1600/TEAMCCONTRACTS.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjlJV9AWEsnrWrN9T9_0JOolMEUNiV5HOuyXV66ayoS9ySq79cDWsiuHh4NmqNVVdrkVpWPFarhXS5rTdLNdm0NYQN3CpeQCJ1It9bE0fnQYEQClza28lLifXlrJa80IMRNuhluWjX7sE/s640/TEAMCCONTRACTS.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;">* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * </span></b></div>
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">So which team do you prefer? A, B, or C? </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Let us know! Tweet us at @HockeyStatMiner</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<b>Post-Script:</b><br />
I did not include a buyout nor trade of defenseman Dan Boyle. While his cap may be very heavy for his production, thus tempting to be moved... Boyle's no-trade-clause and 35-years-or-older immunity to being buried in the minors for cap relief make it very difficult to excavate from Broadway's books. Like it or not, it's all but certain Boyle will invariably remain a Ranger for next season. Otherwise he'd be a debatable asset of which to hypothesize trades.S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-28474682145123851692015-06-19T03:03:00.000-07:002015-06-20T18:55:22.792-07:00Top 10 (Realistic) Cam Talbot Trades<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> The following are workshopped trade proposals regarding the recent Cam Talbot trade rumors, including the Edmonton Oilers, San Jose Sharks & Buffalo Sabres. Since we <a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015/06/of-picks-pockets-trade-chips-of-nhl.html" target="_blank">p</a><a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015/06/of-picks-pockets-trade-chips-of-nhl.html" target="_blank">ublished this historical data on the historic trade value of draft picks</a> a few days ago, I thought we’d try to carve out some realistic and precise trades that could feasibly happen.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikr3c7WqJ8nIG9wb5b8ojGLTikpkwV2Y_M2LToMhbjF1FbSCoLQOig_tq0VM42qJoU_5PHsfLdrP0a9OBCktLA2q3dRM2_X4N4ehgP9_TBZH3DcDPi6I6HtsTzOLTBUrxXhU7ne35eE9I/s1600/talbotstart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="425" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikr3c7WqJ8nIG9wb5b8ojGLTikpkwV2Y_M2LToMhbjF1FbSCoLQOig_tq0VM42qJoU_5PHsfLdrP0a9OBCktLA2q3dRM2_X4N4ehgP9_TBZH3DcDPi6I6HtsTzOLTBUrxXhU7ne35eE9I/s640/talbotstart.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<br />
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> When comparing Talbot’s speculative future to that of what happened with Cory Schneider in 2013... it's important to be able to take the comparison with the appropriate grain of salt. Let’s compare the two trade-bait goaltenders:</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLQQilQbRpE4UvkM5Uz8PLXxFhjwiUPINX7780hBvtuZS2MTS-vRV-oyo-CvZz6BU9kCq_RNnRrkswtmgb8tZtyLMCF6VgO_tbsIdOMe_8c1bmcHia5F9gimAGgLU_ZYImx7ytA7XLu80/s1600/CTvsCS.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLQQilQbRpE4UvkM5Uz8PLXxFhjwiUPINX7780hBvtuZS2MTS-vRV-oyo-CvZz6BU9kCq_RNnRrkswtmgb8tZtyLMCF6VgO_tbsIdOMe_8c1bmcHia5F9gimAGgLU_ZYImx7ytA7XLu80/s400/CTvsCS.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> No, the New York Rangers are not in a position to demand a #9 overall pick straight-up for their goaltender, <a href="http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=675856" target="_blank">as the Canucks were able to reap</a> off Schneider. But… Talbot’s stats, while of less sample size and quality, remain damn good. So there’s obvious merit to the list of suitors interested in acquiring his services.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">
</span></div>
<ol class="ol1">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">This is the 1st trade example idea we’ll submit for examination. Here, this really only makes sense if our trade partner (BUF, EDM or SJ) is trading for Cam Talbot under the assumption that Talbot is equivalent to a late 1st-Round draft pick.</span></li>
</ol>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjC3Ij_6vAQauHhkt3WhSK-iiIUHWOZiMWNTUoKU2aZ8muJPH8EVDkFHGSA2H5Za59-CxkaS9gwhAyeFhAS4aDdM1XYu32PJ1fo777wi10b1M8G6VzOz1aTHpHMZkrWtv9_ShmvtNDwSO8/s1600/TRADE1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="161" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjC3Ij_6vAQauHhkt3WhSK-iiIUHWOZiMWNTUoKU2aZ8muJPH8EVDkFHGSA2H5Za59-CxkaS9gwhAyeFhAS4aDdM1XYu32PJ1fo777wi10b1M8G6VzOz1aTHpHMZkrWtv9_ShmvtNDwSO8/s640/TRADE1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
or...</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibyNifdsq7zCu0aDOx9JagZL_Q72n1ODso_es4FMA1fg3xYjN39sETnfRP9h_JweIrp_q_bcp0u1MOYcTpVJ-G3vSumGJbnSgxuz1CoJzNyHefZX0kfAcR3OOUgJzl7kbXYAGnSHoBARQ/s1600/TRADE2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibyNifdsq7zCu0aDOx9JagZL_Q72n1ODso_es4FMA1fg3xYjN39sETnfRP9h_JweIrp_q_bcp0u1MOYcTpVJ-G3vSumGJbnSgxuz1CoJzNyHefZX0kfAcR3OOUgJzl7kbXYAGnSHoBARQ/s640/TRADE2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
or...</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6hr6W23Rkjbrzbf8JOfTZVl6_fDpmgYnLPuXTY5bXv5VSSKZ2td8ME9WbnPG37PsLenY4wm-rXR7T052e0hOQIpgw-lg1JPaENb8VsKOQe0pNbtOdkCeUFeMl-PLeUzsMwLkGXenkCk8/s1600/TRADE3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="161" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6hr6W23Rkjbrzbf8JOfTZVl6_fDpmgYnLPuXTY5bXv5VSSKZ2td8ME9WbnPG37PsLenY4wm-rXR7T052e0hOQIpgw-lg1JPaENb8VsKOQe0pNbtOdkCeUFeMl-PLeUzsMwLkGXenkCk8/s640/TRADE3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1"><u><b>Historical reference</b></u></span></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1"><i>On June 25, 2010… #22 & #113 traded for #27 & #57.</i></span></div>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
2. Again, we assume that teams are pursuing Talbot in a trade, and are still willing to treat him like a late 1st-Round draft pick in terms of absolute trade value:</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyCll71bUq7sJfCTv2HnFzdyQjhgAN0EUvRD-IpjgbJpu4urtFd5yfGUqixfMXbleHA-qJlUcrT3D5ZhBWLXbI-IuyWngOkbeKlOa-iVI5NwxcIl6UKx05t_IQNUhkMBBWzYTLsfzwF_w/s1600/TRADE4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyCll71bUq7sJfCTv2HnFzdyQjhgAN0EUvRD-IpjgbJpu4urtFd5yfGUqixfMXbleHA-qJlUcrT3D5ZhBWLXbI-IuyWngOkbeKlOa-iVI5NwxcIl6UKx05t_IQNUhkMBBWzYTLsfzwF_w/s640/TRADE4.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Essentially we have New York having its 2nd, 3rd & 4th Rounders being upgraded at Edmonton’s expense. The Rangers’ 2nd-Rounder moves up 2 pegs, their 3rd-Rounder moves up 10 pegs, & their 4th-Rounder moves up 2 pegs. But on the other hand, Edmonton believes it is upgrading it’s #33 overall, since Talbot is comparatively 3 to 8 pegs higher than a late 1st-Rounder.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
or...</div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc-EKWDztti_txLEYO_GxB-i8qnFubtFNBwU1Pe5Ixmcf3xWxltTIOg4xprl5J5LpetrH5L_ljZSuv2hrKGSu__ln6gS4kcdrMyvVVdeMRyZD0-0HYnHrfeStjJN6GQUKL3texzIEMBdE/s1600/TRADE5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc-EKWDztti_txLEYO_GxB-i8qnFubtFNBwU1Pe5Ixmcf3xWxltTIOg4xprl5J5LpetrH5L_ljZSuv2hrKGSu__ln6gS4kcdrMyvVVdeMRyZD0-0HYnHrfeStjJN6GQUKL3texzIEMBdE/s640/TRADE5.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> While certainly more elaborate, it holds the same principal as the previous Edmonton trade example. If Talbot is treated by Buffalo as better than a #31 overall pick… this trade has the Rangers upgrade 1st, 2nd & 7th Rounders while Buffalo upgrades its 3rd & 4th. Once again, this only computes if Buffalo deems Talbot the equivalent of a late-1st-Rounder.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> 3. </span>Now we’ll begin to decrease Talbot’s perceived trade value. We’ll now say the market will trade where Talbot is treated as that of a #30, #31, #32, #33, #34 or #35 overall draft pick. The obvious suggestions (and frankly most realistic, in my opinion) now become:</div>
<div class="p1">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqNixWWbTavncRbchW4C_QUy_Eagj_YgPUGdhLeI09nSwH3n1Lzt53z6b2KvNDZN7RUW4VEikhcXk35bsnWT3AK3hOOsbLYX5vvRifRgpzBZ-1WzvB1RqzYw4HDtRATGpbsP5h_hEmt6c/s1600/TRADEAAA.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="132" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqNixWWbTavncRbchW4C_QUy_Eagj_YgPUGdhLeI09nSwH3n1Lzt53z6b2KvNDZN7RUW4VEikhcXk35bsnWT3AK3hOOsbLYX5vvRifRgpzBZ-1WzvB1RqzYw4HDtRATGpbsP5h_hEmt6c/s640/TRADEAAA.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="p1">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
or...</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9lhmtun1voZ-yy3kJU14cvWnOdyNqeBXtYdaA4Bz9er-IT1ttoWNmIaDui3ZbEQBwKqqxkWpCGO7B958bLMSjdENqdZC4ZE1hc2IrvQyXR7M2oTYXWR-FY4qhucumAdV6mE_TLuTNOH8/s1600/TRADEAAB.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="130" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9lhmtun1voZ-yy3kJU14cvWnOdyNqeBXtYdaA4Bz9er-IT1ttoWNmIaDui3ZbEQBwKqqxkWpCGO7B958bLMSjdENqdZC4ZE1hc2IrvQyXR7M2oTYXWR-FY4qhucumAdV6mE_TLuTNOH8/s640/TRADEAAB.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
or...</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_m5TxeYBwZOhwJneE4Ua_PW3AlG3336b8lTWAt61roGfzTMVFOd58j48h6mzzP8RAdsR0bgNpI7pnYcDxhihHvHbjXoqzqFvi5v8LBQxxZB2ZRXhBUqMeRNVJJVvFJBDR4f2XT6wOUkE/s1600/TRADEDDD.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="158" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_m5TxeYBwZOhwJneE4Ua_PW3AlG3336b8lTWAt61roGfzTMVFOd58j48h6mzzP8RAdsR0bgNpI7pnYcDxhihHvHbjXoqzqFvi5v8LBQxxZB2ZRXhBUqMeRNVJJVvFJBDR4f2XT6wOUkE/s640/TRADEDDD.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1"><u><b>Historical reference</b></u></span></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1"><i>On June 25, 2010… #30 traded for #35& #58.</i></span></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1"><i><br /></i></span></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: left;">
4. Yet if Talbot’s perceived value is even slightly lower than what we’ve been discussing… as in Talbot being treated more like a 2nd-Rounder in the late 30s or early 40s overall? Then rather than Talbot being an upgrade to their #33 overall, Edmonton begins to see at as a downgrade! This is also around the point where San Jose’s 2nd-Rounder can become a straight-up swap. In which case, something like one of these becomes more likely: </div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMsstdKp89jsT7-OqzVVRTAE5rctl4QdAIRm6VwiON1EjNp0fjLgUJwhO1Nsz8n8Y-5uIemfgZkoRO2aD5L_OD7w23KJkwxW_j6e75hHWbXvGz0aaugtb8CjZD9k4dPMuzSc3wX6nVabg/s1600/trade001.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="132" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMsstdKp89jsT7-OqzVVRTAE5rctl4QdAIRm6VwiON1EjNp0fjLgUJwhO1Nsz8n8Y-5uIemfgZkoRO2aD5L_OD7w23KJkwxW_j6e75hHWbXvGz0aaugtb8CjZD9k4dPMuzSc3wX6nVabg/s640/trade001.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
or...</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikAs2UU41XY56Lngop7Nbc8W1OLvgCNB1RptLGMffxcnWIu-sza2wsArWkD5YZd6jG5y4aJHVYT7bPVPEfi18yZLK2yTgy58gFy5hW4slmNA3h4a_ixWOj7AtKyxAtifqe12A7G4L4vGA/s1600/trade002.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="164" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikAs2UU41XY56Lngop7Nbc8W1OLvgCNB1RptLGMffxcnWIu-sza2wsArWkD5YZd6jG5y4aJHVYT7bPVPEfi18yZLK2yTgy58gFy5hW4slmNA3h4a_ixWOj7AtKyxAtifqe12A7G4L4vGA/s640/trade002.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1"><u><b>Historical reference</b></u></span></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1"><i>On June 21, 2008… #38 traded for #46 & #76.</i></span></div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>Conclusion</i></b></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div>
<div>
<i style="font-weight: bold;"> </i>- We know the Oilers, Sharks & Sabres have expressed interest in Talbot</div>
<div>
- We know the Rangers likely have more to gain from Talbot than retaining him, as renewing his contract past 2016 seems unlikely at this point in time</div>
<div>
- We know the Rangers could include a body with Talbot in an effort to relieve NYR payroll for next season...</div>
<div>
- ...but we also know the Rangers could also trade Talbot in an effort to restore 2015 draft picks to the team, which has depleted its 2015 & 2016 draft picks en route to going "all in" on shopping upgrades such as Keith Yandle & Martin St. Louis.</div>
<div>
- The only "unknown" we deal with is <i style="font-weight: bold;">how much</i> these other teams are willing to give up. How much do they believe Talbot can be a cornerstone netminder? How much do they believe a long-term extension can be hashed out upon acquiring Cam? How much is a team willing to invest this summer for Talbot's future?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
These hypothetically brainstormed trades seem realistic. We can only wait and see what ultimately results in these bidding bubbles between now and the last weekend in June.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-46945659673021650012015-06-18T01:02:00.000-07:002015-06-18T01:02:27.424-07:00Of Picks & Pockets: The Trade Chips of NHL Draft Picks<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> </span>With the highly-anticipated 2015 NHL Entry Draft rapidly approaching, I thought I’d do some number crunching on the actual trade value of a specific draft pick. When someone (including myself) ponders hypothetical trade proposals, it can be hard to truly appreciate the trading power of a 1st, 3rd or 5th round draft pick. So I thought I’d shed some light on the historical value attached to the range of draft picks available to be traded this month.</div>
<div class="p1">
<br /></div>
<div class="p1">
First, let's take a look at the current order of draft picks:</div>
<div class="p1">
<br /></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2UmYyUc4DJRNBAxwi7CEaVvXaVOw9O1i3_MbvZ-NXYAKi3IIC6subcLYoDEKPXAbIqvjsEnYPYKuFpUtOJsWbNMY2xHFKKRBU_m-U36-CJvcvV1DfkHwn4MhFPHeTHZ5ZOGAGwmU4f5M/s1600/Screen+Shot+2015-06-18+at+3.52.16+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2UmYyUc4DJRNBAxwi7CEaVvXaVOw9O1i3_MbvZ-NXYAKi3IIC6subcLYoDEKPXAbIqvjsEnYPYKuFpUtOJsWbNMY2xHFKKRBU_m-U36-CJvcvV1DfkHwn4MhFPHeTHZ5ZOGAGwmU4f5M/s640/Screen+Shot+2015-06-18+at+3.52.16+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYPTwQdHW7N57r2CWd7wL2NnkSUDuus-NVZo7ZuK3Ly-iulbefq5z6rSsi70HSXHWyupEPxchdxeMA3gkmQNWz2WjOEIghWIereJnEYPQGKaZ0mYm_TZHaSB_Wlq-29jn4u5l43W_XtOw/s1600/Screen+Shot+2015-06-18+at+3.52.30+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYPTwQdHW7N57r2CWd7wL2NnkSUDuus-NVZo7ZuK3Ly-iulbefq5z6rSsi70HSXHWyupEPxchdxeMA3gkmQNWz2WjOEIghWIereJnEYPQGKaZ0mYm_TZHaSB_Wlq-29jn4u5l43W_XtOw/s640/Screen+Shot+2015-06-18+at+3.52.30+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfD0BAJMRWlv1M12tsi32telIzQ8AfQEL-4kW2LXj3Sk52HDWCv-2rVzZjhH5q7WUeBiCihSKeU8b6Y-BW1IdJQ27xWFJUs-bu5x1hudkfc9cyn5AE4bGEFSWKFT2D-1mB86fZhF4B6bA/s1600/Screen+Shot+2015-06-18+at+3.52.37+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfD0BAJMRWlv1M12tsi32telIzQ8AfQEL-4kW2LXj3Sk52HDWCv-2rVzZjhH5q7WUeBiCihSKeU8b6Y-BW1IdJQ27xWFJUs-bu5x1hudkfc9cyn5AE4bGEFSWKFT2D-1mB86fZhF4B6bA/s640/Screen+Shot+2015-06-18+at+3.52.37+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqyQmeBJV7Gte-R1zgLh_Q53I9oNvi9DgxjwP46ycY5-EAm0alkdZbR9lzplnAzpZ_aSHeoSSLRVTMAnFzbLcT3ejOUmq8kf9hwBX8QoRetI8OUxxRJ3DiVWkymBoWgNTw_j-O-wo1QWM/s1600/Screen+Shot+2015-06-18+at+3.52.42+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqyQmeBJV7Gte-R1zgLh_Q53I9oNvi9DgxjwP46ycY5-EAm0alkdZbR9lzplnAzpZ_aSHeoSSLRVTMAnFzbLcT3ejOUmq8kf9hwBX8QoRetI8OUxxRJ3DiVWkymBoWgNTw_j-O-wo1QWM/s640/Screen+Shot+2015-06-18+at+3.52.42+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsMfPMTmC0cZQBQuuRN2r0pGfJ7jwH5IrwZDVDDg-OlXJHHk-7VtZ3C_3C87aZl6HRplp_PNCNbFxU0wnRBLIdb9TrHA9n6zlEJIDfe_A4WZupZVBU_AsFHJtJqGurWOJiBhF5ILneE5o/s1600/Screen+Shot+2015-06-18+at+3.52.46+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsMfPMTmC0cZQBQuuRN2r0pGfJ7jwH5IrwZDVDDg-OlXJHHk-7VtZ3C_3C87aZl6HRplp_PNCNbFxU0wnRBLIdb9TrHA9n6zlEJIDfe_A4WZupZVBU_AsFHJtJqGurWOJiBhF5ILneE5o/s640/Screen+Shot+2015-06-18+at+3.52.46+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGQ_DB1m0QlQVCedYD-bHtqhIFOwM9rgoHetuQmNOlU2tDZCgOO0h5Ql8vGHs4VREzYTX5MAKC0GFrS4vBD9BxC_XcJu3cYv8Wp1lczGRI-SyJSK9YBiSuQBmsTYfuDRZa6zQypGQZBoo/s1600/Screen+Shot+2015-06-18+at+3.52.54+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGQ_DB1m0QlQVCedYD-bHtqhIFOwM9rgoHetuQmNOlU2tDZCgOO0h5Ql8vGHs4VREzYTX5MAKC0GFrS4vBD9BxC_XcJu3cYv8Wp1lczGRI-SyJSK9YBiSuQBmsTYfuDRZa6zQypGQZBoo/s640/Screen+Shot+2015-06-18+at+3.52.54+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkSCFeH2Rh5g-8cthCYNPNiRKVB2aEXyjsKCGxjkYt7BigZoKk1XBKXdb-1Nrg4mi8RgYD0_kC94Ru_3Rlaw3d44DMgie3WEmMvkK4RDRNV6Cx0BkY44WZrv8P77r0RK1RuAjEarMrmLY/s1600/Screen+Shot+2015-06-18+at+3.52.58+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkSCFeH2Rh5g-8cthCYNPNiRKVB2aEXyjsKCGxjkYt7BigZoKk1XBKXdb-1Nrg4mi8RgYD0_kC94Ru_3Rlaw3d44DMgie3WEmMvkK4RDRNV6Cx0BkY44WZrv8P77r0RK1RuAjEarMrmLY/s640/Screen+Shot+2015-06-18+at+3.52.58+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> For this exercise, we are only examining trades where Team A traded two draft picks to Team B for a single draft pick in return. Any transaction involving future considerations, promises, contract rights or minor leaguers was disqualified from our study.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> So...</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhauK8XyOkLgvE1DtmXysxCE6WsOpw1hjzj40B7rzzGavUHIezqbUYExVEWSlZ91azRqosjHjTASZZm3SfABeTyPwyj612ZqbH7k7oOAT9MJnG4uBUVNCZMSyxF4vq-4hi7Cs6sDB62yA8/s1600/SalaryCapEraDPFlopTurnRiver.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="404" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhauK8XyOkLgvE1DtmXysxCE6WsOpw1hjzj40B7rzzGavUHIezqbUYExVEWSlZ91azRqosjHjTASZZm3SfABeTyPwyj612ZqbH7k7oOAT9MJnG4uBUVNCZMSyxF4vq-4hi7Cs6sDB62yA8/s640/SalaryCapEraDPFlopTurnRiver.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Trades of this formula since 2005, where <b>Flop</b> ranges from 7th to 81st overall</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> The “<b>flop</b>” is the best draft pick in the deal, listed below on the left. The “<b>turn</b>” is the 2nd highest draft pick, usually fairly close to the flop. The “<b>river</b>” is the third ‘throw-in’ pick, designed to be just the addition needed to the “turn” to acquire the “flop” in a bundled trade. Remember, since the 1st overall pick is obviously the most valued selection, the graph is formatted so less (or lower) is better (or more valuable).</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Here is the itemized list of trades, specifically when a lone draft pick was traded for two lower draft picks. No players, contracts or other assets were included in trade… just the draft picks. Only trades since the 2005 NHL Entry Draft. The [ ] indicates at the time of trade, the draft pick was for the following draft, and its precise number was not known at the time. The [[ ]] indicates the draft pick was for the draft two years away, and so forth.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#07 traded for #09 & #40 ———— (6/20/08)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#12 traded for #17 & #28 ———— (6/20/08)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#12 traded for #16 & #41 ———— (7/30/05)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#12 traded for #13 & [#74] ———- (6/20/08)</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> From these results, upgrading a mid-1st round pick, even only a few selections upward, proves very pricy. These trades suggest a trading a mid-1st round pick for an early-1st round pick requires packaging a 2nd round pick as well. To nobody’s surprise, this further demonstrates the monstrosity of a package that could be asked by and/or sent to Arizona, should Don Maloney be serious about trading down the franchise’s 3rd overall pick. Do you think Arizona would accept or reject an offer from Toronto packaging their 4th & 24th overall picks? </span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#14 traded for #21 & #42 ———— (6/22/12)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#15 traded for #19 & #59 ———— (6/25/10)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#15 traded for #18 & [#70] ———- (6/20/08)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#16 traded for #19 & #42 ———— (6/22/07)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#16 traded for #20 & #53 ———— (6/24/06)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#18 traded for #24 & #70 ———— (6/22/07)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#20 traded for #23 & #84 ———— (6/26/09)</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Relevant to the rumors of Edmonton open to trading its #16 overall pick in the upcoming 2015 draft. Once again, upgrading a mid-to-late 1st rounder requires an additional 2nd or 3rd round pick. </span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#20 traded for #29 & [#41] ———- (7/30/05)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#21 traded for #30 & #36 ———— (6/22/07)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#21 traded for #26 & #37 ———— (6/26/09)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#21 traded for #23 & #54 ———— (6/20/08)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#22 traded for #30 & #39 ———— (6/24/11)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#23 traded for #24 & [#73] ———- (6/20/08)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#24 traded for #35 & #48 ———— (6/24/11)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#24 traded for #44 & #48 ———— (6.23/01)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#25 traded for #30 & #77 ———— (6/24/06)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#27 traded for #47 & #52 ———— (7/30/15)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#28 traded for #35 & #39 ———— (6/20/08)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#28 traded for #41 & [#57] ———- (6/22/08)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#29 traded for #32 & #75 ———— (6/26/09)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#30 traded for #35 & #58 ———— (6/25/10)</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Here the table slides towards something like 2x 2nd rounders for a late-1st rounder. Or, upgrading a late-1st rounder a few selections for an additional 3rd rounder.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#35 traded for #38 & #69 ———— (6/23/07)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#38 traded for #46 & #76 ———— (6/21/08)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#41 traded for [#58] & 84 ———— (6/23/07)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#45 traded for #56 & #66 ———— (7/30/05</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#46 traded for #49 & [#105] ——— (6/21/08)</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> These trades suggest upgrading a 2nd rounder require conceding an additional 3rd rounder. Or, a late-2nd rounder & late 3rd-rounder for a mid-2nd rounder.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#47 traded for #59 & [#78] ———- (6/25/11)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#47 traded for #49 & #109 ———- (6/26/11)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#47 traded for #89 & #102 ———- (7/30/15)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#56 traded for #62 & #92 ———— (6/27/09)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#59 traded for #69 & #99 ———— (6/26/11)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#59 traded for [#39] & #119 ——— (7/30/05)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#60 traded for #70 & #100 ———- (6/25/11)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">[#63] traded for #107 & #137 ——- (6/27/09)</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> The going rate for upgrading continues to scale down, as upgrading a 2nd-or-3rd rounder costs an additional 4th rounder. An early-3rd round begins to go for a late-3rd round & 4th rounder.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#66 traded for #79 & #109 ———- (6/24/09)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#68 traded for #72 & #102 ———- (6/21/08)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#71 traded for #77 & #109 ———- (6/26/11)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#71 traded for #98 & #126 ———- (6/24/06)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#73 traded for [#108] & #162 ——- (7/30/05)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#74 traded for #84 & #107 ———- (6/27/09)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#74 traded for #81 & #101 ———- (6/21/08)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#74 traded for #87 & #96 ———— (7/30/05) </span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#75 traded for #80 & #200 ———- (6/24/06) </span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#76 traded for #99 & #111 ———- (6/24/06)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#77 traded for #96 & #107 ———- (6/25/11) </span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#81 traded for [#66] & #169 ——— (6/25/11) </span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#88 traded for #115 & #119 ——— (6/24/06) </span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihaLNZfRIwnaMsGlb3QZUlfLoUXHAoilQRi1vWcmtMJl0e8OgJQiEzOa0Qsm-NoLbEQ3Cj5yomowXYVRzs98ScQ9Y0hnAeLhUQSRAGrMebcpTHbr6k2BBQoXNVO-8ul_gCoZlpdhKehAs/s1600/salcapDPpart3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="404" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihaLNZfRIwnaMsGlb3QZUlfLoUXHAoilQRi1vWcmtMJl0e8OgJQiEzOa0Qsm-NoLbEQ3Cj5yomowXYVRzs98ScQ9Y0hnAeLhUQSRAGrMebcpTHbr6k2BBQoXNVO-8ul_gCoZlpdhKehAs/s640/salcapDPpart3.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">Trades of this formula since 2005, where <b>Flop</b> ranges from 29th to 200th overall</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="p2">
<br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> The late-3rd rounders tend to go for 2x 4th rounders. Upgrading a 3rd rounder goes for a cheap rate of only an additional 4th or 5th rounder. As we can see by the graph above, by this point the Turn & River become extremely interchangeable, and more variable in ascertaining a Flop.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#92 traded for [#117] & [[#148]] — (6/21/08) </span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#95 traded for [#93] & #154 ——— (6/23/07) </span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#97 traded for #107 & #137 ——— (6/21/08)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#98 traded for #108 & #173 ——— (6/24/06)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#104 traded for #114 & #144 ——- (6/24/06)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#109 traded for [#111] & [#191] — (6/23/12)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#110 traded for #141 & #171 ——- (6/24/06)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
</div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#111 traded for [#110] & #211 —— (6/21/08)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#112 traded for #116 & #146 ——- (6/26/10)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#116 traded for #139 & #147 ——- (6/23/07)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#118 traded for #132 & #193 ——- (6/25/11)</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> The going rate for 4th-rounders go for a pair of 5th rounders, or a 5th & 6th. When upgrading, the later the 4th rounder pursued, the more the upgrade cost floats towards being a 7th rounder.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">[#126] traded for #155 & #160 —— (6/26/11)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#141 traded for #193 & [#202] —— (7/30/05)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">[#150] traded for #176 & (#212) —- (6/27/09)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#158 traded for #169 & #199 ——- (6/26/10)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#161 traded for #188 & #196 ——- (6/24/06)</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> 5th rounders begin to go for a couple of packaged 6th & 7th rounders, or even just a pair of 7th rounders. Upgrading a 5th rounder becomes practically free, as a 7th rounder is the lowest form of draft pick utility in trading.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">[#166] traded for #190 & (#211) —- (6/27/09)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">[#177] traded for #210 & (#211) —- (6/26/09)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">[#178] traded for #188 & (#212) —- (6/27/09)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">[#182] traded for #194 & (#212) —- (6/23/12)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#183 traded for [#191] & (#212) —- (6/23/12)</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1">#200 traded for [#208] & (#211) —- (6/26/10)</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<br /><span class="s1"></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span></div>
<br />
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> The (#211) & (#212) draft picks above actually represent zero draft picks actually involved in trade, as they represent the pick AFTER the last pick in the draft. There is no “upgrading” in the 6th or 7th rounds per say, but teams will acquire 6th or 7th rounders for the current year’s draft, in exchange for similar picks the following year, where it’s an unknown gamble as to whether they will end up higher or lower than this year’s pick. </span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> All in all, before guesstimating what draft pick could possibly warrant returning another in a trade, we offer this neatly archived listing of salary cap era draft pick trades. </span></div>
S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-30092887186516225022015-06-17T04:02:00.000-07:002015-06-17T11:24:08.379-07:00Thoughts on the Idea of a Nash/Stamkos Trade<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEwgu1_pWNprG2jUbDM0ARoQrpJhCj2aC7qEjeS9d41F4xiW-8nbnyhtiKf_pWLq_Wql0V7zzPsyGoCo8eIjgHwiYSmwVOfT-JeL3SIV8i-eZ8fD6cFr5mWvX52uxZooR3vhVDDYEAbHw/s1600/rangersweb11s-3-web.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEwgu1_pWNprG2jUbDM0ARoQrpJhCj2aC7qEjeS9d41F4xiW-8nbnyhtiKf_pWLq_Wql0V7zzPsyGoCo8eIjgHwiYSmwVOfT-JeL3SIV8i-eZ8fD6cFr5mWvX52uxZooR3vhVDDYEAbHw/s640/rangersweb11s-3-web.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Other than <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/don-cherry-takes-aim-at-jon-cooper-for-treatment-of-steven-stamkos-1.3116187" target="_blank">some unsubstantiated tweets from Don Cherry</a>, there’s really no basis to suspect or conclude a Nash/Stamkos trade is anywhere in the realistic future. Yet I thought I’d take a moment to share some feelings about the very idea of such a trade, and evaluate its merits and reasoning. Again, <b>I am NOT reporting a likelihood of this trade. </b>I’m poking around the inert idea of it, seeing how such a big-named swap would go over in concert with a few key factors to consider.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
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<span class="s1"> So...</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Here’s the tricky thing about evaluating a given Nash/Stamkos trade:</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Stamkos has a <a href="http://alongtheboards.com/2014/12/trade-stamkos/" target="_blank">no-movement clause on the final year</a> his contract, so he’d have to approve any trade. The only conceivable reason that Tampa would trade their franchise asset would likely be a trade quest made by SS himself. That, and if Stamkos’ approved destinations were so limited, would be one of the few reasons why Tampa would approach New York. Of all the teams for Tampa to swap scorers with in such a trade, their chief rival of the Eastern Conference would unlikely be the favorable preference.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Martin St. Louis asked out of Tampa, <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/eye-on-hockey/24457603/nhl-rumors-martin-st-louis-requested-trade-from-lightning-last-month" target="_blank">among other reported reasons</a>, to be geographically closer to his home in Connecticut. Should SS demand a trade, it’ll likely include more suitors than strictly Tri-State proxies. So I wouldn’t jump out of my chair to compare the Martin St. Louis exile to that of a hypothetical Stamkos jettison.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuVm4sSOdNqCyw54YpT15_IenzlW-EeZnlzHzEIn9SEx3DtMq5rsT4XnD5mdo8DTZJPg2fxX7BCRxQZR4YFaPbw0HjHhpKvrcOS3wHaQDAC75stCYnekLEOAhjfbVYVkBe9FpNNfVwwZs/s1600/stamkos.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuVm4sSOdNqCyw54YpT15_IenzlW-EeZnlzHzEIn9SEx3DtMq5rsT4XnD5mdo8DTZJPg2fxX7BCRxQZR4YFaPbw0HjHhpKvrcOS3wHaQDAC75stCYnekLEOAhjfbVYVkBe9FpNNfVwwZs/s640/stamkos.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> However, if we’re supposing a Nash/Stamkos trade of some capacity, we’re still assuming Tampa does not have the leverage it normally would in unloading a big name. One would think it’s all but a given that Tampa will throw the big money at Steven before his final contract year burns away. And even if Tampa were to shop Stamkos on the trading block after contract negotiations dwindled, it would likely be sometime next season near the trade deadline… not in the Summer of 2015.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> But for the sake of argument, we’ll assume this is the case: Stamkos informs General Manager Steve Yzerman he wants to be traded and is not interested in renewing his contract in Florida. </span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> As of today, Rick Nash’s contract contains a full no-movement clause. But in a few weeks on July 1st, <a href="http://nypost.com/2015/05/31/deal-nash-talbot-where-the-rangers-can-go-from-here/" target="_blank">it will convert into a limited no-trade-clause</a>… presumably one where Nash submits a list of teams he will not accept a trade to. It’s unknown how many teams he can list, but it would be doubtful that Tampa would be specifically blacklisted. Typical teams would include Buffalo, Edmonton, and Arizona… teams with unattractive geography in addition to an abysmal franchise. Tampa is a contender, with an arguably enjoyable culture. </span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> So in terms of required permission, Stamkos would seem to have much more control in yay-or-nay of an arranged transaction between the two clubs than that of Nash. </span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> But another question: Who’s the more valued asset? <a href="https://www.fantasysp.com/start/nhl/172140/rick-nash-or-steven-stamkos" target="_blank">Stamkos or Nash?</a></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Stamkos is the better player. He’s scored 0.56 goals-per-game through his 7 total seasons in the NHL. Other than the 2013-14 season where he missed several months with a broken leg, <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/stamkos-joins-elite-group-with-goal-no-250/" target="_blank">Stamkos has finished 1st or 2nd in goals scored since his 20th birthday</a>. Nash, on the other hand, has produced 0.47 goals-per-game since becoming a Ranger in July 2012.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Stamkos is five-and-a-half years younger than Nash, suggesting he has that many more years ahead of him than his counterpart. <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/3/13/5500522/nhl-scoring-stats-rates-age-analysis" target="_blank">Given historical trends</a>, we’re seeing Stamkos in his absolute prime, while Nash will be expected to gradually decline. Had he been healthy, Stamkos <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/projecting-2014-canadian-olympic-team-whom-victory-basically-173448193--nhl.html" target="_blank">would’ve been 1st or 2nd line for Team Canada in the 2014 Olympics</a>. Nash was 4th line.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> There’s very little to suggest Nash, all-else-equal, as the superior asset. He’s not. SS is.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPWLtu9uRRDABuuQ1ZntlSIOCNnlimMNzk5Bx9dHbwxqVGqE4X0-AuU3I41w7NvVPxjIMN5La1k5A3e13Z_zJTFdbuaO3yTcxBjcMO0MzfWrWIr8JNcuJm6BOmKrURLrI8B-52EL_zuLw/s1600/Points_aging_1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPWLtu9uRRDABuuQ1ZntlSIOCNnlimMNzk5Bx9dHbwxqVGqE4X0-AuU3I41w7NvVPxjIMN5La1k5A3e13Z_zJTFdbuaO3yTcxBjcMO0MzfWrWIr8JNcuJm6BOmKrURLrI8B-52EL_zuLw/s640/Points_aging_1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> However: what about from a contractual standpoint?</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Stamkos is a year away from hitting the open market, where he could field dozens of maximum-salary offers. So of course, a team acquiring him in a trade knows the risk that he could just end up being a 1-year rental. It’s all but guaranteed that a team interested in trading for him this summer would be adamant towards re-signing him to a monster contractual commitment.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Nash on the other hand?</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> While tit-for-tat he falls inferior to Stamkos, in the wonky world of pro sports contracts, Nash maintains a clear superiority. Nash, with a cap hit of $300,000 more than Stamkos, has 3 seasons remaining on his contract. This means a team acquiring Nash would have his services ensured until 2018. That’s thrice the certainty versus the team acquiring Stamkos.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Why wouldn’t Tampa trade Stamkos for a replacement center?</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Interestingly enough, Stamkos was not relied upon much as a center during the 2015 postseason, but <a href="http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/lightning/steven-stamkos-feeling-comfortable-at-wing/2230393" target="_blank">more so as a winger</a>. Valtteri Filppula (15.7), Tyler Johnson (13.6) & Brian Boyle (11.5) all took more faceoffs-per-game than Stamkos (8.7). In fact it would make sense if Tampa was looking to unload one of their centers to relieve the crowding, and stand pat with the top-3 they remain with now.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Why wouldn’t New York trade Nash for a replacement winger?</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> We will assume New York has every intention of centers Derek Stepan & Derrick Brassard returning as the team’s 1st & 2nd pivots for the 2015-16 season. If a Nash/Stamkos swap is to truly be realistic, it would suggest to me that Broadway would be <a href="http://fulltiltnyr.com/mission-critical-finding-way-get-kevin-hayes-wing/" target="_blank">wishing for Kevin Hayes to be put back on wing</a>, thus opening a hole in the center lineup.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> No, Stamkos wouldn’t be their 3rd line center; but if Hayes is put at wing, then Nash being traded for a center makes a lot more sense. It would also offer theory that the Rangers identified a lack of center depth as a flaw in the team, and are apt to correct it. With Stamkos, Stepan & Brassard, head coach Alain Vigneault would have all the liberty in the world to feverishly roll 3 lines interchangeably, <a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015/03/av-rangers-continue-to-roll-lines-is.html" target="_blank">which he's enjoyed doing</a> both of his years in New York.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> So Stamkos is the better player, but Nash has more ensured service under contract. </span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_1mIaMTK3aAa9SlqjphBPjsSFCx7_fykQXvHgHn3E-M_nkBCM4ZtCVdy6gT3RUpcVfP1n7WLZSfubXuBzmUT9SFPxaCesmz_5hxR4tVF0WZhvoasauZXUxWvZTD0nRltdeZXjstSdulc/s1600/0115s4-nashjersey-60px-rgb.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_1mIaMTK3aAa9SlqjphBPjsSFCx7_fykQXvHgHn3E-M_nkBCM4ZtCVdy6gT3RUpcVfP1n7WLZSfubXuBzmUT9SFPxaCesmz_5hxR4tVF0WZhvoasauZXUxWvZTD0nRltdeZXjstSdulc/s640/0115s4-nashjersey-60px-rgb.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> What would be the side dishes in a Stamkos/Nash trade?</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Stamkos is only contracted to score another 30-50 goals, while Nash could reasonably be expected to deliver 60-100 before UFA expiration. Yet trading Stamkos includes his exclusive negotiation rights, so how much can Tampa viably treat him as an asset projected to score more than 50 goals? How much can Tampa say “it’s not our problem if you can’t re-sign Stamkos, we’re trading him like a player under contract for more than a year.” Conversely, how well would a team like New York respond to that supposed evaluation of Stamkos from the Lightning’s end?</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> This is a tough thing to configure. It would really depend on how both traders assessed Stamkos’ chances of re-signing with his new team… as well as how both parties predict Nash’s calibre of contribution will hold up the next 3 years. Honestly I think we’ll just leave this discussion here, as attaching a draft pick to either side of the trade seems arguably valid. Let me just say a Stamkos/Nash swap wouldn’t be the craziest trade in the world, but it would just require a certain aligning of the stars from the Stamkos camp.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> I will say that both the Rangers and the Lightning had fine campaigns, and <a href="http://www.vegasinsider.com/nhl/odds/futures/" target="_blank">both will be the Eastern teams to beat next October</a>. While we see franchises make notable moves to go from ‘very good’ team to ‘excellent’ team, there is just as often the team that feels no need to go out and make sweeping changes. A dynamic move between two clubs of the same conference often occurs when both teams are willing to experiment to get to the upper stratosphere. </span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Both of these teams are already there, which is why a blockbuster like this may not even be sought out for discussions by Tampa in the first place… EVEN IF Stamkos does actually want out of Tampa AND approves of Broadway for relocation.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> The only other quirky reasoning that comes to mind is this: both players, coming off of admirable postseason runs in the Eastern Conference, have their highest-paid forwards receiving criticism for lack of postseason scoring. Nash scored “just” 0.74 points-per-game, while Stamkos notched 0.69. Both teams swapping “underperforming” juggernauts could have merit, if the belief is a dual change in scenery would be mutually beneficial to both teams and players. No, not an enthralling argument, but an interesting footnote to observe.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> You never know, <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A28591-2004Mar3.html" target="_blank">wilder trades have happened unexpectedly</a>...</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Here’s a look at both teams’ guesstimated lines for next season if a straight-up Nash/Stamkos trade actually happened:</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: center;">
<b>TAMPA BAY</b></div>
<div class="p2">
<br /></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1">Killorn -------- Filppula --------- Nash</span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1">Palat --------- Johnson ----- Kucherov</span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1">Brown -------- Boyle -------- Callahan</span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1">Drouin ----- Pacquette - Marchessault</span></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: center;">
<b>NEW YORK</b></div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1">Kreider --------- Stamkos ------ Fast</span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1">Zuccarello ----- Stepan ------ Hayes</span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1">Hagelin ------- Brassard ----- Miller</span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="s1">Glass ----------- Moore ------ ??????</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> </span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-15808557626851472162015-06-15T12:40:00.001-07:002015-06-15T13:18:56.420-07:00Does Henrik Lundqvist's Contract HURT or HELP the NY Rangers?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2Ueuu1d6VX0hyphenhyphen4TofYLo601O4LOWqKw9lTwgcIs83r6TnJllBQNrlyNtohUcuqtpZZ0xlMUF2SsUP95ciiwJWjBfD8c4WvZ5WEdJSQ5jT1vwuti2nTou9TxhHmXP4lFmGBGWUpW7aIE8/s1600/1394402423000-Henrik-Lundqvist-Rangers-300th-victory.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2Ueuu1d6VX0hyphenhyphen4TofYLo601O4LOWqKw9lTwgcIs83r6TnJllBQNrlyNtohUcuqtpZZ0xlMUF2SsUP95ciiwJWjBfD8c4WvZ5WEdJSQ5jT1vwuti2nTou9TxhHmXP4lFmGBGWUpW7aIE8/s400/1394402423000-Henrik-Lundqvist-Rangers-300th-victory.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
There's <a href="http://thehockeywriters.com/are-these-goalies-making-too-much/" target="_blank">some debate</a> that <a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/l/lundqhe01.html" target="_blank">Henrik </a><a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/l/lundqhe01.html" target="_blank">Lundqvist</a>'s league-leading salary of $8.5 million per year is too much. More specifically, some Rangers fans feel it<a href="http://doinow.com/the-decade-long-saga-of-henrik-lundqvist-my-final-words-on-king-contract-why-lundqvist-is-overpaid-when-lundqvist-soured-me-will-the-rangers-ever-win-with-hank-and-his-cap-hit-examining-the-nhl/" target="_blank"> hurts the team's chances at a Stanley Cup</a> since all that money is not allocated towards forwards nor defensemen. So with the 2014-15 NHL regular season statistics locked in the books from now to eternity, I thought I'd spend this summer day snooping around this theory. Here we go...<br />
<br />
First I took all goaltenders who faced a minimum of 328 shots in the regular season (or faced a minimum of 4 shots on goal per team game during the season). This narrowed the field to 61 NHL goalies from which to extrapolate our data. Then I looked at their total <i><b>Goals Saved Above Replacement</b></i>, a <a href="http://ingoalmag.com/analysis/gsaa-essential-statistic-evaluating-goaltenders/" target="_blank">nifty stat meant to compare a goaltender to the theoretical average goalie</a> in the given season. I also jotted down their time on ice (rounded to the nearest minute) & 2014-15 salary cap (Average Annual Value).<br />
<br />
<a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_v-V01FHAveUxx0FfGZ_SZfb6pZg-tdtUTvyGOhJByQ/edit?usp=sharing" target="_blank">Here's the spreadsheet</a> in case anyone would like to check my work.<br />
<br />
When tabulating the averages of this data, we arrived at:<br />
<br />
- The average NHL goalie stopped 1.037377 Goals Above Average in 2014-15<br />
- The average NHL goalie played 2,267 minutes in 2014-15<br />
- The average NHL goalie had a cap hit of $3,011,066 in 2014-15<br />
<br />
Taking these three findings into account, we can bundle them into a single, concise "going rate" of the average NHL goalie in 2014-15:<br />
<br />
- The typical NHL goalie stopped 0.027525 Goals Above Average per 60 minutes, paid at a $3,011,066 cap hit<br />
<br />
So...<br />
<br />
How does King Henrik compare relative to that clearinghouse rate?<br />
<br />
- Lundqvist stopped 10.43 Goals Above Average in 2014-15<br />
- Lundqvist played 2,743 minutes in 2014-15<br />
- Lundqvist had a cap hit of $8,500,000 in 2014-15<br />
<br />
Therefore...<br />
<br />
- Lundqvist stopped 0.228144 Goals Above Average per 60 minutes, paid at a $8,500,000 cap hit<br />
<br />
How does Lundqvist directly contrast against our mean findings?<br />
<br />
- Lundqvist's GSAA/hour rate was 8.29 times the NHL's average goalie rate<br />
- Lundqvist's salary cap hit was 2.82 times the NHL's average goalie cap hit<br />
<br />
In essence, Lundqvist performed over 8.3 times the market rate for only 2.8 times the price!<br />
<br />
If you go to a supermarket to purchase frozen TV dinners... but they have a special offering 8.3 times the amount you intended to get, but for less than triple the price you were expecting to pay... kinda hard to categorize that as anything but a good deal.<br />
<br />
Why did I make frozen TV dinners the example? Because a frozen meal purchased today will likely expire right around the time Lundqvist's play will [historically] decline. Do we see Lundqvist becoming anything less than an above-average goalie at any point in the next few years? It seems highly unlikely, barring a massive injury and/or drop-off. While year-to-year subtle regression is the historical norm, <a href="http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/03/21/how-well-do-goalies-age-a-look-at-a-goalie-aging-curve/" target="_blank">HockeyGraphs analysis suggest</a> at least 3 years before major regression.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrmUJLpKoHVVjqAcO3rGJhjQY97H9ZhGN9mP8EG51ZMEdT57XXG_DU2XK0n5DjYgSBWhS97ohXkIQVZWTjvXO1Zu4xwpoD098wQuRax0ZieF6aoRdboZODABdWs-LGjnGzHShtCCp57wc/s1600/628x471.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrmUJLpKoHVVjqAcO3rGJhjQY97H9ZhGN9mP8EG51ZMEdT57XXG_DU2XK0n5DjYgSBWhS97ohXkIQVZWTjvXO1Zu4xwpoD098wQuRax0ZieF6aoRdboZODABdWs-LGjnGzHShtCCp57wc/s640/628x471.jpg" width="478" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
So even with his league-leading super-hefty cap hit, Lundqvist was still an absolute bargain in the 2014-15 season, the 1st year of his 6-year contract.<br />
<br />
Let's look at a few graphs to evaluate Lundqvist's legitimacy as a top-paid netminder in the post-post-salary-cap era:<br />
<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAfM8FuZ_bpJS64X7usnoMP_me_T32Ko0Wqd0K6U24d32h67JwmedQqkI88QZcbadYW_efau7ytTUmKWHpQVAehfo8NSk7lGKSjMRN1G2eJ1CzQu2Q-euqqHiDCaYjFUIUgrAYhWMkocw/s1600/BDNGFN+F.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="440" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAfM8FuZ_bpJS64X7usnoMP_me_T32Ko0Wqd0K6U24d32h67JwmedQqkI88QZcbadYW_efau7ytTUmKWHpQVAehfo8NSk7lGKSjMRN1G2eJ1CzQu2Q-euqqHiDCaYjFUIUgrAYhWMkocw/s640/BDNGFN+F.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
- Lundqvist has had 10 consecutive seasons of either accumulating 30 wins and/or leading the NHL in wins during a shortened season.<br />
- Lundqvist, compared to the top dogs of the past decade, has yet to have a below-average season.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifWyIDX9nHkobD4NZ1qziOFL75TBipiKRmU2R4pfL3zmTIbFxrli6tnIaFR0ydtxVeFwD2r5ST9GMKN_WLHm5dYGTa1oVhEM736PQgeDRPrGpV0FDTUuhFLTcK9hb4bGuOVfEqjp9mxrA/s1600/HMKI.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="440" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifWyIDX9nHkobD4NZ1qziOFL75TBipiKRmU2R4pfL3zmTIbFxrli6tnIaFR0ydtxVeFwD2r5ST9GMKN_WLHm5dYGTa1oVhEM736PQgeDRPrGpV0FDTUuhFLTcK9hb4bGuOVfEqjp9mxrA/s640/HMKI.png" width="640" /></a></div>
- Lundqvist's first 9 years saw him win the Vezina once (2012), where he received 80% of the votes, smashing the record for most-lopsided Vezina voting result since votes were made public in 1981-82.<br />
- Though his streak may very well end in a few weeks, Lundqvist has gone 9 consecutive seasons while placing no worse than 6th in yearly Vezina votes. In other words, there has yet to be a season where Lundqvist was not voted one of the Top-6 NHL goalies by the league's general managers<br />
- Lundqvist has never gone a season without receiving votes for at least 1 NHL trophy.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6pAQqwbz6vMujPsPOUd7OtTsZUfK_fWVEIb-pvB9_boRrgGMPb0hidFNRhmWZo1L0KBGv2ewtZFAGNmU3k6toXv4kQIAkesARXtrgRmUcR5t2zHyYxXVPmOETFN8DzqCjuP4olx_LjBA/s1600/gdfsagr.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="137" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6pAQqwbz6vMujPsPOUd7OtTsZUfK_fWVEIb-pvB9_boRrgGMPb0hidFNRhmWZo1L0KBGv2ewtZFAGNmU3k6toXv4kQIAkesARXtrgRmUcR5t2zHyYxXVPmOETFN8DzqCjuP4olx_LjBA/s640/gdfsagr.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Lundqvist's contribution to the NY Rangers last multi-round playoff runs the past 4 seasons undoubtedly suggest value, even at the steepest price in the land:<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCz9eFo_REBVnKOcNKnBVP28Yo7wONkl6XFxiarZTr6Pl3-1X6U9BYbTmRllIk3usQJNy30WAeWGEJv5p9ZGjtJUT2-zB9Rcv_UF7fckTBnGw4yWuTS6CODs8VTeOFWNCHMCahTHRVwNo/s1600/CHFodtZWgAEhZn--2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="440" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCz9eFo_REBVnKOcNKnBVP28Yo7wONkl6XFxiarZTr6Pl3-1X6U9BYbTmRllIk3usQJNy30WAeWGEJv5p9ZGjtJUT2-zB9Rcv_UF7fckTBnGw4yWuTS6CODs8VTeOFWNCHMCahTHRVwNo/s640/CHFodtZWgAEhZn--2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
So, while Lundqvist's heavy cap hit will ultimately depreciate in terms of bang-for-buck, as he is contracted until his late 30's... it is not a liability yet. In fact the numbers suggest that it unbelievably remains a bargain, at least in this point in time. In fact, until we see significant regression, there is no way someone can honestly claim Lundqvist (or his plump contract) has actually <b>hurt</b> the Rangers' chances at winning it all.<br />
<br />
Recent goalies to remain extremely productive and valuable to their team, even north of their 35th birthdays, include...<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Tim Thomas</b></div>
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<a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/t/thomati01.html" target="_blank"><img border="0" height="68" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWGu4Y4VWjrhYFswgcGx7OHPTA5NbR8-z9LIWF1A7EJWUHIVRXjeq7A98XNBcbiekiA_nUiloJZ9xF6BmspKGzSr1iGjMDL4aBMWwiqVwRtzDuDAbUlVxl6A78XCtdPimsm2pJqfNYzuc/s640/fhdgfh.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Dominik Hasek</b></div>
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<a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/h/hasekdo01.html" target="_blank"><img border="0" height="102" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkqR3dFLbGCc18RYoKxG4L1dK7at4SP9Ih8EWs4s-HLlFEUKQwnkS-Dk2-JlOHHI7ZdS7_jUNYogCwNp9-Cx8xhCUOY8viRokyRXQHkEXSNdBoQjiFMGOMjYCAKVsfSysga-NEFloAH8k/s640/HTESGH.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
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<b>Patrick Roy</b></div>
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<a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/r/roypa01.html" target="_blank"><img border="0" height="64" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLiCRfouXwy2FKpllILxBTMk56jKDl4QmtwOup2jTvsSX4P_hwh0I5KmEXLO4weoTrr-ccK9f7hmMhyphenhyphen7FqIsguIC51g4QY-XXD2PJ5mM1zlw7zwhFlHDuq7fFQMq8m0decZW3InTBxye0/s640/dfahfdas.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b> </b>Has Lundqvist not earned the right to be compared to Thomas, Hasek or Roy? While all these players went on to win a Cup (which Lundqvist obviously hasn't...yet?)... he is inarguably one of, if not <i>the</i>, best goalie of his era. </div>
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Thomas & Hasek also poke holes in the theory "<i>If Lundqvist hasn't won a Cup by now, <a href="https://twitter.com/NYCTheMiC/status/609843978674966528" target="_blank">he never will!</a>"</i> That contention, plus the absolute myth that Lundqvist himself has cost the Rangers a Cup, is irrefutably flawed. Who can genuinely believe it was Lundqvist's contract which cost the Rangers the 2015 postseason, instead of, oh I don't know... The injuries to <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2444991-mats-zuccarello-injury-updates-on-rangers-stars-upper-body-and-return" target="_blank">Mats Zuccarello</a>, <a href="http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2015/06/01/battered-defense-rangers-staal-mcdonagh-girardi-yandle-all-played-injured/" target="_blank">Ryan McDonagh, Dan Girardi, Keith Yandle, & Jesper Fast? </a><br />
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If 10 consecutive coinflips are all heads, how logical is it to conclude "since there hasn't been any tails before, their never will be in the future!"<br />
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... That logic simply doesn't hold water.<br />
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Speaking of injuries... other than a few weeks in 2006, a few games in 2013, and the freak vascular injury suffered last February... Lundqvist's healthiness in his career has been absolutely remarkable. No torn ligaments, no broken bones, no concussions, no major or relevant surgery... in a decade! His high-quality production aside, surely his abnormally high attendance in regular season & playoff games also validate his contractual worth.<br />
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Quality, quantity, relativity... they all point towards Lundqvist being a resounding "positive" on the New York roster.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinZjLg1rhO8u1VNlULzYAZCCepAoU4AHhyI9H0WxhzZ3bsAGNFgpPLbfi0NqpK0iAYdcrxjlmKQBQadSWQf1rbquoJ-cExZTbWM1Cxaz573vGXrFOuR_zE_NESDQfyOGDt6anpVwYm2ss/s1600/61O8Y6%252BPMDL._SX425_.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="514" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinZjLg1rhO8u1VNlULzYAZCCepAoU4AHhyI9H0WxhzZ3bsAGNFgpPLbfi0NqpK0iAYdcrxjlmKQBQadSWQf1rbquoJ-cExZTbWM1Cxaz573vGXrFOuR_zE_NESDQfyOGDt6anpVwYm2ss/s640/61O8Y6%252BPMDL._SX425_.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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We'll be posting more goaltender analytical evaluations throughout the summer, including league-wide goaltender stats we've personally created here at SatherOnWaivers. <a href="https://twitter.com/HockeyStatMiner" target="_blank">Follow us on Twitter</a> (@HockeyStatMiner ) to receive further updates, and feel free to leave feedback as well.<br />
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All hail the [now economically validated] King!<br />
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<br />S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-36587501736047867942015-06-14T12:22:00.000-07:002015-06-14T13:00:50.686-07:00How Bonuses & Retained Salary Affect Big & Small Market NHL Teams<div class="p1">
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<i>July 6, 2013 - Jerome Iginla signs a 1-year deal with the Boston Bruins. Contract has a base pay / cap-hit of $1.8 million… but contains an additional $4.2 million in potential performance bonuses</i></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>July 23, 2013 - Jaromir Jagr signs a 1-year deal with NJ Devils. Contract has a base pay / cap-hit of $2 million… but contains an additional $2 million in potential performance bonuses</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>June 15, 2014 - Kimmo Timonen signs 1-year deal with Philadelphia Flyers. Contract has a base pay / cap-hit of $2 million… but contains $1.5 million in potential performance bonuses</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> As the NHL prepares for a stagnantly minor increase in the 2016 salary cap… teams that are already up against its ceiling will look to maneuver economically this summer. Of course, the New York Rangers are no exception. There are two particular methods of cap-friendly methodology that big-payroll clubs like Broadway will especially explore (and probably patronize). They are:</span></div>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Signing free agents to short-term contracts with small cap-hit base salaries, but hefty performance bonuses</span></li>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Acquiring a player in a trade in which that team wouldn’t especially pursue, but does this summer so long as the team they’re trading with retains salary</span></li>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i><span class="s1"></span>PERFORMANCE BONUSES</i></b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> The NHL bonus cushion is defined as 7.5% of the given salary cap ceiling. This means a team can dish out a set amount of money in performance bonuses. If bonuses exceed the bonus cushion, they are counted against the team’s cap directly for the following season (aptly called “bonus overages”). </span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Thanks to the wonderful website <a href="http://rangersunlimited.com/2014/08/21/a-look-at-kevin-hayes-contract-and-entry-level-bonuses/" target="_blank">RangersUnlimited</a>, we see Kevin Hayes’ potential performance bonuses he is eligible to unlock in the 2015-16 campaign. Each category would earn Hayes $212,500 in bonuses, with $850,000 being the max payout (he stops getting paid after four categories are achieved).</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> $212,500 if Top-Six in NYR forward ice time per game (minimum 42 games)</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> $212,500 if Top-Six in NYR forward ice time total (minimum 42 games)</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> $212,500 if 20 goals scored</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> $212,500 if 35 assists made</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> $212,500 if 60 points scored</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> $212,500 if .73 points-per-game (minimum 42 games)</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> $212,500 if Top-Three in NYR forward +/- rating</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> $212,500 if selected to/plays in NHL All-Star Game</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> $212,500 if named NHL All-Star Game MVP</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Then there is a maximum of $2 million total in attainable performance bonuses for the following end-of-season achievements:</span></div>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Top Five voting/placement for Hart, Selke and/or Rocket Richard Trophies</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Top Three voting for Lady Byng award</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Winning Conn Smythe Trophy</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Being named to 1st or 2nd NHL All-Star team by hockey writers</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Finishing Top 10 in NHL goals, assists, points or points-per-game</span></li>
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<span class="s1"> So, while Hayes can earn up to $2.85 million in performance bonuses next season… It’s very likely his actual bonuses earned will fall under $850,000... unless Hayes has a breakout season and actually unlocks the league-elite $2 million bonuses. So for all intents and purposes, we’ll treat Hayes’ maximum performance bonus for 2015-16 at $801,000.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Many of New York’s prospects on their entry-level contracts have performance bonuses as well, yet its unlikely anyone other than Brady Skjei to make the jump to the pro roster next season. (It’s currently unknown what Skjei’s max performance bonuses may be, but its extremely likely they exist on his contract).</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> If next season’s NHL salary cap is $71.5 million, then 7.5% of that (the bonus cushion) would be $5,362,500.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> So if we treat Hayes’ estimated performance bonus “threat” as $801,000… then:</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> $5,362,500 - $801,000 = $4,561,500 </span></div>
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<span class="s1"> That’s just north of $4.5 million theoretically available in performance bonuses to be expended on the free agent market this summer for the Rangers. Or, should we take Hayes’ chances at a seriously impressive season into more liberal account, plus Skjei’s unknown… Perhaps a figure of $4 million is a more realistic figure.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Should the Rangers sign coveted free agent defensemen Mike Reilly or Robbie Russo, it would almost assuredly include performance bonuses akin to Hayes’ contract. Since the new Collective Bargaining Agreement mandates a maximum entry-level base salary of $925,000 per year, the league wide bidding war for such assets will come down to bonuses.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> So… </span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Looking over our guesstimated NYR salary cap spreadsheet, the team (at first glance) looks like this:</span></div>
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If next year's salary cap is indeed approximately $71.5 million... this team simply won't fit.</div>
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<span class="s1"> However, as we’ve noted in previous article, we predict Kevin Klein & Cam Talbot to be traded away to accommodate the cap. We’ll theoretically assume this once again, replacing them with cheaper players at their respective positions…</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Now this roster is coming in snugly at $71.5 mil (Skjei could be 7th D, or a UFA signed for $925k cap hit).</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> How could the Rangers taking advantage of performance bonuses affect the buildup of this team?</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Well…</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i> “A backup goalie for 1-year, $750,000? Isn’t that a massive downgrade?”</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Talbot had a spectacular season, and it’ll be hard to replace his quality as a backup in any event. But… what the Rangers sign a veteran free agent goalie to a 1-year, $750,000 contract… with additional hundreds of thousands of dollars in bonuses? Broadway has all the bonus room in the world to sign a $1 million/yr goalie for only 75% of the (cap-hit) price.</span></div>
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<i style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></i></div>
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<i style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">“Are you suggesting singing a 4th line winger to a $925,000 contract with bonuses?”</i></div>
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<span class="s1"> This is unlikely. Usually forwards on the 4th line are so replaceable that it almost never makes sense to include performance bonuses. But… what if instead of a 4th liner getting a $925k deal with bonuses attached… we go after a 3rd line forward.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> In this regard, a pertinent question is “Does New York rely on Kevin Hayes being the team’s 3rd center going forward? Or is it better to revert him to his natural position as winger?” Looking over the impending list of Unrestricted Free Agents this summer, how about targeting a veteran centerman?</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Brad Richards, Mike Ribeiro & Mike Fisher are all 35 years old. Matt Cullen is 38. Fan-favorite (/sarcasm) Olli Jokinen is 36. </span></div>
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<span class="s1"> What if we sign one of the centers to a 1-year, $925,000 contract with performance bonuses, and slide Hayes to the 3rd line wing? Now the team could look like…</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b><i><span style="font-size: large;">RETAINED SALARIES IN TRADES</span></i></b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, teams can now acquire players in trades, with the trading team retaining up to 50% of an asset’s actual salary & cap hit. The NY Rangers exercised this liberty twice in the 2014-15 season: Arizona retained half of Keith Yandle’s remaining salary, and Minnesota retained $100,000 of James Shepherd’s contract. Both were imperative moves for Broadway to acquire these players while barely staying below the salary cap ceiling.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> We’ve seen other teams do it as well, particularly with big-payroll teams doing business with low-payroll teams. </span></div>
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<span class="s1"> And there’s the rub.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Now that players full services can be imported at cap discounts, the new CBA has carved out a brand new aspect of trade compatibility. Suddenly a team with low payroll can literally use their vast cap space as an advantage against big-market teams whom have little or none. An interesting concept, as that disconnect had historically provided small-market teams a distinct disadvantage against the big boys.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> As the Rangers seem to have little cap room for maneuverability this offseason, this concept allows for the Rangers (or any team) to fit players they normally shouldn’t be able to fit, perhaps by paying a little extra for the incoming player to come along a tad cheaper. Franchises which previously had little leverage in these matters suddenly find themselves with actionability, just as teams which had little chance at acquiring big-name players in a tight payroll can now do so feasibly.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Instead of a 4th line winger making $700,000 per year (which would probably be a low-value asset to sign)… what if the Rangers acquire someone with a $1.4 million cap hit for a 50% retention? Suddenly Fast or Miller could be put on 4th line, and a 3rd-line-or-better player can be brought on board for the price of a 4th line plug!</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><i> CONCLUSION</i></span></b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> With performance bonuses & retained salaries now in play for NHL teams, the off-season potential for moves, signings and trades have taken on an expanded realm of possibility. Major teams (like the Rangers, Blackhawks, Flyers, Maple Leafs & Bruins) can still impose their big-market advantages on free agents with that of bonuses. And yet, the teams unlikely to win bidding wars or make competitive offers find themselves holding the cards when major teams are looking to save cap space via retained salary.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> For better or worse, we find ourselves in the post-post-salary-cap-era NHL.</span></div>
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S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-12490091477120095262015-06-08T23:49:00.001-07:002015-06-09T01:54:31.520-07:00Talbot Trade Tinkering: Hudler/Russell for Talbot/Klein/Lindberg/Glass/McIlrath?<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> <a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015/05/ny-rangers-off-season-preview-needs.html" target="_blank">In our previous article</a>, we predicted <a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/t/talboca01.html" target="_blank">Cam Talbot</a> & <a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/k/kleinke01.html" target="_blank">Kevin Klein</a> would be traded by the NY Rangers this summer, largely for salary cap reasons. In today’s article, we’ll analyze a hypothetical trade with the Calgary Flames involving both players. We’ll try to figure if this is a realistic trade or not. </span></div>
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<span class="s1" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> <span style="font-size: large;"><i><b>NY Rangers</b> acquire:</i></span></span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">* = 50% of Cap Hit retained by Calgary</td></tr>
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<span class="s1" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><i> <b>Calgary Flames</b> acquire:</i></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTFZAfhY3LDcID383Stxdydf0b5ohy6tQjLLE8z-RTZ9rCgiSm-6b16nGZJSdVQvVZLT4PK3Xd1ZFLBn_GicD5YmCR1VwrWegzI7qhlhIjN8Ht4Y2Wfka8TpEs0jtTqd-LfXfMgiz-eNE/s1600/EDGDSQWRTQW.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="122" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTFZAfhY3LDcID383Stxdydf0b5ohy6tQjLLE8z-RTZ9rCgiSm-6b16nGZJSdVQvVZLT4PK3Xd1ZFLBn_GicD5YmCR1VwrWegzI7qhlhIjN8Ht4Y2Wfka8TpEs0jtTqd-LfXfMgiz-eNE/s400/EDGDSQWRTQW.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Calgary Flames could be in the market for Talbot. Like any team currently interested in Talbot, they’ll likely make a pitch to <a href="http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Devan_Dubnyk_contract_extension_talks_should_be_interesting060215" target="_blank">Devan Dubnyk</a>, should he hit the open market. Otherwise, the team could logically look to trade for Talbot. In their playoff run, Calgary <a href="http://calgaryherald.com/sports/hockey/nhl/calgary-flames/off-season-issue-flames-have-three-goalies-and-one-crease" target="_blank">rotated Jonas Hiller & Karri Ramo in net.</a> If acquiring Talbot, Calgary would have both goalies with expiring contracts next July, making the 2015-16 season a true audition for the big payday. (While prospect goalie <a href="http://thehockeywriters.com/joni-ortio-the-real-deal/" target="_blank">Joni Ortio continues to knock at the door</a>, the restricted free agent could very well remain in the AHL for another season until Hiller's contract expires).</span></li>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Much like the Rangers, Calgary has six (multi-million-dollar) defensemen already under contract through the 2015-16 season. So, if packaging Klein into the mix, it is all but essential to have a defenseman coming back on Calgary’s end. Russell is a good defenseman, but quite likely a pure rental, as his contract expires next summer, and Calgary will <a href="http://www.calgarysun.com/2015/05/12/calgary-flames-aim-to-lock-up-captain-mark-giordano" target="_blank">almost definitely offer Mark Girodano big money</a> for his oncoming extension. In short: the Flames’ chances at re-signing Russell are akin to that of New York’s <a href="http://toomanymenonthesite.com/2015/06/05/new-york-rangers-cam-talbot-trade-value/" target="_blank">chances at re-signing</a> Talbot; slim.</span></li>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1">A large question for Glen Sather & co. is to figure out if <a href="http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=127775" target="_blank">Kevin Hayes</a> is the team's optimal 3rd-line center, or should he be reinstated on the natural wing? If the latter, importing Hudler makes sense. Hurdler, much like Russell, will also be an unrestricted free agent next summer, and with the budding plethora of young centers… could a long-term contract offered to the then-33-year-old Hudler be competitive against the market? If both teams determine a “no” answer, it furthers the case for a trade such as this to make amicable sense</span></li>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Calgary would seem to fit the bill on this swap, as they’d have to pay Hudler & Russell a combined $3.3 million against the cap in retaining 50%. Since New York is pressed against the cap, and the Flames enjoyed a 2nd round exit in the postseason despite having oodles of cap space… the element of “small market team retaining salary to accommodate large market team’s payroll” ought to come into play. New York simply cannot afford this trade unless both players’ salaries are 50% retained by Calgary. Even in retaining a couple of salaries in a trade such as this, Calgary is set to have plenty of cap space for offseason maneuvering. The NY Rangers are the exact opposite.</span></li>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Glass & Klein have 2 and 3 years remaining on their contracts respectively. Talbot only has 1, but along with Ramo, he will be given every opportunity to ensure a large contract by July 2016. If Calgary believes Talbot could realistically be worthy of the team's starting goaltender position for the next several years, their prerogative in acquiring Talbot (even with Hiller's cap hit at $4.5 million for one more season) makes sense.</span></li>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><a href="http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=127604" target="_blank">Lindberg</a> and <a href="http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=116161" target="_blank">McIlrath</a> are restricted free agents (without the right of salary arbitration). They’re guaranteed multi-year value as long as tendered qualifying offers. The salary cap hit figures listed above are roughly their respective minimum qualifying offers.</span></li>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Hudler & Russell are probably rentals. If Stepan, Kreider, Hayes & Yandle are retained in Summer 2016, it seems unlikely Hudler or Russell would be re-signed. Yet, importing a quality center (to join a pair of already-capable centers), along with a big-minute defenseman for half price… well… like the trades that rented Nik Antropov, Ryan Clowe or Martin St. Louis… Sather has shown a propensity to “gamble” or “overpay” on rentals. The “win-now” philosophy embodied in Lundqvist’s age-vs-contract dynamic would certainly qualify a rental trade (perhaps such as this) to be made. I'm not sure if this is "overpayment" or "underpayment", but a trade like this (discount rentals in exchange for quality players with more easily 'guaranteed' or 'likely' future years) is right up Sather's alley.</span></li>
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<span class="s1"></span> So...<br />
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<span class="s1"> Let’s take a look at the <b>NY Rangers</b> salary cap situation should this trade be made:</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> What we see in New York packing the team to the brim for 2015-16, and having 9 to 14 contracts expire in July 2016. However, the team would have over 22 million in cap space available to make the big decisions. </span><br />
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<span class="s1"> The Rangers would improve their depth at center; should Stepan, Brassard, Hudler or Moore get injured... NY would have Hayes or Miller as available substitute centermen. While Russell-for-Klein-and-McIlrath is an improvement in the Top-6 defensive reserve... the depth of better 7th & 8th blueliners (ready to step in adequately in case of injury) remains unchanged. The big difference heading into next year in that regard wouldn't be this trade, but rather D <a href="http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=130995" target="_blank">Brady Skjei</a>, and what he may have to offer as a 7th man.</span><br />
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<span class="s1"> Don't count out soon-to-be Unrestricted Free Agent ex-collegiate defensemen <a href="http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=143097" target="_blank">Mike Reilly</a> or <a href="http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=123393" target="_blank">Robbie Russo</a> either, as the Rangers are sure to make a pitch at each prospect. While Reilly is considered the better bluechip, it is Russo the righty who would make more sense in signing. Russell, McDonagh, Staal, Yandle & Skjei are all left-handed (and in this hypothetical we are assuming McDonagh or Russell play on the right side).</span><br />
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<span class="s1"> We’d also see Calgary renting out a couple of quality skaters whom they’re less likely to re-sign next summer, thus renting them out for a crack at a franchise goalie and contracted years of depth players. </span>Even though the 2015 Unrestricted Free Agent market appears to be underwhelming, the Flames appear to be in position to be shoppers, with or without this hypothetical trade.<br />
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I'm not sure if this is a realistic trade (it would depend greatly on how Calgary would view the value of Cam Talbot, Kevin Klein & Oscar Lindberg)... but conceptually, it seems a logical place to tinker.<br />
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I won't elaborate upon this aspect, but if Hayes were somehow involved in a Talbot/Hudler/Russell trade... don't ya think Calgary would love to reunite Hayes with <a href="http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=130893" target="_blank">Johnny Gaudreau</a>? (They were linemates at Boston College).<br />
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To make this hypothetical more viable, perhaps the Rangers have to replace D Dylan McIlrath with a younger prospect who may <a href="http://www.blueshirtbanter.com/2015/2/8/7956221/could-mcilrath-allen-be-on-the-way-out" target="_blank">actually have potential upside.</a> Or, trade away even more future draft picks to secure in-the-moment NHL talent fruitful towards winning the 2016 Stanley Cup. Perhaps take out McIlrath and insert the rights to unsigned prospects such as <a href="http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=130893" target="_blank">Pavel Buchnevich</a>, <a href="http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=170123" target="_blank">Brandon Halverson</a>, or <a href="http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=160591" target="_blank">Ryan Mantha</a>?<br />
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McIlrath is largely a throw-in. He's purely interchangeable with any other non-roster asset New York could potentially offer. IN the mid-season onslaught of NYR defensemen injuries... Dylan McIlrath, along with Connor Allen, Mike Kostka and Mat Bodie, failed to make the leap from the AHL and establish any competition with Matt Hunwick as the team's 7th D. No, none of those names will make Calgary's top-7 next season (with Tyler Wotherspoon likely ahead of all of them on Calgary's depth chart). Thus... McIlrath may need to be replaced with an asset of far more substance.<br />
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If Calgary is apt to rent out Hudler & Russell on the trade market, New York's offer would have to be competitive with other fielding offers. While giving Calgary the chance at giving Talbot a chance a starting gig is good, and 3 years of moderately-priced Klein is also valuable... this deal may need more spice on New York's end for it to be closer to realistic. How much more? Hard to determine without insight of the two organizations' opinions.<br />
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As for New York's backup goalie if Talbot is traded away? Even though our estimated salary chart only lends $625,000 for a backup goalie to replace Cam... The Rangers will also have upwards of $2.5 million in performance bonuses available to dish out. Signing a veteran back-up to a small cap hit ($625k) but bonus-levied contract is not only an option, but a great way to ensure quality goaltending in case Lundqvist suffers another freak injury, without being burnt for pinching pennies.<br />
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Later this month, I'll tinker with similarly hypothetical Talbot trades involving other suitable candidates for his departure; my shortlist (in addition to Calgary) is Buffalo, Edmonton, Minnesota & San Jose. The secondary Talbot acquisition candidates would be Arizona, Dallas & Toronto. But... who knows? The market breathes in and out with Dubnyk's impending choice where to sign. Talbot's trade value will be much more defined immediately following Dubnyk's summer contract, whenever that may be.<br />
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S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-28586493553107706082015-05-31T15:52:00.000-07:002015-06-03T18:41:05.661-07:00NY Rangers Off-Season Preview: Needs & Values<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><i> This article is cut up into two halves: Needs & Values.</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i> The “Needs” section will discuss what roster needs Broadway will have this summer, and for next season, and how to digest these objectives into brainstormed solutions. In other words, ‘needs’ are a synonym for ‘how to correct roster deficiencies.’</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i> The “Values” section will take our conclusions in the “Needs” prologue and assign a measurement of ‘value’ to each asset on the roster. How valuable is Martin St. Louis or Matt Hunwick to the 2015-16 roster? We’ll elaborate on each individual as best we can.</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><b><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><span style="font-size: x-large;">Needs</span></b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> <span style="font-size: large;"> The 2014-15 New York Rangers were great, but not great enough. In the hours after elimination from the Eastern Conference Finals, countless fans have taken to social media to give their two cents on “blaming” or “assigning fault” to various aspects of the team. </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Why didn’t this team win the Cup?</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> While there’s legitimacy in taking <a href="https://twitter.com/AnsonCarterLA/status/604488085221474304" target="_blank">Ryan McDonagh’s broken foot, Marc Staal’s broken ankle</a>, & <a href="http://www.lohud.com/story/sports/nhl/rangers/2015/05/08/report-labels-mats-zuccarello-injury-sharp-concussion/27016885/" target="_blank">Mat Zuccarello’s concussion</a> all into account… That reasoning (caught forever between "reasons" and "excuses") is always rebuked with something along the lines of “every team has injuries. It’s no excuse.”</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Yes and no.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Correct, most NHL teams have pieces that are banged up and battered, somewhat nullifying the advantages or disadvantages of skaters playing through pain. The thing is this: ultimately, some teams will be more injured than others, in varying degrees of severity-of-injury, as well as degree-of-skill overall afflicted with ware-and-tare.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> I think the clearer, more important argument to have is about depth. Roster depth. As in “how many players outside of your Top-20 roster spots can you reliably inject into vital postseason games without the risk outweighing the reward?” Because while comparing hidden, discreet, nearly immeasurable baskets of comparative team injuries is virtually impossible… examining a franchises’s depth, which is the key to battling through injuries in the first place, is much more practical place to examine.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> So...</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Why didn’t this team win the Cup? Outside the small consideration of injuries (being worse than Tampa’s?) and sheer variance (luck)… The NY Rangers’ lack of roster depth ultimately prevented them from overcoming Tampa’s tenacious adversity. If you don't believe it, just look at Game 7: New York burned a roster spot on the 4th line so Hunwick <a href="http://scores.espn.go.com/nhl/boxscore?gameId=400795941" target="_blank">could only play 4:17 in the 1st period</a> while McDonagh received a cortisone shot? Only then to have a healthy, rested Hunwick not play another shift upon McDonagh's return, rendering Game 7 basically a 17-skater Broadway lineup?</span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhN2YGoEyWBioF25IJ5cUSY0kwYha2Vhk0QohDCOCsJH04U00PEjeD-DAmCqNa-k0NVYj2UTEMQY9hM_1DqI1-EAIP7sbE2OBAh_xqrDbF25ubPyVIqC43h-1xYWy66WCw2vtdJAcH5e1I/s1600/rangers-defense-11-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhN2YGoEyWBioF25IJ5cUSY0kwYha2Vhk0QohDCOCsJH04U00PEjeD-DAmCqNa-k0NVYj2UTEMQY9hM_1DqI1-EAIP7sbE2OBAh_xqrDbF25ubPyVIqC43h-1xYWy66WCw2vtdJAcH5e1I/s640/rangers-defense-11-1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> That doesn't sound like much faith in the depth of your defenseman. Either that, or a big error on the part of the caching staff... But since I'm the first to assume Alain Vigneault knows what he's doing, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and place the blame on (lack of) roster depth.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Comparing Broadway’s Top-20 roster (12 forwards, 6 defensemen, 2 goalies) to the rest of the league, it was superb. Tit-for-tat, the cream of the roster was exquisite, and very much deserving of their regular season success. </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> But what about the Top-22? In this case, that’s comparing Matt Hunwick and James Sheppard as the “extra skaters” compared to the rest of the league’s standby fill-ins. The Rangers’ Top-22 still probably fared favorably in contrast to the rest of the league (although probably even less so against Anaheim, Chicago or Tampa).</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> From the 23rd roster spot onwards? Not so much.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> It’s difficult to sit broken-boned McDonagh and Staal because they comprise so much of New York’s effective defensive core. But who would you rather have, those two performing far less than 100%… or a 3rd pair of Mike Kostka & Matt Hunwick at 100%? Yeah… the Rangers were a defensive injury away from dressing Mike Kostka (or Conor Allen, maybe).</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Remember in the 2013 NHL Playoffs, where the injuries to Marc Staal & Anton Stralman forced John Tortorella to play Michael Del Zotto & Roman Hamrlik? As if the 5-game-defeat to Boston was at all the coach’s fault… it was the General Manager (Glen Sather), as putting a lot of eggs in not a lot of baskets can prove fatal should a few of the Top-6 defensemen baskets incur a concussion, sprain or broken bone.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> In fact, the Boston Bruins of that postseason, who went on to lose the Stanley Cup in 6 games to Chicago, actually used 9 different defensemen during the 22-game run! NINE. DEFENSEMEN. While they failed to capture it all, the team demonstrated the amazing ability to not be set aside by injuries, and having competent depth in the 23rd, 24th, 25th & 26th roster spots, should the rainy days come.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> They did, and Boston nearly weathered the storm. </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> The Rangers, this spring? Decidedly less the ability to seek refuge in their 8th or 9th defensemen in the franchise arsenal (I thought Matt Hunwick was a competent 7th D). The Blueshirts needed short & sweet series, playing as little needed time and encountering as few injuries as possible, to make a run of it. Unfortunately, Washington and Tampa provided an exhausting series, and ultimately ate away at the team’s thinner stamina.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> So… I think we can certainly agree the big “need” is improving depth. Molding the roster into something less top-20 concentrated, into something more designed to EXPECT a few injuries, and be able to cope accordingly. Surely that’s at least a fair assessment, eh?</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> The other side of the coin is: the team overall proved to be an honest contender, even if the 2015 postseason was indeed a futile run of it. So, while improving depth is indeed a logical diagnosis… keeping the team somewhat intact, wherever possible, would seem to be for the most part an imperative maxim to keep in mind. </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> No, there will be no Canyon of Heroes parade in the Big Apple this summer. But it wasn’t exactly the Toronto Maple Leafs or Dallas Stars, either. The team met expectations up until the last week of May. There’s more positivity in that, despite the emotional negativity of Game 7 heartbreak the past 72 hours.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> To conclude: an increase in depth is perhaps the chief need for the organization, yet there should be a rejection of any “pressure” to blow up the roster and make sweeping changes, unless absolutely needed or genuinely fitting. Let’s try to walk that subjective line, shall we?</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1" style="font-size: x-large;"> Once again, here’s a look at next year’s Top-20 roster. Let’s sift through the pieces, shall we?</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"><b> Derek Stepan: </b></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Stepan is set to become a restricted free agent with arbitration rights. His qualifying offer is $3.85 million, but it will be easily tendered by NYR, and easily rejected by Stepan. The fact is Stepan is likely due a substantial payraise, one way or the other, as providing to be the #1 center on the team. In fact, Stepan was the only Rangers forward to play more than 18 minutes per game (18:11) in the regular season, and the only forward to play over 19 minutes per game (19:31) in the playoffs.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> He ranked 2nd among forwards in total PP time on ice, 2nd among forwards in ES time on ice, and 3rd among forwards in total PK time during the postseason. Like it or not, Stepan is an intricate ingredient in the Rangers rosters, and any idea of trading him in a deal must configure on those minutes being replaced… which is easier said than done, as quality centers playing quality minutes in this league usually demands a ripe premium.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> That, and coupled with Stepan’s summer-long contract holdout from July to October of 2013, suggest the man will get his money, one way or the other. The only question? How much, and for how long.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> In January, <a href="http://hockeyrodent.com/R2594.HTM" target="_blank">HockeyRodent compared S</a><a href="http://hockeyrodent.com/R2594.HTM" target="_blank">tepan to that of Ryan O’Reily last summer</a>, in terms of similarity in both performance, position and contractual point in careers. Below I’ve updated the numbers of that comparison, and it remains a valid guide to help us determine what Stepan’s new salary ought to be.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>AT TIME OF CONTRACT:</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>RYAN O’ REILY: </i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>Career: 191 points (73 goals, 118 assists), 345 games, ~18:07/game</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>Career Avgs/Game: (0.22 goals, 0.34 assists, 0.55 points)</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>Previous 2 seasons: 84 points (34 goals, 50 assists) 109 games, ~19:28/game</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>Prev 2 seasons avg/game: (0.31 goals, 0.46 assists, 0.77 points)</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>Age: 23.5</i></span></div>
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<i>CURRENT:</i></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>DEREK STEPAN:</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>Career: 252 points (89 goals, 163 assists), 362 games, ~18:18/game</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>Career Avgs/game: (.25 goals, .45 assists, .70 points)</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>Previous 2 seasons: 112 points (33 goals, 79 assists), 150 games, ~18:05/game</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>Prev 2 seasons avg/game: .22 goals, .53 assists, .75 points)</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>Age: 25</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> If O’Reilly is any indicator (which, in all likelihood, is an excellent comparable for Stepan’s summer negotiations)… He received a <a href="http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=726975" target="_blank">2-year $6 million/year deal from Colorado</a>, days prior to their salary arbitration hearing (<a href="http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/eye-on-hockey/24589318/report-avalanche-file-club-elected-salary-arbitration-on-ryan-oreilly" target="_blank">which was filed by the team, not player</a>). Granted that O’Reilly is roughly a year-and-a-half younger than Stepan… but still, this is the realistic figure Glen Sather will be dealing with.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Stepan could realistically refuse any offer he doesn’t like, go to arbitration, likely get a 1-year ~$6 million arbitration judgement, and set his sights on becoming an Unrestricted Free Agent in Summer 2017. It doesn’t take an economist to realize Stepan has the leverage, and while lowballing is not an option, it will very likely be “cheaper” to sign Derek to a long-term deal this summer rather than next summer, with as much as 29 other teams bidding for the productive center.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Of all the aspects of long-term considerations from which to pinch pennies on next year’s payroll, Stepan is likely that last place to do so. I think we can assuredly predict Stepan receives a cap hit of $6 to $7 million per year, with the former being 1-or-2-year-deals, and the latter representing 6-7-or-8-year-deals. </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> If that still seems like an unfairly high prediction-of-pay for Stepan, just remember last summer. The 31-year-old Jason Spezza received a <a href="http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=740337" target="_blank">4-year $7.5 million/year contract from Dallas</a>. The 28-year-old Paul Stastny received a <a href="http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=724795" target="_blank">4-year $7 million/year contract from St. Louis</a>. So… what do you think a 27-year-old Derek Stepan would fetch in 26 months, with the salary cap possibly in the mid $70-millions range? </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> A lot. </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> And it’s foolish to think Stepan, his agent, & Glen Sather aren’t aware of the market’s atmosphere through any of this. Our guess at </span></span><span style="font-size: large;">Stepan’s 2015-16 cap hit will be something like $6.25 million/year, assuming some sort of multi-year-deal is signed this summer.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Having the dynamic-duo of Derek Stepan & Derrick Brassard around for their late 20’s at a total annual cost of $11-$12 million per year is not a bad going rate in the current NHL. And of course, we assume we like that 1-2 punch, as they have notched 3 respectable runs in the postseason since they began playing together in February 2013.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Which brings us to Brassard and his line:</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b><span style="font-size: x-large;"> Mats Zuccarello, Derrick Brassard, & Rick Nash:</span></b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> All 3 players excelled on their line, with Brassard & Zuccarello enjoying success on the same line for the 2nd consecutive campaign (it was Benoit Pouliot in lieu of Nash in ’13-’14). All 3 players are under contract, with varying No-Move/No-Trade clauses, for the next 3-4 seasons. </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> There’s no reason to think any of the 3 forwards will be moved, nor should it be thought they must be moved, going forward for New York. In sum, they will cost a total of $17.3 million, which is certainly not a “bad” rate for a top offensive line, realistically projected to score 70-80 goals next regular season.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Indeed, we can only wonder the true effect of Zuccarello’s absence in the 2nd & 3rd round of the postseason as far as Rangers chances at success. The line proved to be effective, time and time again, and will most likely be kept together for next October, barring some crazily unlikely trade.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b><span style="font-size: x-large;"> Jesper Fast & J.T. Miller:</span></b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Both of these players had strange, versatile journeys in the 2014-15 season & postseason, varying from AHL minor leaguer, to 4th line specialist, to Derek Stepan’s top-linemate. Even though both players had NHL experience prior to this year, it was their first taste of NHL regularity. We can reasonably assume both can be expected as roster regulars for next season, both coming off their respective entry-level contracts this summer.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Neither player has the right to salary arbitration, which means barring a grandiose offer sheet, both forwards will be without leverage against Broadway lowballing. Glen Sather, <a href="http://www.blueshirtbanter.com/2014/9/18/6343351/glen-sathers-long-history-of-bridge-deals-sets-a-needed-precedent" target="_blank">historically shrewd and stingy with restricted free agents whom are without arbitration</a> or recourse, should probably pursue that tactic, and save as much cap space on the duo as possible.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> J.T. Miller’s qualifying offer is 1-year $777,000. Given his draft pedigree (15th overall in 2011), Sather would probably reluctantly succumb to a “higher” contract offer on Miller, than of Fast, who was taken 157th overall. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> A 1-year deal of $800,000 - $900,000 is perhaps optimistic on Miller’s part (just ask John Moore last summer, whom received<a href="http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/eye-on-hockey/24704457/report-john-moore-signs-one-year-deal-with-rangers" target="_blank"> not a dollar more than his qualifying offer</a>), but not impossible. If Miller looks to make at least $1 million annually, a 2-year “bridge” deal of $1-1.5 million seems a lot more realistic.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> We’ll guesstimate that Miller and the Rangers end up agreeing to a 2-year, $1.1 million deal in July or August.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> As for Quickie? … ehrm… I mean, Fast?</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> His qualifying offer is for more than that of Miller, which is 1-year $851,000. It would not surprise me at all if Fast signs a 1-year deal for his exact qualifying offer, even though I doubt he nor his agent would be thrilled. And much like Miller, a 2-year “bridge” contract for a little more, say $900,000-$1 million per year, could just as easily make sense for both parties.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> So… we’ll make the assumption both are signed to 2-year deals, stiff-armedly lowball deals, at roughly $2 million per year totaled between the two.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> As far as the depth chart? Coach Alain Vigneault would have the lineup flexibility of putting either skater on any of the 4 lines. Miller has shown a greater upside and potential for offensive production, while Fast has already locked up his reliability as an excellent defensive forward, whom was particularly successful on NYR penalty kills.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b><span style="font-size: x-large;"> Carl Hagelin:</span></b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> The only remaining Restricted Free Agent we have not talked about yet. Hagelin has the right of salary arbitration, and like Stepan, only two summers away from Unrestricted Free Agency. His qualifying offer is $2.4 million.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> What’s his value?</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> If Hagelin goes to arbitration, the most recent (and very logical) comparable to examine is that of Vladimir Sobotka, and his 1-year arbitration result which found he was “worth” $2.725 million. How similar is Sobotka last summer to Hagelin THIS summer? Let’s take a look…</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>AT TIME OF ARBITRATION:</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>SOBOTKA (Age 27)</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>STL Career: 247 games, 101 points (29-72-101)… 16:05/gp</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>STL Career Avg/Gp: .12 G/GP, .29 A/GP, .41 P/GP… </i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>Prev 2 Seasons: 109 games, 52 points (17-35-52)</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>Prev 2 Seasons Avg/Gp: .16 G, .32 A, .48 P … ~16:10/gp</i></span></div>
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<i><span class="s1"></span><br /></i></div>
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<i>CURRENT:</i></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>HAGELIN (Age 27)</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>NHL Career: 266 games, 130 points (58-72-130)… 15:38/gp</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>NHL Career Avg/Gp: .22 G, .27 A, .49 P</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>Prev 2 Seasons: 154 games, (34-34-68)… ~15:20/gp</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><i>Prev 2 Seasons Avg: .22 g-.22a - .44 p</i></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> In addition to the nearly identical age (Sobotka was 1 month younger than Hagelin is now when he went to arbitration), nearly identical stats, and nearly identical role on respective teams… It seems to be a very fitting comparable for Hagelin’s camp to gauge his value. Perhaps this very article will come up in the arbitration hearing?</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> ... A lonely, disheartened blogger can dream, can't he??...</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> All-in-all, Sobotka was awarded roughly 4% of the incoming 2014-14 salary cap ($69 million). Should Hagelin’s 1-year arbitration award mirror a 4% figure, then we can projected Hagelin’s value at about 1-year $2.85 million if the salary cap is $71.5 million.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Is Carlos worth $2.85 million to speed the flank on Broadway’s 3rd line? Perhaps, or perhaps not. It certainly wouldn’t be an “unfair” sum for either player nor team, yet if the Rangers are destined to have to cut salary by October, this is one of the likeliest candidates to be traded away.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> It’s probably 50-50 on Hagelin returning next year or ending up with another NHL club. The only reason he wouldn’t return would be salary cap reasoning, as he’s proven to be a fine 3rd line speedster, particularly pivotal on a team which has won so many games with more speed than sizzle. </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> But most importantly: if you dump Hagelin, you need to replace his top-tier penalty killing minutes and abilities.</span></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></b></div>
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<span class="s1"><b><span style="font-size: x-large;"> Chris Kreider, Kevin Hayes, Tanner Glass & Dominic Moore:</span></b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> All four of those skaters are under contract for the 2015-16 season, all of which have relatively minor salary cap hits. There’s no reason to think any of them will depart the team this summer. Even in the art of cutting salary to stay below the cap, this quartet totals a very modest collective cap hit of only $6,325,000. That’s not bad for one-third of the Top-20’s stock of forwards.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Actually… it wouldn’t be the craziest thing if Glass was traded, and a minimum-wage 4th liner was signed off the market to replace his spot. It could save the Rangers up to $875,000 in cap relief. But like I say, it’s unlikely any of these forwards are exiled for salary cap reasons, unless a very interesting trade in orchestrated in the coming months.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><b><span style="font-size: x-large;">Cam Talbot:</span></b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Unfortunately for Cam fans, it seems he is the <a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015/03/cam-talbots-trade-value-2015-goalie.html" target="_blank">prime candidate for being traded this summer</a>. If there’s a place to start cutting salary, it’s the backup goalie making $1.45 million next season. That, coupled with Talbot’s <a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/t/talboca01.html" target="_blank">brilliant play the past few seasons</a>, should make him very attractive to NHL teams fielding starting goalie auditions. </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> If Broadway trades Talbot, and then signs a veteran backup goalie to a 1-year $575,000 contract (perhaps with a few hundred thousand more in performance bonuses)… That’s a cap hit saving of $875,000. It’s also the “easiest” way to cut salary, since ~ barring another long-term injury to Lundqvist~ it will only influence 20-25 games in the regular season… and (hopefully) none in the 2016 playoffs.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> The biggest NHL shoppers expected to utilize this summer’s goalie market are likely Buffalo, Calgary, Edmonton, Minnesota & San Jose. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> I think it can be argued successfully that Talbot’s inherent value for the 2015-16 Rangers is not what he can do as the backup goalie, but what assets can he help return for the team in aspects other than goaltending. I would even go as far to say Talbot is very unlikely going to remain a Ranger over the next 4 months.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><b><span style="font-size: x-large;">Dan Boyle, Dan Girardi, Ryan McDonagh & Marc Staal:</span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> These four defensemen are unlikely to be traded or bought out by New York this summer, and are all-but-guaranteed to remain on the roster for next season’s crusade. All for have No-Trade and/or No-Movement clauses in their respective contracts, and have been irrevocable investments on the blueline for New York. Unless somehow one of these men willingly waives his contract clauses in some unforeseen trade, which is highly improbable; all the fans calling for their roster removal has no basis for actually being considered possible.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><b><span style="font-size: x-large;">Keith Yandle:</span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> A mixed review of offensive contribution and defensive dullness, Yandle’s pricey acquisition proved to be ultimately unfruitful in the 2015 attempt at Stanley. But, he is on contract for one more year before hitting the Unrestricted Free Agent market, and continues to be 50% of his actual cap hit, with Don Maloney and the Arizona Coyotes footing the other 50% of the bill.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Trading Yandle? Possible, but his $2.625 million cap hit is extremely friendly. What 2nd or 3rd pair defensemen could he be replaced with for below cost? While it is “less impossible” for Yandle to be moved than any of Boyle/Girardi/McDonagh/Staal… I still think any of those 5 defensemen getting traded is a far cry from reality.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Which brings us to the 6th defensemen…</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><b><span style="font-size: x-large;"> Kevin Klein:</span></b></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP37oUVy4KkdB5jKJwPGD-SjCi3jbAOREwbjG47Al4iK2NMMLsn5WEYfhPZ_u09u1cR0_BBTwhzV4ASdd72gDL2PPXJcBe_nmLfN2OoAkeAJDp1hKTQyPLOSG71F0khAFCXPFgpndrqGs/s1600/11219154_10153106715559902_2571522654489541190_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="626" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP37oUVy4KkdB5jKJwPGD-SjCi3jbAOREwbjG47Al4iK2NMMLsn5WEYfhPZ_u09u1cR0_BBTwhzV4ASdd72gDL2PPXJcBe_nmLfN2OoAkeAJDp1hKTQyPLOSG71F0khAFCXPFgpndrqGs/s640/11219154_10153106715559902_2571522654489541190_n.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Klein, a retrospectively absolute steal from the Nashville Predators in the straight-up exchange for Michael Del Zotto, has enjoyed 2 deep playoff runs in the 2 seasons he’s been Broadway bound. In fact this season the 30-year-old defenseman put up career-high stats in goals (9), assists (17) and points (26). </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> So why do I think it’s very likely he’s traded?</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> For a team pressed up against the salary cap, like the Rangers will be this summer, a 3rd pair defenseman making $2.9 million/year is an easy place to cut. The fact that he enjoyed a career year (despite missing 17 games with a broken arm) only makes his trade value that much more enticing.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Like Talbot, his expandability in terms of salary vs “minor” playing time, coupled with his perky trade value after a successful season… spells out the perfect storm to be traded as the Blueshirts scramble to get under $72 million by October 1st.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Klein does not have any no-trade or no-movement clauses, meaning he is powerless to stop any trade he might be packaged within. And certain teams hungry for fair-value reliable-defensemen would certainly be willing to talk trade with Sather. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> The fact that he has 3 more years under his contract makes his trade value all the more genuine. It strikes me as “highly likely” both Talbot and Klein are banished from Broadway to reduce the overall budget. I am NOT suggesting they be traded because of “poor performance” or “dislikability.” Quite the opposite, actually, which is what makes them all the more tradable.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Yes, Sather COULD trade Stepan or Hagelin to dump salary… but both of those players only has 1 season to play before becoming an Unrestricted Free Agent. Even if a team fully intends to acquire one of the two, and sign them to a long-term deal… all the player has to do is go to arbitration, reject all offers, and find himself in the 2016 July marketplace.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Klein’s got 3 years. That means even though Stepan and Hagelin are probably more “valuable” pieces to a team… Klein’s guaranteed service at a guaranteed price makes him the most convenient and effective trade asset. Particularly teams where quality defensemen are at a low.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> And finally, the rest of the best…</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b><span style="font-size: x-large;"> Oscar Lindberg: </span></b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Having finished his 2nd professional season in North America, including a “breakout” season and playoff run with the Hartford Wolf Pack the past 9 months… Lindberg’s candidacy for a 2015-16 roster spot remains a very possible one. The Swedish centerman played his first and only NHL game earlier this season.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> He will be a Restricted Free Agent without arbitration rights, so it’s a safe bet the 23-year-old will be re-signed for something around his $709,000 qualifying offer.</span></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></b></div>
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<span class="s1"><b><span style="font-size: x-large;"> Carl Klingberg:</span></b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> The minor-league winger <a href="http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=755881" target="_blank">acquired from Winnipeg</a> in the Lee Stempniak deadline deal… Klingberg fit in nicely, playing with Lindberg’s line successfully. He notched 11 points in his only 13 AHL games with Hartford, and delivered 7 points in 13 postseason games before the Wolf Pack was swept in their Conference Finals.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> He will be a Restricted Free Agent without arbitration rights, and like Lindberg, will likely be re-signed for something very near his qualifying offer ($683,000), and given every opportunity to make a roster spot in the NHL come September’s training camp. </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><b><span style="font-size: x-large;">Matt Hunwick, Conor Allen, Dylan McIlrath, Mike Kostka:</span></b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> All four defensemen will have expiring contracts in July. Hunwick managed to separate himself from the other 3 in terms of a bonafide “7th” defensemen throughout the season… yet none of these players were given much of a chance unless a rash of injuries made it so. I don’t believe these will be Rangers blue liners in the coming years (although Hunwick re-signing a low contact to return as the 7th D isn’t exactly “unlikely”, either).</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><b><span style="font-size: x-large;">Defenseman Prospects - Future Value:</span></b></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1HyyUkT_OBXPtwwv0CNfhYd60k8q9PIGxE3mAK6ofY2rdp_bm17kQ6MjtdEf-rRUuU14WmkpyaqtMaLOigs6J8w20TTrdmJw_GwjrGta14DuCwvc0FhvI8g4OsNo0ad52FHojBdPTsYg/s1600/146707023_slide.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1HyyUkT_OBXPtwwv0CNfhYd60k8q9PIGxE3mAK6ofY2rdp_bm17kQ6MjtdEf-rRUuU14WmkpyaqtMaLOigs6J8w20TTrdmJw_GwjrGta14DuCwvc0FhvI8g4OsNo0ad52FHojBdPTsYg/s640/146707023_slide.jpg" width="424" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Brady Skjei</td></tr>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> As stated earlier in the article, the Rangers were depleted of defensemen ready to step in and relieve others’ injuries. I’d focus more attention on the crop of younger blueliners New York has brewing in the farm systems.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Specifically:</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> And <a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015/05/the-boyle-vs-stralman-debate-is-about.html" target="_blank">as stated in previous articles</a>:</span></span></div>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;">If we reasonably assume Hayes, Kreider & Stepan get long-term, higher cap-hit extensions between this July and the next one….</span></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;">And we also see that Boyle & Yandle will have expiring contracts, with less money to spend on replacements following the 2015-16 season…</span></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;">Looking over our estimated "5-year-plan” (see chart below), look how little cap room is left for the 3rd pair of defense by October 2016? </span></span></li>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><span style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015/05/the-boyle-vs-stralman-debate-is-about.html" target="_blank"><img border="0" height="491" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilLHtg2BJEnm3WBiHq17FKPCicU_8ay4cYJZtDBZ3GY7x-7EvNcRBMEmpjaZxLwc2_7T1EE0UDlcxlpoBX3Oul_Fhmc4F_pwrAzKNyK24k5ftZXodmYZdL4SBWrRCWx1jX9fL-m0O9nZA/s640/agfsdtgfhsg.png" width="640" /></a></span></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015/05/the-boyle-vs-stralman-debate-is-about.html" target="_blank">Click image for recent article which configured this 5-year plan for NYR payroll</a></td></tr>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Is it not a fair conclusion to figure that the need to acquire bluechip bullion prospects over the next 12 months is an extremely logical one? Once Boyle and Yandle are gone, the 3rd pair will need cheap fill-ins. That means scourging the market for more “Matt Hunwicks”, “Steve Emingers” & “Matt Gilroys.” Or… perhaps like the case of Girardi, McDonagh & Staal… have a young, cheaply-contracted prospect organically transition into the big leagues on the 3rd pair.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> So, to answer, who or what would we trade Klein & Talbot for?</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Klein+Talbot+McIlrath for San Jose’s #9 overall pick?</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Klein+Talbot+McIlrath for Calgary’s #15 overall pick?</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Klein+Talbot+McIlrath for Edmonton’s #16 overall pick?</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> A deal like this, is it so far-fetched? It could be a great way to add another quality defenseman prospect to our farm system, and hope the pick could be NHL-ready in 16 - 18 months?</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Or, another means could be raiding the free agent out-of-college market, as the Rangers have aggressively done in recent years without a 1st round draft pick. Girardi, Hayes & Talbot all broke onto the Rangers with this method (as well as AHL’ers Conor Allen, Mat Bodie, & Ryan Haggerty).</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> <a href="http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=143097" target="_blank">Mike Reilly</a>, a left-handed defenseman out of University of Minnesota, is coming off his 3rd season in the NCAA. The 22-year-old scored 6 goals & 36 assists in 39 games. While drafted by Columbus in 2011 (4th round), if he does not sign a deal with them by August 15, he will be on the completely open market, in the same fashion Kevin Hayes was.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> I count two dozen NCAA skaters <a href="http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2011e.html" target="_blank">drafted in 2011, still without a contract</a>, who could also be totally on the open market this summer. It seems all but certain that the Rangers will pursue at least a few, depending on their scouting consensus. </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> As of now, Brady Skjei seems the likeliest prospect to contend for an NHL roster spot come training camp. By the training camp after that, it’d be nice to have 2-3 more candidates to fill the Boyle/Yandle void, almost assuredly coming. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> Unless the Rangers will tap into a hot pool of premium defensive prospects, this next season could be the “deepest” Top-6 unit the team will have for the foreseeable future.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b><span style="font-size: x-large;"> Conclusion:</span></b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> The Rangers will not be shoppers on the market this summer. The Rangers actually won’t have too many decisions at hand, as most of the roster is essentially already set up for the 2015-16 season. The only kinks are a few restricted free agent details as far as length & pay, as well as the inevitable need to dump a few million in salary (I still think it’s overwhelmingly Klein+Talbot). But that’s it.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> This team had a good run. They played well, were coached well… the problem is they didn’t have an actual "well.” The top-heaviness of the Top-20 roster spots’ salary should be shaved off… and will be, as far as I can tell… but what really kept New York out of the Finals was a lack of depth. A lack of talented prospects bursting at the seems who could be asked to step in and play minutes.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> … And that problem will only be exacerbated come a year from now, when the franchise will truly need to have defensemen with cheap contracts but not cheap playing ability. Look for the Rangers to at least draft a defenseman with their 2nd round, #59 overall pick. </span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> There’s no reason why the 2015-16 Rangers should be any less competitive, competent or capable than their predecessor… considering it will likely be a near duplicate of its predecessor… and one more crack at a playoff run before Lundqvist’s 35th birthday. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> The “window” may be closing, but it should remain at least cracked open, for one more season.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">P.S.: I did not discuss Martin St. Louis because he is just as likely to return to New York as <a href="http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/freeagents.php?team=all&type=UFA&year=2015&pos=ALL" target="_blank">any of the other 2015 Unrestricted Free Agent</a> wingers or defensemen out there. I don't think any of us will be surprised if he did not return to Broadway for next season...</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> And if not, we undoubtedly thank him for his tremendous service and dedication to the Rangers lineup the past 15 months. It will never be forgotten, despite no championship glory.</span></div>
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S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-4285830647211989072015-05-30T02:10:00.002-07:002015-05-30T14:15:22.547-07:00Early Look at NY Rangers' Off-Season Agenda<br />
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<span class="s1"> Might as well get the off-season talks going, a nice distraction from the piercing reality of elimination… I’ll make this short and sweet, because I don’t feel much like writing extensively after Game 7 heartbreak.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Here's a graph of NYR salaries next season:</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> - Cap hits in grey are ACTUAL cap hits already on the books</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> - Cap hits in maroon are ESTIMATED cap hits predicted for that player to sign this summer</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> - Cap hits in blue are not specific to any particular player, the represent a vague price for that position</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> A certain thing to take away, even at this most early stage of NYR off-season psychology, is that the Rangers are probably going to have to dump a contract or two. At least, if the 2016 Salary Cap figures to be in the mid $71 millions area <a href="http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/12929596/commissioner-gary-bettman-expects-nhl-salary-cap-climb-71-million-2015-16" target="_blank">as speculated by commissioner Gary Bettman earlier this month.</a></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> In other words… a man or two must go. </span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Candidates?</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> A few things to consider:</span></div>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/b/boyleda01.html" target="_blank">Dan Boyle</a>, <a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/b/brassde01.html" target="_blank">Derrick Brassard</a>, <a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/g/girarda01.html" target="_blank">Dan Girardi</a>, <a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/l/lundqhe01.html" target="_blank">Henrik Lundqvist</a>, <a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/m/mooredo01.html" target="_blank">Dominic Moore</a>, <a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/n/nashri01.html" target="_blank">Rick Nash</a>, and <a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/z/zuccama01.html" target="_blank">Mats Zuccarello</a> all have varying no-trade and/or no-movement clauses in their respective 2015-16 contracts. They are the toughest candidates to move.</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">“Burying” a player in the minor leagues can only relieve up to $925,000 of cap hit per contract. </span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Dan Boyle cannot be bought out, since he signed his contract after his 35th birthday</span></li>
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<span class="s1"> Exchanging <a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/t/talboca01.html" target="_blank">Cam Talbot</a> for a cheaper goalie could save the NYR payroll up to $875,000. The goaltender prospect pipeline of NYR draft picks <a href="http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=170123" target="_blank">Brandon Halverson</a> (OHL), <a href="http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=173069" target="_blank">Igor Shestyerkin</a> (KHL/MHL) & <a href="http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=137665" target="_blank">Mackenzie Skapski</a> (AHL) seems like a strong pool. Should Talbot even plateau at his impressive career stats over the course of next season, it is overwhelmingly likely he would be outbid on the 2016 UFA market, making him a prime candidate.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Unloading the reliable <a href="http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/k/kleinke01.html" target="_blank">Kevin Klein</a> (and his $2.9 million cap hit) would make sense, as he’s under contract for another 3 seasons at a modest rate. I particularly think Edmonton, a team lacking in quality NHL-calibre defense & goaltending, could be attracted to a Talbot/Klein package. Especially if retooling the roster with political cache-blanc from ownership in the new Connor McDavid era.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Of course… Marc Staal or Ryan McDonagh remain with larger cap hits, yet would be a surprising trade to occur this summer. Particularly as McDonagh ($4.7 million) is the sophomore Captain of a generally successful pair of playoff runs… and Staal ($5.7 million) just signed his contract earlier in the season, expecting to dedicate the majority of his NHL career on Broadway. </span></div>
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<span class="s1"> The only relevant contracts for the necessary salary dump we’re sleuthing are:</span></div>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Derek Stepan (RFA with salary arbitration rights)</span></li>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Chris Kreider ($2.475 million)</span></li>
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<span class="s1"> It would seem Hagelin & Glass are the more “expendable” or “replaceable” names on the list. Trading Stepan or Kreider, much like McDonagh or Staal, would be a MAJOR transaction, doing serious tinkering to a core that probably doesn’t need much tinkering.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> But alas, the salary cap.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> The NY Rangers will probably have at least $2.5 million available to dispense out in “performance bonuses.” So, when it comes to an unrestricted free agent veteran player on the open market… signing them to a base contract of $1 million, but giving them $2.5 million in bonuses, remains an effective means of signing someone this summer while sidestepping the salary cap. </span></div>
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<span class="s1"> It’s the type of contract that Jaromir Jagr, Kimo Timonen & Jerome Iginla all signed last summer. Low cap hit, higher performance bonuses. Other than Kevin Hayes, no other Ranger on the above roster has any bonuses.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Can you say “welcome back, Brad Richards?"</span><br />
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<span class="s1"> <b>Edit:</b> <i>Oops, it's come to my attention that Marc Staal indeed <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/marc-staal-and-rangers-officially-agree-to-six-year-contract-222611408.html" target="_blank">has a no-move clause for the next 3 years, and a modified no-trade clause the final 3 years.</a> Put him on the "toughest players to move" list, and excuse my error.</i></span></div>
S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-38268458002730999342015-05-23T08:40:00.002-07:002015-05-23T09:40:53.494-07:00It'd be Bigger News if Lundqvist, Rangers had FAILED to Respond<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Since December, the New York Rangers have lost back-to-back games a total of 6 times, not including the most recent skid of Games 2 & 3 against Tampa Bay. That’s a stingy rate of “only” losing two games in a row about once per month. Not too shabby, eh?</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> But what’s been more impressive is the immediate response to punting back-to-back contests. Unbelievably, in each of those 6 skids, Broadway has responded with a bounceback winning-streak of at least 3 wins. Every time.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Well… the most recent 7th occurrence is still up in the air. New York would have to close out the series with victories in Games 5 & 6 to make it 7-for-7.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> So was anyone truly surprised that head coach Alain Vigneault bench-bossed a group of skaters Friday night that responded to 12 goals allowed in the previous 2 hours? Not to say the 5-1 win was a casual expectation, of course it always has elements of surprise… but how could anyone paying attention since Christmas have been “totally shocked?”</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> This is what these 2015 Rangers do best: handle adversity. Stay the course. Respond. </span></div>
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<span class="s1"> There were injuries inviting track derailment, as with substantial absences from key performers such as Derek Stepan, Henrik Lundqvist, Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Klein, Mats Zuccarello, and Dan Boyle. And yet no factor could keep the squad from finishing the season with a league-best record (or more impressively an all-time franchise-best performance).</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Remember the questions on everyone’s mind last September? Pondering the potential of a platoon with a center depth chart of Stepan/Brassard/Hayes (a rookie whom was a natural winger prior to training camp)… despite last season’s success, the Rangers have time and time again proven themselves to invariable possess something very valuable in the quest of Stanley Cup conquest; resiliency.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Need we mention the 3-1 series deficits of last month AND last year? In fact, the NY Rangers have won their last 3 playoff series when trailing 2-1 after Game 3. Yes, you read that correctly. The previous 3 instances of falling behind 2-1 in a series (’13 & ’15 vs Washington & ’14 vs Pittsburgh) all resulted in Rangers finding a way to respond with 3 wins in the following 4 games.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Since Round 1 / Game 1 vs Ottawa in 2012, Lundqvist has played 32 playoff games following a playoff loss. Should anyone be surprised that in those 32 games following postseason defeat, Lundqvist has responded 20-12 with a .935 sv% & 1.87 GAA? Of course not. Madison Square Garden has hosted nearly a full decade of the Lundqvist era of Rangers hockey. Perhaps a fanbase spoiled with elite, pressure-thriving, immaculately consistent goaltending for 2.5 Presidential Terms could lose site of his character, total embodiment of the Blueshirts.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Shame on anyone who took to a social media, forum or watercolor discussion seriously suggesting benching Lundqvist after the totally uncharacteristic outlier of Games 2 & 3. Vigneault’s scoffing of such question after Game 3’s 6-2 loss was a beautiful reminder he knows what he’s doing, he knows what he’s got, & he hasn’t taken Lundqvist for granted.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> I mean seriously… remember in 2005 when Yankees closer Mariano Rivera had a rough skid, blowing a handful of saves in a few allotment of regular season games? Totally freak skid when compared to his high-volume history of getting the job done, fans reacted with emotion and an unsettling disregard for logic or appreciation of variance. </span></div>
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<span class="s1"> As if the myriad of impatient Tri-State sports fans had never had a bad stretch of days at THEIR office. </span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Isn't it ironic that perhaps the best hockey team on the planet in terms of patiently cool, calm & collected responses is bound to play for a region of sports fans that are perhaps the exact opposite? </span></div>
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<span class="s1"> So… this is it. The Rangers ability to respond, react, adapt & re-mount the horse is what separates them from all the other teams. Late-game rallies in the regular season against Minnesota, New Jersey & NY Islanders were instant classics, but not isolated events. They were demonstrations of a team that battles back, that can regroup, that can prove to be a tough ember to snuff.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Oh, and by the way, the Rangers are 6-0 this postseason when leading after 2 periods. Going back to the regular season it’s 42-0-1. </span></div>
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<span class="s1"> This team has the ability to push their way back into games, elevate their game in the face of losses or series deficits… AND yet never allow it to happen to them. Those are a couple of wonderful attributes to a hockey club, needing only 6 more wins to capture it all. </span></div>
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<span class="s1"> The Rangers responded after a pair of tough losses. Lundqvist couldn’t go more than 2 games without throwing in yet another elite performance. Vigneault laughed when asked if the team would have to restructure their franchise cornerstone in order to assimilate a response. </span></div>
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<span class="s1"> “Rangers respond”, “Lundqvist shines”, “Vigneault is good at coaching”. Yeah yeah yeah… move along folks, no surprising storyline to read about here.</span></div>
S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-24854914463430173642015-05-22T11:27:00.002-07:002015-05-22T12:31:26.889-07:00The "Boyle vs Stralman" Debate is About MORE Than The 2 Defensemen<br />
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<span class="s1"> Much less the confrontation and retrospective forum on ‘Callahan vs MSL’, as one may have thought earlier this year… the bigger debate has been not the captain-for-captain trade last spring… but rather the free-agency signing of Dan Boyle by the NY Rangers, in lieu of re-upping Anton Stralman last summer.</span></div>
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Both defensemen signed for $4.5 million/year salary cap hits, except the 38-year-old Boyle signed a 2-year deal (probably leaving money on the table from other offers to specifically compete for a Stanley Cup with the defending Prince-of-Whales trophy winning Rangers). Stralman, 10 years younger, signed for the same annual average, but for 5 years.<br />
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> The sporadic & general consensus is that letting Stralman go for Boyle was ‘the wrong choice.’</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> And there’s understandable merit to that conclusion:</span></div>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">The Rangers (with Boyle) are losing the Eastern Conference Finals 2-1</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">The Lightning (with Stralman) are winning the ECF 2-1</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Anton Stralman has had a “better” season and post-season than Dan Boyle</span></li>
</ul>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> So… Boyle over Stralman was the ‘incorrect’ decision for NYR GM Glen Sather last summer? Cased closed!</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> … not exactly…</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> After the long-term contract signings of Henrik Lundqvist, Derrick Brassard, Dan Girardi, & Marc Staal… coupled with the long-term pre-existing contracts of Rick Nash & Kevin Klein… the fact of the matter was the cap space down the road was beginning to get tight, and configuring future puzzle pieces assured to fit nicely was now a much trickier undertaking.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Let’s go to this chart I’ve made:</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDfPZB-0uhuNxJa1HrVlITpZU8Udyc3W0ktmhZMH9NdmOTOf2XCImv2yQh1xFp76kIe1M3eiOgiZSPPE7Hom615jgS95-IwlrfpmdkxWGspdX_12kXbSYeRrn46YjhvSEliBB3NUxybgI/s1600/agfsdtgfhsg.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="488" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDfPZB-0uhuNxJa1HrVlITpZU8Udyc3W0ktmhZMH9NdmOTOf2XCImv2yQh1xFp76kIe1M3eiOgiZSPPE7Hom615jgS95-IwlrfpmdkxWGspdX_12kXbSYeRrn46YjhvSEliBB3NUxybgI/s640/agfsdtgfhsg.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="p1">
<br /></div>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1"> </li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">The contracts in grey boxes are actual, non-ficticious cap hits currently on the book for the NY Rangers</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">The contracts in maroon boxes are guesstimated cap hits of the player once his current, greybox contract expires</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">The contracts in blue are guesstimated cap hits for replacement of that player… meaning the cap hits in blue could be any player, and is assumed to be a replacement for whomever’s roster spot is being represented</span></li>
</ul>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Look at the contracts expiring in 13 months (July 2016): We see a lot of contracts expiring (specifically Boyle’s $4.5 mil/yr)… and we are giving credit that Stepan, Kreider & Hayes get bigger, long-term contracts. To whit: if Stralman’s $4.5 million was occupying the 2nd RD roster slot, the 3yr/$10 million deal to Hayes (a duplicate of the contract that both Andrej Palat & Tyler Johnson received after their respective entry-level contracts) would not be available. Nor would the Zuccarello-esque contract we predict Kreider is entitled to next summer.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> So… signing Boyle or Stralman… had a lot more to do than just either player’s comparative performances the following season & postseason. It had a lot to do with securing cap space for New York’s budding youth core, and making sure the Rangers weren’t handcuffed in a few dozen months.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Are the Rangers “all in”, as with their dealing of draft picks & highly-touted prospect Anthony DuClair? It’s a heck of a mortgage, but the team’s ability to probably secure most of its current maturing youth suggests the window of opportunity may not be destined to slam shut. (Granted, Henrik Lundqvist’s massive contract, and the fact he’s entering his mid-to-late 30’s in the coming seasons… do suggest a mortally immediate timeline for the team’s contendership as a whole)</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Yet conversely, it seems so easy to forget the handsomely young ages of most of the franchise’s artillery: Kreider, Stepan, Fast, Hayes & Lindberg are all under 26 years of age. Brassard, Zuccarello, Hagelin, McDonagh & Staal have plenty of hockey to play before their 30th birthday. And where forfeiting 1st round draft picks usually hurts a team, New York’s big-market advantage in signing collegiate free agents (as they did with Hayes, Talbot, & Haggerty) can offset a lot of that excavation.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjh9pof3HydBAiZtV4BtXT9s-lQgI0AuyFZ4y2jqLePdayCJ0XonIhyCTBz3OrbocaJV3DS68z25Tyob2HE1HECz9Ju6ulUksu17v8rFfqzyjc_q-UioG5g4fmuIv_Wy8nDQxR8Z8JkarQ/s1600/derick-brassard-and-zuccarello-hi-five-3-22.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjh9pof3HydBAiZtV4BtXT9s-lQgI0AuyFZ4y2jqLePdayCJ0XonIhyCTBz3OrbocaJV3DS68z25Tyob2HE1HECz9Ju6ulUksu17v8rFfqzyjc_q-UioG5g4fmuIv_Wy8nDQxR8Z8JkarQ/s320/derick-brassard-and-zuccarello-hi-five-3-22.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><br /></span>
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> What’s the point I’m trying to make?</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Signing Stepan to a long-term deal seems almost inevitable this summer. The same for Kreider & Hayes next summer (remember: since both signed their entry-level contracts at age 21, they cannot bet coddled in low-cap-hit bridge deals at this point in their career. Players late to sign their first NHL contract get the right to salary-arbitration immediately!)</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Come July 2016, it will be time to pay up to the core. With Boyle’s fleeting 2-year deal vs Stralman’s 5-year deal, the Rangers are well-equipped financially to smoothly accommodate this important transition for the franchise. While the defensive depth of 2017 will probably be shallower than the current crop of 7 defensemen, the sustainability to keep the current herd of forwards employed atop Penn Station remains a wonderful thing for Rangers fans.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<br />
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> So… do you still think it was a glaring ‘mistake’ to sign Boyle over Stralman?</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> P.S.:</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> - I did not include Cam Talbot's contract for the 2015-16 season in the graph because of the <a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015/03/cam-talbots-trade-value-2015-goalie.html" target="_blank">overwhelming logic it makes to trade him this off-season. </a></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> - A more detailed and elaborate chart of <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tTsDyN_WFAC_AIpNJ5wDjB-Agum609qkxA4qqIwBteY/edit#gid=126732230" target="_blank">NY Ranger's ACTUAL present-day salaries can be found here: </a></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-1178547191532025152015-04-10T04:33:00.000-07:002015-04-10T04:33:11.701-07:00Final Thoughts on NY Rangers before 2015 Playoff Run (Part 1)<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Assuming there is no injury dealt to a NY Ranger on Saturday's season-finale matinee in Washington D.C., Game 1 of the 1st Round Playoffs will be an opportune time for the blueshirts to finally take the ice with 100% health. With Kevin Klein set to return from his broken arm injury, we will see New York the healthiest it’s been since the night of Lundqvist’s neck injury.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Does anything “odd” come to mind when looking over the projected NYR playoff lineup?...</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="s1"><i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Zuccarello - Brassard - Nash</span></i></span></div>
</div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="s1"><i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Kreider - Stepan - St. Louis</span></i></span></div>
</div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="s1"><i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Hagelin - Hayes - Miller</span></i></span></div>
</div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="s1"><i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Fast - Moore - Glass</span></i></span></div>
</div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></i></div>
</div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="s1"><i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">McDonagh - Girardi</span></i></span></div>
</div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="s1"><i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Staal - Boyle</span></i></span></div>
</div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="s1"><i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Yandle - Klein</span></i></span></div>
</div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></i></div>
</div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="s1"><i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Lundqvist</span></i></span></div>
</div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="s1"><i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Talbot</span></i></span></div>
</div>
<div class="p2" style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></i></div>
</div>
<div class="p1" style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="s1"><i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">(Extras: Shepperd, Hunwick, Summers, AHL call-ups)</span></i></span></div>
</div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> … Well, did you notice something? </span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> If not, try this spoiler on for size: This particular group of players has actually NEVER played a single game together!</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Keith Yandle, Henrik Lundqvist, Martin St. Louis & Kevin Klein have never been in the lineup all at the same time. The opening game of the NYR playoffs is set to be the debut of the 100% completely healthy post-trade-deadline New York Rangers.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Scary, huh? </span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Well… scary for opponents. A fairly pleasant bit of trivia for any Rangers fan, no doubt.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> How about this: when Boyle, Brassard, Klein, Kreider, Lundqvist, McDonagh, Miller, Nash, Stepan, St. Louis & Zuccarello all play in the same game: NYR is 12-3 this season.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> 12-3? That’s a points percentage of 80%, which is well-above the already-league-leading 69% NYR has amassed in the total season!</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Can this team really be BETTER in the 1st round than it has in the past 10 weeks? I mean: NYR are 14-5-1 since acquiring Yandle. When all these players hit the ice, with Yandle/Klein/Lundqvist all onboard together at the same time for some shifts, could it possibly decrease Broadway’s winning formula in any way conceivable? </span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> The answer is: probably freaking not.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Not only does head coach Alain Vigneault rotate a remarkably even-keel on spreading out ice time for forwards & defensemen, but there seems to be an equally spread-out wave of rest amongst key players, perhaps extremely beneficial for a potential Stanley Cup run.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Lundqvist: 36 games missed/rested</span></i></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></i></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> McDonagh: 11 games missed/rested</span></i></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></i></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Boyle: 17 games missed/rested</span></i></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></i></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> St. Louis: 8 games missed/rested</span></i></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></i></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Klein: 17 games missed/rested</span></i></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></i></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Stepan: 14 games missed/rested</span></i></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> These injuries will seem like blessings-in-disguise should NYR have another series of hockey battles lasting into the month of June. Any advantage of rest, or less-energy-expended-than-opponent, will be absolutely clutch. Gaps of missed time, save a few cob webs, can make the difference in close, battle-of-the-beaten-teams rundowns.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> You think Marian Gaborik’s successfully sprite playoff performance with LA last postseason had anything to do with him spending 50% of the regular season resting with injury? As if Jonathan Quick would have as much left in the tank as he did last May/June had he played 1,000 minutes more than the 2904 he played in the ’13-’14 regular season?</span><br />
<span class="s1"><br /></span>
<span class="s1"> Actually we did some research... over the past 10 Stanley Cups winners, how many Cup-winning goaltenders finished Top-10 Minutes Played in that regular season? Answer: Just 2.! Yup, twice in the past decade. Only Marc-Andre Fleury 2009 (9th in minutes) & Jonathan Quick 2012 (4th in minutes) were able to play the big minutes in the season AND win it all in June. The other 80% of the time, championship teams had goalies with far less regular season minutes. Causation/correlation? </span><br />
<span class="s1"><br /></span>
<span class="s1"> The theory of (Rested Goalie) = (Better Stamina in May/June) >>> (Overworked Goalie) = (Lower Stamina in May/June) sure seems plausible, at least at a glance.</span><br />
<span class="s1"><br /></span>
<span class="s1"> By the way, the 8 well-rested Cup-winning goalies the past 10 postseasons are: Crawford'13 (21st), Quick'12 (21st), Thomas'11 (14th), Niemi'10 (34th), Osgood'08 (30th), Giguere'07 (18th), Ward'06 (46th), Khabibulin'04 (17th).</span><br />
<span class="s1"><br /></span>
<span class="s1"> Lundqvist: Currently 27th in the NHL.</span><br />
<span class="s1"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwDtUR-Ytt5fNfYo8VBaKE6XC-Eh1AfaZcSttjdw09RaSL0QMDC8iphEr4iGn4_F5KcoFoYAlNVZTizkW573PJq14op3BnQQcxXLNQLeOOe7CFcmZopaENIGc_imqI1HNJyReReST_KKI/s1600/henrik-lundqvist.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwDtUR-Ytt5fNfYo8VBaKE6XC-Eh1AfaZcSttjdw09RaSL0QMDC8iphEr4iGn4_F5KcoFoYAlNVZTizkW573PJq14op3BnQQcxXLNQLeOOe7CFcmZopaENIGc_imqI1HNJyReReST_KKI/s1600/henrik-lundqvist.jpg" height="282" width="400" /></a></div>
<span class="s1"><br /></span>
<span class="s1"><br /></span>
<span class="s1"> So we have a well-rested King Henrik, who has (abnormal to his career, mind you) played a conservative amount of minutes this season. What about rival Eastern Conference powerhouses' goaltenders? 7 of the 8 possible teams are sporting netminders in the Top-20 minutes played. Only OTT Senators with Andrew 'Hamburgler' Hammond have the advantage of rest over New York.</span><br />
<span class="s1"><br /></span>
<span class="s1"> Metro Division rival Brayden Holtby (WSH) leads all NHL goalies in minutes played. Rask (BOS) is 3rd, Price (MTL) is 4th, Fleury (PIT) is 8th, Bishop (TBL) is 12th, Halak (NYI) is 13th, & Howard (DET) is 20th. </span><br />
<br />
Let's be real: Henrik Lundqvist will have a considerable edge of stamina against any "top" Eastern Conference foe. In a league where rest-is-best when dealing with goaltenders winning Cups, the rarity of a Lundqvist long-term injury (seemingly detrimental at the time) has now become a new rarity, seemingly <i>helpful</i> at this time.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> A combination of rest, rotation & multiple-egg-basket distribution has a seriously optimistic ring for NY Rangers fans. The top-20 NYR contracts will all be healthy & in the lineup together again at Game 1 for the first time since January. Talk about timing, talk about a plan coming together damn nicely.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> </span><br />
<span class="s1"> We'll likely post a follow-up when the NY Rangers playoff opponent is officially decided Saturday.</span><br />
<span class="s1"><br /></span>
<span class="s1"> The playoffs start next Wednesday.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> </span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> </span></div>
S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-70268222509164821862015-04-06T10:39:00.002-07:002015-04-06T10:43:12.473-07:00Rangers Look To Play 'Streak-Buster' Once More This Season<div class="p1">
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="s1"></span><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Rangers Have Been the 2014-15 Streak-Busters of the NHL</span></b></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1">SJS was 4-0-1 heading into the 10/19/14 game at Madison Square Garden… the Rangers prevailed, beating the Sharks 4-0.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1">PIT was 7-0-1 heading into the 11/11/14 game at Madison Sqaure Garden… the Rangers prevailed, beating the Penguins 5-0.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1">WSH was 7-0-2 heading into the 12/23/14 game at Madison Square Garden… the Rangers prevailed, beating the Capitals in 4-2.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1">OTT was 7-0 in their last 7 (and 15-1-1 in their last 17) heading into the 3/26/15 game in Ottawa against NYR… the Rangers prevailed, beating the Senators 5-1.</span></div>
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<span class="s1">CBJ are currently riding a, 9-game winning streak, including 12 wins in their last 13 games, head into Madison Square Garden tonight. Unlike Columbus, the Rangers can further improve their place in the standings for playoff considerations. </span></div>
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<span class="s1"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Rick Nash Looks To Secure Even-Strength Goals Title</span></b></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJKG7RZDkOcHLHRK7jwcJxE7NEMAeeJtpwiv7839qQAZCoU0bgeZJgcnx-NKQ65WGr9cNI1_EMd9V1B90316tkPD1ljuGJqUC7_rdFUOSpFQRQ1-7CvE0god5ru1cW9N2JuHpqEBmNaHw/s1600/NASH_672_FANTASY_072914-672x280.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJKG7RZDkOcHLHRK7jwcJxE7NEMAeeJtpwiv7839qQAZCoU0bgeZJgcnx-NKQ65WGr9cNI1_EMd9V1B90316tkPD1ljuGJqUC7_rdFUOSpFQRQ1-7CvE0god5ru1cW9N2JuHpqEBmNaHw/s1600/NASH_672_FANTASY_072914-672x280.jpg" height="166" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span class="s1"> Rick Nash heads into tonight’s game with 32 Even-Strength Goals on the season, leading all players. Steve Stamkos (TBL) has 30 & Corey Perry (ANH) has 29.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Lundqvist 2 Wins Away from 30</b></span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh165SL8DFZc0Kdwz1TOp60W24xMrVevbyZPIs8hIBzQaM0Kg3J2MsU0ycGPZzCwPOoKSlTzQH1vGjK7kuboTOqSAlt2qbIplWZRYYttRivHtAA9g7GyeT-N2J67zFCLOhrW4ptXmKRyOQ/s1600/lundqvist.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh165SL8DFZc0Kdwz1TOp60W24xMrVevbyZPIs8hIBzQaM0Kg3J2MsU0ycGPZzCwPOoKSlTzQH1vGjK7kuboTOqSAlt2qbIplWZRYYttRivHtAA9g7GyeT-N2J67zFCLOhrW4ptXmKRyOQ/s1600/lundqvist.jpg" height="318" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span class="s1"> And speaking of streaks… Lundqvist’s streak of securing 30 wins in a full NHL season (he had a league-leading 24 wins in the shortened 2012-13 season) is at jeopardy. With 4 games remaining, Lundqvist finds himself at 28 wins, after missing several weeks with a neck/blood vessel injury.</span></div>
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S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-31306694821048458322015-04-05T12:27:00.000-07:002015-04-05T12:33:19.171-07:00J.T. Miller's Rising [Price Tag] J.T. Miller played in 15 games during all of October, November & December earlier this season. After failing to outclass fellow Blueshirt bluechips Kevin Hayes & Anthony Duclair for 3rd line forwardship in the 1st half of the season... Miller has recently resurged his priority in the NY Rangers regular lineup. In fact, Miller played in 15 games during the month of March alone!<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAzg46vuW1nKgNkQBD3zkwaE7Jh950TSyDT7JmP8tdTZK6YNkggY0-wVm9IHGQgeWKyAUn4qcLs-5Yx82V7I-EdeZTVPsXUPiFIXL42d0o5w6iqJRlVirB6672dnt-VrPLZKsEqXe5-co/s1600/miller.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAzg46vuW1nKgNkQBD3zkwaE7Jh950TSyDT7JmP8tdTZK6YNkggY0-wVm9IHGQgeWKyAUn4qcLs-5Yx82V7I-EdeZTVPsXUPiFIXL42d0o5w6iqJRlVirB6672dnt-VrPLZKsEqXe5-co/s1600/miller.jpg" height="424" width="640" /></a></div>
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Earlier in the season, it seemed Miller's cost of a new contract this summer would not be much higher than his $777,000 qualifying offer. In fact as little as a few months ago, there was no reason to think Miller would receive anything outside the $800,000-900,000 range on a 1-or-2-year deal. But with Miller suddenly becoming a relevant contributor to the Metropolitan Division champions (including a game-winning-assist & game-winning-goal vs. Winnipeg & Minnesota last week)... the question is now blooming: how much will J.T. Miller cost to keep this summer?<br />
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Since he is coming off of his entry-level contract, Miller does not have arbitration rights. Glen Sather has historically signed young forwards in this scenario to two-year 'bridge' contracts. So, in the interest of getting a feel for Miller's possible costs, I assembled 5 players whom could be noted as 'comparable.'<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-d83Msy9zh7VKMJ_js_XhtmRtzEJaV798-g7VjYo_cb8ZeW_ZbVlApsbHYg77CGvv8tDAiy2dXtRFLN111OGfmkx_NqjlegUL3yjZMHf9Z08hHknSGGNgDUToIfJuFnXVhGmSH6BjVgY/s1600/jt-miller-12-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-d83Msy9zh7VKMJ_js_XhtmRtzEJaV798-g7VjYo_cb8ZeW_ZbVlApsbHYg77CGvv8tDAiy2dXtRFLN111OGfmkx_NqjlegUL3yjZMHf9Z08hHknSGGNgDUToIfJuFnXVhGmSH6BjVgY/s1600/jt-miller-12-1.jpg" height="354" width="640" /></a></div>
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These 5 players all:<br />
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- Are players signed to a 2-year bridge deal following their entry-level-contract<br />
- All in their early 20's<br />
- All, like Miller, had no right to salary arbitration when signing their new contract<br />
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Let's look at the data:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUYGRPpHWWU41E4WElsWKvad721HmLtYs7N7mKNrdiaAUKZ5ZSCvuCzGKsTD8zHj1VTBsXL200xdvGclP6DeCzeWHsSYFtw40BB3zGYqUupAPVgwdWTsPAaSykx1US2iadZAJ-NTmJn_4/s1600/JTMILLERCOST.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUYGRPpHWWU41E4WElsWKvad721HmLtYs7N7mKNrdiaAUKZ5ZSCvuCzGKsTD8zHj1VTBsXL200xdvGclP6DeCzeWHsSYFtw40BB3zGYqUupAPVgwdWTsPAaSykx1US2iadZAJ-NTmJn_4/s1600/JTMILLERCOST.png" height="185" width="640" /></a></div>
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Miller has less years of age, career games, & career points-per-game than the average. Miller's pedigree is the only above-average characteristic.</div>
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So: is a 2-year $1.7 million/year contract something J.T. Miller can realistically be offered? Sather has a propensity to lowball his helpless restricted free agents... What would Miller be worth on a 1-year deal? $1.5 million?</div>
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The playoffs can make-or-break these numbers. Is it inconceivable for every postseason game-winning-goal scored by Miller to equate to a $25,000 increase to the figures we are currently discussing?</div>
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If the chart is any indicator... then 2.45% of the current $69 million salary cap would be $1.69 million/year.</div>
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Stay tuned...</div>
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S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-28770188078211029322015-04-03T10:36:00.002-07:002015-04-03T10:40:52.915-07:00Alain Vigneault: The Road Warrior<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN1p6N3h8Ne3HcP1r0FWBBremlsxh1uFC5kP9le8QJqah9X3CB1kkwWRWxfZost6ZKy5Whzyt_sKwWz2zinB6_MVPViAjRniukkZ4DS8tTwAzc1kML5Lchas09oC_R6UHfecAlIrLiMjc/s1600/image.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN1p6N3h8Ne3HcP1r0FWBBremlsxh1uFC5kP9le8QJqah9X3CB1kkwWRWxfZost6ZKy5Whzyt_sKwWz2zinB6_MVPViAjRniukkZ4DS8tTwAzc1kML5Lchas09oC_R6UHfecAlIrLiMjc/s1600/image.JPG" height="460" width="640" /></a></div>
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On Thursday night, Alain Vigneault broke his own NY Rangers record by setting the 89-year-old NHL franchise record for road wins in a single season (26), breaking his own record from last season (25). It should come to little surprise, as A.V.'s marriage in New York City is as strong and successfully vibrant than at any point before. Oh, and by the way, the NY Rangers still have 2 road games remaining this season, should A.V. want to set the bar even higher for 2015-16.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg38ssW8biFy-H8L01G4XTOJEkgeipoON6jui7jsXVwyMVK4tJv2IE58nQ8TEoKTl01P9-EsrNlDEc-PpQAeYfzU8bHPJKJ5BcKSfueZnwIC6N9olZAcP3nyIEG9LtgwWIfGb_aBXSwWR8/s1600/10609462_10205955770828917_8861091399451896479_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg38ssW8biFy-H8L01G4XTOJEkgeipoON6jui7jsXVwyMVK4tJv2IE58nQ8TEoKTl01P9-EsrNlDEc-PpQAeYfzU8bHPJKJ5BcKSfueZnwIC6N9olZAcP3nyIEG9LtgwWIfGb_aBXSwWR8/s1600/10609462_10205955770828917_8861091399451896479_n.jpg" height="400" width="640" /></a></div>
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The NY Rangers round out the regular season (after also having clinched the Metro Division last night as well) with road games in New Jersey [4/7] & Washington [4/11]. Should NY win both, the 2013/14 & 14/15 would be tied for the highest-winning-percentage NHL road team over a 2-year span since the 2005 lockout.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgExuWzTaIfwnBhMD3hKOJrEOPhs42p17og5IFjo-Th4EW_IIeG6tr9eT2H3WWmfKCUq6FNNFDHSi2aM6Xx8DI3Cb8w9J3r4KLMMjdEH_gizhwVrRavY0P-d8quM7iyyiLp8mO9-yPsh0o/s1600/KHV2Hcy.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgExuWzTaIfwnBhMD3hKOJrEOPhs42p17og5IFjo-Th4EW_IIeG6tr9eT2H3WWmfKCUq6FNNFDHSi2aM6Xx8DI3Cb8w9J3r4KLMMjdEH_gizhwVrRavY0P-d8quM7iyyiLp8mO9-yPsh0o/s1600/KHV2Hcy.jpg" height="640" width="384" /></a></div>
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I mean... is there any way Rangers fans COULDN'T be in love with this guy?<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiX_R-o6kB_poxL8-S9MHGELvmgW3mxrzVE7rxYzPMCf6b6OMETwTs1cjU8G4xVqQqa5Wxg6maBxV636xZ0nq3AmDpzjB9ifVi0Z2qa8oH3WDkeI4io9_vCMBFxwdInEcG95-UYBtjwEEU/s1600/RGSHDSRGH.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiX_R-o6kB_poxL8-S9MHGELvmgW3mxrzVE7rxYzPMCf6b6OMETwTs1cjU8G4xVqQqa5Wxg6maBxV636xZ0nq3AmDpzjB9ifVi0Z2qa8oH3WDkeI4io9_vCMBFxwdInEcG95-UYBtjwEEU/s1600/RGSHDSRGH.png" height="326" width="640" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiX_R-o6kB_poxL8-S9MHGELvmgW3mxrzVE7rxYzPMCf6b6OMETwTs1cjU8G4xVqQqa5Wxg6maBxV636xZ0nq3AmDpzjB9ifVi0Z2qa8oH3WDkeI4io9_vCMBFxwdInEcG95-UYBtjwEEU/s1600/RGSHDSRGH.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a></div>
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIehnX-OibA</div>
S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-24828763400237190032015-03-20T04:14:00.001-07:002015-03-20T07:53:24.120-07:00Cam Talbot's Trade Value & The 2015 Goalie Market<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><br /></span><span class="s1"> <span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>Why are people talking about trading Cam Talbot in the summer?</i></b></span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiciVgl_joJqTzfNG_uBoTsaeMTixHuSfj4tLzgrx9avJUFoi9paIX3EdY2oxktdYrBTrfhecQ0Rzm-Zh5kLi3CIp-MEeZ1AJkvJTFn3zmseXzODM0YjlIykhKQO4pniBEbjqGObTwJXIY/s1600/image.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiciVgl_joJqTzfNG_uBoTsaeMTixHuSfj4tLzgrx9avJUFoi9paIX3EdY2oxktdYrBTrfhecQ0Rzm-Zh5kLi3CIp-MEeZ1AJkvJTFn3zmseXzODM0YjlIykhKQO4pniBEbjqGObTwJXIY/s1600/image.JPG" height="301" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span class="s1"> The more impressive Talbot plays as the NY Ranger’s acting starter goalie since Henrik Lundqvist’s injury, the higher is trade value is. If a rival NHL team is looking for goaltending, the more Talbot makes a case as a legitimate NHL goalie, the more that team would be willing to give New York in a trade. With no disrespect to Talbot, nor denial of his exquisite play over the last several weeks... trading Talbot in the summer remains a very logical possibility.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> <span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>Is there a goalie controversy in New York?</i></b></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> No. There is not. Talbot has had a spectacular career since breaking into the league, and has successfully performed when asked to be a starter. But Lundqvist is on the first year of a massive $8.5 million per year contract, and will not be “dethroned” by anybody anytime soon. This is another reason why Talbot June trade rumors have already become speculative here in March.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> <span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>What is Talbot’s trade value?</i></b></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> It’s tough to say or measure what NYR could get for Talbot in a trade. There are a number of factors to consider when evaluating a goalie’s trade value in the off-season.</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> <span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>What factors are there to consider?</i></b></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> For starters:</span></div>
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<li class="li1"><span class="s1">How many goaltending spots/games are up-for-grabs in 2015-16?</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">How many goaltenders will be in the 2015 unrestricted free agent pool?</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">How convinced will rival General Managers be in Talbot as a (potential) franchise asset?</span></li>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i><span class="s1"></span><br /></i></b></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i> How many goaltending spots are currently up for grabs in 2015-16?</i></b></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"> Looking over the contracts of the other 29 NHL teams, we’d predict at least 7-11 goaltending spots currently available for next season…</span></div>
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<span class="s1"> - Buffalo & San Jose could be the biggest shoppers should Anders Lindback and/or Antti Niemi walk unrestricted when their contracts expire in July. Both teams have historic backups contracted 1 more year (BUF- Chad Johnson, SJS- Matt Stalock). Each franchise could be looking for 50-70 games of goaltending to fill.</span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> - Edmonton, with Viktor Fasth becoming an UFA, and Ben Scrivens only under contract 1 more year, could field suitors to play anywhere from 30-60 games go goaltending to fill.</span></div>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">Arizona, Calgary, Columbus, Dallas, NY Islanders, Philadelphia & Pittsburgh could also be looking for (back-up) goaltending this off-season:</span></li>
</ul>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i> Why is it 7-11 spots “at least?”</i></b></span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> Looking over incoming contract gaps isn’t everything to consider. There are some goalies who are currently set to be under contract in 2015-16, but could be bought out or buried in the minors in the next 6 months.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> <span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>What goalies are the likeliest to get buried or bought out in the off-season?</i></b></span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><b>Ondrej Pavelec</b>, <i>Winnipeg Jets</i>: With his below-average play, and rookie phenom Michael Hutchinson emerging as the franchise’s top-dog… The final 2 years of Pavelec’s deal could logically be bought out in June. With Winnipeg among the lowest-payroll clubs in the NHL, Talbot’s $1.45 million + Hutchinson’s $0.575 million could/would be the best bang-for-buck duo of netminding in quite some time.</span></li>
</ul>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><b>Niklas Backstrom</b>, <i>Minnesota Wild</i>: Similar to the above, Backstrom has 1 year left on his contract and has not put up quality numbers. Minnesota, whom has youngster Darcy Kuempfer under contract, is also set to lose Devon Dubynk & Josh Harding to free agency. Nobody would be surprised at a Backstroke buyout.</span></li>
</ul>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><b>Cam Ward</b>, <i>Carolina Hurricanes</i>: Notice the pattern? Relatively high cap hit on the final year of a hefty contract, coupled with below-average goaltending numbers in 2014-15, Ward is also a strong candidate to be bought out. It’s highly conceivable Carolina would free up room with a buyout to shop the market for someone to split time with Antoine Khudobin. </span></li>
</ul>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><b>Mike Smith</b>, <i>Arizona Coyotes</i>: While a 2015 buyout of Smith seems unlikely despite his disappointing 2014-15 campaign, Arizona will likely seek a back-up. If Arizona is open to the possibility of seeking a new starter in lieu of Talbot... a feasible course of action could be to acquire Talbot, and buyout Smith in 2016 before offering Talbot a new contract extension. Smith is under contract until 2019. </span></li>
</ul>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><b>James Reimer</b>, <i>Toronto Maple Leafs</i>: Should Toronto seek to couple Jonathan Bernier with a different goalie capable of playing 25-45 games other than Reimer, unless traded, could be bought out of his final contract year. Toronto will be under enormous pressure to improve this off-season, and made the slick salary cap trade of David Clarkson-for-Nathan Horton, to free up millions of dollars in theoretical spending (should Horton remain on Long Term IR as expected). </span></li>
</ul>
<div class="p2">
<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i><span class="s1"></span><br /></i></b></span>
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXs7EDl3HwTQRlLnov-_wNrqr1_nnMfwpuZ3EA9T0IKl6sB_hJ5WUm_zbcJqIgCtFg4to5gxBKkUSZgANOtvIO_SpJgwaWBHzNUBqy5dOrlctUveRPw5C4l9MKp9WqG2Bg_cWct7SbZ7M/s1600/fdhfhhdfgh.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXs7EDl3HwTQRlLnov-_wNrqr1_nnMfwpuZ3EA9T0IKl6sB_hJ5WUm_zbcJqIgCtFg4to5gxBKkUSZgANOtvIO_SpJgwaWBHzNUBqy5dOrlctUveRPw5C4l9MKp9WqG2Bg_cWct7SbZ7M/s1600/fdhfhhdfgh.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>* = Restricted Free Agent on July 1st, 2015</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i> That's great... So what is Talbot’s trade value?</i></b></span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> We know there’s 7-11 goalie spots, with perhaps more should buyouts or AHL-burials come about. There’s only 2 or 3 bonafide #1 goaltending spots, with the rest being back-ups or fifty-fifty splitters. </span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> The other side of the coin is: what is Talbot’s competition in filling these 2015-16 open spots? </span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> List of Top-15 outgoing Unrestricted Free Agent goaltenders with expiring contracts on July 1, 2015:</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">D. Dubynk</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">A. Niemi</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">V. Fasth</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">A. Hammond</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">M. Neuvirth</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">K. Ramo</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">J. Gustavsson</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">J. Enroth</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">A. Lindback</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">R. Emery</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">T. Greiss</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">D. Ellis</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">C. McElhinney</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">J. Harding</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">R. Bachman</span></li>
</ul>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> List of current 2nd/3rd string goalies under contract who could be traded to other teams as a 1st/2nd string goalie?</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><b>BOS:</b> N. Svedberg / M. Subban</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><b>CHI: </b>S. Darling / A. Raanta</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><b>COL:</b> R. Berra / C. Pickard</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><b>TBL:</b> A. Vasilevski / K. Gudlevskis</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1"><b>WSH:</b> J. Peters / P. Grubauer </span></li>
</ul>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i> So there are a lot of goalies out there to fill the 7-15 goalie spots available for next season. Again, what is Talbot’s trade value?</i></b></span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">A recent comparable to a goalie (similar to Talbot) being traded straight up for value was Corey Schneider in June 2013. At the time of his trade, Schneider had similar characteristics as Talbot does now (age, statistics, similar risk with investing in goalie as franchise starter). However... Talbot will have only played roughly half the NHL minutes as Schneider, making his sample size less, thus less proof that Talbot could be a legitimate big-minute NHL goalie. Schneider had more than triple Talbot’s ’15-’16 cap hit, but double the years under contract at the time of his trade.</span></li>
</ul>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> The Vancouver Canucks traded Schneider’s remaining contract year before unrestricted free agency to the New Jersey Devils on June 30th, 2013 for the 1st Round (9th overall) pick of the ’13 draft.</span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP77kp2PzJBfLfTgHzkc0t2vpbTrANobeS8cvZEfTEl_-cjcV-bOqxtnISA_RZ2F7jcDVf45P1LXUvWObKDRYkgwdel6p1KLiV_47cBQC0bAXC07RBn2VpB2VeKcSgRNdSbuaj9RVQczM/s1600/FGASHDXHD.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP77kp2PzJBfLfTgHzkc0t2vpbTrANobeS8cvZEfTEl_-cjcV-bOqxtnISA_RZ2F7jcDVf45P1LXUvWObKDRYkgwdel6p1KLiV_47cBQC0bAXC07RBn2VpB2VeKcSgRNdSbuaj9RVQczM/s1600/FGASHDXHD.png" height="243" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="p1">
<br /></div>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1"><br /></li>
</ul>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<br /></div>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1">The last time the NY Rangers traded a player with similar contract stature for a lone draft pick? When they traded Derek Dorsett to the Vancouver Canucks on June 27th, 2014 for their 3rd Round (85th overall) draft pick in the ’14 draft.</li>
</ul>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><span style="font-size: large;"><i><b> Conclusion:</b></i></span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> If Schneider fetched a 1st round & Dorsett fetched a 3rd round, it wouldn’t be the wildest thought in the world to figure Cam Talbot’s trade value as something around a 2nd Round draft pick in the '15 draft. Talbot’s NHL career has less sample size than Schneider’s, but would certainly fetch more than Dorsett in terms of potential value to a franchise. </span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">We predict that, alone, Talbot could be traded for a 2nd round pick in the off-season</span></li>
<li class="li1"><span class="s1">If an NHL club is really looking to upgrade goaltending, look for investment over the next stretch of seasons, NYR could probably throw in goaltending prospects Mackenzie Skapski, Brandon Halverson, or Igor Shestyorkin with Talbot for a 1st Round pick. Halverson & Shestyorkin both played in the latest World Juniors tournament, and Skapski recently became the lowest-drafted NHL goalie in history to record a shutout at age 20. </span></li>
</ul>
<div class="p2">
<span class="s1"></span><br /></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> With the franchise contract protecting franchise goalie Henrik Lundqvist, coupled with New York’s strong crop of young up-and-coming goalies, it would make a lot of sense to deal Talbot and 1 or 2 prospects to teams willing to pay quality draft picks. Draft picks acquired in the summer can always be used as trade chips for the following trade deadline, especially when it comes to NHL clubs more designed to win games in the present than down the road. </span></div>
<br />
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"> If the NHL salary cap only increases a few million dollars in 2015-16, as suggested by the most recent reports, then the potentially cap-strapped Rangers could logically shave up to $875,000 by trading Talbot and signing a minimum-wage free agent replacement. We shouldn’t count on Skapski stepping in as a full-time 2nd string in 2015-16 as he is early on in his professional career and will likely be the AHL affiliate Hartford Wolf Pack’s starter, getting regularly tough playing time. </span><br />
<span class="s1"><br /></span>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIi_V4zlO76roOlRZF9qk4OT3mreASc8k0LFFzWl96SzZS8HfWxyVEn9FjjdRV-nQd6w7h_0jQ807MlxE1kCf941JFUUBqzzIU_HgaGglDXeIiwd94dw7ncZXdvOKzOXysIwLtocWAmtk/s1600/taewar.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIi_V4zlO76roOlRZF9qk4OT3mreASc8k0LFFzWl96SzZS8HfWxyVEn9FjjdRV-nQd6w7h_0jQ807MlxE1kCf941JFUUBqzzIU_HgaGglDXeIiwd94dw7ncZXdvOKzOXysIwLtocWAmtk/s1600/taewar.png" height="432" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Cam Talbot's last 10 games</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<span class="s1"> And while NYR General Manager Glen Sather has made some awful signings in New York, all 3 of his Cam Talbot signings have been significantly great value. If Talbot is indeed traded for a 2nd round draft pick, it will be a total gain for the franchise. Talbot was initially signed out of the NCAA (University of Alabama) after being undrafted. It was for the NHL minimum wage. Before playing his 1st NHL game, before Martin Biron's suddent retirement in 2013... Talbot was re-signed for a 1-year extension at the same cap hit as his initial contract. And earlier this year, well before Lundqvist's strained neck blood vessel injury, Talbot was signed to another 1-year extension, this time $1.45 million. </span><br />
<br />
Of course there's still the chance he is not traded, and kept for the 2015-16 NYR campaign. If not sought to be a starter elsewhere, while in NY Talbot has demonstrated to be perhaps the premier NHL backup goaltender in the league.<br />
<br />
In summer of 2009, the NY Rangers traded a 5th round pick to Pittsburgh Penguins for NCAA (University of Alaska) goalie 23-year-old Chad Johnson. Safe to say, if traded, Cam Talbot would fetch more than that.<br />
<span class="s1"><br /></span>
<span class="s1"> </span></div>
S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-51090544274437615372015-03-12T01:41:00.000-07:002015-03-12T09:38:37.310-07:00NY Rangers Continue Elite Hockey, Kevin Klein Gets X-Rayed<div style="text-align: justify;">
Following the NY Rangers defeat of division rival Washington Capitals last night, the NY Rangers have moved into #1 in the NHL (with games at hand over everyone, mind you), causing the NYR fan online-community to drop some pretty absurd statistics in the hours following the game. Here are a few...<br />
<br />
<b>PROJECTED NHL STANDINGS POINTS OVER 82-GAMES:</b><br />
<b><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>via HockeyRodent.com</i></span></b><br />
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But on a less joyful subject...</div>
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In the final minute of the New York Rangers' 3-1 defeat of the Washington Capitals, Kevin Klein took a puck to the arm/shoulder and painfully made his way off the ice. Andrew Gross reported Klein, sporting bandages over his arm, when asked "Are you OK?', told reporters "No, not really." K.K. will have X-Rays taken, which is certainly not a good sign for Rangers fans. We here at SatherOnWaivers don't have any additional information to add to this story, but we can offer some analysis into the worst-case scenario:</div>
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In January 2013, Joffrey Lupul took a puck to the arm (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3uIlgzno-E" target="_blank">video HERE</a>), and ended up missing the next 52 days nursing a broken arm. If, hypothetically, Klein did suffer a broken bone last night, and such a timetable of recovery was given here: Klein would theoretically return the 1st week of May, likely the 2nd round of NHL playoffs. </div>
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While both Lupul & Klein's injuries appear similar to one another, it's not yet known whether or not the diagnosis will be comparable at all. In the mean time, Matt Hunwick, Chris Summers & Mike Kostka are the "spare" defensemen the NY Rangers have available in the event Klein misses serious time.</div>
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<i> Editor's Note:</i><br />
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<i> </i>Sounds as if Kevin Klein will miss time, likely a broken arm, could be 4-6 weeks. NHL Playoffs begin in 5.<br />
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S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2774079395677772578.post-32097675536199407902015-03-10T21:58:00.000-07:002015-03-10T22:42:44.152-07:00A Tale of Two Talbots - Cam's Fattest Rebound<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt; text-align: center;">
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img alt="Cam-Talbot_Henrik-Lundqvist.jpg" height="225" src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/QDbxkABQwJpHgc3y8zFJDJM4ObMfm8sY6TGKlB7wlTmWPRbi0bY58RmKw4tBjdS_pZdNLgZx7cBBuYOIH0uqPG8B64_zxDXcAiwNLsTN_17cWl4RHqhSrTvsJw32Vizeg1eynfw" style="-webkit-transform: rotate(0rad); border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="400" /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> It’s now been 17 dark, empty games since Henrik Lundqvist went down with the injury that would stress-test the Rangers goaltending depth for the first time since 2006.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Okay, it hasn’t been </span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">that</span><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> bad without the most consistent goaltender of the last decade. You’ve surely noticed the Rangers haven’t lost a step in the standings, and are now on pace to </span><a href="http://hockeyrodent.com/RODENT.HTM1" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">finish first in the NHL </span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">(check out the table in the right margin, as well as the quality writing elsewhere on Hockey Rodent).</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> So how have the Rangers managed to stay afloat without their all-world goaltender?</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> This is the tale of two Talbots.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> It wasn’t long ago that the Rangers signed Cam Talbot to his first contract extension, a </span><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tTsDyN_WFAC_AIpNJ5wDjB-Agum609qkxA4qqIwBteY/edit#gid=126732230" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">1-year $1.45M pact</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> that seemed part “thank you” and part “but you haven’t proved anything yet”. He played well in relief of Lundqvist in 2013-14, and stood out when Lundqvist’s contract extension was impacting the King’s game (not a proven theory, but it sure did seem like it). The fact that Talbot even made the team last season was remarkable on its own. Nobody saw the sudden retirement of Martin Biron coming, especially not in the first few weeks of the season. Talbot moved into the backup role and finished the season with a .941 SV% and 1.61 GAA in 19 starts - more than you could ask for from your second in command in his first season.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">So when the Lundqvist injury shocked the hockey world, Talbot was thrust into yet another opportunity. Let’s take a look at his first 8 games since the Rangers sidelined Lundqvist.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img height="204px;" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/HjPLXsJ6hKYOyXaLAN_i7tkjv-RC5GbTS9pr1-8tC9ov8BiAEsErAR_P4VIL60zhDXRnHTZ3uKKZPsVurfphf-rfo_ZSMwulcWAxbwju_5ofFfrycTg9tJDKjX7gqD-j8p-Ry7Y" style="-webkit-transform: rotate(0rad); border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="467px;" /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Yikes! These are uncharacteristically bad numbers, even if he did pick up five wins. Also, five of these games were on the road, but three of those games came against non-playoff teams. There’s no denying how fun these games were to watch, but Rangers management may not have enjoyed the constant lead-changes and puck-handling gaffes that were becoming almost habitual. And then the rumors started.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtY6crvBCjOw-TC5K4fJQy2Yru3QuNnycIbVs1fLCHVwjLmE2S9UsiHB0Ir05M1FG44faltENRkHx8jmoH454eamUmZzZ2-JN9lvZ5gb8Yfm2-EOqL0aq6XsC_Ur0Pgo1T0zfQX7kWywwJ/s640/GiantStayPuft.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtY6crvBCjOw-TC5K4fJQy2Yru3QuNnycIbVs1fLCHVwjLmE2S9UsiHB0Ir05M1FG44faltENRkHx8jmoH454eamUmZzZ2-JN9lvZ5gb8Yfm2-EOqL0aq6XsC_Ur0Pgo1T0zfQX7kWywwJ/s640/GiantStayPuft.gif" height="200" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> The Rangers </span><a href="http://snyrangersblog.com/rangers/buzz-the-rangers-interest-in-antoine-vermette-and-the-reported-asking-price/" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">had been linked to Antoine Vermette</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> for months leading up to the trade deadline, as the center position was believed to be the weakest part of their roster. With Talbot struggling, the focus shifted to possibly acquiring a veteran goaltender to lighten the load until Lundqvist returned. An addition like this could handcuff the cap-crunched Rangers heading into the deadline.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Alain Vigneault saw an opportunity to give Talbot some rest (remember, this is the first time Talbot’s been a “number one” goalie in a couple of years), and</span><a href="http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=137665" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Mackenzie Skapski</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> was given his first NHL start against Buffalo, winning 3-1 after allowing a goal in the first 14 seconds of the game. Since that game, Vigneault has handed the reigns to Talbot, and here’s what he has to show for it.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img height="196px;" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/moqk-okaVTGsBte1wi3bNVZNq8F7nDM7U3IGWuHkWN0j2KEdCjt9i-kdwTr9gU_cqJ6EDI9iV7XcoiaELs9YR2O8y9OuxqAWt-pjFpmLtB4OFvdai02fnRYmM454dKQmIRC0agM" style="-webkit-transform: rotate(0rad); border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="466px;" /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> His numbers are... ridiculous. It’s hard to say which statistic is the most impressive, but being named </span><a href="http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=757229" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">3rd star of the week by the NHL</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> is certainly on the list, an honor bestowed on Lundqvist only four times in his career. If you pull out just his March numbers, it’s even more impressive:</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><img height="87px;" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/nN5-AE_dCb3R2TLHYNA5Ca2n7Htn20XSAORp1jfdjO06SAwvIHP-hEgobF8teNvUKYNR1dEph2tIYQVhORn6nO6K-5fjgVcJa6mXpTyhqp_N5ABs2RcJHgwsynN5qgFvpJo7qE8" style="-webkit-transform: rotate(0rad); border: none; transform: rotate(0rad);" width="452px;" /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Talbot has started off the month by facing four of the League’s top teams, and scooping up 7 out of 8 possible points. We’ll let his individual numbers speak for themselves, though we can’t leave out that his shutout of the Blackhawks was the first by a Rangers goalie since </span><a href="http://nypost.com/2015/03/08/talbot-makes-history-in-shutout-as-rangers-roll-past-chicago/" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">1969</span></a><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">--------------------</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Henrik Lundqvist is still the undisputed leader of this team, and 17 games isn’t going to change that, at least not this season. Nobody should doubt that Talbot will be second-banana in April, but he does give the Rangers something that a playoff team never realizes it needs until it doesn’t have it: a solid backup goalie. </span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Just ask Montreal...</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> And thinking a bit longer down the road, his $1.425M cap hit is sure looking pretty cheap right now, don’t you think? </span><a href="http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015/03/sathers-busy-summer-part-1.html" style="text-decoration: none;"><span style="background-color: transparent; color: #1155cc; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I wonder what he’d fetch on the trade market...</span></a></div>
S.O.W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/11665481254017262006noreply@blogger.com0