Excluding Del Zotto...

Assuming 1) Stepan is re-signed for $4 million/year & 2) Del Zotto is traded away...

Hagelin -- Stepan -- Nash

Kreider - Richards - Callahan

Pouliot - Brassard - Zuccarello

Boyle -- D. Moore -- Dorsett

Pyatt -- Mashinter - Haley

Buried: (Powe + Asham)

McDonagh - Girardi

Staal ----- Stralman

Falk ------ J. Moore

Syrvet -- A. Johnson

Lundqvist

Biron

Total Cap Hit: $64.263 million

Avbl Cap Space: $0.037 million

* This is enough room for 2 replacement forwards for Cally/Hagelin to start the season with 3 minimum-wage contracts on top of that. Should NY remain under the salary cap & remain healthy, bigger call-up contracts like Miller or Kristo (2x minimum wage) could be called up in lieu of more bodies/less cap hit. In other words, if the team escapes injury come October except for Cally/Hags, you could replace Mashinter+Haley for Miller, or Syrvet+Johnson for Kristo, etc

* Contracts like Boyle or Pyatt, while more expendable pieces than Del Zotto, remain with significantly less trade value. In other words I would rather dump Boyle or Pyatt than Del Zotto, but as far as marketable trade value they are 'less tradable.'

* We've also seen GM Glen Sather historically find unemployed defenseman in late September in hopes of signing them to cheap 23rd-hour 1-year deals (Alex Semenov, Anton Stralman). Should LD Ron Hainsey, for example, remain a free agent come October 1st, what would his 1-yr contract look like? And how much would something like this further induce Sather to trade away Del Zotto?

Zuccarello Arbitration, Derek Stepan, & August Ponderings

   Mats Zuccarello's salary arbitration date has been set for Wednesday July 31st. Under the old CBA, if a player filed for arbitration and won more than $1.05 million/year, the team HAD to sign them to the arbiter's deal. However, under the new CBA, that amount has been raised to $3.50 million, which Zucc is sure to receive less than. In other words, unless Glen Sather can sign Zucc to a contract prior to the arbitration date, NY will take on whatever cap hit is decided. 

   This means, starting August 1, and barring any trades or relevant free gency signings... Glen Sather will have only C Derek Stepan (whom is coming off his entry-level contract and has no arbitration rights) to re-sign. In other words, all the other puzzle pieces save Stepan will be transparent by July 31st at the latest, and Sather's task of arranging 24 or 25 of them under the $64.3 million salary cap will be the writing on the Wall Street.

   We know Carl Hagelin & Ryan Callahan will be injured to start the NHL regular season in October. What we don't know is when they're expected to return, or if Glen Sather intends to put them on Long-Term Injured Reserve to receive cap relief. What we do know, however, is their will need to be, at a bare minimum, 22 roster spots under the cap by the season opener. More conservatively, hedging against potential injuries in training camp/preseason, it's an appropriate exercise to expect to fit 24 or 25 players under the cap.

   Let's look at the current Top 24 roster spots (2G-8D-14). Cap hits are including contract bonuses, numbers are player's salary cap hit in ($ millions):

Hagelin (2.250) ---- Stepan (?.???) ----- Nash (7.800)

Kreider (1.325) --- Richards (6.667) - Callahan (4.275)

Zuccarello (?.???) -- Brassard (3.200) -- Boyle (1.7000)

Pouliot (1.300)  --- D. Moore (1.000) - Dorsett (1.633)

McDonagh (4.700) - Girardi (3.325)

Staal (3.975) ---- Stralman (1.700)

Del Zotto (2.550) - J. Moore (0.965)

Lundqvist (6.875) / Biron (1.300)

Extra Skaters (Taxi Squad) :

F Haley (0.600)

F Pyatt (1.550)

LD Falk (0.917)

LD A. Johnson (0.600)

Buried Forwards Cap Hit: Asham + Powe (0.217)

'13-'14 CAP HIT:::::: $60,482,000

'13-'14 CAP SPACE : $3,818,000

   Unfortunately for NY, Zuccarello will probably, with a rough guesstimate, receive $1.5+ million on a 1-year deal. Stepan, unless negotiations turn into a stalemate contract holdout, will probably receive $3+ million/year. With those predictions, Glen Sather needs a minimum of $4.5 million in cap space to retain Zucc & Stepan within the next 12 weeks.

   Mind you, the possibility of Hagelin and/or Callahan being placed on Long Term Injured Reserve exists. The team could very well be receiving LTIR cap credit  to begin the season. HERE is a great article by HockeyRodent explaining LTIR. But for the sake of this exercise we will assume the cap is $64.3 million with no LTIR placement.

   Under this projection, there is only $3.8 million. These findings would lead one to believe Sather will probably have a $700,000 MINIMUM payroll crunch. If Sather wishes to lock Stepan with a long-term deal, it'll be even more. Let's ponder some options for making some room for Zucc + Stepan while keeping the roster count at 24 players:

* Trading LD Michael Del Zotto for draft pick(s) or prospect(s), and recalling AHL'er LD Danny Syrvet (0.5875), would reduce this payroll by $1.9625 million. Pairs would then be McDonagh-Girardi, Staal-Stralman, Falk-Moore, Syrvet-Johnson

* Trading away Boyle and promoting AHL prospect C Oscar Lindbergh (0.760) as a fill-in forward, would reduce this payroll by $940,000. 

* Trading away Boyle, and not burying Powe, would reduce this payroll by ~$750,000

* Trading away Dorsett, and not burying Asham, would reduce this payroll by ~$700,000

* Trading away Boyle and promoting AHL prospect W Jasper Fasth (0.900) a spot on 3rd line wing, would reduce this payroll by $600,000. 

* Fasth beating out Kreider for roster spit would reduce this payroll by ~$425,000. 

* J.T. Miller (1.2442) beating out Kreider for roster spot would reduce this payroll by ~ $80,000. 

* W Danny Kristo (1.300) beating out Kreider for roster spot would reduce this payroll by ~ $25,000.

*   *   *   *   *   *   *   *

   I would surmise Stepan's contract value, depending on contract length, would be something very similar to Ryan McDonagh's ultimate price range:

2 years - $3.000 million/yr

3 years - $3.333 million/yr

4 years - $3.700 million/yr

5 years - $4.100 milion/yr

6 years - $4.667 million/yr

*   *   *   *   *   *   *   *

   Keep in mind, as well, NY has a secondary buyout window in August because at least one player filed for arbitration. Trades, buyouts, contract burials, or additional free agent signings remain a possibility... or perhaps probability... to go down this August. Someone get me some popcorn.

Putting The Pieces Together: No Room for Zucc, Del Zotto?

Current look at NY Rangers roster:

Hagelin (2.250) - Stepan (?.???) - Nash (7.800)

Kreider (1.325) - Brassard (3.200) - Callahan (4.275)

Pouliot (1.300) - Richards (6.667) - Boyle (1.700)

Pyatt (1.550) - D. Moore (1.000) - Dorsett (1.633)

Haley (0.600) - Powe (1.067) - Asham (1.000)

McDonagh (4.700) - Girardi (3.325)

Staal (3.975) - Stralman (1.700)

J. Moore (0.965) - Del Zotto (2.550)

Falk (?.???) - A. Johnson (0.600)

Lundqvist (6.875)

Biron (1.300)

TOTAL: $61.358 million (just under $3 million cap room to sign Stepan & Falk)

*Let's assume Falk signs for a hair more than his qualifying offer, for a cap hit of $866,667/year

Now that makes the payroll $62.225 million, with only Stepan left unsigned. Unfortunately, $2.075 million/year is still not enough cap space to retain Stepan, even to a 1 or 2 year "bridge" contract.

** Let's assume Michael Del Zotto is traded for picks/prospects, and newly-acquired LD Danny Syrvet (with a cap hit of $587,500) is called up from Hartford. Now the roster would look like:

Hagelin (2.250) - Stepan (?.???) - Nash (7.800)

Kreider (1.325) - Brassard (3.200) - Callahan (4.275)

Pouliot (1.300) - Richards (6.667) - Boyle (1.700)

Pyatt (1.550) - D. Moore (1.000) - Dorsett (1.633)

Haley (0.600) - Powe (1.067) - Asham (1.000)

McDonagh (4.700) - Girardi (3.325)

Staal (3.975) - Stralman (1.700)

J. Moore (0.965) - Falk (0.867)

Syrvet (0.588) - A. Johnson (0.600)

Lundqvist (6.875)

Biron (1.300)

*** Now with this roster, a total payroll of $60.275, NY has slightly over $4 million to spend on Stepan's new contract without going over the salary cap.

Hagelin (2.250) - Stepan*(4.000) - Nash (7.800)

Kreider (1.325) - Brassard (3.200) - Callahan (4.275)

Pouliot (1.300) - Richards (6.667) - Boyle (1.700)

Pyatt (1.550) - D. Moore (1.000) - Dorsett (1.633)

Haley (0.600) - Powe (1.067) - Asham (1.000)

McDonagh (4.700) - Girardi (3.325)

Staal (3.975) - Stralman (1.700)

J. Moore (0.965) - Falk*(0.867)

Syrvet (0.588) - A. Johnson (0.600)

Lundqvist (6.875)

Biron (1.300)

TOTAL PAYROLL: $64.26 million (~$40,000 below salary cap)

Asham & Powe Waived; Del Zotto & Kreider Future?; Tom Gilbert to Sweeten the RD Market

   NY Rangers have placed 4th liners W Arron Asham & C Darrel Powe on waivers today. Is this a harbinger of Sather's intention to NOT include them in next season's top-25 roster spots? Let's take yet another slightly-revised look at NY's salary cap situation should this be the case:

Hagelin*(1.8000) ----- Stepan*(3.2500) - Callahan (4.2750)

Kreider (1.3250) ----- Richards (6.6667) ----- Nash (7.8000)

Zuccarello*(1.8000) - Brassard (3.2000) -- Dorsett (1.6333)

Haley (0.6000) --------- Boyle (1.7000) ------ Pyatt (1.5500)

XXXXXXXXXX ---- XXXXXXXXXX --- XXXXXXXXXX

McDonagh*(4.0000) -- Girardi (3.3250)

Staal (3.9750) --------- Stralman (1.7000)

Del Zotto (2.5500) --- XXXXXXXXXXX

Moore (0.9650) ------- XXXXXXXXXXX

Lundqvist (6.8750) / Biron (1.3000)

TOTAL PAYROLL ABOVE: $60.3 Million

(leaving $4 million in cap space for bottom 4-5 [call-up] roster spots)

AHL Candidates:

LD --- Connor Allen -------- (1.7750)

RW -- Danny Kristo -------- (1.3000)

RD -- Dylan McIlrath ------ (1.2950)

 F ---- J.T. Miller ----------- (1.2442)

 C --- Darrel Powe ---------- (1.0667) [Waived 07/04/13]

 W --- Arron Asham -------- (1.0000) [Waived 07/04/13]

 F ---- Kyle Jean ------------ (0.9250)

 F ---- Josh Nicholls -------- (0.9250)

 F ---- Ryan Bourque ------- (0.9000)

W ---- Jesper Fasth --------- (0.9000)

LD --- Justin Falk ----------*(0.8875) [RFA]

 C ---- Michael St. Croix --- (0.8700)

W ---- Andrew Yogan ------ (0.8000)

 F ---- Oscar Lindberg ------ (0.7600)

RD -- Stu Bickel ------------- (0.7500)

W ---- Marek Hrivik -------- (0.6850)

RD -- Sam Noreau ---------- (0.6450)

RD -- Tommy Hughes ------ (0.6083)

 F ---- Brandon Mashinter -*(0.6050) [RFA]

 F ---- Jason Wilson --------- (0.5883)

LD --- Danny Syrvet -------- (0.5875)

 F ---- Michael Kantor ------ (0.5833)

* = Hypothetical contract with guesstimated cap hit

*   *   *   *   *

   Minnesota Wild have exercised an amnesty buyout on RD Tom Gilbert. Gilbert is 30 years old and capable of playing 20+ minutes per game, making him one of the top-tier right-handed defensemen hitting the open market tomorrow. Others include Ian White, Marek Zidlicky, Joe Corvo & Ryan O'Byrne. Perhaps available at the post-buyout discount era of Gilbert's career, it would not be surprising to see GM Glen Sather make a pitch for Gilbert. Girardi & Stralman remain the only two righties capable of playing big minutes. Stu Bickel, Dylan McIlrath, Sam Noreau and/or Tommy Hughes represent minor league righthanded-defensemen under contract, should the 3rd pair vacancy be (unlikely) awarded to an in-house righty pointman.

   The additions of low-cap hit, left-handed defensemen Justin Falk & Danny Syrvet continue to poke a curious preponderance of Michael Del Zotto's future as a NY Ranger. The trade for NCAA scoring leader RW Danny Kristo can only provide more secondguessing as to W Chris Kreider's certainty of a roster spot this October as well.

   Unrestricted free agency begins within 24 hours. Let the chaos begin.

Glen Sather Looks Poised To Make Yet Another Important Summer Trade

   With the acquisition of left-handed defenseman Justin Falk from the Minnesota Wild (in exchange for AHL'er F Ben Ferriero & a 6th Round draft pick)... let's look at the top 25 roster spots relative to next year's salary cap. For the sake of example, we will assume RFAs & UFA Steve Eminger will all re-sign to 2-year contracts extensions.

Hagelin (1.875)*------ Stepan (3.300)*-------- Nash (7.800)

Kreider (1.325) ------ Brassard (3.200) --- Callahan (4.275)

Zuccarello (1.875)*-- Richards (6.667) ----- Dorsett (1.633)

Pyatt (1.550) ----------- Boyle (1.700) ------- Asham (1.000)

Haley (0.600) ---------- Powe (1.067) ----- Newbury (0.600)

McDonagh (3.333)*------- Girardi (3.325)

Staal (3.975) ------------- Stralman (1.700)

Del Zotto (2.550) -------- Eminger*(0.925)

Moore (0.965) / Falk (0.875)*

Lundqvist (6.875) / Biron (1.300)

* LD Ryan McDonagh re-signs 2-year, $3.333 million/yr contract

* C Derek Stepan re-signs 2-year, $3.300 million/yr contract

* W Carl Hagelin re-signs 2-year, $1.875 million/yr contract

* W Mats Zuccarello re-signs 2-year, $1.875 million/yr contract

* RD Steve Eminger re-signs 2-year, $0.925 million/yr contract

* LD Justin Falk signs 2-year, $0.875 million/yr contract

TOTAL: $64.29 million on top 25 roster spots [15F+8D+2G]

$10,000 below Salary Cap

AHL Forwards: 

JT Miller, J Fasth, O Lindberg, R Bourque, C Thomas, B Mashinter, M St. Croix, J Nicholls, M Hrivik, N Palmieri, K Jean, A Yogan, M Kantor, J Wilson

AHL Defensemen:

LD C Allen, RD D McIlrath, RD S Noreau, LD T Hughes, LD J Niemi

AHL Goalies:

C Talbot

   Well, it would appear Glen Sather has left himself little room to utilize the 2013 free agent market. This assortment of 25 roster players just squeezes roughly $10,000 below the salary cap, if all 25 players were to be on-roster for the entire season with nobody placed on long-term injured reserve. This roster situation leads the outside eye to conclude a few thoughts...

   1) Come October, is NYR General Manager Glen Sather truly comfortable with the team remaining largely unchanged from now? If so, and perhaps the retention of C Brad Richards from amnesty buyout suggests this as well, Sather may be confident enough in a coaching regime revolution to leave the young roster largely alone this off-season. It may be a case of keeping last year's playoff roster largely intact, with the intent of more trade deadline moves to alter/improve the roster down the final stretch of the 2013-14 regular season. This would mean a very boring off-season for NY Rangers fans. 

   2) Is Glen Sather planning on improving the roster via trade? Since there looks like very little cap space to add any free agents of impact, and will not exercise his final amnesty buyout this summer, change via trade is the only other alternative. Purely on speculation, acquiring yet another left-handed defenseman in Falk may suggest a preface before some sort of transaction with another club. Mind you, all top-8 defensemen listed above must pass through waivers next season if demoted to the AHL. Of the 5 left-handed defensemen to be traded, don't be surprised to see Michael Del Zotto get shipped off, perhaps for a forward with similar salary ($2.55 mil/yr) and 1 or 2 years left on his contract.

   3) What are the 2014-15 ramifications of this roster? One year from now, NY will have many decisions to make as a plethora of significant contracts expire. For the sake of example, let's assume  the salary cap rises to an even $65 million for 2014-15. How does the current top-25 look?

2014 Off-Season

Hagelin (1.875)*------ Stepan (3.300)*-------- Nash (7.800)

Kreider (RFA) -------- Brassard (RFA) ----- Callahan (UFA)

Zuccarello (1.875)*-- Richards?(6.667) ----- Dorsett (1.633)

Pyatt (UFA) ----------- Boyle (UFA) ------- Asham (UFA)

Haley (UFA) ---------- Powe (UFA) ----- Newbury (UFA)

McDonagh (3.333)*------- Girardi (UFA)

Staal (3.975) ------------- Stralman (UFA)

Del Zotto (RFA) -------- Eminger*(0.925)

Moore (RFA) / Falk (0.875)*

Lundqvist (UFA) / Biron (UFA)

   Yikes, that $32.26 million (49.6% of Salary Cap) tied up in 6 forwards, 4 defensemen & no goalies. It leaves, for the sake of this example, $32.74 million to spend on 9 forwards, 4 defensemen & 2 goalies within the guesstimated '13-'14 salary cap. However, keeping in mind next June is the final window of potential amnesty buyouts, we will assume C Brad Richards is amnestied in June 2014. Now there's approximately $25.6 million to spend on 10 forwards, 4 defensemen, & 2 goalies. 

Estimated Contract Value in Summer 2014

UFA - H. Lundqvist -------------------- $8.333 million/year

UFA - R. Callahan --------------------- $4.333 million/year

UFA - D. Girardi ----------------------- $4.000 million/year

RFA - D. Brassard --------------------- $3.667 million/year

RFA - M. Del Zotto -------------------- $2.800 million/year

UFA - 3rd Line Center ----------------- $2.750 million/year

UFA - A. Stralman --------------------- $2.400 million/year

RFA - C. Kreider ----------------------- $1.667 million/year

UFA - B. Boyle/4th Line Center ------ $1.750 million/year

RFA - J. Moore ------------------------- $1.000 million/year

UFA - M Biron/Backup Goalie ------- $0.800 million/year

UFA - A. Asham/4th Line Wing ------ $0.750 million/year

UFA - T. Pyatt/4th Line Wing -------- $0.750 million/year

UFA - M. Haley/4th Line Wing ------ $0.750 million/year

UFA - D. Powe/4th Line Center ------ $0.750 million/year

UFA - K. Newbury/4th Line Wing --- $0.750 million/year

+==========================================

10 Forwards + 4 Defensemen + 2 Goalies = $37.25 million

   Unfortunately, based on a very speculative guesstimation on the players' respective contract values for next summer, it's highly unlikely everyone important can be retained, even if that was Sather's hypothetical plan or desire. By my arithmetic, NY would need a salary cap of $76.67 million to retain this summer's top-25 roster spots next summer. Although, granted, a salary cap spike into the early $70 millions in 2014-15 is not out of the question at all.

   In other words, yet another Glen Sather trade of great importance is almost certainly bound to happen in the next calendar year. Unless the NY Rangers are confident in the current top-25 roster spots, one would think a trade this summer is probable, and a trade before July 1st, 2014 is a near lock to happen.

   Finally, with the 2013 NHL Entry Draft wrapping up Sunday, let's look at the 2014 & 2015 Draft picks NY Rangers currently have, which can obviously be used as currency in potential future trades:

2014 NHL Entry Draft Picks Held By NY Rangers

1st Round Pick    

2nd Round Pick*    

3rd Round Pick

4th Round Pick

5th Round Pick**

5th Round Pick***

6th Round Pick

7th Round Pick****

2015 NHL Entry Draft Picks Held By NY Rangers

1st Round Pick

2nd Round Pick

3rd Round Pick

4th Round Pick

5th Round Pick

5th Round Pick

6th Round Pick

7th Round Pick

* (to be sent to San Jose should F Ryan Clowe re-sign in NY this summer)

** (to be sent to San Jose should F Ryan Clowe NOT re-sign in NY)

*** (Florida Panther's Pick acquired in 2012 Casey Wellman trade)

****(to be sent to San Jose contingent upon an unknown condition)

  

Rangers Salary Cap Situation Heading Into Draft, UFA Market

With recent light of NY Rangers intent on remaining with Richards for at least one more season, here's a look at salary cap expectations at the current roster situation:

Hagelin*----------- Stepan*---------- Nash
Kreider ---------- Brassard ------ Callahan
Zuccarello*------ Richards ------- Dorsett
Pyatt ----------- Boyle/Powe ------- Asham

McDonagh*- Girardi
Staal --------- Stralman
Del Zotto - Moore/Eminger*

Lundqvist/Biron

This lineup of 22 roster players would hypothetically cost $61.3 million, which would be $3 million below the 2014 salary cap. However, with Callahan & Hagelin already presumed injured for the beginning of next season, it will be prudent to leave cap room for as many as 25 or 26 skaters come October.

*McDonagh: Estimating new $4 million/year contract
*Stepan: Estimating new $3.325 million/year contract
*Zuccarello: Estimating new $1.8 million/year contract
*Hagelin: Estimating new $1.8 million/year contract
*Eminger: Estimating new $900,000/year contract

Here is a list of NHL forwards set to become unrestricted free agents on July 5th, sorted by their average icetime-per-game last season (from CapGeek):

Here is a list of NHL defensemen set to become unrestricted free agents on July 5th, sorted by their average icetime-per-game last season (from CapGeek):

Thursday's Playoff Picture in the East, Lundqvist vs Vezina Candidates & April Round-Up

The Toronto Maple Leafs lost in regulation to the Tampa Bay Lightning on Wednesday night, keeping the #5 seed within remote reach of our New York Rangers. Let's look at Thursday's matchups:

New York Rangers @ Carolina Hurricanes 7:00

New York Islanders @ Philadelphia Flyers 7:00

 Ottawa Senators @ Washington Capitals   7:00

Toronto Maple Leafs @  Florida Panthers  7:30

 Montreal Canadiens @  Winnipeg Jets    8:00

NY Rangers can clinch 8th-or-better seeding with the following on Thursday night:

   - A NY Rangers win at Carolina

   - A Winnipeg loss vs Montreal (in regulation)

   - If Winnipeg loses in overtime/shootout & NY Rangers do not lose in regulation

   *A Winnipeg win, or loss in overtime/shootout, would force NY Rangers to collect at least one standings point to counter

   *If Winnipeg collects 1 or 2 points (they have the tiebreaker so NY Rangers can't tie with Winnipeg), and NY Rangers lose in Carolina, the good guys would have to earn at least a point in their season finale vs NJ Devils on Saturday

What about 5th place?

   - Again, NY Rangers must earn 4 of a possible 4 standings points, while Toronto earn 0 of a possible 4. NY Rangers would also need Ottawa and NY Islanders to earn 55 or less standings points by season's end. 

In other words, it's a safe bet NY will finish 6th-8th, unless they get real lucky and take 5th, or real unlucky and get squeezed out to 9th. Thursday morning, HockeyRodent updated his mathematical projection for Broadway:

*   *   *

   Switching gears, the conclusion of the regular season is also the annual chalkup of trophy candidates, or in Henrik Lundqvist's case, the Vezina (best goalie voted on by GM's) and the Hart (league all-around MVP). Lundqvist is the defending Vezina-winner, and top-tier candidate for either this season.

   Before we digress, the stat 'goalie point share' (or GPS) is a stat in which there is an equation attempting to mathematically express how many standings points the goalie earned his team in a given game(s). Example: If a goalie has a GPS of 5.5, he is theoretically responsible for earning 5.5 standings points for his team that season.

   I've consequently created a 'relative goalie point share' (or Rel GPS) to display what percent of an NHL team's standings points a goalie has earned (GPS divided by standings points). Example: If Mike Richter had a GPS of 11.7 in 1993-94, where the team ended with 112 standings points, his Relative GPS would be 11.7 divided by 112 = 10.446%. Mike Richter earned 10.446% of his team's 112 standings points in 1993-94.

   Additionally, my 'point share rating' (or PSR) stat displays how the goalie's GPS compares to the next biggest point-share total on his team (skater or goalie). Example: If Mike Richter had a GPS of 11.7, and the biggest/next biggest skater/player point-share on the team was Brian Leetch with 13.3, Richter's PSR would be his 11.7 divided by Leetch's 13.3 = 87.97%. Mike Richter earned 87.97% of the team's top point-share leader whom wasn't Mike Richter (Brian Leetch).

   There is also measurement for skaters and their theoretical 'point share' on a team as well. You can read more about it on the wonderful site Hockey-Reference. 

   Let's look at this chart of Vezina candidates (minimum 1,701+ minutes played this season):

   Unfortunately, Henrik Lundqvist only leads the candidates is one stat: Relative Point-Share. Henrik Lundqvist earning 17.31% of his team's standings points is the most proportionately for any goaltender in the NHL to earn that much of his club's standings points. So while the Vezina may very well be headed to Rask, Niemi or Bobrovsky... could King Henrik win the Hart MVP but lose the Vezina? Probably not, but any goalie sporting his numbers on a fringe-playoff team deserves certain credit. Lundqvist is 4th in wins on an 8th place team. Lundqvist has razor sharp GAA and SV% numbers, but only once did he record a shutout. Consistent battling is Lundqvist's game, and relative to the team he has around him, he deserves an honest look for the Hart.

   By the way, there has never been a goaltender to win Vezina while having a Point-Share Rating of less than 125.00% in the salary-cap era. The last goalie to win the Hart, Jose Theodore in 2001-02, had an incredible 255.88% PSR. Despite yet another season of elite goaltending, Lundqvist will probably not win the Vezina nor the Hart this season. But, alas, one never knows in these things.

*   *   *

   And finally, before the month of May comes in and Rangers Country goes Lincoln Tunnel-vision into the playoffs... One last look at Glen Sather's roster, with notes and concerns for the franchise in as many respects as possible. Once the postseason begins there won't be talk of free agency, salary cap or trades until June. Where do we stand at the end of the 2013 season?

   Approximately 3 weeks after the NHL trade deadline, which featured the Marian Gaborik exodus and the Ryan Clowe/Derek Brassard/John Moore acquistions, New York is among league leaders in goals-scored. However, look no further than the relative strength of the schedule and subsequent weakness of opponents to remember this team is still offensively challenged; especially when the Panthers, Sabres, Hurricanes, Devils & Lightning are nowhere to be seen come playoffs.

   Let's check out our depth chart heading into the playoffs:

[7.8000] Rick Nash (29) - [0.8750] Derek Stepan** (23) - [4.2750] Ryan Callahan (28)
 [0.7000]Mats Zuccarello**(27) - [6.6667]Brad Richards(33) - [3.6250]Ryan Clowe*(31)
[0.8750] Carl Hagelin**(25) - [3.2000] Derick Brassard (26) - [1.7000] Brian Boyle (29)

[1.3250] Chris Kreider (22) - [1.0667] Darroll Powe (28) -- [1.0000] Aaron Asham (35)  

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[1.6333] Derek Dorsett (27) --- [1.2442] J.T. Miller (20) ------ [1.5500] Taylor Pyatt (32)

  

 The single * signifies player will be an unrestricted free agent (UFA) this July 1st

   The double ** signifies player will be a restricted free agent (RFA) this July 1st

   Observations

   1) Brian Boyle is currently day-to-day with a leg injury, and Dorsett a shoulder injury. Miller would be a favorite to step-in if a 1st or 2nd line player went down, while Dorsett or Pyatt could prove more prudent if it's a 3rd or 4th line injury. Kreider playing 4th line minutes, probably not best for his development to play under 10 minutes a game, and do so with Powe and Asham, clearly indicates a lack of forward depth and/or development. Despite no metrics for this claim, I suspect New York to be one of the shallowest forward depths in the Eastern playoff picture. 

   2) This group of 15 forwards totals $37.5358 million. If we stingily count just the top 12, the total is $33.1085. That's respectively 58.37% and/or 51.49% of the 2013-14 salary cap. These 4 or 5 lines will cost more than half the team's payroll next season, without considering payraises for RFAs or UFA additions.

   3) Even with King Lundqvist giving the team a fighting chance to win beyond its deserving, is this a lineup that could snag 4 wins in 7 games against a truly better team? How does this lineup compare to the top 12, top 15 forwards we had in last postseason's 20-game run? I don't think it's a better team, I don't think this is a Cinderella roster that can overtake long battles on away ice.

   4) Derek Stepan has silently become the #2 forward, behind Captain Callahan, in terms of icetime per game, and the premier center at that. He is coming off his entry-level contract, with no arbitration rights, 3 years into his career with a wonderful start. How will his play hold up in the playoffs? Remember, he had 1 goal in 20 games (382 minutes) last postseason. If we're debating contract offers from 1 year - $2.75 mil/year to 5 years - $4.00 mil/year, we should be watching his role performance especially close this campaign.

   5) Carl Hagelin, Mats Zuccarello are restricted free agents as well. Do you open up one of their positions to Chris Kreider next season, or do you bring them back on minimal one-year deals next season? I'd surmise Carl Hagelin worth about $1.75 mil/yr to 1 year, or 1.875 mil/yr to 2 years; Zuccarello harder to guess. I do not know how much his 1-year KHL deal was, since he'd be forgoing the payroll in Russia to play a full season in New York with one-way salary.

   6) Despite his 1st career hat trick last Friday, Brad Richards' struggling season has been a worrisome blunder for Rangers fans to swallow. Fortunately Glen Sather remains armed with one remaining amnesty buyout, and can wait to burn it Summer 2014 if he so chooses. If Richards were in line for the amnesty buyout, one could only imagine Sather having an alternative center on the market to lust after with such a pivotal position being jettisoned from the franchise. I could really see buying out Richards and swooning in for Evgeny Malkin if his contract indeed expires July 1st, 2014. But this offseason, both politically and looking over the center market, I tend to think Richards will remain even with a dreadful postseason next month. 

And here's the back end of our franchise:

[1.3000] Ryan McDonagh** (24) ------------- [3.3250]  Dan Girardi (29)

[3.9750] Marc Staal (26) ------------------------ [1.7000] Anton Stralman (27)

[2.5500] Michael Del Zotto (23) -------------- [0.7500] Steve Eminger* (30)

[0.9650] John Moore (23) ---------------------- [0.6500] Matt Gilroy* (29)

[3.5000] Roman Hamrlik* (39) ---------------- [0.7500]   Stu Bickel   (27)  

[6.8750] Henrik Lundqvist (31)  
[1.3000]  Martin Biron  (36)  

 The single * signifies player will be an unrestricted free agent (UFA) this July 1st

   The double ** signifies player will be a restricted free agent (RFA) this July 1st

Observations

   1) Marc Staal remains out day-to-day with his eye injury, but sounds of progress continue each day. The depth here seems pretty decent, though the left-handed defensemen are notably deeper than the right-handed ones. Perhaps replace Eminger/Gilroy's outgoing contracts for a higher-quality righty-defenseman?
   2) Ryan McDonagh, one of the best Rangers blueline rookie/sophomores in recent memory, is coming of his entry-level contract. One must conclude a long-term deal is coming before McDonagh walks as an unrestricted free agent down the road, but its not a certainty. In any event, would it be best to hold McDonagh to a 1-year, $2.9 mil/year extension, and negotiate a 5-7 year deal in 2014, potentially when an amnesty buyout has been exercised and there's more cap room for $4+ million/year to Ryan? Tough questions.
   3) Could Sather be looking to shop Del Zotto this off-season? When NY traded draft picks for Tim Erixon a few summers ago, everyone thought it was the demise of Del Zotto. Once he was shipped to Columbus last summer after Del Zotto's impressive season/postseason, the McD/Staal/MDZ lefty lineup seemed cement. Now, with the acquisition of 23-year-old John Moore from the Gaborik deal (whom his nearly a third Del Zotto's price and more focused defensively), one might make this guess: Del Zotto traded this summer, and a righty-defenseman signed this offseason whom could delegate Stralman to 3rd pair. McD-Girardi, Staal-X, Moore-Stralman. Between the departures of MDZ, Eminger and Gilroy, it's nearly $4 million.
   4) The lineup is young, but it's pretty much the defensive lineup used in last postseason's Conference Final run. Except they are one year older, which is a good thing when none of the top 6 are above 30 years old.
   5) The top 4 defensive pairing (top 8 defensemen) + the 2 goalies total $23.39 million. That is 36.38% of next season's salary cap.
   6) For payraises and/or replacing outgoing contracts, NY will have 5-12% of the salary cap to work around.

* * *

   Final Thoughts

 
   Henrik Lundqvist gives this team a chance to result in wins they would not otherwise achieve. This team, especially after the 2-1 defeat in Florida in lieu of clinching a playoff berth, does not have champion caliber. It has been remodeled a la the Gaborik trade, and it has some nice players penny-for-penny; it is a downgrade from last year's club. It is going into a tighter salary cap next year, its 2nd year of the much-discussed '3-Year Window'. If anyone on the planet knows the 201-15 Salary Cap figure, whether it be in the fifties, sixties, or seventies, would control prime information an NHL General Manager would kill to know.
   I will say this: if this organization is destined to concert one last prospect/draft pick auction for current, playoff-specialized talent, I can respect it. Lundqvist is 31, and sadly the time is coming where he will not get any better, and only decline with age. I can respect and sympathize with selling Kreider, Miller, McIlrath or any other top prospect, for a Jarome Iginla, Jaromir Jagr or Jay Bouwmeester at next year's deadline.
   A NY Rangers Conference Final would be an amazing repeat to feat this spring, but we'll be rooting for the guys in blue because that's what we do.