Brad Richards, Requiem for a Righty Reargaurd, & Roster Report

   Broadway has set the stage for where they wish to contend the next few seasons: right in the middle of it, downright soon. With the signing of free agent superstar centerman Brad Richards (a contract which will keep him in New York until the age of 40 with a hefty $6.667 million annuity), Glen Sather is concerned with being serious cup contenders well before Brad even reaches 35. The distant cost of having an aged center locked up for such a long stretch of time can only be remedied with the instant positive of becoming stronger down the middle with the stroke of a pen.
   Aside from re-signing forwards Ruslan Fedotenko, Mike Rupp, Dale Weise, & Chad Kolarik; there hasn't been much ink exhausted since the July 1st window opened. The team, including restricted free agents Artem Anisimov, Ryan Callahan, Brandon Dubinsky, Brian Boyle, & Michael Sauer, appears one without much gaping holes remaining between now and October. What are the weak depth-spots? Let's take a look:

      For the sake of argument, let us assume the current RFAs receive a total of $12.75 million to remain contracted with New York for an additional campaign. Yesterday the restricted free agents all filed for salary arbitration (save Artem Anisimov as he does not have arbitration rights yet.) This means NYR can dish out 1-year contracts to a 3rd party's liking, settle on a contract without an arbiter, or simply let the free agent walk if no beneficial settlement can be reached.With some colorful assumptions, here's my guess at how the Rangers depth chart will roughly look:

   Dan Girardi & Michael Sauer remain the only right-handed defensemen on-roster. Added to that, there is basically no addition other than prospect Tim Erixon, as Bryan McCabe & Steve Eminger remain unrestricted free agents. Look for Sather to shell out his remaining cap space on a defenseman, assuming no relevant trades are orchestrated.

The Road to October '11: Removing Redden?

   With the July free agent market only a week away, the sudden inability to buyout the remaining year on captain Chris Drury's contract is something which changes the dynamic of the NY Rangers' offseason. Drury's final contract year has him accounting for $7.05 million of the cap space, or roughly 11% of the 2011-12 salary ceiling of $64 million. The plan to buyout Drury would entail freeing up $3.33 million for '11-'12, but that's no longer an option.

   So what does this mean? Let's evaluate the month-by-month implications of a few things:

   When July 1st comes, before NY can sign any new contracts, there will already be $48.6 million tied up in 8 forwards, 5 defensemen and 2 goalies. Well... considering Drury will be injured & Redden will be re-waived to Hartford, it's really 7 forwards & 4 defensemen. That's 70% of the $70.6 million off-season cap.

xxxxxxxx ----- xxxxxxxx ----- M. Gaborik
xxxxxxxx ----- D. Stepan ----- xxxxxxxxx
W. Wolski - E. Christensen - M. Zuccarello
S. Avery  ------  C. Drury -------- B. Prust

W. Redden --------- M. Staal
R. McDonagh -----  D. Girardi
M. Del Zotto------- xxxxxxxxx

H. Lundqvist
M. Biron

What happens when we sign UFA Brad Richards for $8 million / year? We now have spent $56.6 million, leaving us $13.8 million to sign 4 forwards & 3 defensemen.

Brandon Dubinsky will very likely go to arbitration and receive something in then neighborhood of $3.25 million / 1 year. Ryan Callahan may be extended through negotiation or arbitrate as well, probably for something a tad higher like $3.75 million. That's $7 million for the pair to be retained one more year, before going UFA in summer 2012.

We now have $6.8 million remaining to fill these final gaps:

xxxxxxxx ---- B. Richards ----- M. Gaborik
B. Dubinsky -- D. Stepan ----- R. Callahan
W. Wolski - E. Christensen - M. Zuccarello
S. Avery  ------ xxxxxxxx -------- B. Prust

xxxxxxxxx --------- M. Staal
R. McDonagh -----  D. Girardi
M. Del Zotto------- xxxxxxxxx

H. Lundqvist
M. Biron

Brian Boyle has arbitration rights as well, and should look to be awarded about $2 million / 1 year if he arbitrates. Artem Anisimov does not have arbitration rights, so NYR can hold off on signing him until September if they so choose, which he'd receive roughly $1.75 million in a negotiated deal. Michael Sauer an arbitrate as well, where he'd likely receive something to the tune of $900,000 / 1 year. Additionally we'll assume a 7th defenseman is included for $750,000.

This leaves just $1.4 million remaining to fill the last remaining top-6 forward & top-4 defenseman gaps.

xxxxxxxx ---- B. Richards ----- M. Gaborik
B. Dubinsky -- D. Stepan ----- R. Callahan
W. Wolski --- A. Anisimov - M. Zuccarello
S. Avery  ------ B. Boyle  -------- B. Prust
                      E. Christensen

xxxxxxxxx --------- M. Staal
R. McDonagh -----  D. Girardi
M. Del Zotto ------- M. Sauer
7th Defenseman

H. Lundqvist
M. Biron

What if?... what if we bought out Redden in lieu of Drury? It would free up $4.67 million in cap space this year & $3.17 million the next two years. The downside? It would cost the cap $1.83 million per year for 3 years in which Redden wouldn't have otherwise been contracted. The proposition is that of trading the regular-season cap relief of Redden for 3 years in exchange for 6 years of a small tax to have more off-season cap relief the next 3 years.

What happens if Redden is waived the last week of June, before the buyout window closes?

Suddenly there's a little over $6 million to be spent on the remaining 2 roster gaps. We could go with a cheap winger and pricey market defenseman, or invest in two $3 million free agents. If we think that Dubinksy/Wolski/Avery are our top 3 left wingers, we could not even sign a forward and get a $6 million defenseman. Or, journeyman Vinny Prospal may be re-signed for another year.

Here's a loose example of what we're talking about, and what buying out Redden frees up in patchwork potential: