Does Doan Fit?

    

The universal buzz is unrestricted free agent RW Shane Doan is seeking a 4-year deal with his clubs of interest, one being ours truly. Will he fetch $7.5 million/year for four years? That's the reported asking price. I'd like to do some brainstorming on the aspects of Doan's potential to sign in NY.
  
My last post emphasized a certain restriction of vital action from Rangers GM Glen Sather until the new CBA is put to bed. Quite simply overpaying Doan until the ripe age of 40 with potential no-move clauses is a debatable issue. But if there's some unseen variable yet to be introduced, say a firm direction or amendment to the direction of the salary cap rules we've had since 2005, putting a number on Doan becomes that much more complicated.

   For the sake of argument, let's say we sign Doan for 4-years for the exact same salary cap hit Chris Drury had for his ever popular stint on Broadway: $7.05 million/year with a no-move clause. Additionally, the season starts on-time. Gaborik/Sauer are on long-term injury reserve enough to free up $2.25 million in cap relief, while Michael Del Zotto receives a 2-year, $2.333 million/yr contract. Where do we stand?

   For the upcoming season, the mid-to-high sixty-millions is probably the brink of where payroll wants to be for your top 26 roster spots. The immediate season is (probably) a snug salary cap fit, with a dangerous and dynamic team (probably) in contention for Stanley Promiseland.

   But what happens next year when bluechip youngsters are due raises? Judging by the massive dropoff in payroll from '13-'14 to '14-'15, Stepan/Hagelin/McDonagh could be given 1-year deals following their entry level expiration, only to be given appropriately significant pay raises with longer contracts. There's an entire season yet to be established and/or played, but let's guesstimate what the future contracts of the RFA's could logically be...

Marc Staal's 2nd NHL contract was 5-years, $3.975 mil/yr

Ryan Callahan's 2nd NHL contract was 2-years, $2.300 mil/yr

Artem Anisimov's 2nd NHL contract was 2-years, $1.875 mil/yr

Brandon Dubinsky's 2nd NHL contract 2-years, $1.850 mil/yr

Michael Sauer's 2nd NHL contract was 2-years, $1.250 mil/yr   

   So let's say:

   Del Zotto is given 2-years, $2.333 mil/yr

   McDonagh is given 1-year, $2.333 mil/yr

   Stepan is given 1-year, $2.333 mil/yr

   Hagelin is given 1-year, $1.750 mil/yr

   Now how do we stand?

   Essentially such a method could be done, and the budget could cap out just under $70 million for the next 2 seasons. There would be approximately $40 million available for the summer of 2014, where Sather would could choose which players could be signed long-term and which to trade away for financial reasons. However, to pursue the temporary-contract philosophy in '13-'14, and especially the years afterwards, the salary cup itself must stay at least in the upper sixty-millions.

   Looking below at the final graph of the exercise, we'll lessen Doan's potential deal this summer to $6.333 mil/yr for 4 years. Additionally, the pink salmon colored boxes will represent cost of replacement; a designated amount to spend on re-signing or replacing a player after his contract is expired. We're also designating guesstimates for the cost of Ryan Callahan, Henrik Lundqvist, Dan Girardi and others to stay around the next 5 seasons. (Again, this is not serious data, it is a rough idea as to how Doan's potential addition will effect 'the big picture' later on).

   Even if 2015-2018 is a faraway time to worry about the Rangers roster, it's worth noting it may very well be a far fall from 2013 & 2014. The long-term money tied up in Richards/Nash and potentially Doan are handcuffs for the youngsters getting raises proportional to deal length. '14-'15 will probably be the time where Sather makes hard decisions on whom or whom not to allocate money to. We may be very well stuck with twilighting Doan/Richards eating up a significant chunk of available room. But as for the next 2 seasons, the franchise can be sustained even with a Doan overpayment, and the mercy of a salary cap which doesn't decline until 2014 when tons of money is coming off the books.

NYR August Report: Del Zotto, Doan & Endgame Diagnostics

As the first week of August rolls through, Glen Sather's offseason allocating appears to be complete... or at least as complete as it possibly could be right now. First, let's look at the NYR roster & payroll as of 07/30/

   The only restricted free agent remaining is Michael Del Zotto, coming off his entry-level contract. What does this mean? Unlike Anton Stralman, MDZ cannot file for salary arbitration, and is at the mercy of Glen Sather's best lowball offer. But perhaps more importantly, Glen Sather has all the time in the world to deal with MDZ as well. Why is this relevant? Hint: the 30 NHL General Managers still don't know the exact salary cap ramifications and/or amendments of the upcoming season.

   In other words, the team payroll is $58.5 million (factoring in Chris Drury's $1.67 mil buyout tax). That is probably four-to-ten million under next season's salary cap. But what if there's a 5-year decrease in the cap? What if there's a buyout window and suddenly the free agent pool receives a unique September-boost? Who knows. What we do know is MDZ and his contractual rights will not be going anywhere, and there is no need to actually commit payroll to him until there's more clarity on the NHL's next collective bargaining agreement.

   Does Sather go long-term on Del Zotto? Is it a shorter two-or-three season agreement? As of now Sather is doing the correct thing and waiting for more environmental information before striking a deal with Mikey. The same concept applies to the potential signing of Shane Doan, except Doan is unrestricted and NY must surrender significantly more leverage; If Sather is apt to squeeze the last few contracts under the salary cap for the much anticipated 2013 campaign, it helps to know what said cap is going to be.

   As for Marian Gaborik: two points regarding the upcoming CBA impact on the tides of the NHL...

   1) Gaborik is supposedly not expected before Thanksgiving. That would usually imply a long-term injury for ~25 games, except there's a chance the season could be delayed from stalemated negotiations. So what? If Gaborik is destined for the long-term injured-reserve list, NYR are entitled to cap relief. Problem? We don't know what the new CBA will change with regards to the current LTIR system. If Gabby's $7.5 mil becomes a theoretical $5 mil the summer before the season, it becomes all the more relevant to pricing Shane Doan to a competitive, calculated price.

   2) The departure of Brandon Prust, John Mitchell and Mats Zuccarello, along with the current injury of Marian Gaborik, leaves the RW the most vulnerable of positions heading into October. Lest we forget, Ryan Callahan is no stranger to injury either, whether it be historically or a natural consequence of his high-temp physical style. Shane Doan won't be paid like a 3rd line RW'er, he will be paid like a 1st/2nd line RW'er based on legitimate assumptions that the top 3 RW'ers may never play a single regular season game together. The affects of big change on the right, as well as potential injuries, make the Gaborik/Doan financial deliberation even more keen to the team's forwards

   MDZ's cap hit next season will probably be between two-and-four million/year, which would boost the team payroll to the low sixty-millions. Doan's cap hit next season will probably be between five-and-six million/year, which would take the team's payroll to the mid/high sixty-millions. Gaborik (or even Michael Sauer) placed on LTIR for substantial time could slightly lower the overall payroll a few million.

   As the rules (old or new) are re-established, Sather has at least given himself the opportunity to sculpt the final pieces of his team this August to strategically fit snugly under the cap. The Nash trigger has been pulled, Henrik Lundqvist is (probably) at his athletic prime. The time is now. Glen Sather has positioned this roster as best he can, all that remains is the owners/players endgame and its final ramifications. Win, lose or draw, Sather deserves massive credit for the team's Stanley Cup poise.

July Roundup: NY Rangers Off-Season Evaluation

   Below is the current payroll situation for October 1st, 2011. All of these contracts are real and accurately displayed, not including the small fee from last season's carryover bonus coverage. Though Wade Redden is still on the books, it is assumed he will be re-waived in September for the second consecutive year.

 

   How do we like this concoction of contracts by Glen Sather, and what's left to be desired?

   Let us examine the offense of this bunch, at least on paper. Being as mildly and conservatively cautious as I can, I've crunched some numbers on rough goal-production estimates. Relative to last season, how would these players perform in a vacuum?

The 23 roster players at this point seem to suggest competitive net offensive capabilities, or at least on paper in July...

   Essentially, Sather has added Brad Richards & Mike Rupp in lieu of Vinny Prospal & Derek Boogaard this off-season. Mathematically, the two top lines look capable of producing roughly 60 goals a piece, which suggests the possibility of NY having two #1 lines once again. Overall the 14 forwards designated to pot goals next winter look to be respectable choices with our cumulative estimates.

   As for the defense? I think we've found the softest part of the team. Marc Staal & Dan Girardi are the big-minute, elder-statesmen staples of the structure. However, the bottom 4 slots are entrusted in very, very young hands. Both Michael Sauer & Ryan McDonagh had impressive rookie outings last year, but can they play 20 minutes a night all-season, and be on-deck to fill in any minutes in case one of the top-pair succumb to injury? Michael Del Zotto & Tim Erixon raise increasingly more eyebrows as they are even younger & more unproven. Can these 7 blueliners patrol Qvisty's territory enough to be, say, top-10 defense in the league?

   I think that's the most wait-and-see ingredient in the caliber of contention NY has brewing in next season's stew. Personally, I think McDonagh will turn out to be a solid find, only based on what I've seen, and especially in his playoff debut last April. Del Zotto & Erixon are the black sheep here: MDZ coming off a sorry sophomore slump of a season, while Erixon is all prospect / no prior NHL puck participation.

   If I were a betting man, I'd wager NY looks for a premium right-handed defenseman in total trade talks over the next year. I'd bet that Staal/McD can handle their primetime workload better than Girardi/Sauer can. I'd bet Sather has a list of right-handed defensemen whom are set to become unrestricted free agents next July, and I bet if a team falls out of playoff position with a little bit of time, NY would likely pursue interest in acquiring a seasoned pointman to accompany the youngsters.

Top 10 Righthanded NHL Defensemen scheduled to become UFA on July 1, 2012

Shea Weber (NSH)

Brent Burns (SJS)

Joe Corvo (BOS)

Dennis Wideman (WSH)

Adrian Aucoin (PHO)

Kurtis Foster (ANH)

Radek Martinek (CBJ)

Pavel Kubina* (TBL)

Sami Salo* (VAN

Cory Sarich* (CGY)

* = No-Trade-Clause or No-Movement-Clause

   In conclusion, Glen Sather is going for a cup run, and has crafted his best roster nearly completely, save one more bonafide righty reargaurd. The following 3 seasons ~ which are coincidentally the last 3 contract seasons for Lundqvist, Gaborik & Callahan ~ have committed 100%, 74% & 65% of the team's budget respectively. The Brad Richards signing, the fear of King Henrik turning 30, and the escaping window of having a very young team contracted to cheap contracts, before everyone turns 33 and makes double what they did in their 20's, is what these offseason moves are coming down to.

   It's time to win, it's time to win now. Look for NY to be capable of sending Anisimov or Stepan packing in exchange for older, more immediate talent aimed at playoff pushes. Look for the 2012 & 2013 NHL Entry Draft to be depleted & lacking in picks for Rangerland after they've been hocked for deadline additions & single-playoff upgrades.

   Glen Sather, what has he done, and where will it take us?

Brad Richards, Requiem for a Righty Reargaurd, & Roster Report

   Broadway has set the stage for where they wish to contend the next few seasons: right in the middle of it, downright soon. With the signing of free agent superstar centerman Brad Richards (a contract which will keep him in New York until the age of 40 with a hefty $6.667 million annuity), Glen Sather is concerned with being serious cup contenders well before Brad even reaches 35. The distant cost of having an aged center locked up for such a long stretch of time can only be remedied with the instant positive of becoming stronger down the middle with the stroke of a pen.
   Aside from re-signing forwards Ruslan Fedotenko, Mike Rupp, Dale Weise, & Chad Kolarik; there hasn't been much ink exhausted since the July 1st window opened. The team, including restricted free agents Artem Anisimov, Ryan Callahan, Brandon Dubinsky, Brian Boyle, & Michael Sauer, appears one without much gaping holes remaining between now and October. What are the weak depth-spots? Let's take a look:

      For the sake of argument, let us assume the current RFAs receive a total of $12.75 million to remain contracted with New York for an additional campaign. Yesterday the restricted free agents all filed for salary arbitration (save Artem Anisimov as he does not have arbitration rights yet.) This means NYR can dish out 1-year contracts to a 3rd party's liking, settle on a contract without an arbiter, or simply let the free agent walk if no beneficial settlement can be reached.With some colorful assumptions, here's my guess at how the Rangers depth chart will roughly look:

   Dan Girardi & Michael Sauer remain the only right-handed defensemen on-roster. Added to that, there is basically no addition other than prospect Tim Erixon, as Bryan McCabe & Steve Eminger remain unrestricted free agents. Look for Sather to shell out his remaining cap space on a defenseman, assuming no relevant trades are orchestrated.

The Road to October '11: Removing Redden?

   With the July free agent market only a week away, the sudden inability to buyout the remaining year on captain Chris Drury's contract is something which changes the dynamic of the NY Rangers' offseason. Drury's final contract year has him accounting for $7.05 million of the cap space, or roughly 11% of the 2011-12 salary ceiling of $64 million. The plan to buyout Drury would entail freeing up $3.33 million for '11-'12, but that's no longer an option.

   So what does this mean? Let's evaluate the month-by-month implications of a few things:

   When July 1st comes, before NY can sign any new contracts, there will already be $48.6 million tied up in 8 forwards, 5 defensemen and 2 goalies. Well... considering Drury will be injured & Redden will be re-waived to Hartford, it's really 7 forwards & 4 defensemen. That's 70% of the $70.6 million off-season cap.

xxxxxxxx ----- xxxxxxxx ----- M. Gaborik
xxxxxxxx ----- D. Stepan ----- xxxxxxxxx
W. Wolski - E. Christensen - M. Zuccarello
S. Avery  ------  C. Drury -------- B. Prust

W. Redden --------- M. Staal
R. McDonagh -----  D. Girardi
M. Del Zotto------- xxxxxxxxx

H. Lundqvist
M. Biron

What happens when we sign UFA Brad Richards for $8 million / year? We now have spent $56.6 million, leaving us $13.8 million to sign 4 forwards & 3 defensemen.

Brandon Dubinsky will very likely go to arbitration and receive something in then neighborhood of $3.25 million / 1 year. Ryan Callahan may be extended through negotiation or arbitrate as well, probably for something a tad higher like $3.75 million. That's $7 million for the pair to be retained one more year, before going UFA in summer 2012.

We now have $6.8 million remaining to fill these final gaps:

xxxxxxxx ---- B. Richards ----- M. Gaborik
B. Dubinsky -- D. Stepan ----- R. Callahan
W. Wolski - E. Christensen - M. Zuccarello
S. Avery  ------ xxxxxxxx -------- B. Prust

xxxxxxxxx --------- M. Staal
R. McDonagh -----  D. Girardi
M. Del Zotto------- xxxxxxxxx

H. Lundqvist
M. Biron

Brian Boyle has arbitration rights as well, and should look to be awarded about $2 million / 1 year if he arbitrates. Artem Anisimov does not have arbitration rights, so NYR can hold off on signing him until September if they so choose, which he'd receive roughly $1.75 million in a negotiated deal. Michael Sauer an arbitrate as well, where he'd likely receive something to the tune of $900,000 / 1 year. Additionally we'll assume a 7th defenseman is included for $750,000.

This leaves just $1.4 million remaining to fill the last remaining top-6 forward & top-4 defenseman gaps.

xxxxxxxx ---- B. Richards ----- M. Gaborik
B. Dubinsky -- D. Stepan ----- R. Callahan
W. Wolski --- A. Anisimov - M. Zuccarello
S. Avery  ------ B. Boyle  -------- B. Prust
                      E. Christensen

xxxxxxxxx --------- M. Staal
R. McDonagh -----  D. Girardi
M. Del Zotto ------- M. Sauer
7th Defenseman

H. Lundqvist
M. Biron

What if?... what if we bought out Redden in lieu of Drury? It would free up $4.67 million in cap space this year & $3.17 million the next two years. The downside? It would cost the cap $1.83 million per year for 3 years in which Redden wouldn't have otherwise been contracted. The proposition is that of trading the regular-season cap relief of Redden for 3 years in exchange for 6 years of a small tax to have more off-season cap relief the next 3 years.

What happens if Redden is waived the last week of June, before the buyout window closes?

Suddenly there's a little over $6 million to be spent on the remaining 2 roster gaps. We could go with a cheap winger and pricey market defenseman, or invest in two $3 million free agents. If we think that Dubinksy/Wolski/Avery are our top 3 left wingers, we could not even sign a forward and get a $6 million defenseman. Or, journeyman Vinny Prospal may be re-signed for another year.

Here's a loose example of what we're talking about, and what buying out Redden frees up in patchwork potential: