2013-2014 NY Rangers Roster Prediction

   Namem Kadri's 2-year $2.9 million/year deal strikes as a relevant comparable for Rangers restricted free agent C Derek Stepan. Granted, Stepan is likely the better player with better data to suggest a better deal, but within Kadri's ballpark no doubt. This blog's prediction of 1-year $2.85 million or 2-years $3.00 million/year remains steadfast. If we assume Stepan's holdout can earn him a tad more than that, say $3.05 million/year, then allow us to present our projection for NY's opening-season roster.

   For simplicity, we will assume neither Callahan or Hagelin is placed on Long-Term Injured Reserve, and shall not earn NY any cap relief, but will in turn be available to play at any point in October; LTIR would forbid wither player from lacing up prior to Game 11 (October 28 vs MTL). They very well could, especially since neither is expected to healthily make the Season Opener, in which case more salary room would be available than what is displayed below:

Hagelin (2.25) ------ Stepan (3.05) -------- Nash (7.80)
Zuccarello (1.15) - Brassard (3.20) --- Callahan (4.28)
Pouliot (1.30) ----- Richards (6.67) ----- Kreider (1.33)
Boyle (1.70) ------ D. Moore (1.00) ----- Dorsett (1.63)
Haley (0.60) ------- Lindberg (0.76) - Mashinter (0.60)

McDonagh (4.70) --- Girardi (3.33)
Staal (3.98) --------- Stralman (1.70)
Del Zotto (2.55) --- J. Moore (0.97)
Falk (0.98) ---------- Johnson (0.60)

Lundqvist (6.88)
Biron (1.30)

Buried:
Asham (0.08)
Powe (0.14)
Pyatt (0.63)

Cap Space: $15,833

Excluding Del Zotto...

Assuming 1) Stepan is re-signed for $4 million/year & 2) Del Zotto is traded away...

Hagelin -- Stepan -- Nash

Kreider - Richards - Callahan

Pouliot - Brassard - Zuccarello

Boyle -- D. Moore -- Dorsett

Pyatt -- Mashinter - Haley

Buried: (Powe + Asham)

McDonagh - Girardi

Staal ----- Stralman

Falk ------ J. Moore

Syrvet -- A. Johnson

Lundqvist

Biron

Total Cap Hit: $64.263 million

Avbl Cap Space: $0.037 million

* This is enough room for 2 replacement forwards for Cally/Hagelin to start the season with 3 minimum-wage contracts on top of that. Should NY remain under the salary cap & remain healthy, bigger call-up contracts like Miller or Kristo (2x minimum wage) could be called up in lieu of more bodies/less cap hit. In other words, if the team escapes injury come October except for Cally/Hags, you could replace Mashinter+Haley for Miller, or Syrvet+Johnson for Kristo, etc

* Contracts like Boyle or Pyatt, while more expendable pieces than Del Zotto, remain with significantly less trade value. In other words I would rather dump Boyle or Pyatt than Del Zotto, but as far as marketable trade value they are 'less tradable.'

* We've also seen GM Glen Sather historically find unemployed defenseman in late September in hopes of signing them to cheap 23rd-hour 1-year deals (Alex Semenov, Anton Stralman). Should LD Ron Hainsey, for example, remain a free agent come October 1st, what would his 1-yr contract look like? And how much would something like this further induce Sather to trade away Del Zotto?

Zuccarello Arbitration, Derek Stepan, & August Ponderings

   Mats Zuccarello's salary arbitration date has been set for Wednesday July 31st. Under the old CBA, if a player filed for arbitration and won more than $1.05 million/year, the team HAD to sign them to the arbiter's deal. However, under the new CBA, that amount has been raised to $3.50 million, which Zucc is sure to receive less than. In other words, unless Glen Sather can sign Zucc to a contract prior to the arbitration date, NY will take on whatever cap hit is decided. 

   This means, starting August 1, and barring any trades or relevant free gency signings... Glen Sather will have only C Derek Stepan (whom is coming off his entry-level contract and has no arbitration rights) to re-sign. In other words, all the other puzzle pieces save Stepan will be transparent by July 31st at the latest, and Sather's task of arranging 24 or 25 of them under the $64.3 million salary cap will be the writing on the Wall Street.

   We know Carl Hagelin & Ryan Callahan will be injured to start the NHL regular season in October. What we don't know is when they're expected to return, or if Glen Sather intends to put them on Long-Term Injured Reserve to receive cap relief. What we do know, however, is their will need to be, at a bare minimum, 22 roster spots under the cap by the season opener. More conservatively, hedging against potential injuries in training camp/preseason, it's an appropriate exercise to expect to fit 24 or 25 players under the cap.

   Let's look at the current Top 24 roster spots (2G-8D-14). Cap hits are including contract bonuses, numbers are player's salary cap hit in ($ millions):

Hagelin (2.250) ---- Stepan (?.???) ----- Nash (7.800)

Kreider (1.325) --- Richards (6.667) - Callahan (4.275)

Zuccarello (?.???) -- Brassard (3.200) -- Boyle (1.7000)

Pouliot (1.300)  --- D. Moore (1.000) - Dorsett (1.633)

McDonagh (4.700) - Girardi (3.325)

Staal (3.975) ---- Stralman (1.700)

Del Zotto (2.550) - J. Moore (0.965)

Lundqvist (6.875) / Biron (1.300)

Extra Skaters (Taxi Squad) :

F Haley (0.600)

F Pyatt (1.550)

LD Falk (0.917)

LD A. Johnson (0.600)

Buried Forwards Cap Hit: Asham + Powe (0.217)

'13-'14 CAP HIT:::::: $60,482,000

'13-'14 CAP SPACE : $3,818,000

   Unfortunately for NY, Zuccarello will probably, with a rough guesstimate, receive $1.5+ million on a 1-year deal. Stepan, unless negotiations turn into a stalemate contract holdout, will probably receive $3+ million/year. With those predictions, Glen Sather needs a minimum of $4.5 million in cap space to retain Zucc & Stepan within the next 12 weeks.

   Mind you, the possibility of Hagelin and/or Callahan being placed on Long Term Injured Reserve exists. The team could very well be receiving LTIR cap credit  to begin the season. HERE is a great article by HockeyRodent explaining LTIR. But for the sake of this exercise we will assume the cap is $64.3 million with no LTIR placement.

   Under this projection, there is only $3.8 million. These findings would lead one to believe Sather will probably have a $700,000 MINIMUM payroll crunch. If Sather wishes to lock Stepan with a long-term deal, it'll be even more. Let's ponder some options for making some room for Zucc + Stepan while keeping the roster count at 24 players:

* Trading LD Michael Del Zotto for draft pick(s) or prospect(s), and recalling AHL'er LD Danny Syrvet (0.5875), would reduce this payroll by $1.9625 million. Pairs would then be McDonagh-Girardi, Staal-Stralman, Falk-Moore, Syrvet-Johnson

* Trading away Boyle and promoting AHL prospect C Oscar Lindbergh (0.760) as a fill-in forward, would reduce this payroll by $940,000. 

* Trading away Boyle, and not burying Powe, would reduce this payroll by ~$750,000

* Trading away Dorsett, and not burying Asham, would reduce this payroll by ~$700,000

* Trading away Boyle and promoting AHL prospect W Jasper Fasth (0.900) a spot on 3rd line wing, would reduce this payroll by $600,000. 

* Fasth beating out Kreider for roster spit would reduce this payroll by ~$425,000. 

* J.T. Miller (1.2442) beating out Kreider for roster spot would reduce this payroll by ~ $80,000. 

* W Danny Kristo (1.300) beating out Kreider for roster spot would reduce this payroll by ~ $25,000.

*   *   *   *   *   *   *   *

   I would surmise Stepan's contract value, depending on contract length, would be something very similar to Ryan McDonagh's ultimate price range:

2 years - $3.000 million/yr

3 years - $3.333 million/yr

4 years - $3.700 million/yr

5 years - $4.100 milion/yr

6 years - $4.667 million/yr

*   *   *   *   *   *   *   *

   Keep in mind, as well, NY has a secondary buyout window in August because at least one player filed for arbitration. Trades, buyouts, contract burials, or additional free agent signings remain a possibility... or perhaps probability... to go down this August. Someone get me some popcorn.

Putting The Pieces Together: No Room for Zucc, Del Zotto?

Current look at NY Rangers roster:

Hagelin (2.250) - Stepan (?.???) - Nash (7.800)

Kreider (1.325) - Brassard (3.200) - Callahan (4.275)

Pouliot (1.300) - Richards (6.667) - Boyle (1.700)

Pyatt (1.550) - D. Moore (1.000) - Dorsett (1.633)

Haley (0.600) - Powe (1.067) - Asham (1.000)

McDonagh (4.700) - Girardi (3.325)

Staal (3.975) - Stralman (1.700)

J. Moore (0.965) - Del Zotto (2.550)

Falk (?.???) - A. Johnson (0.600)

Lundqvist (6.875)

Biron (1.300)

TOTAL: $61.358 million (just under $3 million cap room to sign Stepan & Falk)

*Let's assume Falk signs for a hair more than his qualifying offer, for a cap hit of $866,667/year

Now that makes the payroll $62.225 million, with only Stepan left unsigned. Unfortunately, $2.075 million/year is still not enough cap space to retain Stepan, even to a 1 or 2 year "bridge" contract.

** Let's assume Michael Del Zotto is traded for picks/prospects, and newly-acquired LD Danny Syrvet (with a cap hit of $587,500) is called up from Hartford. Now the roster would look like:

Hagelin (2.250) - Stepan (?.???) - Nash (7.800)

Kreider (1.325) - Brassard (3.200) - Callahan (4.275)

Pouliot (1.300) - Richards (6.667) - Boyle (1.700)

Pyatt (1.550) - D. Moore (1.000) - Dorsett (1.633)

Haley (0.600) - Powe (1.067) - Asham (1.000)

McDonagh (4.700) - Girardi (3.325)

Staal (3.975) - Stralman (1.700)

J. Moore (0.965) - Falk (0.867)

Syrvet (0.588) - A. Johnson (0.600)

Lundqvist (6.875)

Biron (1.300)

*** Now with this roster, a total payroll of $60.275, NY has slightly over $4 million to spend on Stepan's new contract without going over the salary cap.

Hagelin (2.250) - Stepan*(4.000) - Nash (7.800)

Kreider (1.325) - Brassard (3.200) - Callahan (4.275)

Pouliot (1.300) - Richards (6.667) - Boyle (1.700)

Pyatt (1.550) - D. Moore (1.000) - Dorsett (1.633)

Haley (0.600) - Powe (1.067) - Asham (1.000)

McDonagh (4.700) - Girardi (3.325)

Staal (3.975) - Stralman (1.700)

J. Moore (0.965) - Falk*(0.867)

Syrvet (0.588) - A. Johnson (0.600)

Lundqvist (6.875)

Biron (1.300)

TOTAL PAYROLL: $64.26 million (~$40,000 below salary cap)

Asham & Powe Waived; Del Zotto & Kreider Future?; Tom Gilbert to Sweeten the RD Market

   NY Rangers have placed 4th liners W Arron Asham & C Darrel Powe on waivers today. Is this a harbinger of Sather's intention to NOT include them in next season's top-25 roster spots? Let's take yet another slightly-revised look at NY's salary cap situation should this be the case:

Hagelin*(1.8000) ----- Stepan*(3.2500) - Callahan (4.2750)

Kreider (1.3250) ----- Richards (6.6667) ----- Nash (7.8000)

Zuccarello*(1.8000) - Brassard (3.2000) -- Dorsett (1.6333)

Haley (0.6000) --------- Boyle (1.7000) ------ Pyatt (1.5500)

XXXXXXXXXX ---- XXXXXXXXXX --- XXXXXXXXXX

McDonagh*(4.0000) -- Girardi (3.3250)

Staal (3.9750) --------- Stralman (1.7000)

Del Zotto (2.5500) --- XXXXXXXXXXX

Moore (0.9650) ------- XXXXXXXXXXX

Lundqvist (6.8750) / Biron (1.3000)

TOTAL PAYROLL ABOVE: $60.3 Million

(leaving $4 million in cap space for bottom 4-5 [call-up] roster spots)

AHL Candidates:

LD --- Connor Allen -------- (1.7750)

RW -- Danny Kristo -------- (1.3000)

RD -- Dylan McIlrath ------ (1.2950)

 F ---- J.T. Miller ----------- (1.2442)

 C --- Darrel Powe ---------- (1.0667) [Waived 07/04/13]

 W --- Arron Asham -------- (1.0000) [Waived 07/04/13]

 F ---- Kyle Jean ------------ (0.9250)

 F ---- Josh Nicholls -------- (0.9250)

 F ---- Ryan Bourque ------- (0.9000)

W ---- Jesper Fasth --------- (0.9000)

LD --- Justin Falk ----------*(0.8875) [RFA]

 C ---- Michael St. Croix --- (0.8700)

W ---- Andrew Yogan ------ (0.8000)

 F ---- Oscar Lindberg ------ (0.7600)

RD -- Stu Bickel ------------- (0.7500)

W ---- Marek Hrivik -------- (0.6850)

RD -- Sam Noreau ---------- (0.6450)

RD -- Tommy Hughes ------ (0.6083)

 F ---- Brandon Mashinter -*(0.6050) [RFA]

 F ---- Jason Wilson --------- (0.5883)

LD --- Danny Syrvet -------- (0.5875)

 F ---- Michael Kantor ------ (0.5833)

* = Hypothetical contract with guesstimated cap hit

*   *   *   *   *

   Minnesota Wild have exercised an amnesty buyout on RD Tom Gilbert. Gilbert is 30 years old and capable of playing 20+ minutes per game, making him one of the top-tier right-handed defensemen hitting the open market tomorrow. Others include Ian White, Marek Zidlicky, Joe Corvo & Ryan O'Byrne. Perhaps available at the post-buyout discount era of Gilbert's career, it would not be surprising to see GM Glen Sather make a pitch for Gilbert. Girardi & Stralman remain the only two righties capable of playing big minutes. Stu Bickel, Dylan McIlrath, Sam Noreau and/or Tommy Hughes represent minor league righthanded-defensemen under contract, should the 3rd pair vacancy be (unlikely) awarded to an in-house righty pointman.

   The additions of low-cap hit, left-handed defensemen Justin Falk & Danny Syrvet continue to poke a curious preponderance of Michael Del Zotto's future as a NY Ranger. The trade for NCAA scoring leader RW Danny Kristo can only provide more secondguessing as to W Chris Kreider's certainty of a roster spot this October as well.

   Unrestricted free agency begins within 24 hours. Let the chaos begin.

Glen Sather Looks Poised To Make Yet Another Important Summer Trade

   With the acquisition of left-handed defenseman Justin Falk from the Minnesota Wild (in exchange for AHL'er F Ben Ferriero & a 6th Round draft pick)... let's look at the top 25 roster spots relative to next year's salary cap. For the sake of example, we will assume RFAs & UFA Steve Eminger will all re-sign to 2-year contracts extensions.

Hagelin (1.875)*------ Stepan (3.300)*-------- Nash (7.800)

Kreider (1.325) ------ Brassard (3.200) --- Callahan (4.275)

Zuccarello (1.875)*-- Richards (6.667) ----- Dorsett (1.633)

Pyatt (1.550) ----------- Boyle (1.700) ------- Asham (1.000)

Haley (0.600) ---------- Powe (1.067) ----- Newbury (0.600)

McDonagh (3.333)*------- Girardi (3.325)

Staal (3.975) ------------- Stralman (1.700)

Del Zotto (2.550) -------- Eminger*(0.925)

Moore (0.965) / Falk (0.875)*

Lundqvist (6.875) / Biron (1.300)

* LD Ryan McDonagh re-signs 2-year, $3.333 million/yr contract

* C Derek Stepan re-signs 2-year, $3.300 million/yr contract

* W Carl Hagelin re-signs 2-year, $1.875 million/yr contract

* W Mats Zuccarello re-signs 2-year, $1.875 million/yr contract

* RD Steve Eminger re-signs 2-year, $0.925 million/yr contract

* LD Justin Falk signs 2-year, $0.875 million/yr contract

TOTAL: $64.29 million on top 25 roster spots [15F+8D+2G]

$10,000 below Salary Cap

AHL Forwards: 

JT Miller, J Fasth, O Lindberg, R Bourque, C Thomas, B Mashinter, M St. Croix, J Nicholls, M Hrivik, N Palmieri, K Jean, A Yogan, M Kantor, J Wilson

AHL Defensemen:

LD C Allen, RD D McIlrath, RD S Noreau, LD T Hughes, LD J Niemi

AHL Goalies:

C Talbot

   Well, it would appear Glen Sather has left himself little room to utilize the 2013 free agent market. This assortment of 25 roster players just squeezes roughly $10,000 below the salary cap, if all 25 players were to be on-roster for the entire season with nobody placed on long-term injured reserve. This roster situation leads the outside eye to conclude a few thoughts...

   1) Come October, is NYR General Manager Glen Sather truly comfortable with the team remaining largely unchanged from now? If so, and perhaps the retention of C Brad Richards from amnesty buyout suggests this as well, Sather may be confident enough in a coaching regime revolution to leave the young roster largely alone this off-season. It may be a case of keeping last year's playoff roster largely intact, with the intent of more trade deadline moves to alter/improve the roster down the final stretch of the 2013-14 regular season. This would mean a very boring off-season for NY Rangers fans. 

   2) Is Glen Sather planning on improving the roster via trade? Since there looks like very little cap space to add any free agents of impact, and will not exercise his final amnesty buyout this summer, change via trade is the only other alternative. Purely on speculation, acquiring yet another left-handed defenseman in Falk may suggest a preface before some sort of transaction with another club. Mind you, all top-8 defensemen listed above must pass through waivers next season if demoted to the AHL. Of the 5 left-handed defensemen to be traded, don't be surprised to see Michael Del Zotto get shipped off, perhaps for a forward with similar salary ($2.55 mil/yr) and 1 or 2 years left on his contract.

   3) What are the 2014-15 ramifications of this roster? One year from now, NY will have many decisions to make as a plethora of significant contracts expire. For the sake of example, let's assume  the salary cap rises to an even $65 million for 2014-15. How does the current top-25 look?

2014 Off-Season

Hagelin (1.875)*------ Stepan (3.300)*-------- Nash (7.800)

Kreider (RFA) -------- Brassard (RFA) ----- Callahan (UFA)

Zuccarello (1.875)*-- Richards?(6.667) ----- Dorsett (1.633)

Pyatt (UFA) ----------- Boyle (UFA) ------- Asham (UFA)

Haley (UFA) ---------- Powe (UFA) ----- Newbury (UFA)

McDonagh (3.333)*------- Girardi (UFA)

Staal (3.975) ------------- Stralman (UFA)

Del Zotto (RFA) -------- Eminger*(0.925)

Moore (RFA) / Falk (0.875)*

Lundqvist (UFA) / Biron (UFA)

   Yikes, that $32.26 million (49.6% of Salary Cap) tied up in 6 forwards, 4 defensemen & no goalies. It leaves, for the sake of this example, $32.74 million to spend on 9 forwards, 4 defensemen & 2 goalies within the guesstimated '13-'14 salary cap. However, keeping in mind next June is the final window of potential amnesty buyouts, we will assume C Brad Richards is amnestied in June 2014. Now there's approximately $25.6 million to spend on 10 forwards, 4 defensemen, & 2 goalies. 

Estimated Contract Value in Summer 2014

UFA - H. Lundqvist -------------------- $8.333 million/year

UFA - R. Callahan --------------------- $4.333 million/year

UFA - D. Girardi ----------------------- $4.000 million/year

RFA - D. Brassard --------------------- $3.667 million/year

RFA - M. Del Zotto -------------------- $2.800 million/year

UFA - 3rd Line Center ----------------- $2.750 million/year

UFA - A. Stralman --------------------- $2.400 million/year

RFA - C. Kreider ----------------------- $1.667 million/year

UFA - B. Boyle/4th Line Center ------ $1.750 million/year

RFA - J. Moore ------------------------- $1.000 million/year

UFA - M Biron/Backup Goalie ------- $0.800 million/year

UFA - A. Asham/4th Line Wing ------ $0.750 million/year

UFA - T. Pyatt/4th Line Wing -------- $0.750 million/year

UFA - M. Haley/4th Line Wing ------ $0.750 million/year

UFA - D. Powe/4th Line Center ------ $0.750 million/year

UFA - K. Newbury/4th Line Wing --- $0.750 million/year

+==========================================

10 Forwards + 4 Defensemen + 2 Goalies = $37.25 million

   Unfortunately, based on a very speculative guesstimation on the players' respective contract values for next summer, it's highly unlikely everyone important can be retained, even if that was Sather's hypothetical plan or desire. By my arithmetic, NY would need a salary cap of $76.67 million to retain this summer's top-25 roster spots next summer. Although, granted, a salary cap spike into the early $70 millions in 2014-15 is not out of the question at all.

   In other words, yet another Glen Sather trade of great importance is almost certainly bound to happen in the next calendar year. Unless the NY Rangers are confident in the current top-25 roster spots, one would think a trade this summer is probable, and a trade before July 1st, 2014 is a near lock to happen.

   Finally, with the 2013 NHL Entry Draft wrapping up Sunday, let's look at the 2014 & 2015 Draft picks NY Rangers currently have, which can obviously be used as currency in potential future trades:

2014 NHL Entry Draft Picks Held By NY Rangers

1st Round Pick    

2nd Round Pick*    

3rd Round Pick

4th Round Pick

5th Round Pick**

5th Round Pick***

6th Round Pick

7th Round Pick****

2015 NHL Entry Draft Picks Held By NY Rangers

1st Round Pick

2nd Round Pick

3rd Round Pick

4th Round Pick

5th Round Pick

5th Round Pick

6th Round Pick

7th Round Pick

* (to be sent to San Jose should F Ryan Clowe re-sign in NY this summer)

** (to be sent to San Jose should F Ryan Clowe NOT re-sign in NY)

*** (Florida Panther's Pick acquired in 2012 Casey Wellman trade)

****(to be sent to San Jose contingent upon an unknown condition)

  

Rangers Salary Cap Situation Heading Into Draft, UFA Market

With recent light of NY Rangers intent on remaining with Richards for at least one more season, here's a look at salary cap expectations at the current roster situation:

Hagelin*----------- Stepan*---------- Nash
Kreider ---------- Brassard ------ Callahan
Zuccarello*------ Richards ------- Dorsett
Pyatt ----------- Boyle/Powe ------- Asham

McDonagh*- Girardi
Staal --------- Stralman
Del Zotto - Moore/Eminger*

Lundqvist/Biron

This lineup of 22 roster players would hypothetically cost $61.3 million, which would be $3 million below the 2014 salary cap. However, with Callahan & Hagelin already presumed injured for the beginning of next season, it will be prudent to leave cap room for as many as 25 or 26 skaters come October.

*McDonagh: Estimating new $4 million/year contract
*Stepan: Estimating new $3.325 million/year contract
*Zuccarello: Estimating new $1.8 million/year contract
*Hagelin: Estimating new $1.8 million/year contract
*Eminger: Estimating new $900,000/year contract

Here is a list of NHL forwards set to become unrestricted free agents on July 5th, sorted by their average icetime-per-game last season (from CapGeek):

Here is a list of NHL defensemen set to become unrestricted free agents on July 5th, sorted by their average icetime-per-game last season (from CapGeek):