NY Rangers Notes - Wed 10/22/14

- The oldest player on the team is playing the most minutes. Martin St. Louis, who turns 40 years old next June, is leading all NY Rangers forwards in icetime per game (18:31). Behind Nash, MSL is quietly also enjoying a great start to the 2014-15 season. He is tied with Kreider for 2nd on the team in points (1-5-6), tied with Nash for 1st in plus/minus (+6). 

- Kevin Hayes, who got his 1st career assist last night in the 4-3 overtime win against the Devils, is now dead-last in the NHL in faceoff win % (among those to take 10+ faceoffs). He is 15-46 (24.6%).

- Chris Kreider continues to be a young man with tremendous upside. Behind Nash, and tied with MSL, Kreider is 2nd on the team in points (2-4-6), but has taken 9 minor penalties in 7 games. Kreider turns 24 years old in April. What a nifty game-winning pass to Klein last night in overtime... Remember when Kreider was riding pine in tight 3rd periods/overtimes last regular season? Good news: The Kreider Project is progressing.

- The NY Rangers lead the NHL in takeaways (57). NYR are also 24th in faceoff win % (47.8), 24th in Power Play % (10.0%), 20th in Penalty Kill % (78.6%), tied for 13th in Goals-For-Per-Game (2.86), and 23rd in Goals-Against-Per-Game (3.29).

- Duclair sat out his 2nd consecutive game, as the Rangers have outscored their opponent 8-3 in those 2 games. With Chris Mueller's impressive early performance, and Dominic Moore seemingly set up to play 3rd line minutes until Stepan returns, does this edge out Duclair's chances at a full NHL season? Or is it looking like he will be returned to his junior team (Quebec Remparts - QMJHL)? If Duclair played center, we wouldn't be having this conversation. Yet NY has a plethora of wingers, and Duclair's NYR residency is uncertain, or at least at this time.

- With Henrik Lundqvist's 4-0 shutout last Sunday, he surpassed Eddie Giacomin's NYR record of 9 straight seasons with a shutout, cementing a shutout for the 10th consecutive year. Since allowing 14 goals on 76 shots to begin the season, Lundqvist has stopped 90 of 94 since (.957 SV%) his last 3 games (3-0-0). 

- Rick Nash is the hottest goal-scorer in the NHL thusfar. In fact, not only is he leading all NHL players in goals scored, but this is the fastest year Rick Nash has accrued 8 goals. His previous record was 8 goals scored in his first 9 games for the Blue Jackets in 2007-08 season. Nash has scored a goal, or game-winning shootout goal, in all 7 of NYR's game so far this season. 

Nash 8 Goals first 9 GP in 07-08

Nash 6 Goals first 9 GP in 09-10

Nash 8 Goals first 7 GP in 14-15

- For the 2nd consecutive game, Matt Hunwick played more minutes per game than John Moore, and looked competent in doing so. With Mike Kostka rightfully in the doghouse, the spot of 7th defenseman (as Dan Boyle remains injured until November) is Hunwick's to lose at this point. While playing almost exclusively even-strength minutes, if Hunwick continues his play, he could be the club's best bargain at 1-year $600,000 in contract salary.

- MSL is leading forwards in icetime at 18:31/game. Last regular season, the highest icetime-per-game by a forward was Brad Richards at 18:41/game. Vigneault continues to roll lines and spread out his forwards' icetime. Before the AV administration, the NY Rangers hadn't gone a season with a forward averaging under 20 minutes/game since the 1999-2000 (Muckler/Tortorella) season. Speedy wingers & fresh legs remain a signature advantage for this team, at least up front. However on the back end, McDonagh & Girardi are both averaging over 29 shifts per game. McDonagh ranks 10th in icetime/game in the NHL (25:36) & Girardi ranks 27th (23:31). Can we expect the team's top pair to play these minutes another 75 games, only to raise expectations for additional 4-28 playoff games? And people are talking about Marc Staal as if he's expendable? Go figure

NY Rangers Salary Set-Up: The Miller Effect, Joe Thornton?, Any Room for Another UFA?

   After securing veteran right-handed defenseman, and historical San Jose power play quarterback Dan Boyle, to a very reasonable 2-year $9 million contract, the NY Rangers now appear to be revealing their new roster shape and design slated for next October. Dominic Moore was re-signed to a 2-year $3 million dollar deal, another bang-for-your-buck free agency signing. I'm not terribly hot on Tanner Glass, but hey, he's a cheaper replacement for 4th line wing than Derek Dorsett, so lest we complain too much...

   NY now has 4 relevant Restricted Free Agents remaining to be signed... 3 of which have filed for salary arbitration; Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello, and Derrick Brassard. All 3 of which, by the way, are coming off breakout seasons, and will receive considerably bigger contracts than any of them would have received last summer. The 4th RFA, whom does not have recourse of salary arbitration, is left-handed young defenseman John Moore, whom also earned his pay last season.

   There are rumblings of a Joe Thornton trade (involving Marc Staal, Jesper Fast, and picks/prospects) in the mix, but most fans know better than to take an internet trade rumor at face value. It would make sense, in theory, for NY to acquire one more center this summer, as the center position is the least 'deep' position New York currently retains on its roster. If not Thornton, one would imagine Glen Sather would at least be probing the agents of unrestricted free agents Mike Ribiero, Steve Ott, and Derek Roy. If only for tire-kicking posture and nothing else.

   However, since 2005, the NHL and its business transactions (or there lack of) are governed by a hard salary cap... which was recently announced to be $69 million for the 2014-15 season. And that's the rub.

   How much money does Sather have to retain Kreider, J. Moore, Zucc, and Brassard? And how much money will be left for one last free agent pickup after that foursome is finagled? Hmmm... and that's the rub.

   Well... in the interest of an example... let's say Glen Sather signs the 4 RFA's to 1-year deals. Ideologically a 1-year deal for each of these players would be a lower cap hit than 2-years, which would be a lower cap hit than 3-years, and so forth. I understand 1-year deals for Zuccarello and Brassard would have perhaps a costly consequence next summer, as both would be unrestricted free agents July 1, 2015, and perhaps would cost even more to retain them past that point. I understand there is merit to giving J. Moore a 2-year bridge deal, as what was done for Derek Stepan and Carl Hagelin last summer. I understand giving Kreider a 5 or 6 year deal could be a wise investment for the future, as what was done with Ryan McDonagh last summer.

   I understand all of this; and I would be shocked if indeed all 4 RFA's were given 1 year contracts this summer. I'm not advocating it, I'm not defending it... I'm hypothetically illustrating it to see how much Sather could jam into the 2014-15 roster, regardless of its (negative) effect come 2016, 2017 and 2018. Let's get started shall we?

   Chris Kreider is an interesting case. He has been a valuable, relevant producer in the 3 postseasons he's played for Broadway. Despite never scoring a regular-season game winning goal in his career, Kreider is one of only 3 NHL players to have scored a game-winning-goal in each of the past 3 postseasons (along with Anze Kopitar and Alex Steen). It's difficult to speculate what an arbiter would award Kreider on a 1-year contract. I would suspect Kreider would sign a 2-year deal for roughly $2.5 million/year (which is more than what Hagelin got but less than Stepan). So... a 1-year deal, perhaps an even $2 million? I'll stick with that, though it's a generously low prediction.

   Mats Zuccarello would have to receive at least $4 million on a 1-year arbitration decision.

   As a comparable parallel, please recall Nik Zherdev's lone season in New York in 2008-2009. Nik scored 23-35-58 in 82 games, before being relegated to 3rd line and going scoreless in the 7-game heartbreak series to the Washington Capitals. The following August, Zherdev was awarded 1-year, $3.9 million in salary arbitration, which the New York Rangers declined. 

   Zuccarello, this past season, went 19-40-59 in 77 games. That's 1 more point than Zherdev in 5 less games. And of course, Zuccarello had a wonderful post-season, scoring 13 points in 25 games, as well as playing the most of any forward in a handful of Conference Final & Cup Final games.

   Thus... if Zherdev got $3.9, Zuccarello would have to get a little more, at the very least. $4 million, again perhaps a conservative estimate, will be my guess for this exercise.

   Derek Brassard is a center, and the historical trend has been a B+ center tends to rival the paycheck of most A- wingers. His qualifying offer was $3.7 million, which is certainly a reasonable figure to give him in a 1-year deal. Brassard averaged 0.56 points per game last season, which is precisely his average points-per-game over the course of his 7-year career. It wouldn't be absurd for Brassard to be awarded as much as Zuccarello in a 2014 salary arbitration, but we'll make it a tad less. Let's say 1-year $3.88 million.

   And finally, without the right of recourse of arbitration, we have John Moore. Moore can be offer sheeted, but otherwise is at the mercy of Glen Sather. Recall the contract holdouts of Brandon Dubinsky and Derek Stepan in years past... I'm not sure Moore has the goods to balk in the face of a holdout, but one never knows. What's a reasonable offer for both sides? Let's say $1.333 million for 1-year, since a 2-year $1.5 million/year contract would seem to sound accurate.

   So to review, in this hypothetical, we've re-signed...

   Chris Kreider ---------- $2.000

   Mats Zuccarello ------ $4.000

   Derick Brassard ------ $3.880

   John Moore ----------- $1.333

   + ======================

                                        $11.213 million

   Let's check out the CapGeek roster with these hypothetical contracts signed...

   This leaves only one or two roster spots open, most significantly the 3rd line. In the image, J.T. Miller is assumed to be 3rd line wing. To his credit he had a stint in December where he played 3rd line center, though he can play wing as well. Miller on 3rd line is interchangeable to center or wing for all intents and purposes.

   $1.95 million remaining for a 3rd liner, and perhaps a Taxi Squad 13th/14th forward to carry on an NHL club.

   Do you recruit one of the remaining UFA centers for 3rd line... Derek Roy, Michael Handzus, Steve Ott, or the much-troubled Mike Ribeiro? Or do you entrust Miller as the 3rd line center months before training camp, only to sign Dany Heatley, Daniel Alfreddson, Lee Stempniak, Devin Setoguchi or Dustin Penner to a 1-year 3rd line winger deal?

   Decisions, decisions...

   Reportedly the NY Rangers management is highly-touting of American Hockey League prospect centerman Oscar Lindberg. He enters 2015 on the final year of his entry-level contract, with the highly-economical cap hit of $675,000/year. Does Glen Sather (willingly or by victim of the salary cap) have two rookie centers on the roster come opening night? Lindberg turns 23 in October, had an impressive rookie year in the AHL (18-26-44 in 75 games), and won the Swedish Elite League equivalent of the Conn Smythe in 2012-13. Does he report for a sophomore season for the Hartford Wolf Pack, or does management dare assume he will make the team out of September's training camp?

   With one remaining roster spot amongst the top-12 forward positions... the decision to sign a winger or a center depends on Miller and Lindberg. Could either have a breakout season in the NHL next year while adequately handling 16+ minutes per game for a full season+playoff? If they have value to an NHL franchise in the future, but perhaps not much as far as a 2015 NHL playoff run is concerned, is it not prudent to trade prospects for current-talent? 

   And if prospects, or Sather's confidence nor expectations in his prospects, is absent... what would the trade be?

   Who knows? Probably a trade to improve the depth at the center position. Probably a trade which sent away pick(s) and/or prospect(s) for asset(s) which could contribute to an NHL club immediately. Probably a trade not meant to free up salary room in 2018, but to perhaps create more future salary cap situations in exchange for veteran NHL talent with an affordable contract.

   The infamous Gomez/McDonagh trade occurred June 30th, 2009. The blockbuster Dubinsky/Anisimov/Nash trade occurred July 20th, 2012. The Lindros acquisition occurred all the way back on August 20th, 2001. Glen Sather has made ginormous trades at all points of summer. A swap of great impact, for better or worse, could happen anytime all summer. It COULD happen, I don't believe there's a point in the summer where the window closes for big-time NHL trades.

   Or, quite plausibly, there could be no more trading done by Glen Sather. A great deal depends on the expected quality and quantity of talent, desperate to break into the NHL. It's already quite a conservative leap to automatically assume Miller and Fast both crack the roster out of training camp. Where struggling to make the big leagues ends, the advantage of having cheap contracts in a salary cap era begins...

   Of course, as I disclaimed earlier, it would be shocking if NY gave its four RFAs 1-year deals. The longer the deals of these four, the greater the cap hit goes up, and the less wiggle room NY has in an already claustrophobic situation. 

   Simply put, if the kids are old enough to go out and play, Sather is awarding some youngsters a latch key. Or at least a key opportunity. If not, however, and Sather has sub-confidence in the farm, he would be remiss to not make a trade of some kind with somebody or someone. I may sound like Captain Obvious, but at least know that decision largely relies in Sather's confidence in his prospects. 

   And by the way, despite a lack of [quality] draft picks the past few seasons, there are many forward candidates seeking a dark horse roster spot come training camp time. 

   They include:

   Forward - Ryan Haggerty (NCAA)

   Forward - Danny Kristo (AHL)

   Forward - Anthony Duclair (QMJHL)

   Forward - Chris McCarthy (NCAA)

   Forward - Ryan Bourque (AHL)

   Defenseman - Troy Bodie (NCAA)

   Defenseman - Petr Zamorsky (Czech Republic)

   Defenseman - Troy Donnay (OHL)

   Defenseman - Calle Andersson (Sweden)

   Defenseman - Conor Allen (AHL)

   In closing, New York drew its success from having the weapon of young, speedy wingers... which compensated for the standard or sub-standard depth at the center position. I'm not crazy about Brassard as a 2nd center, or the heavy assumption of Miller's certainty at the vital spot of 3rd line center (or wing). But, to be fair, the 2013-14 Rangers were unlike any squad of forwards we've seen. Literally. There was never a NY Rangers team that played such evenly-spread out minutes since Average Time On-Ice (ATOI) became a tracked stat in the late 90's. Not a single Rangers forward averaged 19 minutes per game. That's just the method of madness that could give a team a fighting chance at contending without the gift of elite, or even "high-end"centermen.

   At this point, all we can do is watch.

   We'll see how salary arbitration goes down.

10 points after NYR/PIT Game 2

Thoughts after NYR/PIT Game 2:

- Henrik Lundqvist elite. Has been for many years and still is

- Marc Staal gets flack for not scoring a whole lot, but his defensive game is exceptional

- Rick Nash will be the new Joe Thornton as long as he is a blatant no-show in the postseason. Yeah he's had concussion problems but if he's not playing injured right now, it's a damn shame

- Derek Stepan and Derick Brassard are fine centers, but they are not bonafide elite centers in hockey. NY needs a #1 center if they want to skate with the big dogs. Brad Richards is getting amnesty-bought-out this June, there's not a doubt in my mind

- Ryan McDonagh is playing hurt. I'd lay 5-to-1 he needs shoulder surgery as soon as the NYR playoffs are over

- Dan Girardi may be playing hurt as well, but as far as 1st Pair top-minute defensemen go, he's fringe. The fact he's a righty and not a lefty made him $ in the big contract he signed a few months ago

- NYR power play has been figured out by opposing coaching staffs (Philly, and now Pittsburgh). There's not much other explanation given their sour cold-streak the past 5 or 6 playoff games. Philly nor Pittsburgh has a defense 'capable' of shutting down the NYR power play as badly as it has been

- Martin St. Louis is simply not meshing in NY. Whatever the reasoning, he seems powerless skating with Richards. He will be back for his contract year next season, where Richards will (almost certainly) not

- The NYR miss a guy like Chris Kreider in this series. They will need all the shots and goals they can get, and Kreider was a wonderful addition to the offense this season, as he continues to recover from the April 1st wrist injury that has sidelined him indefinitely

- Marc Andre Fleury was tested in Game 1 but was not tested in Game 2. NYR do not have home ice, nor do they have the superior offense. What they do have, however, is superior goaltending. Lundqvist thrives under pressure. Fleury has historically struggled.

My Rangers Deadline Prediction

My Personal Deadline Prediction:

NY Rangers trade W Ryan Callahan, LD Justin Falk, ??? to Buffalo Sabres for W Matt Moulson & LD Henrik Tallinder
NY Rangers trade ??? to Phoenix Coyotes for W Radem Vrbata & RD Derek Morris

??? could include... F J.T. Miller, W Danny Kristo, W Jesper Fast, C Oscar Lindbergh, RD Connor Allen. 2014/2015 NHL Entry Draft Picks. Rights to prospects such as F Anthony Duclair, D Brady Skjei, or G Mac Skapski.

   The idea being: trade Ryan Callahan if he cannot be signed to a reasonable price. Buffalo is an attractive idea because a) they're out of the playoff race b) Callahan grew up in upstate New York and c) with the money they gave Ville Leino, Buffalo could end up giving Callahan his money on the open market anyway. Moulson & Tallinder, like Callahan, are also rentals set to become unrestricted free agents July 1st. Phoenix, a historic trade deadline patron of the NY Rangers, would also be sending two rental players for picks, prospects and/or current roster players.

   Acquiring this batch of rentals would be pricy, but the Lundqvist contract suggests Glen Sather be aggressive with competing for a Cup sooner than later as Lundqvist turned 32 years old last week. If he believes the offensive upgrades to the 2nd & 3rd lines, as well as the 2nd & 3rd defensive pairs, make the club a contender in the playoffs... I believe he will maneuver the market shamelessly if he honestly believes the roster in its current form is within striking distance of true contention.

   So, I predict, he does and imports hired offensive guns.

   By the way, this would be the 2nd time where Phoniex would have dealt Derek Morris to the Rangers at the day of a trade deadline ;-P

Silver Lining to The Mess That Is The NY Rangers?

   Marc Staal missed his 2nd straight game after leaving the Devils-Rangers game last Saturday evening. It is being touted by the Rangers brass as a 'minor concussion,' yet it all but guarantees Staal out of the lineup at least a few weeks... if not more. And tonight, in NYR's 2nd consecutive 4-1 defeat on home ice, NYR captain Ryan Callahan left the game with a sprained knee. It is recently been reported it will be a six-to-eight week injury. 

   NY has played averagely-to-below-averagely, revealed in their 15-16-1 record. Once again, Broadway faces a rash of the injury bug, in the face of an already underachieving hockey club. It does not bode well for a team turnaround in performance, as NY has struggled mightily of late, so far taking little opportunity of their deluxe nine-game homestand. But of course, that's the simple bad news, the obvious writing on the wall. 

   Is their any good news?

   Potentially.

   Hear me out on this...

   1) Political pressure. If the NY Rangers are struggling while totally healthy, NYR General Manager Glen Sather has little options for explaining (to the fans, press, employees or employers) why a big trade, or multiple trades, need to happen now. But if a team that sucks while healthy has some key players injured, now and sporadically since October? Now all of a sudden Sather is expected to do something amending of the current roster. It simply won't look as bad to cash in NYR 1st Round Draft Picks or AHL prospects for talented mid-season acquisition. Sather had his options all summer long, and assembled a team that has not met its expectations. Injuries or management's incompetence (or, more likely, a combination of both), injuries like this can take the heat off of a GM's offseason plan falling on its face by December. But, then again, Jim Dolan's earlier vote of confidence assuring Sather his job was somehow invariably safe in NY. How sour does the season have to turn for Sather to actually lose his job?

   2) If... and granted this is a big if... If NYR were to make the 2014 playoffs... with Callahan/Staal/Nash having played significantly less games than their opposition come April... surely it would be an advantage in the dimensions of fatigue. Two players of very similar stature, roll, talent and value squaring off. One has played 80 NHL regular season games, the other has played 55. In a seven-game triple overtime, which player do you want? Lest we forget, Henrik Lundqvist has put up his best numbers in years he played his least amount of games (53 in 05-06, 62 in 11-12, & 43 in 12-13). The real trick is getting to the playoffs, which is the rub when we're discussing post-season advantages of your key players not playing in the regular-season. However, we have a pretty great feeling that Sather will do a lot to salvage this season for some sort of playoff birth. The Metropolitan Division is, of course, the worst division in the NHL. 

   What are the numbers regarding trade options?

   As of right now, with 13 healthy forwards and an injured Callahan, as well as 6 healthy defensemen and a concussed Staal, and Lundqvist/Talbot: NYR can afford to add $1.75 million in cap hit to the roster today. That is on pace to be a $5.51 million opening if the roster stays this way until the trade deadline, which is doubtful. If Callahan or Staal are placed on Long-Term Injury Reserve, additional cap credit can be added.

   So, here we are in Rangersland. Sather will have a lot of freedom to do what he wants with the majority of NYR's contracts expiring next July. With circumstances as they are now, Sather will also have a lot of freedom to make moves in the next few months should NY continue to flounder around mediocrity. Lundqvist was just signed to the big bucks until he turns 39 years old, meaning of course it is a huge commitment to compete for the Cup while ~12% of your salary cap is tied up in a guy who turns 33 next March. As injuries continue to daunt a roster seemingly incapable of consistent competition, even on home ice, it will be 'good news' for those interested in the team making attempts at trade & improvement. 

   We shall see how things unfold, or continue to fold.

Team USA Candidates for Sochi 2014 Olympics

   With the 2012 Winter Olympics roughly 100 days away, and the official announcement of Team USA roster for at least several weeks away... let's look at how NHL's top American-born players are doing one month into the 2013-14 NHL regulars season...

Seth Jones, the 19-year 4th overall pick in the 2013 NHL Entry Draft, has been playing big minutes and getting big results in his rookie season with Nashville. Is he a threat to patrol the blueline in Sochi for Team USA?

POS - NAME (TEAM) -----------TOI/G --- Pts/GP

C -- R. Kesler (VAN) ------------ 23:04 ----- 0.76

C -- D. Backes (STL) ----------- 20:44 ------ 1.15

W - J. vanRiemsdyk (TOR) --- 20:34 ------- 1.00

W - Z. Parise (MIN) -------------- 20:11 ----- 0.88

W - K. Okposo (NYI) ------------ 20:04 ---- 1.27

W - T.J. Oshie (STL) ------------ 20:04 ----- 0.85

C -- J. Pavelski (SJS) ---------- 19:42 ------- 1.13

W - P. Kane (CHI) --------------- 19:32 ----- 0.87

W - C. Higgins (VAN) ---------- 19:32 ----- 0.47

C -- B. Dubinsky (CBJ) -------- 19:31------- 0.64

W -- P. Kessel (TOR) ---------- 19:19 ------- 1.20

C -- D. Stepan (NYR) ---------- 18:33 ------ 0.71

W -- N. Gerbe (CAR) ----------- 18:29 ----- 0.47

C -- P. Stastny (COL) ---------- 18:23 ------ 0.77

W - L. Stempniak (CGY) ------ 18:21------- 0.90

W - B. Wheeler (WPG) -------- 17:54 ------ 0.56

W - B. Ryan (ANH) ------------- 17:45 ----- 1.00

W - R. Callahan (NYR) -------- 17:43 ------ 0.67

W - J. Pominville (MIN) -------- 17:42 ----- 0.75

W - B. Gionta (MTL) ------------ 17:42 ----- 0.60

W - C. Kreider (NYR) ---------- 17:41------ 0.86

C -- M. Arcobello (EDM) ------ 17:29 ----- 0.75

W - B. Saad (CHI) -------------- 17:10 ------ 0.53

W - D. Stafford (BUF) ---------- 16:56 ----- 0.29

W - D. Brown (LAK) ------------ 16:48 ---- 0.47

W - R.J. Umberger (CBJ) ----- 16:45 ------ 0.57

W - C. Atkinson (CBJ) --------- 16:43 ------ 0.36

C -- M. Cullen (NSH) ---------- 16:28 ------ 0.29

W - N. Foligno (BUF) ---------- 16:26 ----- 0.60

W - M. Pacioretty (MTL) ------- 16:22 ----- 0.43

NAME (TEAM) -------------------TOI/G --- Pts/GP

R. Suter (MIN) -------------------- 28:31 ------ 0.62

D. Byfuglien (WPG) ------------- 26:25 ------ 0.56

P. Martin (PIT) -------------------- 25:49 ------ 0.40

S. Jones (NSH) ------------------ 25:06 -------- 0.50

A. Greene (NJD) ----------------- 24:38 ------- 0.21

J. Faulk (CAR) -------------------- 23:51 ------ 0.40

J. Johnson (CBJ) ---------------- 22:55 -------- 0.29

J. Carlson (WSH) ---------------- 22:53 ------- 0.27

Z. Bogosian (WPG) -------------- 22:50 ------ 0.19

C. Fowler (ANH) ----------------- 22:48 ------ 0.31

M. Carle (TBL) -------------------- 22:44 ------ 0.57

B. Orpik (PIT) ---------------------- 22:42 ----- 0.40

K. Yandle (PHX) ------------------ 22:30 ----- 0.75

R. McDonagh (NYR) ------------ 22:07 ----- 0.43

J. Braun (SJS) --------------------- 21:59 ------ 0.20

J. Petry (EDM) --------------------- 21:56 ----- 0.31

J. Trouba (WPG) ------------------ 21:15 ----- 0.25

T. Gilbert (FLA) -------------------- 21:09 ---- 0.13

A. Goligoski (DAL) --------------- 21:07 ---- 0.14

J. Wisniewski (CBJ) ------------- 21:02 ------ 0.71

E. Johnson (COL) ---------------- 20:46 ----- 0.31

D. DeKeyser (DET) -------------- 20:42 ---- 0.31

R. Hainsey (CAR) ---------------- 20:09 ---- 0.20

J. Gardiner (TOR) ---------------- 19:51 ---- 0.20

M. Niskanen (PIT) ---------------- 19:32 ---- 0.60

K. Shattenkirk (STL) ------------- 19:16 ---- 0.77

J. McBain (BUF) ------------------ 19:16 ---- 0.44

R. Scuderi (PIT) ------------------ 19:12 ----- 0.09

B. Lovejoy (ANH) ---------------- 18:54 ---- 0.00

N. Schmidt (WSH) --------------- 18:40 ----- 0.00

C. Butler (CGY) ------------------- 18:15 ---- 0.13

T. Krug (BOS) --------------------- 18:03 ---- 0.57

N. Leddy (CHI) -------------------- 16:23  --- 0.53

J. Corvo (OTT) --------------------- 14:56 --- 0.71

T. Gleason (CAR) ---------------- 14:25 ---- 0.00

S. Oleksy (WSH) ------------------ 16:12 --- 0.31

K. Ballard (MIN) ------------------  15:54 --- 0.44

NAME (TEAM) ------- (RECORD) - SV% - GAA

B. Bishop (TBL) ---------- (9-2-0) ---- 0.925 --- 2.15

J. Quick (LAK) ------------ (8-5-0) --- 0.896 ---- 2.68

J. Howard (DET) --------- (5-5-2) ---- 0.915 --- 2.64

C. Anderson (OTT) ------ (4-4-2) ---- 0.912 --- 3.14

R. Miller (BUF) ---------- (2-10-0) --- 0.919 --- 3.09

C. Schneider (NJD) ----- (1-4-2) ----- 0.907 --- 2.27

Ryan McDonagh, an NHL defenseman in his 3rd season, signed a big contract for NY Rangers last summer, and has been the defensive-shutdown man for NY since breaking into the NHL from University of Wisconsin. Will he represent Team USA as he did in the World Juniors when USA won the gold?

NHL'ers still active from the 2010 Olympic Team USA roster in Vancouver:

D. Backes

D. Brown

R. Callahan

R. Kesler

P. Kessel

R. Malone

Z. Parise

J. Pavelski

B. Ryan

P. Stastny

T. Gleason

E. Johnson

J. Johnson

M. Komisarek

P. Martin

B. Orpik

R. Suter

R. Whitney

R. Miller

J. Quick

T. Thomas

October RoundUp: Nash, Richards, Lundqvist, Prospal

   It's been an... ehrm... interesting start of the 2013-14 NY Rangers season. Let's talk about it. shall we?

   Rick Nash will need to go on Long Term Injury Reserve before NY has enough cap space to afford any relevant additional contract. If Nash is NOT going on LTIR, but not expected back within a month (as is Callahan), NY throwing $750,000 at, say, Vinny Prospal, would be about all they could do to replace big-forward minutes per game from injuries. If Nash DOES go on LTIR, it means this concussion could be a terrible terrible long-term injury, detrimental to Nash's future. He was injured 19 calendar days (7 games) ago, meaning he can be put retroactive onto LTIR on Friday Nov 1st. Nash's status has remained since the night of the incident, and there's no known recovery time projected. If Nash is indeed placed on LTIR, it will be the approximately same time Carl Hagelin is available to be removed from it, except Nash's LTIR 'replacement' players can have salary cap hit (s) up to $7.8 million. In other words: if Nash goes on LTIR, NY will no longer have a cap crunch, but rather, a large chunk of salary space suddenly available for mid-season acquisition. 

   As of October 31st heading into the Buffalo game, according to CapGeek, NYR can add $738,000 to the roster today, or $3.1 million at the trade deadline. Of course, as stated earlier, this is without Nash going on LTIR.

   Here's what the lineup will look like sometime in November, assuming Hagelin/Callahan return inNovember, and there are  (hopefully) no other injuries in the meantime:

Hagelin -------- Stepan -------- Callahan

Richards  ---- Brassard ------ Zuccarello

Pouliot -------- Boyle ----- Miller/Kreider

Dorsett ------- D. Moore --------- Pyatt

(Extra Forward: Mashinter)

(Injured: Nash)

McDonagh ----- Girardi

Staal ------------- Stralman

Del Zotto ------- J. Moore

(Extra Defense: Falk)

Lundqvist ----- Talbot

Powe (Buried)

Asham (Buried)

   If Nash goes on LTIR and is indeed out a significant stretch of time, NY can go out and get a hefty mid-season contract or two (via trade). Nash was 'expected' to produce, say, 40 goals this season. If his injury is proving to be as serious as it sounds, it will be upon Sather to try and replace Nash's offensive expectation at least partially if NY is to compete in the post-season dance.

   Let's take a look at some players slated to be Unrestricted Free Agents next July, particularly those on potential deadline-sellers:

Buffalo Sabres: W Matt Moulson ($3.133 million/year), C Steve Ott ($2.950 million/year)

Calgary Flames: C/W Mike Cammalleri ($6.00 million/year), W Lee Stempniak ($2.500 million/year), C Matt Stajan ($3.500 million/year)

Dallas Stars: W Ray Whitney ($4.500 million/year), 

Edmonton Oilers: W Ales Hemsky ($5.000 million/year), W Ryan Smyth ($2.250 million/year), W Ryan Jones ($1.500 million/year)

Florida Panthers: C Marcel Goc ($1.700 million/year), W Brad Boyes ($1.000 million/year), C Scott Gomez ($0.900 million/year)

Minnesota Wild: W Dany Heatley ($7.500 million/year)

Phoenix Coyotes: W Radim Vrbata ($3.000 million/year)

Winnipeg Jets: C Olli Jokinen ($4.500 million/year), W Devin Setoguchi ($3.000 million)

   Well, there's not much real 'replacement' of Nash's theoretical 40 put-ins. What's worse, if the trade deadline continues to have the historical trend of premium price for sub-premium player (just look at what NY gave up for Clowe last spring!), Sather will likely have to give up vital draft picks for the 2nd straight year, or at the very least a quality AHL prospect (Danny Kristo?). That's serious stuff to ponder, considering a depleted year of draft picks twice over for a couple of unsuccessful runs to the Cup Finals is usually a raw deal for an NHL club.

   Former NYR Assistant GM, Don Maloney, has had a history of trades with NYR GM Glen Sather. Prucha, Dawes, Korpikoski, Rozsival for Antropov, Morris, Sjistrom the past 5 years. Radim Vrbata is perhaps the top-quality goal-scorer among the names listed, and would, in this blog's opinion, be the best target to gun for in lieu of Nash. His contract is a modest fraction of Nash's $7.8 million, and if this team proves to be a playoff-calibre team minus a natural goal-scorer, I could very likely see a Vrbata trade hashed out. The problems are: 1) Phoenix is still legitimately fighting for a playoff spot in their division. 2) Vrbata is averaging a point per game this year, and if sustained could prove an even more expensive luxury tax on his rental services. 3) Vrbata could very likely be in legitimate negotiations to re-sign in Phoenix. 4) He does have a pesky No-Trade Clause he'd have to waive to be traded anywhere. As if anyone needs clarification: a Nash long-term injury would be a bad turn for this young NYR season, even if it can be relevantly relieved with LTIR cap credit. 

   That is why Vinny Prospal, current free agent and former Ranger, is being whispered about. While long in the tooth at 38 years old, Prospal could be signed to a mid-season very small 1-year contract (certainly under $1 million), without sacrificing of picks/prospects. He is certainly not an "ideal" mid-season depth signing, but then again, NYR's start to the 2013-14 season hasn't exactly been "ideal" itself. Do you remember NY signing Jason Arnott mid-season last spring only to have it fall through after he failed his physical? Deja vu.

   The team has looked competitive the past 4 contests, going 2-2. The opening road game blowouts, muddled in a 3-6 season-opening road trip, were very suggestive of a team adapting to a new coaching regime. Lundqvist's injury, as well as Nash/Callahan/Hagelin's respective absences, our heroes were doing so under shitty circumstances. Since Cam Talbot's NHL debut in Philadelphia, Detroit & Long Island, as well as Lundqvist's solid outing in a 2-0 defeat to Montreal (which was actually a very close and entertaining game prior to the 2nd goal), this signals a team adjusting its frequency and at the very least competing in games for 60 minutes, despite the chaotic atmosphere. This is a good sign. 

   4-7 is not terrible...considering the competitive gameplay the past 4 contests, nor the wave of injury that has sidelined serious components of this squad, nor the vast contrast of coaching from John Tortorella's bizarro approach. In 2011-12, after Marc Staal, a major component went down with a concussion, the team continued to compete and keep games close until his January return. The same must happen here. As HockeyRodent mentioned somewhere recently, the rash of injuries, if survived, can be key elements of an advantage come playoffs. Think about it; if Nash misses 4 months (including the Olympics), but returns in time for a playoff campaign... He could be the freshest legs in any contests. The same with Callaan or Hagelin playing 10-20 games fewer in the first quarter of the season, only to find themselves better-rested than their opponents should the team place 4th-or-better in the mediocre Metropolitan Division. 

   I am not pressing the panic-button on the team. But, as no news is bad news for concussed franchise winger Rick Nash, the panic button is on our radars. His long-term career could seriously be altered if his symptoms continue to loom. Mind you, we traded Anisimov+Dubinsky+Erixon+1st Round Draft Pick for Nash. His Rangers playoff debut was a lemon, and Sather is far from 'breaking even' on that deal in retrospect, particularly when Nash is watching from the press box. Callahan, despite attending 90%+ of regular season games the past 6 years, has a propensity for physicality (and subsequent injury) that will also need to be honestly addressed next off-season for his (theoretical) new contract. As Callahan approaches his 30th birthday, how long-term will his $5+ million/yr contract be?

   Brad Richards is playing the best hockey since his 1st season in NY back in 2011. He is getting pucks to the net, he has adapted to playing wing almost effortlessly, and is one of NY's few brightspots wrapping up the 1st month of the regular season. However... Richards' resurgence does provoke some interesting questions.

   1) We know that the new 2013 Contract Bargaining Agreement, which has since been implemented after Richards' 2011 massive contract-signing, will levy a hefty penalty on Richards should he retire early. Since his contract is frontloaded (he makes tens of millions his first years, only $1 million/year his final 3 years), should he retire early, NY would be vulnerable to an early-retirement "recapture" salary cap penalty down the road, which could be vital. So is Richards' successful season good or bad?

   Well... he probably will not be traded. Teams will not like his contract nor his early-retirement penalty risk, atop of his No-Movement-Clause. NY is almost certain to amnesty-buyout his contract next summer, no matter how well Richards performs, simply for the economic reasons. Such is nearly the same boat for Chicago Blackhawks' sniper Marian Hossa. If he cannot be traded, and is destined to be amnestied, it's only an upside for NYR, as winning the Stanley Cup in 2014 would automatically grant management immunity in a 5-year radius. Richards probably is aware he could be amnestied next summer, and could then, in turn, be playing for his next NHL contract next summer. NY can only hope to reap this year's fruits of Richards' labor before likely ejecting him from the franchise.

   Another bright spot: Cam Talbot. A month ago, the young man had Lundqvist, Biron & Hedberg above him in the goalie depth chart, with almost no conceivable way of playing 3 games in October. Well, an injury, a surprise retirement & tryout-release later, Talbot unexpectedly played his first 3 NHL games, going 2-1 with impressive statistics & consistency. His modest salary of $567,500/year is most welcomed to the cap-crunched NYR, and he is the first rookie NHL goalie I can recall to win his first 2 road games when trailing after two-periods. He is making a strong case to become the team's backup netminder, as his contract runs until July 2015. Wham, bam, thank you, Cam.

   If NY is to seriously vie for Cup Contention as Spring approaches, we must remind ourselves of 1 thing: Henrik Lundqvist. If The King is to win 16 playoff games, on top on his Olympic duties in February, he will need to sit out roughly 20 games. His best season, 2011-12, he played only 62 games as Biron was given 20 games... and mind you, that was with no Olympics. Lundqvist is no longer in his twenties, and victim of early-season injury, NY must not rely on Hank for 95% of the icetime between now and April. Not if the team is geared to win.

   The problem is, of course, the team must first qualify for the post season if it is to win it all. It's not exactly correct to conservatively bench Hank for rest when the playoff battle is neck-and-neck the final 15 regular season games. Even under optimal turnaround circumstances, Lundqvist can simply not play 70 of the final 80 games this year and be expected to carry his team to a Cup. History has shown goalies with more rest than the (elite) iron men have won it all... or, arguably, teams that spend their salary cap on the skaters in front as opposed to especially the goalie... but that's a debate best saved closer to Lundqvist's impending Unrestricted Free Agency.

   I found myself scratching my head with the new defensive pairs, especially since the top 5 defensemen were still on the Rangers for their 2012 Playoff Run (McDonagh-Girardi, Staal-Stralman, Del Zotto). But, not surprisingly, that is the defensive scheme Vignault has reverted back to this past stretch of competitive games. Girardi with 0 points thusfar may be just the lull Sather is looking for to re-sign Girardi to a less-costly contract extension. McDonagh-Girardi, so often overworked by the Tortorella Administration, finds itself getting less abusive icetime per game, as AV has shared the 3 defensive pairs' icetime much more fairly than we have seen. As I said earlier, fresher legs is a good thing... assuming the playoffs are indeed on NYR's menu.

   With most of the salaries coming off the books next summer, in addition to the universally-expected rise in the salary cap... NY finds itself in a rare opportunity to systematically evaluate its players for future gigs on Broadway. Indeed, most of the players on ice at any given time for New York are selfishly (but naturally) fighting for their future in the NHL. Future wages, future contract length, future marketability. This is a wonderful subliminal reality to have in the team's mind overall, if it is to remain competitive for 60-minute stretches despite the injuries, staunch coaching change & other challenging factors. Here is a look at the current team's contract situation going into next summer:

Hagelin (2.250) - Stepan (3.075) - Nash (7.800)

xxxxxxxxxxxxxx - xxxxxxxxxxxxx - xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxx - xxxxxxxxxxxxx - Miller (1.245)

xxxxxxxxxxxxxx - xxxxxxxxxxxxx - Dorsett (1.633)

McDonagh (4.700) - xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Staal (3.975) --------- xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx - xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx - Talbot (0.567)

RFA (with qualifying offers):

C --- Brassard ---- (3.700) [arbitration]

LD - Del Zotto ---- (2.900) [arbitration]

W -- Zuccarello -- (1.150) [arbitration]

D --- Falk ---------- (1.024) [arbitration]

W -- Kreider ------ (0.851) [no arbitration]

W -- Kristo -------- (0.827) [no arbitration]

D -- J. Moore ---- (0.851) [no arbitration]

W -- Mashinter -- (0.666) [arbitration]

UFA (outgoing yearly cap hit)

G ---- Lundqvist -- (6.875)

C/W - Richards --- (6.667) 

RW -- Callahan -- (4.275)

RD -- Girardi ------ (3.325)

C/W - Boyle ------- (1.700)

RD -- Stralman --- (1.700)

W --- Pouliot ------ (1.300)

C/W - Powe ------- (1.067)

C --- D. Moore ---- (1.000)

W --- Asham ------- (1.000)

C/W - Haley ------- (0.600)