Do Faceoffs Matter to Stanley Cup Champions? How pricey are Stepan, Hagelin this summer? Nobody shuts the door in 3rd periods like Henrik Lundqvist.

How Often Are Certain Elements In A Stanley Cup Champion?

I was sifting through some team statistics of NHL postseasons, looking over how strong or weak the last 8 Stanley Cup teams were in Power Play, Penalty Killing, Goals For/Against per Game, Face-off Percentage, & Goaltender Save Percentage. I was wondering how the current New York Rangers look on paper in terms of these stats.

Power Play: Believe it or not, most of the recent Stanley-Cup-winning teams have not had to have an exquisite power play in the postseason. In fact, the 2013 Chicago Blackhawks (13th of 16), the 2012 Los Angeles Kings (12th of 16), & the 2011 Boston Bruins (14th of 16) were amongst the worst PP teams in the postseason. The New York Rangers currently have a league-average Power Play, which is 15th of 30 (or 9th of the 16 currently projected playoff teams*). The average Cup winner the past 8 seasons has also had a 9th-of-16 power play. No championship team since 2006 has been Top-4 (out of 16) in a given playoff! 

Winning Face-offs: Since hockey is a game of possession, its axiomatic having a frequent faceoff-percentage, thus frequent puck possession, sounds like an element absolutely needed for a Stanley Cup campaign, right?... Believe it or not, the latest trend of Cup winning teams have only had to be average-to-slightly-above-average in the face-off circles. The 2013 Chicago Blackhawks (12th of 16), the 2012 Los Angeles Kings (10th of 16), & the 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins (t-11th of 16) were overall face-off losers. The past 4 Stanley Cup winners have featured 2 strong face-off teams & 2 weak face-off teams, so it’s been a high-variance element in evaluating championship calibre. The New York Rangers are nearly the weakest face-off team in the league, ranking 29th of 30 (or 16th of 16 vs currently projected playoff teams*).

It isn't at all uncommon for teams with a lousy Power Play to find a way to win it all. The 2011 Boston Bruins had the 3rd worst PP of all 16 playoff teams that postseason. 

Goals Allowed per Game: What’s the scoop on allowing goals en route to winning the Stanley Cup? Well, it doesn’t take a rocket surgeon to figure out the teams that win championships don’t allow many goals. In fact, the past 8 Stanley Cup teams were all Top-5 in GAA (average rank of 3rd of 16). Fortunately, the New York Rangers are 2nd of 30 in the NHL (and 2nd of 16 amongst projected playoff teams*, only behind Chicago). 

Penalty Kill: Well if a strong Power Play isn’t always an absolute ingredient in winning 16 playoff games, is Penalty Killing any different? Well, looking over the past 8 years, Penalty Kill has been considerably better than Power Play. The 2014 Los Angeles Kings (9th of 16 in PK) were the weakest penalty-killing team in a decade to win it all. Otherwise, all winners from 2007 to 2013 were teams exclusively sporting a PK that was Top-6 in the postseason. The New York Rangers are currently 9th of 30 on the kill in the NHL (7th of 16 vs currently projected playoff teams*). Conclusion? With occasional exception, a tight PK is a must. NY Rangers, while there’s always longing for improvement, must utilize their playoff PK execution, perhaps even more than their playoff PP.

It isn't at all uncommon for teams with a losing face-off winning percentage to still find a way to win it all. The 2013 Chicago Blackhawks had the 5th lowest face-off winning percentage en route to the Stanley Cup.

Conclusion? 

In this era, having a lethal Power Play or top-tier faceoff winning percentage can definitely help... but doesn't seem all that required in the average recent Cup winner. 

Penalty Kill and Save Percentage are slightly more important, both averaging out to be all over the Top-10 spectrum in championship campaigns.

The categories of postseason Goals-For-Per-Game & Goals-Against-Per-Game are most critical. It constantly and consistently takes a Top-5 goal-differential club to win the Stanley Cup. The previous categories had a lot of leeway and variance, Goal Differential does not.

*When comparing NYR to ‘currently projected playoff teams’, I am ranking NYR vs MTL, DET, NYI, TBL, PIT, WSH, BOS, NSH, STL, ANH, CHI, VAN, LAK, MIN & WPG.

*   *   *

How Much Money Would Derek Stepan, Carl Hagelin Receive in Salary Arbitration?

Carl Hagelin: What is Hagelin’s value? There has been only 1 single salary-arbitration case the last few summers… Vladimir Sobotka’s in the Summer of 2014. Oddly enough, Sobotka appears to be a very similar player to Hagelin statistically. Specifically…

• Hagelin will be 27 years old this summer when he is eligible for arbitration… the same age Sobotka when he had his case.
• Sobotka went 9-24-33 in 61 games the season before his hearing, and had a STL career of 29-72-101 in 247 games.
• Right now, Hagelin is 14-14-28 in 59 games, and has a NY Rangers career of 55-68-123 in 243 games.
• Hagelin has a slight edge in career stats, but projected to have a lesser-pedigree of ice time and points than Sobotka had in the year before his arbitration
• Both have a career differential of 20 seconds contrasting career average ice time per game of the two

It would seem Hagelin likely gets a similar salary increase as Sobotka received, or perhaps a bit more considering better career numbers (despite a slightly worse season). Sobotka was awarded 1-year, $2.725 million settlement (which remains pending as Sobotka had already defected to the KHL), or 3.95% of the incoming $69 million salary cap. Considering Hagelin may get slightly more than Sobotka, and the salary cap may only slightly increase next season…

My estimate, for a 1-year arbitration result, would be something like 4 or 4.1 percent of $70 million (assuming a modest $1 million increase of the cap). That math gets us somewhere between $2.80 - $2.87 million cap hit on a 1-year deal. Of course, a sluggish or hot-handed regular season finish and/or postseason performance can always change these numbers for better or worse.

Carl Hagelin turns 27 years old this summer. As his speed and mobility are perhaps the largest part of his utility and effectiveness as an NHL-calibre 3rd-line winger... A stunted salary cap, and a less replaceable, exponentially more daunting Derek Stepan will probably be priority-one in reaching a long-term contract. A mutual 1-or-2 year deal slightly under or around $3 million/year would be my prediction.

   Carl Hagelin probably receives 1-year, $2.85 million salary arbitration award with the data as of 02/25/15.

*   *   *

Derek Stepan: The semi-retired great NYR blogger Hockey Rodent last posted an analysis comparing Stepan’s looming pay raise to that of Ryan O’Reilly’s last summer with The Colorado Avalanche. In it, Ro’ logically predicts Stepan will top O’Reilly’s $6 million per year cap hit. O’Reilly, as of Summer 2014, had 73-118-191 in 345 career NHL games (18:20 ATOI). Stepan, in contrast, reigns is at 84-156-240 in 339 career NHL games (18:18 ATOI). That’s 49 more points in 6 less games! Stepan is 8 months older than O’Reilly, both are vital centers for their respective clubs, & both have virtually the same exact career ATOI per game

• O’Reilly avoided arbitration by signing a 2-year, $6 million/yr deal with Colorado. The incoming salary cap was $69,000,000 (so this was 8.7% of salary cap per-year deal). If Stepan is indeed more valuable and statistically productive than O’Reilly, let’s play with some numbers. A 1-year deal would be perhaps 9 to 9.5 percent of an incoming salary cap of $70 million (6.3 to 6.65 million), a 2-year deal being 9.5 to 10 percent (6.65 to 7 million/year). 
• Stepan is the 1st New York Ranger to reach 40 points in each of his first 5 NHL seasons since Tomas Sandstorm (’85-’89). He missed the 2014 training camp over a contract holdout probably less than $100,000 in disagreement. Stepan, who has been incredibly healthy and NHL-calibre, only to improve each season and now tinker with a point-per-game 2015 season as he is the #1 center in a seemingly seriously contending NY Rangers team. There is no reason why Stepan shouldn’t be expecting to break the bank. This is one restricted free agent Glen Sather will not be able to leverage, as he’s infamously been known to brink-push. 
• Option 1: Let Stepan go to arbitration, and accept whatever 1-year deal is awarded. Perhaps $6-$6.5 million in a 1-year settlement. Compared to a multi-year deal, with a cap hit closer to $7 million than $6 million, and a possibly stagnant salary cap increase… NYR can take the cheapest possible salary cap for 2015-16, but risk losing him to unrestricted free agency in 2016. 
• Option 2: Negotiate an amicable long-term extension, the sooner the better if this is the decided route, as any star player’s price gets higher the closer he gets to reaching unrestricted free agency (a little over 16 months away for Stepan). 
• For a long-term extension, looking over relatively comparable players in similar situations/similar stats as Stepan this upcoming summer, I would estimate the following… 1-yr: $6.30 mil/yr… 2-yrs: $6.70 mil/yr… 3-yrs: $6.90 mil/yr, 4-yrs: $7.00 mil/yr, 5-yrs: $7.10 mil/yr, 6-yrs: $7.15 mil.yr, 7-yrs: $7.20 mil/yr, 8-yrs: $7.25 mil/yr. I’m not so sure one of the other 29 NHL clubs could offer $7.5 million/yr long-term on Stepan, especially if big-money market teams all experience cap crunch in 2015-16 (as the Canadian dollar remains bleak).

"Derek, will you lower your asking price if the salary cap decreases next season?..."

Derek Stepan probably receives a 1-year, $6.3 million salary arbitration award with the data as of 02/25/15. Multi-year contract extension could be anywhere from $6.7 million to $7.25 million, or perhaps higher on the open marker in July 2016. 

I would not be shocked if Stepan, Rangers ended up going to arbitration in 5 months. 

Fun Facts!

Protecting 3rd Period Leads: NY Rangers are only team in the last 15 years with no more than 1 regulation loss over a 150-game span when leading after 2 periods (140-1-9). via EliasSportsBureau

'94 Officially A Generation Ago: Making his NHL debut last weekend was NY Rangers goalie prospect Mac Skapski. Skapski was the 3rd youngest NYR netminder to ever start a game (behind John Vanbiesbrouck and Dan Blackburn respectively). But, perhaps unbelievably, Skapski was the first NYR goalie to play a game without having been alive for a NY Rangers Stanley Cup since Mike Richter broke the curse the day before he was born! Earlier in the year, prospect Anthony Duclair became the 1st NYR skater to have not been alive for a NYR Stanley Cup since the entire team in Game 7, 1994 vs the Canucks. How the years have flown by!

NYR Salary Chart: Can we get a uniformed CapGeek replacement site going on, internet? Here's the NYR salary info.

Rick Nash is on-pace for HISTORIC season, IMPRESSIVE records

* Rick Nash is averaging 2.2001 goals-per-hour, which would be the NHL record (since individuals' icetime started being tracked in '97-'98) if the season ended today.

*In fact, only Alex Ovechkin in 2007-08 (2.0589/hr) & Jonathan Cheechoo in 2005/06 (2.0539/hr) have scored at least 2 goals-per-hour and and placed top-5 in goals in a single season. 

*Unbelievably, if Rick Nash actually goes on to lead the NHL in goals... at the ripe old age of 'almost 31 years old, Nash would become the oldest player to lead the league in the past 40 years!

* In the past 60 years, only Phil Esposito ('73-'75) and Gordie Howe ('63) have been older than Nash is now and gone on to lead the league in goals.

* If Rick Nash wins the scoring title this season, it will be his 2nd award, with his 1st being the '03-'04 season... This would also mean than Rick Nash would tie Nels Stewart's record (1926 & 1937) of going 11 years in-between NHL scoring titles. 

* Rick Nash is the youngest player to lead the NHL in goals in a season (41 goals in '03-'04), at age 19.

* Rick Nash is the most recent (6th youngest) NHL player to score over 40 goals in a season.

* In the '14-'15 season, Rick Nash would be the most recent (and 5th oldest) NHL player to ever lead the NHL in goals

* Rick Nash is leading the NHL in Even-Strength Goals (ESG). If his pace continues, he is set to score 39 ESG's. If so, he would be the oldest NHL player to score 39 ESG's in the past 41 years!

* Rick Nash is also currently leading the NHL in...

 -  0.6458 goals-per-game [minimum 10 goals scored]

 -  Shorthanded goals (4 SHG's)

 -  1st Goal Scored of Game (7)

 -  1st in Home Goals scored (17)

 -  1st in Goals vs Division (14)

 -  2nd in Away Goals (14)

 

 -  5th in Game-Winning-Goals (5)

Calling on NHL Salary Nerds to Come Together & Pool Spreadsheets for Post-CapGeek Era

I have created a salary spreadsheet for the NYR New York Rangers of the NHL. It is admittedly a work in progress, but it is a start, following the cold days of internet since CapGeek tragically & unexpectedly shutdown. I want to get 30 'contract beat-writers' of each NHL team o come together and start a network, based on salary & salary cap data in the NHL. I'm very interested to go nuts and see if there's enough interest to establish a new site, is there anyone out there interested?

Please contact me via E-Mail @ HockeyStatMiner@Yahoo.com... or if you're on Twitter @HockeyStatMiner

HERE is my New York Rangers salary page. Feel free to bookmark it!

Salary Page FAQ's
- Long-Term Injury Reserve credit (LTIR) is not tracked... yet
- This simply shows the contracts of the team's top 25 contracts (5C-10W-8D-2G)
- This is not reflective of current NYR cap space today
- It gives a projected 7-year outlook on the team's finances, as well as estimates for future salary caps. - A player with * attached to cap hit signifies the player's contract has a bonus
- QO is qualifying offer

Raw Link:
http://bit.ly/1tJb7dr

NY Rangers Notes - Wed 10/22/14

- The oldest player on the team is playing the most minutes. Martin St. Louis, who turns 40 years old next June, is leading all NY Rangers forwards in icetime per game (18:31). Behind Nash, MSL is quietly also enjoying a great start to the 2014-15 season. He is tied with Kreider for 2nd on the team in points (1-5-6), tied with Nash for 1st in plus/minus (+6). 

- Kevin Hayes, who got his 1st career assist last night in the 4-3 overtime win against the Devils, is now dead-last in the NHL in faceoff win % (among those to take 10+ faceoffs). He is 15-46 (24.6%).

- Chris Kreider continues to be a young man with tremendous upside. Behind Nash, and tied with MSL, Kreider is 2nd on the team in points (2-4-6), but has taken 9 minor penalties in 7 games. Kreider turns 24 years old in April. What a nifty game-winning pass to Klein last night in overtime... Remember when Kreider was riding pine in tight 3rd periods/overtimes last regular season? Good news: The Kreider Project is progressing.

- The NY Rangers lead the NHL in takeaways (57). NYR are also 24th in faceoff win % (47.8), 24th in Power Play % (10.0%), 20th in Penalty Kill % (78.6%), tied for 13th in Goals-For-Per-Game (2.86), and 23rd in Goals-Against-Per-Game (3.29).

- Duclair sat out his 2nd consecutive game, as the Rangers have outscored their opponent 8-3 in those 2 games. With Chris Mueller's impressive early performance, and Dominic Moore seemingly set up to play 3rd line minutes until Stepan returns, does this edge out Duclair's chances at a full NHL season? Or is it looking like he will be returned to his junior team (Quebec Remparts - QMJHL)? If Duclair played center, we wouldn't be having this conversation. Yet NY has a plethora of wingers, and Duclair's NYR residency is uncertain, or at least at this time.

- With Henrik Lundqvist's 4-0 shutout last Sunday, he surpassed Eddie Giacomin's NYR record of 9 straight seasons with a shutout, cementing a shutout for the 10th consecutive year. Since allowing 14 goals on 76 shots to begin the season, Lundqvist has stopped 90 of 94 since (.957 SV%) his last 3 games (3-0-0). 

- Rick Nash is the hottest goal-scorer in the NHL thusfar. In fact, not only is he leading all NHL players in goals scored, but this is the fastest year Rick Nash has accrued 8 goals. His previous record was 8 goals scored in his first 9 games for the Blue Jackets in 2007-08 season. Nash has scored a goal, or game-winning shootout goal, in all 7 of NYR's game so far this season. 

Nash 8 Goals first 9 GP in 07-08

Nash 6 Goals first 9 GP in 09-10

Nash 8 Goals first 7 GP in 14-15

- For the 2nd consecutive game, Matt Hunwick played more minutes per game than John Moore, and looked competent in doing so. With Mike Kostka rightfully in the doghouse, the spot of 7th defenseman (as Dan Boyle remains injured until November) is Hunwick's to lose at this point. While playing almost exclusively even-strength minutes, if Hunwick continues his play, he could be the club's best bargain at 1-year $600,000 in contract salary.

- MSL is leading forwards in icetime at 18:31/game. Last regular season, the highest icetime-per-game by a forward was Brad Richards at 18:41/game. Vigneault continues to roll lines and spread out his forwards' icetime. Before the AV administration, the NY Rangers hadn't gone a season with a forward averaging under 20 minutes/game since the 1999-2000 (Muckler/Tortorella) season. Speedy wingers & fresh legs remain a signature advantage for this team, at least up front. However on the back end, McDonagh & Girardi are both averaging over 29 shifts per game. McDonagh ranks 10th in icetime/game in the NHL (25:36) & Girardi ranks 27th (23:31). Can we expect the team's top pair to play these minutes another 75 games, only to raise expectations for additional 4-28 playoff games? And people are talking about Marc Staal as if he's expendable? Go figure

NY Rangers Salary Set-Up: The Miller Effect, Joe Thornton?, Any Room for Another UFA?

   After securing veteran right-handed defenseman, and historical San Jose power play quarterback Dan Boyle, to a very reasonable 2-year $9 million contract, the NY Rangers now appear to be revealing their new roster shape and design slated for next October. Dominic Moore was re-signed to a 2-year $3 million dollar deal, another bang-for-your-buck free agency signing. I'm not terribly hot on Tanner Glass, but hey, he's a cheaper replacement for 4th line wing than Derek Dorsett, so lest we complain too much...

   NY now has 4 relevant Restricted Free Agents remaining to be signed... 3 of which have filed for salary arbitration; Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello, and Derrick Brassard. All 3 of which, by the way, are coming off breakout seasons, and will receive considerably bigger contracts than any of them would have received last summer. The 4th RFA, whom does not have recourse of salary arbitration, is left-handed young defenseman John Moore, whom also earned his pay last season.

   There are rumblings of a Joe Thornton trade (involving Marc Staal, Jesper Fast, and picks/prospects) in the mix, but most fans know better than to take an internet trade rumor at face value. It would make sense, in theory, for NY to acquire one more center this summer, as the center position is the least 'deep' position New York currently retains on its roster. If not Thornton, one would imagine Glen Sather would at least be probing the agents of unrestricted free agents Mike Ribiero, Steve Ott, and Derek Roy. If only for tire-kicking posture and nothing else.

   However, since 2005, the NHL and its business transactions (or there lack of) are governed by a hard salary cap... which was recently announced to be $69 million for the 2014-15 season. And that's the rub.

   How much money does Sather have to retain Kreider, J. Moore, Zucc, and Brassard? And how much money will be left for one last free agent pickup after that foursome is finagled? Hmmm... and that's the rub.

   Well... in the interest of an example... let's say Glen Sather signs the 4 RFA's to 1-year deals. Ideologically a 1-year deal for each of these players would be a lower cap hit than 2-years, which would be a lower cap hit than 3-years, and so forth. I understand 1-year deals for Zuccarello and Brassard would have perhaps a costly consequence next summer, as both would be unrestricted free agents July 1, 2015, and perhaps would cost even more to retain them past that point. I understand there is merit to giving J. Moore a 2-year bridge deal, as what was done for Derek Stepan and Carl Hagelin last summer. I understand giving Kreider a 5 or 6 year deal could be a wise investment for the future, as what was done with Ryan McDonagh last summer.

   I understand all of this; and I would be shocked if indeed all 4 RFA's were given 1 year contracts this summer. I'm not advocating it, I'm not defending it... I'm hypothetically illustrating it to see how much Sather could jam into the 2014-15 roster, regardless of its (negative) effect come 2016, 2017 and 2018. Let's get started shall we?

   Chris Kreider is an interesting case. He has been a valuable, relevant producer in the 3 postseasons he's played for Broadway. Despite never scoring a regular-season game winning goal in his career, Kreider is one of only 3 NHL players to have scored a game-winning-goal in each of the past 3 postseasons (along with Anze Kopitar and Alex Steen). It's difficult to speculate what an arbiter would award Kreider on a 1-year contract. I would suspect Kreider would sign a 2-year deal for roughly $2.5 million/year (which is more than what Hagelin got but less than Stepan). So... a 1-year deal, perhaps an even $2 million? I'll stick with that, though it's a generously low prediction.

   Mats Zuccarello would have to receive at least $4 million on a 1-year arbitration decision.

   As a comparable parallel, please recall Nik Zherdev's lone season in New York in 2008-2009. Nik scored 23-35-58 in 82 games, before being relegated to 3rd line and going scoreless in the 7-game heartbreak series to the Washington Capitals. The following August, Zherdev was awarded 1-year, $3.9 million in salary arbitration, which the New York Rangers declined. 

   Zuccarello, this past season, went 19-40-59 in 77 games. That's 1 more point than Zherdev in 5 less games. And of course, Zuccarello had a wonderful post-season, scoring 13 points in 25 games, as well as playing the most of any forward in a handful of Conference Final & Cup Final games.

   Thus... if Zherdev got $3.9, Zuccarello would have to get a little more, at the very least. $4 million, again perhaps a conservative estimate, will be my guess for this exercise.

   Derek Brassard is a center, and the historical trend has been a B+ center tends to rival the paycheck of most A- wingers. His qualifying offer was $3.7 million, which is certainly a reasonable figure to give him in a 1-year deal. Brassard averaged 0.56 points per game last season, which is precisely his average points-per-game over the course of his 7-year career. It wouldn't be absurd for Brassard to be awarded as much as Zuccarello in a 2014 salary arbitration, but we'll make it a tad less. Let's say 1-year $3.88 million.

   And finally, without the right of recourse of arbitration, we have John Moore. Moore can be offer sheeted, but otherwise is at the mercy of Glen Sather. Recall the contract holdouts of Brandon Dubinsky and Derek Stepan in years past... I'm not sure Moore has the goods to balk in the face of a holdout, but one never knows. What's a reasonable offer for both sides? Let's say $1.333 million for 1-year, since a 2-year $1.5 million/year contract would seem to sound accurate.

   So to review, in this hypothetical, we've re-signed...

   Chris Kreider ---------- $2.000

   Mats Zuccarello ------ $4.000

   Derick Brassard ------ $3.880

   John Moore ----------- $1.333

   + ======================

                                        $11.213 million

   Let's check out the CapGeek roster with these hypothetical contracts signed...

   This leaves only one or two roster spots open, most significantly the 3rd line. In the image, J.T. Miller is assumed to be 3rd line wing. To his credit he had a stint in December where he played 3rd line center, though he can play wing as well. Miller on 3rd line is interchangeable to center or wing for all intents and purposes.

   $1.95 million remaining for a 3rd liner, and perhaps a Taxi Squad 13th/14th forward to carry on an NHL club.

   Do you recruit one of the remaining UFA centers for 3rd line... Derek Roy, Michael Handzus, Steve Ott, or the much-troubled Mike Ribeiro? Or do you entrust Miller as the 3rd line center months before training camp, only to sign Dany Heatley, Daniel Alfreddson, Lee Stempniak, Devin Setoguchi or Dustin Penner to a 1-year 3rd line winger deal?

   Decisions, decisions...

   Reportedly the NY Rangers management is highly-touting of American Hockey League prospect centerman Oscar Lindberg. He enters 2015 on the final year of his entry-level contract, with the highly-economical cap hit of $675,000/year. Does Glen Sather (willingly or by victim of the salary cap) have two rookie centers on the roster come opening night? Lindberg turns 23 in October, had an impressive rookie year in the AHL (18-26-44 in 75 games), and won the Swedish Elite League equivalent of the Conn Smythe in 2012-13. Does he report for a sophomore season for the Hartford Wolf Pack, or does management dare assume he will make the team out of September's training camp?

   With one remaining roster spot amongst the top-12 forward positions... the decision to sign a winger or a center depends on Miller and Lindberg. Could either have a breakout season in the NHL next year while adequately handling 16+ minutes per game for a full season+playoff? If they have value to an NHL franchise in the future, but perhaps not much as far as a 2015 NHL playoff run is concerned, is it not prudent to trade prospects for current-talent? 

   And if prospects, or Sather's confidence nor expectations in his prospects, is absent... what would the trade be?

   Who knows? Probably a trade to improve the depth at the center position. Probably a trade which sent away pick(s) and/or prospect(s) for asset(s) which could contribute to an NHL club immediately. Probably a trade not meant to free up salary room in 2018, but to perhaps create more future salary cap situations in exchange for veteran NHL talent with an affordable contract.

   The infamous Gomez/McDonagh trade occurred June 30th, 2009. The blockbuster Dubinsky/Anisimov/Nash trade occurred July 20th, 2012. The Lindros acquisition occurred all the way back on August 20th, 2001. Glen Sather has made ginormous trades at all points of summer. A swap of great impact, for better or worse, could happen anytime all summer. It COULD happen, I don't believe there's a point in the summer where the window closes for big-time NHL trades.

   Or, quite plausibly, there could be no more trading done by Glen Sather. A great deal depends on the expected quality and quantity of talent, desperate to break into the NHL. It's already quite a conservative leap to automatically assume Miller and Fast both crack the roster out of training camp. Where struggling to make the big leagues ends, the advantage of having cheap contracts in a salary cap era begins...

   Of course, as I disclaimed earlier, it would be shocking if NY gave its four RFAs 1-year deals. The longer the deals of these four, the greater the cap hit goes up, and the less wiggle room NY has in an already claustrophobic situation. 

   Simply put, if the kids are old enough to go out and play, Sather is awarding some youngsters a latch key. Or at least a key opportunity. If not, however, and Sather has sub-confidence in the farm, he would be remiss to not make a trade of some kind with somebody or someone. I may sound like Captain Obvious, but at least know that decision largely relies in Sather's confidence in his prospects. 

   And by the way, despite a lack of [quality] draft picks the past few seasons, there are many forward candidates seeking a dark horse roster spot come training camp time. 

   They include:

   Forward - Ryan Haggerty (NCAA)

   Forward - Danny Kristo (AHL)

   Forward - Anthony Duclair (QMJHL)

   Forward - Chris McCarthy (NCAA)

   Forward - Ryan Bourque (AHL)

   Defenseman - Troy Bodie (NCAA)

   Defenseman - Petr Zamorsky (Czech Republic)

   Defenseman - Troy Donnay (OHL)

   Defenseman - Calle Andersson (Sweden)

   Defenseman - Conor Allen (AHL)

   In closing, New York drew its success from having the weapon of young, speedy wingers... which compensated for the standard or sub-standard depth at the center position. I'm not crazy about Brassard as a 2nd center, or the heavy assumption of Miller's certainty at the vital spot of 3rd line center (or wing). But, to be fair, the 2013-14 Rangers were unlike any squad of forwards we've seen. Literally. There was never a NY Rangers team that played such evenly-spread out minutes since Average Time On-Ice (ATOI) became a tracked stat in the late 90's. Not a single Rangers forward averaged 19 minutes per game. That's just the method of madness that could give a team a fighting chance at contending without the gift of elite, or even "high-end"centermen.

   At this point, all we can do is watch.

   We'll see how salary arbitration goes down.

10 points after NYR/PIT Game 2

Thoughts after NYR/PIT Game 2:

- Henrik Lundqvist elite. Has been for many years and still is

- Marc Staal gets flack for not scoring a whole lot, but his defensive game is exceptional

- Rick Nash will be the new Joe Thornton as long as he is a blatant no-show in the postseason. Yeah he's had concussion problems but if he's not playing injured right now, it's a damn shame

- Derek Stepan and Derick Brassard are fine centers, but they are not bonafide elite centers in hockey. NY needs a #1 center if they want to skate with the big dogs. Brad Richards is getting amnesty-bought-out this June, there's not a doubt in my mind

- Ryan McDonagh is playing hurt. I'd lay 5-to-1 he needs shoulder surgery as soon as the NYR playoffs are over

- Dan Girardi may be playing hurt as well, but as far as 1st Pair top-minute defensemen go, he's fringe. The fact he's a righty and not a lefty made him $ in the big contract he signed a few months ago

- NYR power play has been figured out by opposing coaching staffs (Philly, and now Pittsburgh). There's not much other explanation given their sour cold-streak the past 5 or 6 playoff games. Philly nor Pittsburgh has a defense 'capable' of shutting down the NYR power play as badly as it has been

- Martin St. Louis is simply not meshing in NY. Whatever the reasoning, he seems powerless skating with Richards. He will be back for his contract year next season, where Richards will (almost certainly) not

- The NYR miss a guy like Chris Kreider in this series. They will need all the shots and goals they can get, and Kreider was a wonderful addition to the offense this season, as he continues to recover from the April 1st wrist injury that has sidelined him indefinitely

- Marc Andre Fleury was tested in Game 1 but was not tested in Game 2. NYR do not have home ice, nor do they have the superior offense. What they do have, however, is superior goaltending. Lundqvist thrives under pressure. Fleury has historically struggled.

My Rangers Deadline Prediction

My Personal Deadline Prediction:

NY Rangers trade W Ryan Callahan, LD Justin Falk, ??? to Buffalo Sabres for W Matt Moulson & LD Henrik Tallinder
NY Rangers trade ??? to Phoenix Coyotes for W Radem Vrbata & RD Derek Morris

??? could include... F J.T. Miller, W Danny Kristo, W Jesper Fast, C Oscar Lindbergh, RD Connor Allen. 2014/2015 NHL Entry Draft Picks. Rights to prospects such as F Anthony Duclair, D Brady Skjei, or G Mac Skapski.

   The idea being: trade Ryan Callahan if he cannot be signed to a reasonable price. Buffalo is an attractive idea because a) they're out of the playoff race b) Callahan grew up in upstate New York and c) with the money they gave Ville Leino, Buffalo could end up giving Callahan his money on the open market anyway. Moulson & Tallinder, like Callahan, are also rentals set to become unrestricted free agents July 1st. Phoenix, a historic trade deadline patron of the NY Rangers, would also be sending two rental players for picks, prospects and/or current roster players.

   Acquiring this batch of rentals would be pricy, but the Lundqvist contract suggests Glen Sather be aggressive with competing for a Cup sooner than later as Lundqvist turned 32 years old last week. If he believes the offensive upgrades to the 2nd & 3rd lines, as well as the 2nd & 3rd defensive pairs, make the club a contender in the playoffs... I believe he will maneuver the market shamelessly if he honestly believes the roster in its current form is within striking distance of true contention.

   So, I predict, he does and imports hired offensive guns.

   By the way, this would be the 2nd time where Phoniex would have dealt Derek Morris to the Rangers at the day of a trade deadline ;-P