1) The Rangers have about $6.75 million in cap space to sign Derek Stepan.
Etem, Lindberg & Miller will gain the right to salary arbitration after their current contracts expire by playing in 10+ games next season. So we make the assumption it will happen.
While the Rangers may actually have only 21 or 22 roster spots come October 1st, the idea is to represent a 14th forward (designated at Jayson Megna in the graph,but could easily be Luke Adam, Brian Gibbons, or Matt Lindblad; all of whom have identical contracts). Because if a team is to pack a roster to the absolute salary cap ceiling, as the Rangers are likely to do, you want to hedge against a string of handcuffing injuries.
Yes, if a player is hurt for a long stretch of time, he may be placed on Long-Term-Injured-Reserve… in which case the team would receive compensatory cap space to replace the injured athlete’s roster spot. But injuries only lasting a few days or weeks would not qualify, and thus the team would be expected to replace the injure player’s manpower WITHOUT any cap relief.
Thus, for the sake of this reality, we submit any NHL team’s cap situation based on it carrying 23 players. And like we said, Megna’s assumption as the 14th forward would have identical cap implications as that of Adam, Gibbons or Lindblad. Or, if homegrown AHL’ers Marek Hrivik ($575,000 cap hit) or Ryan Bourque ($562,500 cap hit) earn the title of 14th forward in training camp, then the Rangers would have an insignificant $25,000 to $37,500 extra in cap space than demonstrated in the above image.
Remember, a team’s salary cap cost is a rolling, cumulative total. Which means if a team is $1 million below the salary cap for the first half of the season, it earns the right to go $1 million above the cap for the second half. This is why the now-defunct Capgeek infamously and brilliantly measured a team’s ‘future cap space’ for the upcoming trade deadline in a given season; a team $1 million under the salary cap in November or December could be projected to have much more cap room come February or March.
Thus if the Rangers pack the roster to the absolute cap ceiling in aggregate of 23 players come October 1st; by luckily and hopefully staying healthy, the team could only carry 21 or 22 players for as much time as possible, which would allow the same group of 23 players to have considerably more cap space at a given time later down the season.
In any event, barring an August or September trade, the Rangers must re-sign Stepan to something below $6.75 million.
2) Does Tanner Glass return to Broadway next season?
The fact that Glass was not jettisoned from the roster in June or July suggests that there is a very likely chance of his continued role on the team. However, we continue to insinuate that Glass is the most expendable asset on the roster, should the team need even a few hundred thousand more dollars in cap space going forward.
We’ve posted a tongue-in-cheek conspiracy theory, half-seriously suggesting the idea that a trade to dump Glass for cap space is already lined up, but his presence on the roster during Stepan negotiations serves a fruitful purpose as to keep Stepan’s asking price (and realistic expectations) lower than they would were Glass be already exiled, and New York had more available cap space.
Put it like this: if Glass were traded away in June or July, and his exiled roster spot were theoretically replaced by Adam, Gibbons, Lindblad, Hrivik or Bourque… the Rangers would have approximately $7.6 million in cap space (instead of their current $6.75 million). Stepan’s camp could, in turn, more reasonably demand a cap hit north of $7 million, without the Rangers camp pointing to a chart of their salary cap space and saying ‘we simply don’t have that liquidity available.’
Aside from this cute idea, there’s not much value to Glass and his $1.45 million cap hit remaining on a roster so hard-pressed for cap space.
Yes, Glass is the only fighter/goon on the current roster. But in the modern NHL, where incoming players are required to have visors and penalized for removing helmets in a bout of fistacuffs… the hard truth remains that the ability to fight is a dying necessity for an NHL team to have. It may sell tickets or accumulate hits on YouTube, but it seems less and less a vital ingredient to Stanley Cup contenders.
Consider this:
If the Rangers traded away Glass, and signed a goon for the league-minimum $575,000/year… it would result in $875,000 in gained NYR cap space.
If the Rangers buried Glass in the minor leagues, as they have done with Wade Redden, Aaron Asham & Darrol Powe… and replaced Glass’ roster spot with a $575,000/year goon of similar-or-equal contribution… it would still result in $350,000 gained in NYR cap space.
There’s very little argument for Glass to remain a Ranger next season, even if one concludes having a scrapper on the team is indeed required.
3) How could NY trade Glass when he has such a relatively high cap hit compared to his relatively low worth?
No, Glass won’t have much trade value on the swap market. This is true.
But his front-loaded contract, nearing its back end of existence, provides some inherent value in of itself: Once Glass receives his 2015 signing bonus ($450,000) sometime between July 1 and October 1 (depending on how its structured in his contract)… for the remaining 21 months of his contract will feature something very attractive to low-market teams: he will be getting $1.45 in cap hit for every $1 actually paid.
You know why the Arizona Coyotes acquired Chris Pronger’s fossilized contract, with no intent to put him on LTIR in September? Because for only $575,000 of actual salary, they receive $4,941,429 in salary cap credit, which helps the financially-challenged team reach the NHL cap floor at a massive discount. The same logic applies to why the Florida Panthers acquired the contract of Marc Savard ($575,000 in actual cost for $4,027,143 in cap credit).
While Glass is surely not such a bargain for that scheme, his $1.45-for-$1 cap-credit-for-actual-salary advantage remains there. As of right now, the teams with the lowest salaries are The NJ Devils, Nashville Predators & Anaheim Ducks. All are technically above the cap floor, but still may be attracted to the scheme of Glass’ contract rather than its actual skill-on-the-pill merits.
Of course, the Rangers could always ‘pay’ a team to take Glass. While trading Glass and a 6th round draft pick for a team’s 7th round draft pick is hardly fruitful, something along those lines remains practical and possible.
4) How Much will Derek Stepan receive?
This has been the question, and we’ve poked around at it since last winter.
Here’s the scoop:
Since Stepan is the one who filed for arbitration, the Rangers choose whether the hearing will determine a binding 1-year or 2-year award. Stepan would be a restricted free agent once more in the event of a 1-year award (where the Rangers could not negotiate a long-term deal with him until January 1st, 2016). Or, Stepan would be an unrestricted free agent upon contract expiration should the Rangers opt for a 2-year award.
It’s tough to tell, but we surmise Stepan’s cost to scale from $6 million to $7 million per year, steadily increasing as the length of a deal (1 year to 8 years) increases as well. 1-year for $6 million all the way to 8-years for $7 million/year would be our guess. Of course, its speculative, and the insertion of potential job security (No-Trade-Clause and/or No-Movement-Clause) would skew any figurative scale.
Ryan O’Reilly’s 2-year contract signed last summer for $6 million/year is a pretty direct comparable to that of what Stepan’s objective worth could be. It can be used as evidence in a potential arbitration hearing, because O’Reilly signed it when he was at the same point in his contractual career as Stepan is now, unlike the contract he more recently signed with Buffalo, where he was an impending unrestricted free agent.
Subject to change, or flat out being totally inaccurate, we’d suggest Stepan’s relative worth to signing a deal (or being awarded one in arbitration) is something like:
1 year - $6,000,000 / year
2 year - $6,150,000 / year
3 year - $6,333,333 / year
4 year - $6,500,000 / year
5 year - $6,700,000 / year
6 year - $6,900,000 / year
7 year - $7,000,000 / year
8 year - $7,050,000 / year
If this scale is anything resembling the truth, then the Rangers could re-sign Stepan to anything 5 years or under, and theoretically be able to sit back and stand pat on the current roster without further need to tweak it. Should the Rangers & Stepan amicably hash out a deal for 6, 7 or 8 years… then trading Glass (or some asset carrying relevant cap space) would become imperative. Here is a more elaborate dive into how much Stepan may actually be worth according to Ryan Lambert of Yahoo! Sports
5) Assuming Stepan is re-signed, how does the Rangers’ offense look for next season?
Again, highly speculative, but we did some work projecting how many goals each contracted Ranger could be expected to produce for the 2015-16 season. Of course individual injuries or issues can wildly skew these projections, but we figure a sum of approximately 222 goals is what to expect.
If this is the case, that 222 goals represents 17th most in the 2014-15 NHL, 1 less than the Winnipeg Jets but 2 more than the Chicago Blackhawks.
As the Rangers Top-6 defense, and starting goaltender, will be the same next season as it was last season… Should the Rangers repeat the figure of 187 goals allowed (which was 3rd least in the NHL behind Montreal & Chicago), that’s a projected goal differential of +35. It would be a dramatic decrease in the Rangers’ league-leading +60 of last season, but still good enough to be 6th highest in the NHL, comparing to 2014-15 stats.
Again, this is highly speculative, so take it with a grain of margin-for-error salt.
Conclusion
Once the Rangers, be it via mutual agreement or arbitration result, have locked up Stepan’s services for at least another season… the team looks to remain a playoff-bound group of players, even if repeating an NHL Presidential Trophy seems unlikely. Again, while trading pieces like Glass or Dylan McIlrath may indeed occur between now and opening night, one should assume a quiet stretch of time of the Rangers’ offseason once Stepan drama comes to an end. Expect a boring 4-6 weeks in Rangerstown leading up to the dawn of the regular season. The temporary uncertainty revolving around Stepan's inevitable new contract aside, there's no reason to suspect the NY Rangers will be anything but a competitive NHL team next season.
Do the Rangers have much salary cap room to pursue free agents?
No, they do not.
(Note: If Brady Skjei is NOT ready for the NHL roster, he can remain in Hartford (AHL), and a $925k 7th defenseman can be signed in free agency)
Looking over the NY Rangers salaries (estimates of Restricted Free Agents are in purple), the Rangers really only have a few million at most to spend on a few depth forwards. Unless they trade a major contract, which doesn’t seem terribly likely… this offseason will be quiet for Rangers fans. Which, honestly, isn’t a bad thing as this summer’s free agent class seems a bit stale compared to previous summers.
Will the Rangers keep Kevin Hayes at [3rd line] center, or revert him back to his natural position of winger?
We’re not sure, but probably not.
Hayes struggled as center in the postseason, often losing his minutes under Stepan & Brassard to that of 4th center Dominic Moore. In fact, during the regular season, Kevin Hayes finished DEAD LAST in league-wide face-off percentage (minimum 100 face-offs taken) sporting a shameful 36.3%. While Hayes, 23, finished 7th in rookie-of-the-year (Calder Trophy) voting… it seems being a centerman is not his forte.
Viable options?
Oscar Lindberg
A restricted free agent (without arbitration rights) with a qualifying offer of $709,000… we’d estimate a 1-year deal worth about $725,000 or a 2-year deal worth $800,000. Lindberg played heavy minutes (as a center) in Hartford last year, and all indications point towards a serious chance at making the NHL roster in October. Can he be trusted with 3rd line minutes? Would having a couple of youngsters like Hayes & Lindberg on the 3rd line be good enough for a team concerned with immediate contention? If the Rangers don’t pursue any free agent centers this summer, it’s a good bet they’ll be relying on Lindberg from the getgo.
Riley Nash
A somewhat surprising unrestricted free agent, as the Carolina Hurricanes did not offer the 26-year-old center a qualifying offer this week, making him (somewhat surprisingly) available to the open market. Nash scored 25 points in 68 games last season, winning 50.9% of his 958 face-offs. While there’s a very good chance Nash will receive offers from other teams in excess of $1 million/year (which is more than the Rangers could realistically offer), Nash seems like one of the most attractive options for a 3rd center. He averaged 16:19 minutes per game last season, and was one of Carolina’s top penalty killers, averaging 1:41 kill time per contest. A long shot, but certainly an attractive idea for Broadway to, at the very least, investigate.
Mark Arcobello
Another surprising non-qualification was that of Arizona not tendering Arcobello, who played 77 games for 4 different teams last season. Arcobello, 27, won 50.2% of his 939 face-offs overall last year, while averaging just under 15 minutes per game, perfect for a 3rd line center’s role. The combination of bouncing around the league AND not being offered a mere $630,000 minimum qualifying offer may raise flags as to his ability in the league. Yet if his price is that low, he may be just the type of reclamation project Glen Sather could gamble on, sporting a low-risk low-reward offering.
Cody Hodgson
An unrestricted free agent who was just recently bought out by the revamping Buffalo Sabres. Hodgson, drafted 10th overall 7 years ago, had an impactful rookie year with the Vancouver Canucks before getting traded to Buffalo in 2012. While his 2012-13 & 2013-14 seasons in Buffalo were acceptable (78 points in 150 games)… his 2014-15 season was a complete abomination. Not unlike the Sabres overall team performance, he scored an abysmally few amount of goals (6 goals in 1,002 minutes), leading to his recent contract buyout.
Should Hodgson be in a position to sign for less than $1 million/year (which seems likely), the Rangers could be an interested suitor. Additionally, if Hodgson signs for under $1 million/year and turns out to be an undesirable forward, he can be buried into the minors without effecting the Rangers cap hit with a burial fee. Or, if Lindberg is the go-to 3rd center, Hodgson’s use as a taxi squad extra forward seems like an imaginable fit.
Brad Richards
An unrestricted free agent coming off a Cup-clinching campaign, Richards is one of the 28 eligible UFA skaters able to sign a performance bonus loaded contract. While his net worth will be certainly over $1 million/year (he signed for double that last summer)… the Rangers could feasibly acquire his services with a 1-year contract for $1 million or less in base pay (cap hit), but offer anywhere from $1 million to $4 million in (easily attainable) bonuses. We wrote about the NHL cap-crunch likely forcing teams to rely on performance-bonuses to accommodate the salary cap ceiling this summer, and a returning Richards could be an ideal specimen for the Rangers. However his age, and his potential stamina (he’s played 206 NHL games since October 2013) could raise concerns. Unlike other candidates we’re examining, Richards’ age means if he signs, his cap hit cannot be removed from the Rangers’ book via burial. With so little cap space, this could render the potential risk more than potential reward (unlike small-contract signings under the age of 35 who CAN be buried).
Stephen Weiss
Another UFA via buyout, Weiss’s career has been in a tailspin since his time with the Florida Panthers where he notched 394 points in 654 games from ages 18 to 30. After a season-ending injury in 2013, he never returned to his calibre after signing with the Detroit Red Wings that following summer. His injury problems have lingered, and questions of his remaining role in the NHL are rampant. Weiss, 32, would likely sign a relatively cheap 1-year deal with a team, should any team want him, to try and regain his previous form. Unlike expectations in Florida & Detroit, Weiss would clearly be expected to play sheltered minutes, likely playing between youngsters J.T. Miller, Emerson Etem, Jesper Fast and/or Kevin Hayes.
Do the Rangers need to pursue a 3rd-or-4th-line forward specializing in penalty killing to fill Carl Haglein’s departure?
This is an interesting question… here’s why:
Hagelin (1:57 per game) was the Rangers’ premier winger to kill penalties, ranking just below Dominic Moore (2:07 per game) in shorthanded situations. Broadway finished 3rd in the East (and 6th in the league) in penalty killing, due in great part to Hagelin’s speedy defensive prowess. Etem, whom Hagelin was traded for last weekend, only averaged 0:27 of kill time per game. In other words, all else equal, that’s a full 90 seconds per game of “lost” kill time amongst forwards heading into July.
To exacerbate this deficit: we have to seriously wonder if Moore, who turns 35 next month, can sustain over 2 minutes per game effectively, let alone call on him to increase his kill time any additional time. So the case may very well be the Rangers needing to replace as much as 2 full minutes from forwards.
Does Broadway have options?
Enter: Jesper Fast, current restricted free agent whom cemented his regularity on the roster as a full-time NHL’er last season. Fast marveled in defensive roles, averaging 1:06 penalty killing time per game. And at the ripe age of 23, Fast is an ideal candidate to (realistically) play more penalty kills without causing detriment to the team.
So let’s say Fast’s PK time-per-game jumps a full minute (from 1:06 to 2:06, which would be 1 second less than that of Moore’s).
That still leaves (perhaps) a full 60 seconds of PK time per game to be sourced from somewhere.
Stepan & Nash averaged 1:35 & 1:20 per game respectively. Considering both play top minutes during even strength as well as power play, it seems unlikely they could have much more to give.
Tanner Glass played 1:01 per game, and could feasibly have his time increased in this capacity. But a full minute more? Doubtful.
This leaves Hayes (0:26), Zuccarello (0:22) & Brassard (0:14) as other PK’ers… of which are also unlikely to make effective jumps.
So the real question is: how much will the current Rangers supplement Hagelin’s departure & Moore’s aging downslope?
If the Rangers believe the deficit can be reduced to only 30 seconds of time missing, it won’t be a huge priority to seek assistance on the market. Conversely, if the Rangers are counting on a depth signing to make a relevant impact… the names of potential 3rd line centers we mentioned above may be pursued in order of PK ability. (Riley Nash with perhaps the most valuable PK skill set, playing 1:41 per game… and Brad Richards with the least valuable PK skill set, logging only 1 second on the kill per game).
Conclusion
These 3 questions will be answered, one way or another, this summer. If Broadway makes a trade, say an exodus of Kevin Klein ($2.9 million per year cap hit) or Tanner Glass ($1.45 million per year cap hit)... that should indicate a potential change in cap space, let alone whatever the return should indicate. If the Rangers pursue a free agent center, it could indicate an insurance policy should Oscar Lindberg not be able to handle 3rd line minutes in October (though it would definitely indicate intent to place Hayes back on the wing). And finally, the franchise's faith in stepping up its penalty-killing depth amongst forwards (again, hedging against Lindberg's hit-or-miss role) should tell us how badly it views Hagelin's absence for shorthanded scenarios.
Personally, I suspect a quiet off-season for New York, without any more trades or "big" names entering our headlines. However, given the topics we've discussed, there'll major team logic to infer from even the depthiest of depth signings.
NHL General Managers, NHL players, their agents, and the entire hockey blogosphere have learned the 2015-16 salary cap will be $71.4 million. If you’re viewing this blog, then chances are you’re at least a tad bit curious as to the obvious question: How will this affect the New York Rangers?
The first priority remains the same as our previous weeks of articles: the Rangers must reduce their payroll this summer in order to comply by October 1st.
Here’s a look at the NY Rangers cap payroll for the 2015-16 season:
The contracts in purple indicate that player is a Restricted Free Agent this summer, and the figure in purple is the minimally realistic prediction as to what they could sign for on a 1-year deal.
The contracts in grey indicate that player’s contract is on the books, thus NOT a free agent.
The contracts in blue indicate the 2015-16 NHL minimum age as a theoretical cap hit for whatever depth players the Rangers sign this summer. In this instance, the extra skaters are all conservatively presumed to have minimum-wage ($575k/yr) deals.
Here we see the team looks to be a few million short of being cap-compliant. And this graph represents best-case scenarios for the Restricted Free Agents re-signing at the realistically cheapest 1-year contracts.
At best, the Rangers are a little less than $2 million over the salary cap this summer, in our extremely conservative estimations.
So where to cut? Hmmm…
CAM TALBOT
Exporting Talbot in a trade, and ultimately replacing him with a lesser salary, is the easiest (and as of late, trendiest) means to reduce overall payroll.Trading Talbot away, and ultimately replacing him with that of a, say, $645,000/year goalie… would be a $800,000 reduction on the team’s books.
DEREK STEPAN
In a 1-year contract, we predict Stepan to sign for no less than $6 million.
A multi-year contract would likely range from $6 mil to $7 mil.
The most similar comparable to ascertaining Stepan’s theoretical value this summer is that of Ryan O’Reilly in Colorado… O’Reilly signed a 2-year $12 million contract shortly before an arbitration hearing was scheduled.
Our prediction for Stepan’s year-to-year rate is something like:
1 years: $6.000000 / year ($06,000,000)
2 years: $6.200000 / year ($12,400,000)
3 years: $6.333333 / year ($17,999,999)
4 years: $6.500000 / year ($26,000,000)
5 years: $6.700000 / year ($33,500,000)
6 years: $6.900000 / year ($41,400,000)
7 years: $7.142857 / year ($49,999,999)
8 years: $7.125000 / year ($57,000,000)
Stepan is an extremely vital asset for Broadway, serving as their wonderfully productive 1st Line Center. Unless traded within the window, there’s two more seasons of Derek to play as a New York Ranger before entering Unrestricted Free Agency.
Sather could take the 1-year discount, delaying the probable payday contract to Stepan until next summer… although Stepan’s pricetag could easily (and likely) be higher during this time next summer.
Let’s hold off on figuring a course-of-action for signing Stepan until we can appreciate what assets on the team may be more expendable than the team’s #1 center.
CARL HAGELIN
With Restricted Free Agency, Hagelin may be headed to NHL salary arbitration next month, if he and his team cannot hash out an amicable agreement beforehand.
Parallel to last summer’s arbitration decision for that of Vladimir Sobotka (in St. Louis)… we feel a 1-year $2.8 million contract is roughly what Hagelin could/should/would be awarded.
Should the Rangers and Hagelin agree long-term? Our prediction for Hagelin’s year-to-year rate is something like:
1 years: $2,800,000 / year ($02,800,000)
2 years: $3,000,000 / year ($06,000,000)
3 years: $3,333,333 / year ($09,999,999)
4 years: $3,500,000 / year ($14,000,000)
5 years: $3,600,000 / year ($18,000,000)
6 years: $3,750,000 / year ($22,500,000)
7 years: $3,642,857 / year ($24,499,999)
8 years: $3,625,000 / year ($29,000,000)
STEPAN vs HAGELIN?
This duo represent the the lone pair of NYR Restricted Free Agents to a) have the right of salary arbitration, b) make the most money of any of the other RFA’s, and c) be only two years removed from Unrestricted Free Agency.
WHICH DESERVES A LONG-TERM DEAL MORE?
The answer, almost irrefutably, is Stepan. He is a #1 center, is a coveted asset to any NHL franchise. A cornerstone center, at the young age of 25, is expected to make $6 or $7 million on a long-term contract.
As for Hagelin? Two things to note when pondering his gravity of Broadway’s cap structure:
A) Hagelin is a 3rd line winger, with the upside attribute of being a phenomenal penalty killer.
B) Perhaps Hagelin’s most valuable attribute to his contribution to an NHL team is his speed. Yet Hagelin, who turns 27 years old in August, will likely be losing pepper off his footwork fastball.
In other words, what do you think is the easiest roster change to “correct or “replace” for cheaper money? A $6 million center who plays 19 minutes per game, or a $2.8 million winger who plays 15 minutes per game?
JESPER FAST (24), J.T. MILLER (23) & OSCAR LINDBERG (24)
All three forwards are Restricted Free Agents without the right to salary arbitration
We predict Miller’s 1-year extension rate is $50,000 more expensive than Fast’s, despite Miller’s minimum qualifying offer being $100,000 greater than that of Miller’s
Lindberg, who had a wonderful season in the American Hockey League last season, is fully expected to make the jump to the NHL next year. His qualifying offer is few thousand less than his projected 1-year minimum cost of $725,000
With all the trade rumors surround Cam Talbot, why don’t we hear too much about any of these assets being included in a packaged trade?
Because with the trio reasonably projected to make less than $1 million/year on respective 1-year deals… it does not seem an aspect where Broadway can be in a position to “cut the fat.” In other words, what forwards could be returned in a trade which would replace the roles of Fast/Miller/Lindberg while accounting for lesser money?
It seems highly unlikely.
So…
Let’s assume Cam Talbot is traded somewhere for draft pick(s) and/or prospect(s). And let’s also assume that the Rangers replace his role as Backup Goalie with an Unrestricted Free Agent signing this summer, of whom signs for 1-yr $575,000 (the NHL minimum wage).
How does this change things?
So even if all four RFA’s are signed for the most realistically stingy 1-year contracts… and even if Talbot is traded and replaced with a goalie of minimal cost… we see the team remains $275,000 over the cap.
Not to mention, having the 21st, 22nd & 23rd roster spots all at the NHL minimum wage is a stretch for this example as well.
So…?
Talbot cannot be the only Ranger to be exported this offseason.
There must be at least one other NY Ranger to be exiled, and replaced with a cheaper substitute, for the team to render itself cap compliant.
Before we finish, let’s just remind ourselves of which NY Rangers have No-Trade and/or No-move Clauses this summer, making them the peskiest players to attempt to move?
So while there is a lot of salary cap meat-on-the-bone with this list of NY Rangers… it would seem especially cumbersome to orchestrate a trade involving any one of them. Particularly packaging someone in a Talbot trade to either Edmonton or Buffalo, where one of these players’ approval of such a trade would seem even less likely.
So…
What about the Rangers under contract with the highest cap hits whom are without any NM or NT clauses?
What can we conclude?
As we’ve proposed multiple times on this blog, the seemingly most “replaceable” players to dump are Carl Hagelin and/or Kevin Klein.
Both have theoretical salary caps just south of $3 million, while their respective roles are that of 3rd line wing & 3rd pair defense.
McDonagh’s cap hit of $4.7 million is a bargain, considering the Captain’s role on the team.
Stepan, Kreider & Yandle are all being paid “fairly”, given their respective roles (and Power Play capability).
Any trade involving Kreider, McDonagh, Stepan, and/or Yandle would be as big a summer surprise as it is (at the moment) highly unlikely.
Thus, now we see why Kevin Klein & Carl Hagelin have been the most frequent throw-in Rangers skaters mumbled amidst the weeks of Talbot trade rumors. Neither player is a toxic asset (actually both have done very well as Rangers, and would not be traded due to poor performance or sour reputation). Yet when looking for a soul to shed some salary, Hagelin & Klein are the “likeliest” suitors.
So we will examine two different scenarios:
SCENARIO A:
Trade Cam Talbot & Kevin Klein for draft pick(s) and/or prospect(s)
Sign Derek Stepan to a long-term deal worth $6.6 mil/yr [which we predict would be a four or five year deal]
Sign Carl Hagelin to a 1-year, $2.8 mil deal
Sign J.T. Miller to a 2-year, $1.2 mil/yr deal
Sign Jesper Fast to a 2-year, $975k/yr deal
Sign Oscar Lindberg to a 2-year, $800k/yr deal
Sign a 7th D, such as Matt Hunwick, to a 2-year, $875k/yr deal
Assume Brady Skjei will be NHL-ready for duties on the Broadway’s 3rd defensive pair
Sign a backup goalie to a 1-year, $700k deal ($125k more than the league minimum)
Sign a 13th “spare” forward to 1-year, $675k deal ($100k more than the league minimum)
Sign a 14th “spare” forward to a 1-year, $650k deal ($75k more than the league minimum)
Interestingly enough, we assume if Klein is moved, that the services of Matt Hunwick (hypothetically signed for a 2-year, $875k contract) and rookie Brady Skjei will be enough “in-house” promotion to replace Klein’s role.
To do this, the Rangers must accommodate a seven defensemen with only two Right-handed pointmen. If this is the case, why don’t we slide McDonagh to the right point? He played well at the 2014 Winter Olympics in the off-hand position of RD.
This also frees up enough cap space to sign RFA’s Fast, Lindberg, Miller & Stepan to multi-year “bridge” deals.
We can also beef up the 2nd goalie, as well as 13th & 14th “spare” forwards respective cap hits, to a few notches above the league minimum.
Scenario A brings us to a 23-man roster snugly beneath the ceiling with $50,000 in cap space.
- Talbot is replaced by a free agent for approximately half of Talbot's 2015-16 salary
- Klein is replaced by a combination of Skjei & Hunwick
- Martin St. Louis is replaced by the promotion of Oscar Lindberg
- James Sheppard & Chris Mueller are replaced by a $675k free agent & $650k free agent respectively
SCENARIO B:
Trade Cam Talbot & Carl Hagelin for draft pick(s) and/or prospect(s)
Sign Derek Stepan to a 1-year contract
Sign J.T. Miller to a 2-year, $1.25 mil/yr deal
Sign Jesper Fast to a 2-year, $975k/yr deal
Sign Oscar Lindberg to a 2-year, $800k/yr deal
Sign a 7th defenseman to a 1-year, $800k deal
Sign a backup goalie to a 1-year, $725k deal ($125k more than the league minimum)
Sign a 13th “spare” forward to 1-year, $675k deal ($100k more than the league minimum)
Sign a 14th “spare” forward to a 1-year, $600k deal ($25k more than the league minimum)
- Talbot is replaced by a free agent for approximately half of Talbot's 2015-16 salary
- Hagelin is theoretically replaced by Fast
- Hayes switches to wing, while his 3rd center roster spot is replaced by a $1.5 million free agent
- Martin St. Louis is replaced by the promotion of Oscar Lindberg
- James Sheppard & Chris Mueller are replaced by a $675k free agent & $600k free agent respectively
- Matt Hunwick is either brought back for, or replaced by, a $800k free agent defenseman
Scenario B brings us to a 23-man roster snugly beneath the ceiling with $25,000 in cap space.
*Important Note: While the sum of $1.5 million for pursuing a 3rd line winger or defenseman seems awfully underwhelming, the NY Rangers will have as much as $2,505,000 available in performance bonuses to dish out this summer while remaining below the bonus cushion. Should the Rangers wish to "gamble," and assume Kevin Hayes will not activate his maximum potential bonus amount of $2.85 million, the Rangers could theoretically dish out $3 or $4 million in bonuses this summer and still not break the cushion. Thus, a $1.5 million 3rd line forward could actually be compensated $2.5 - $4.5 million in cap-haven performance bonuses, attracting the highest quality of forwards willing to sign on for a 3rd line role.
Conclusion
These two scenarios seem to be the likeliest ones for a vague picture of the Rangers' team come October. Neither involve trades which tinker with the nucleus of role players pivotal to the team's chances at a Stanley Cup. Simply put: Hagelin, Klein & Talbot will be missed, but not irreplaceably so.
There's no reason to think a trade involving Lundqvist, Nash, McDonagh, Staal or Girardi will take place this summer. If not for the unlikely possibility of any of these players waiving there NMC/NTC's, the simple fact that Scenarios A & B demonstrate there should be ZERO pressure at all for Glen Sather to make such a deal.
Yes, the Rangers need to cut salary. Aptly put, the roster will require metaphorical off-season surgery. Yet while the deportation and replacement of Hagelin, Klein and/or Talbot represent minor surgeries like wisdom teeth removal or laser-eye... why in the world would Broadway go a few steps further and voluntarily engage in open-heart surgery by way of dealing Lundqvist, Nash, Stepan, McDonagh, Staal or Girardi?
This is not a team looking to make huge adjustments after a largely disappointing 2014-15 season. The team won the President's Trophy, was a viable threat until the end, and was 20 minutes away from their 2nd consecutive Stanley Cup Final. Unlike teams like Colorado, Dallas or Toronto... this is not a team with political carte blanche to rewire all aspects of the roster.
This is a team that should be considerably more apt to trim around the edges than rebuild its central configuration.
It doesn't make much sense for the Rangers to move the big pieces... at least not quite yet.
This article is cut up into two halves: Needs & Values.
The “Needs” section will discuss what roster needs Broadway will have this summer, and for next season, and how to digest these objectives into brainstormed solutions. In other words, ‘needs’ are a synonym for ‘how to correct roster deficiencies.’
The “Values” section will take our conclusions in the “Needs” prologue and assign a measurement of ‘value’ to each asset on the roster. How valuable is Martin St. Louis or Matt Hunwick to the 2015-16 roster? We’ll elaborate on each individual as best we can.
Needs
The 2014-15 New York Rangers were great, but not great enough. In the hours after elimination from the Eastern Conference Finals, countless fans have taken to social media to give their two cents on “blaming” or “assigning fault” to various aspects of the team.
Correct, most NHL teams have pieces that are banged up and battered, somewhat nullifying the advantages or disadvantages of skaters playing through pain. The thing is this: ultimately, some teams will be more injured than others, in varying degrees of severity-of-injury, as well as degree-of-skill overall afflicted with ware-and-tare.
I think the clearer, more important argument to have is about depth. Roster depth. As in “how many players outside of your Top-20 roster spots can you reliably inject into vital postseason games without the risk outweighing the reward?” Because while comparing hidden, discreet, nearly immeasurable baskets of comparative team injuries is virtually impossible… examining a franchises’s depth, which is the key to battling through injuries in the first place, is much more practical place to examine.
So...
Why didn’t this team win the Cup? Outside the small consideration of injuries (being worse than Tampa’s?) and sheer variance (luck)… The NY Rangers’ lack of roster depth ultimately prevented them from overcoming Tampa’s tenacious adversity. If you don't believe it, just look at Game 7: New York burned a roster spot on the 4th line so Hunwick could only play 4:17 in the 1st period while McDonagh received a cortisone shot? Only then to have a healthy, rested Hunwick not play another shift upon McDonagh's return, rendering Game 7 basically a 17-skater Broadway lineup?
That doesn't sound like much faith in the depth of your defenseman. Either that, or a big error on the part of the caching staff... But since I'm the first to assume Alain Vigneault knows what he's doing, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and place the blame on (lack of) roster depth.
Comparing Broadway’s Top-20 roster (12 forwards, 6 defensemen, 2 goalies) to the rest of the league, it was superb. Tit-for-tat, the cream of the roster was exquisite, and very much deserving of their regular season success.
But what about the Top-22? In this case, that’s comparing Matt Hunwick and James Sheppard as the “extra skaters” compared to the rest of the league’s standby fill-ins. The Rangers’ Top-22 still probably fared favorably in contrast to the rest of the league (although probably even less so against Anaheim, Chicago or Tampa).
From the 23rd roster spot onwards? Not so much.
It’s difficult to sit broken-boned McDonagh and Staal because they comprise so much of New York’s effective defensive core. But who would you rather have, those two performing far less than 100%… or a 3rd pair of Mike Kostka & Matt Hunwick at 100%? Yeah… the Rangers were a defensive injury away from dressing Mike Kostka (or Conor Allen, maybe).
Remember in the 2013 NHL Playoffs, where the injuries to Marc Staal & Anton Stralman forced John Tortorella to play Michael Del Zotto & Roman Hamrlik? As if the 5-game-defeat to Boston was at all the coach’s fault… it was the General Manager (Glen Sather), as putting a lot of eggs in not a lot of baskets can prove fatal should a few of the Top-6 defensemen baskets incur a concussion, sprain or broken bone.
In fact, the Boston Bruins of that postseason, who went on to lose the Stanley Cup in 6 games to Chicago, actually used 9 different defensemen during the 22-game run! NINE. DEFENSEMEN. While they failed to capture it all, the team demonstrated the amazing ability to not be set aside by injuries, and having competent depth in the 23rd, 24th, 25th & 26th roster spots, should the rainy days come.
They did, and Boston nearly weathered the storm.
The Rangers, this spring? Decidedly less the ability to seek refuge in their 8th or 9th defensemen in the franchise arsenal (I thought Matt Hunwick was a competent 7th D). The Blueshirts needed short & sweet series, playing as little needed time and encountering as few injuries as possible, to make a run of it. Unfortunately, Washington and Tampa provided an exhausting series, and ultimately ate away at the team’s thinner stamina.
So… I think we can certainly agree the big “need” is improving depth. Molding the roster into something less top-20 concentrated, into something more designed to EXPECT a few injuries, and be able to cope accordingly. Surely that’s at least a fair assessment, eh?
The other side of the coin is: the team overall proved to be an honest contender, even if the 2015 postseason was indeed a futile run of it. So, while improving depth is indeed a logical diagnosis… keeping the team somewhat intact, wherever possible, would seem to be for the most part an imperative maxim to keep in mind.
No, there will be no Canyon of Heroes parade in the Big Apple this summer. But it wasn’t exactly the Toronto Maple Leafs or Dallas Stars, either. The team met expectations up until the last week of May. There’s more positivity in that, despite the emotional negativity of Game 7 heartbreak the past 72 hours.
To conclude: an increase in depth is perhaps the chief need for the organization, yet there should be a rejection of any “pressure” to blow up the roster and make sweeping changes, unless absolutely needed or genuinely fitting. Let’s try to walk that subjective line, shall we?
Values:
Once again, here’s a look at next year’s Top-20 roster. Let’s sift through the pieces, shall we?
Derek Stepan:
Stepan is set to become a restricted free agent with arbitration rights. His qualifying offer is $3.85 million, but it will be easily tendered by NYR, and easily rejected by Stepan. The fact is Stepan is likely due a substantial payraise, one way or the other, as providing to be the #1 center on the team. In fact, Stepan was the only Rangers forward to play more than 18 minutes per game (18:11) in the regular season, and the only forward to play over 19 minutes per game (19:31) in the playoffs.
He ranked 2nd among forwards in total PP time on ice, 2nd among forwards in ES time on ice, and 3rd among forwards in total PK time during the postseason. Like it or not, Stepan is an intricate ingredient in the Rangers rosters, and any idea of trading him in a deal must configure on those minutes being replaced… which is easier said than done, as quality centers playing quality minutes in this league usually demands a ripe premium.
That, and coupled with Stepan’s summer-long contract holdout from July to October of 2013, suggest the man will get his money, one way or the other. The only question? How much, and for how long.
In January, HockeyRodent compared Stepan to that of Ryan O’Reily last summer, in terms of similarity in both performance, position and contractual point in careers. Below I’ve updated the numbers of that comparison, and it remains a valid guide to help us determine what Stepan’s new salary ought to be.
If O’Reilly is any indicator (which, in all likelihood, is an excellent comparable for Stepan’s summer negotiations)… He received a 2-year $6 million/year deal from Colorado, days prior to their salary arbitration hearing (which was filed by the team, not player). Granted that O’Reilly is roughly a year-and-a-half younger than Stepan… but still, this is the realistic figure Glen Sather will be dealing with.
Stepan could realistically refuse any offer he doesn’t like, go to arbitration, likely get a 1-year ~$6 million arbitration judgement, and set his sights on becoming an Unrestricted Free Agent in Summer 2017. It doesn’t take an economist to realize Stepan has the leverage, and while lowballing is not an option, it will very likely be “cheaper” to sign Derek to a long-term deal this summer rather than next summer, with as much as 29 other teams bidding for the productive center.
Of all the aspects of long-term considerations from which to pinch pennies on next year’s payroll, Stepan is likely that last place to do so. I think we can assuredly predict Stepan receives a cap hit of $6 to $7 million per year, with the former being 1-or-2-year-deals, and the latter representing 6-7-or-8-year-deals.
If that still seems like an unfairly high prediction-of-pay for Stepan, just remember last summer. The 31-year-old Jason Spezza received a 4-year $7.5 million/year contract from Dallas. The 28-year-old Paul Stastny received a 4-year $7 million/year contract from St. Louis. So… what do you think a 27-year-old Derek Stepan would fetch in 26 months, with the salary cap possibly in the mid $70-millions range?
A lot.
And it’s foolish to think Stepan, his agent, & Glen Sather aren’t aware of the market’s atmosphere through any of this. Our guess at Stepan’s 2015-16 cap hit will be something like $6.25 million/year, assuming some sort of multi-year-deal is signed this summer.
Having the dynamic-duo of Derek Stepan & Derrick Brassard around for their late 20’s at a total annual cost of $11-$12 million per year is not a bad going rate in the current NHL. And of course, we assume we like that 1-2 punch, as they have notched 3 respectable runs in the postseason since they began playing together in February 2013.
Which brings us to Brassard and his line:
Mats Zuccarello, Derrick Brassard, & Rick Nash:
All 3 players excelled on their line, with Brassard & Zuccarello enjoying success on the same line for the 2nd consecutive campaign (it was Benoit Pouliot in lieu of Nash in ’13-’14). All 3 players are under contract, with varying No-Move/No-Trade clauses, for the next 3-4 seasons.
There’s no reason to think any of the 3 forwards will be moved, nor should it be thought they must be moved, going forward for New York. In sum, they will cost a total of $17.3 million, which is certainly not a “bad” rate for a top offensive line, realistically projected to score 70-80 goals next regular season.
Indeed, we can only wonder the true effect of Zuccarello’s absence in the 2nd & 3rd round of the postseason as far as Rangers chances at success. The line proved to be effective, time and time again, and will most likely be kept together for next October, barring some crazily unlikely trade.
Jesper Fast & J.T. Miller:
Both of these players had strange, versatile journeys in the 2014-15 season & postseason, varying from AHL minor leaguer, to 4th line specialist, to Derek Stepan’s top-linemate. Even though both players had NHL experience prior to this year, it was their first taste of NHL regularity. We can reasonably assume both can be expected as roster regulars for next season, both coming off their respective entry-level contracts this summer.
Neither player has the right to salary arbitration, which means barring a grandiose offer sheet, both forwards will be without leverage against Broadway lowballing. Glen Sather, historically shrewd and stingy with restricted free agents whom are without arbitration or recourse, should probably pursue that tactic, and save as much cap space on the duo as possible.
J.T. Miller’s qualifying offer is 1-year $777,000. Given his draft pedigree (15th overall in 2011), Sather would probably reluctantly succumb to a “higher” contract offer on Miller, than of Fast, who was taken 157th overall.
A 1-year deal of $800,000 - $900,000 is perhaps optimistic on Miller’s part (just ask John Moore last summer, whom received not a dollar more than his qualifying offer), but not impossible. If Miller looks to make at least $1 million annually, a 2-year “bridge” deal of $1-1.5 million seems a lot more realistic.
We’ll guesstimate that Miller and the Rangers end up agreeing to a 2-year, $1.1 million deal in July or August.
As for Quickie? … ehrm… I mean, Fast?
His qualifying offer is for more than that of Miller, which is 1-year $851,000. It would not surprise me at all if Fast signs a 1-year deal for his exact qualifying offer, even though I doubt he nor his agent would be thrilled. And much like Miller, a 2-year “bridge” contract for a little more, say $900,000-$1 million per year, could just as easily make sense for both parties.
So… we’ll make the assumption both are signed to 2-year deals, stiff-armedly lowball deals, at roughly $2 million per year totaled between the two.
As far as the depth chart? Coach Alain Vigneault would have the lineup flexibility of putting either skater on any of the 4 lines. Miller has shown a greater upside and potential for offensive production, while Fast has already locked up his reliability as an excellent defensive forward, whom was particularly successful on NYR penalty kills.
Carl Hagelin:
The only remaining Restricted Free Agent we have not talked about yet. Hagelin has the right of salary arbitration, and like Stepan, only two summers away from Unrestricted Free Agency. His qualifying offer is $2.4 million.
What’s his value?
If Hagelin goes to arbitration, the most recent (and very logical) comparable to examine is that of Vladimir Sobotka, and his 1-year arbitration result which found he was “worth” $2.725 million. How similar is Sobotka last summer to Hagelin THIS summer? Let’s take a look…
Prev 2 Seasons Avg/Gp: .16 G, .32 A, .48 P … ~16:10/gp
CURRENT:
HAGELIN (Age 27)
NHL Career: 266 games, 130 points (58-72-130)… 15:38/gp
NHL Career Avg/Gp: .22 G, .27 A, .49 P
Prev 2 Seasons: 154 games, (34-34-68)… ~15:20/gp
Prev 2 Seasons Avg: .22 g-.22a - .44 p
In addition to the nearly identical age (Sobotka was 1 month younger than Hagelin is now when he went to arbitration), nearly identical stats, and nearly identical role on respective teams… It seems to be a very fitting comparable for Hagelin’s camp to gauge his value. Perhaps this very article will come up in the arbitration hearing?
... A lonely, disheartened blogger can dream, can't he??...
All-in-all, Sobotka was awarded roughly 4% of the incoming 2014-14 salary cap ($69 million). Should Hagelin’s 1-year arbitration award mirror a 4% figure, then we can projected Hagelin’s value at about 1-year $2.85 million if the salary cap is $71.5 million.
Is Carlos worth $2.85 million to speed the flank on Broadway’s 3rd line? Perhaps, or perhaps not. It certainly wouldn’t be an “unfair” sum for either player nor team, yet if the Rangers are destined to have to cut salary by October, this is one of the likeliest candidates to be traded away.
It’s probably 50-50 on Hagelin returning next year or ending up with another NHL club. The only reason he wouldn’t return would be salary cap reasoning, as he’s proven to be a fine 3rd line speedster, particularly pivotal on a team which has won so many games with more speed than sizzle.
But most importantly: if you dump Hagelin, you need to replace his top-tier penalty killing minutes and abilities.
Chris Kreider, Kevin Hayes, Tanner Glass & Dominic Moore:
All four of those skaters are under contract for the 2015-16 season, all of which have relatively minor salary cap hits. There’s no reason to think any of them will depart the team this summer. Even in the art of cutting salary to stay below the cap, this quartet totals a very modest collective cap hit of only $6,325,000. That’s not bad for one-third of the Top-20’s stock of forwards.
Actually… it wouldn’t be the craziest thing if Glass was traded, and a minimum-wage 4th liner was signed off the market to replace his spot. It could save the Rangers up to $875,000 in cap relief. But like I say, it’s unlikely any of these forwards are exiled for salary cap reasons, unless a very interesting trade in orchestrated in the coming months.
Cam Talbot:
Unfortunately for Cam fans, it seems he is the prime candidate for being traded this summer. If there’s a place to start cutting salary, it’s the backup goalie making $1.45 million next season. That, coupled with Talbot’s brilliant play the past few seasons, should make him very attractive to NHL teams fielding starting goalie auditions.
If Broadway trades Talbot, and then signs a veteran backup goalie to a 1-year $575,000 contract (perhaps with a few hundred thousand more in performance bonuses)… That’s a cap hit saving of $875,000. It’s also the “easiest” way to cut salary, since ~ barring another long-term injury to Lundqvist~ it will only influence 20-25 games in the regular season… and (hopefully) none in the 2016 playoffs.
The biggest NHL shoppers expected to utilize this summer’s goalie market are likely Buffalo, Calgary, Edmonton, Minnesota & San Jose.
I think it can be argued successfully that Talbot’s inherent value for the 2015-16 Rangers is not what he can do as the backup goalie, but what assets can he help return for the team in aspects other than goaltending. I would even go as far to say Talbot is very unlikely going to remain a Ranger over the next 4 months.
Dan Boyle, Dan Girardi, Ryan McDonagh & Marc Staal:
These four defensemen are unlikely to be traded or bought out by New York this summer, and are all-but-guaranteed to remain on the roster for next season’s crusade. All for have No-Trade and/or No-Movement clauses in their respective contracts, and have been irrevocable investments on the blueline for New York. Unless somehow one of these men willingly waives his contract clauses in some unforeseen trade, which is highly improbable; all the fans calling for their roster removal has no basis for actually being considered possible.
Keith Yandle:
A mixed review of offensive contribution and defensive dullness, Yandle’s pricey acquisition proved to be ultimately unfruitful in the 2015 attempt at Stanley. But, he is on contract for one more year before hitting the Unrestricted Free Agent market, and continues to be 50% of his actual cap hit, with Don Maloney and the Arizona Coyotes footing the other 50% of the bill.
Trading Yandle? Possible, but his $2.625 million cap hit is extremely friendly. What 2nd or 3rd pair defensemen could he be replaced with for below cost? While it is “less impossible” for Yandle to be moved than any of Boyle/Girardi/McDonagh/Staal… I still think any of those 5 defensemen getting traded is a far cry from reality.
Which brings us to the 6th defensemen…
Kevin Klein:
Klein, a retrospectively absolute steal from the Nashville Predators in the straight-up exchange for Michael Del Zotto, has enjoyed 2 deep playoff runs in the 2 seasons he’s been Broadway bound. In fact this season the 30-year-old defenseman put up career-high stats in goals (9), assists (17) and points (26).
So why do I think it’s very likely he’s traded?
For a team pressed up against the salary cap, like the Rangers will be this summer, a 3rd pair defenseman making $2.9 million/year is an easy place to cut. The fact that he enjoyed a career year (despite missing 17 games with a broken arm) only makes his trade value that much more enticing.
Like Talbot, his expandability in terms of salary vs “minor” playing time, coupled with his perky trade value after a successful season… spells out the perfect storm to be traded as the Blueshirts scramble to get under $72 million by October 1st.
Klein does not have any no-trade or no-movement clauses, meaning he is powerless to stop any trade he might be packaged within. And certain teams hungry for fair-value reliable-defensemen would certainly be willing to talk trade with Sather.
The fact that he has 3 more years under his contract makes his trade value all the more genuine. It strikes me as “highly likely” both Talbot and Klein are banished from Broadway to reduce the overall budget. I am NOT suggesting they be traded because of “poor performance” or “dislikability.” Quite the opposite, actually, which is what makes them all the more tradable.
Yes, Sather COULD trade Stepan or Hagelin to dump salary… but both of those players only has 1 season to play before becoming an Unrestricted Free Agent. Even if a team fully intends to acquire one of the two, and sign them to a long-term deal… all the player has to do is go to arbitration, reject all offers, and find himself in the 2016 July marketplace.
Klein’s got 3 years. That means even though Stepan and Hagelin are probably more “valuable” pieces to a team… Klein’s guaranteed service at a guaranteed price makes him the most convenient and effective trade asset. Particularly teams where quality defensemen are at a low.
And finally, the rest of the best…
Oscar Lindberg:
Having finished his 2nd professional season in North America, including a “breakout” season and playoff run with the Hartford Wolf Pack the past 9 months… Lindberg’s candidacy for a 2015-16 roster spot remains a very possible one. The Swedish centerman played his first and only NHL game earlier this season.
He will be a Restricted Free Agent without arbitration rights, so it’s a safe bet the 23-year-old will be re-signed for something around his $709,000 qualifying offer.
Carl Klingberg:
The minor-league winger acquired from Winnipeg in the Lee Stempniak deadline deal… Klingberg fit in nicely, playing with Lindberg’s line successfully. He notched 11 points in his only 13 AHL games with Hartford, and delivered 7 points in 13 postseason games before the Wolf Pack was swept in their Conference Finals.
He will be a Restricted Free Agent without arbitration rights, and like Lindberg, will likely be re-signed for something very near his qualifying offer ($683,000), and given every opportunity to make a roster spot in the NHL come September’s training camp.
Matt Hunwick, Conor Allen, Dylan McIlrath, Mike Kostka:
All four defensemen will have expiring contracts in July. Hunwick managed to separate himself from the other 3 in terms of a bonafide “7th” defensemen throughout the season… yet none of these players were given much of a chance unless a rash of injuries made it so. I don’t believe these will be Rangers blue liners in the coming years (although Hunwick re-signing a low contact to return as the 7th D isn’t exactly “unlikely”, either).
Defenseman Prospects - Future Value:
Brady Skjei
As stated earlier in the article, the Rangers were depleted of defensemen ready to step in and relieve others’ injuries. I’d focus more attention on the crop of younger blueliners New York has brewing in the farm systems.
Is it not a fair conclusion to figure that the need to acquire bluechip bullion prospects over the next 12 months is an extremely logical one? Once Boyle and Yandle are gone, the 3rd pair will need cheap fill-ins. That means scourging the market for more “Matt Hunwicks”, “Steve Emingers” & “Matt Gilroys.” Or… perhaps like the case of Girardi, McDonagh & Staal… have a young, cheaply-contracted prospect organically transition into the big leagues on the 3rd pair.
So, to answer, who or what would we trade Klein & Talbot for?
Klein+Talbot+McIlrath for San Jose’s #9 overall pick?
Klein+Talbot+McIlrath for Calgary’s #15 overall pick?
Klein+Talbot+McIlrath for Edmonton’s #16 overall pick?
A deal like this, is it so far-fetched? It could be a great way to add another quality defenseman prospect to our farm system, and hope the pick could be NHL-ready in 16 - 18 months?
Or, another means could be raiding the free agent out-of-college market, as the Rangers have aggressively done in recent years without a 1st round draft pick. Girardi, Hayes & Talbot all broke onto the Rangers with this method (as well as AHL’ers Conor Allen, Mat Bodie, & Ryan Haggerty).
Mike Reilly, a left-handed defenseman out of University of Minnesota, is coming off his 3rd season in the NCAA. The 22-year-old scored 6 goals & 36 assists in 39 games. While drafted by Columbus in 2011 (4th round), if he does not sign a deal with them by August 15, he will be on the completely open market, in the same fashion Kevin Hayes was.
I count two dozen NCAA skaters drafted in 2011, still without a contract, who could also be totally on the open market this summer. It seems all but certain that the Rangers will pursue at least a few, depending on their scouting consensus.
As of now, Brady Skjei seems the likeliest prospect to contend for an NHL roster spot come training camp. By the training camp after that, it’d be nice to have 2-3 more candidates to fill the Boyle/Yandle void, almost assuredly coming.
Unless the Rangers will tap into a hot pool of premium defensive prospects, this next season could be the “deepest” Top-6 unit the team will have for the foreseeable future.
Conclusion:
The Rangers will not be shoppers on the market this summer. The Rangers actually won’t have too many decisions at hand, as most of the roster is essentially already set up for the 2015-16 season. The only kinks are a few restricted free agent details as far as length & pay, as well as the inevitable need to dump a few million in salary (I still think it’s overwhelmingly Klein+Talbot). But that’s it.
This team had a good run. They played well, were coached well… the problem is they didn’t have an actual "well.” The top-heaviness of the Top-20 roster spots’ salary should be shaved off… and will be, as far as I can tell… but what really kept New York out of the Finals was a lack of depth. A lack of talented prospects bursting at the seems who could be asked to step in and play minutes.
… And that problem will only be exacerbated come a year from now, when the franchise will truly need to have defensemen with cheap contracts but not cheap playing ability. Look for the Rangers to at least draft a defenseman with their 2nd round, #59 overall pick.
There’s no reason why the 2015-16 Rangers should be any less competitive, competent or capable than their predecessor… considering it will likely be a near duplicate of its predecessor… and one more crack at a playoff run before Lundqvist’s 35th birthday.
The “window” may be closing, but it should remain at least cracked open, for one more season.
P.S.: I did not discuss Martin St. Louis because he is just as likely to return to New York as any of the other 2015 Unrestricted Free Agent wingers or defensemen out there. I don't think any of us will be surprised if he did not return to Broadway for next season...
And if not, we undoubtedly thank him for his tremendous service and dedication to the Rangers lineup the past 15 months. It will never be forgotten, despite no championship glory.
