Saturday, May 23, 2015

It'd be Bigger News if Lundqvist, Rangers had FAILED to Respond

   Since December, the New York Rangers have lost back-to-back games a total of 6 times, not including the most recent skid of Games 2 & 3 against Tampa Bay. That’s a stingy rate of “only” losing two games in a row about once per month. Not too shabby, eh?

   But what’s been more impressive is the immediate response to punting back-to-back contests. Unbelievably, in each of those 6 skids, Broadway has responded with a bounceback winning-streak of at least 3 wins. Every time.

   Well… the most recent 7th occurrence is still up in the air. New York would have to close out the series with victories in Games 5 & 6 to make it 7-for-7.

   So was anyone truly surprised that head coach Alain Vigneault bench-bossed a group of skaters Friday night that responded to 12 goals allowed in the previous 2 hours? Not to say the 5-1 win was a casual expectation, of course it always has elements of surprise… but how could anyone paying attention since Christmas have been “totally shocked?”

   This is what these 2015 Rangers do best: handle adversity. Stay the course. Respond. 

   There were injuries inviting track derailment, as with substantial absences from key performers such as Derek Stepan, Henrik Lundqvist, Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Klein, Mats Zuccarello, and Dan Boyle. And yet no factor could keep the squad from finishing the season with a league-best record (or more impressively an all-time franchise-best performance).

   Remember the questions on everyone’s mind last September? Pondering the potential of a platoon with a center depth chart of Stepan/Brassard/Hayes (a rookie whom was a natural winger prior to training camp)… despite last season’s success, the Rangers have time and time again proven themselves to invariable possess something very valuable in the quest of Stanley Cup conquest; resiliency.

















   Need we mention the 3-1 series deficits of last month AND last year? In fact, the NY Rangers have won their last 3 playoff series when trailing 2-1 after Game 3. Yes, you read that correctly. The previous 3 instances of falling behind 2-1 in a series (’13 & ’15 vs Washington & ’14 vs Pittsburgh) all resulted in Rangers finding a way to respond with 3 wins in the following 4 games.

   Oh yeah… and that Henrik Lundqvist guy.

   Since Round 1 / Game 1 vs Ottawa in 2012, Lundqvist has played 32 playoff games following a playoff loss. Should anyone be surprised that in those 32 games following postseason defeat, Lundqvist has responded 20-12 with a .935 sv% & 1.87 GAA? Of course not. Madison Square Garden has hosted nearly a full decade of the Lundqvist era of Rangers hockey. Perhaps a fanbase spoiled with elite, pressure-thriving, immaculately consistent goaltending for 2.5 Presidential Terms could lose site of his character, total embodiment of the Blueshirts.
















   Shame on anyone who took to a social media, forum or watercolor discussion seriously suggesting benching Lundqvist after the totally uncharacteristic outlier of Games 2 & 3. Vigneault’s scoffing of such question after Game 3’s 6-2 loss was a beautiful reminder he knows what he’s doing, he knows what he’s got, & he hasn’t taken Lundqvist for granted.

   I mean seriously… remember in 2005 when Yankees closer Mariano Rivera had a rough skid, blowing a handful of saves in a few allotment of regular season games? Totally freak skid when compared to his high-volume history of getting the job done, fans reacted with emotion and an unsettling disregard for logic or appreciation of variance. 

   As if the myriad of impatient Tri-State sports fans had never had a bad stretch of days at THEIR office. 

   Isn't it ironic that perhaps the best hockey team on the planet in terms of patiently cool, calm & collected responses is bound to play for a region of sports fans that are perhaps the exact opposite? 

   So… this is it. The Rangers ability to respond, react, adapt & re-mount the horse is what separates them from all the other teams. Late-game rallies in the regular season against Minnesota, New Jersey & NY Islanders were instant classics, but not isolated events. They were demonstrations of a team that battles back, that can regroup, that can prove to be a tough ember to snuff.

   Oh, and by the way, the Rangers are 6-0 this postseason when leading after 2 periods. Going back to the regular season it’s 42-0-1. 



















   This team has the ability to push their way back into games, elevate their game in the face of losses or series deficits… AND yet never allow it to happen to them. Those are a couple of wonderful attributes to a hockey club, needing only 6 more wins to capture it all. 

   The Rangers responded after a pair of tough losses. Lundqvist couldn’t go more than 2 games without throwing in yet another elite performance. Vigneault laughed when asked if the team would have to restructure their franchise cornerstone in order to assimilate a response. 


   “Rangers respond”, “Lundqvist shines”, “Vigneault is good at coaching”. Yeah yeah yeah… move along folks, no surprising storyline to read about here.

Friday, May 22, 2015

The "Boyle vs Stralman" Debate is About MORE Than The 2 Defensemen


   Much less the confrontation and retrospective forum on ‘Callahan vs MSL’, as one may have thought earlier this year… the bigger debate has been not the captain-for-captain trade last spring… but rather the free-agency signing of Dan Boyle by the NY Rangers, in lieu of re-upping Anton Stralman last summer.



   















   Both defensemen signed for $4.5 million/year salary cap hits, except the 38-year-old Boyle signed a 2-year deal (probably leaving money on the table from other offers to specifically compete for a Stanley Cup with the defending Prince-of-Whales trophy winning Rangers). Stralman, 10 years younger, signed for the same annual average, but for 5 years.


















   The sporadic & general consensus is that letting Stralman go for Boyle was ‘the wrong choice.’

   And there’s understandable merit to that conclusion:
  • The Rangers (with Boyle) are losing the Eastern Conference Finals 2-1
  • The Lightning (with Stralman) are winning the ECF 2-1
  • Anton Stralman has had a “better” season and post-season than Dan Boyle

   So… Boyle over Stralman was the ‘incorrect’ decision for NYR GM Glen Sather last summer? Cased closed!

   … not exactly…

   After the long-term contract signings of Henrik Lundqvist, Derrick Brassard, Dan Girardi, & Marc Staal… coupled with the long-term pre-existing contracts of Rick Nash & Kevin Klein… the fact of the matter was the cap space down the road was beginning to get tight, and configuring future puzzle pieces assured to fit nicely was now a much trickier undertaking.

   Let’s go to this chart I’ve made:


  •  
  • The contracts in grey boxes are actual, non-ficticious cap hits currently on the book for the NY Rangers
  • The contracts in maroon boxes are guesstimated cap hits of the player once his current, greybox contract expires
  • The contracts in blue are guesstimated cap hits for replacement of that player… meaning the cap hits in blue could be any player, and is assumed to be a replacement for whomever’s roster spot is being represented

   Look at the contracts expiring in 13 months (July 2016): We see a lot of contracts expiring (specifically Boyle’s $4.5 mil/yr)… and we are giving credit that Stepan, Kreider & Hayes get bigger, long-term contracts. To whit: if Stralman’s $4.5 million was occupying the 2nd RD roster slot, the 3yr/$10 million deal to Hayes (a duplicate of the contract that both Andrej Palat & Tyler Johnson received after their respective entry-level contracts) would not be available. Nor would the Zuccarello-esque contract we predict Kreider is entitled to next summer.

   So… signing Boyle or Stralman… had a lot more to do than just either player’s comparative performances the following season & postseason. It had a lot to do with securing cap space for New York’s budding youth core, and making sure the Rangers weren’t handcuffed in a few dozen months.

   Are the Rangers “all in”, as with their dealing of draft picks & highly-touted prospect Anthony DuClair? It’s a heck of a mortgage, but the team’s ability to probably secure most of its current maturing youth suggests the window of opportunity may not be destined to slam shut. (Granted, Henrik Lundqvist’s massive contract, and the fact he’s entering his mid-to-late 30’s in the coming seasons… do suggest a mortally immediate timeline for the team’s contendership as a whole)

    Yet conversely, it seems so easy to forget the handsomely young ages of most of the franchise’s artillery: Kreider, Stepan, Fast, Hayes & Lindberg are all under 26 years of age. Brassard, Zuccarello, Hagelin, McDonagh & Staal have plenty of hockey to play before their 30th birthday. And where forfeiting 1st round draft picks usually hurts a team, New York’s big-market advantage in signing collegiate free agents (as they did with Hayes, Talbot, & Haggerty) can offset a lot of that excavation.













  What’s the point I’m trying to make?

   Signing Stepan to a long-term deal seems almost inevitable this summer. The same for Kreider & Hayes next summer (remember: since both signed their entry-level contracts at age 21, they cannot bet coddled in low-cap-hit bridge deals at this point in their career. Players late to sign their first NHL contract get the right to salary-arbitration immediately!)

   Come July 2016, it will be time to pay up to the core. With Boyle’s fleeting 2-year deal vs Stralman’s 5-year deal, the Rangers are well-equipped financially to smoothly accommodate this important transition for the franchise. While the defensive depth of 2017 will probably be shallower than the current crop of 7 defensemen, the sustainability to keep the current herd of forwards employed atop Penn Station remains a wonderful thing for Rangers fans.


   So… do you still think it was a glaring ‘mistake’ to sign Boyle over Stralman?

   P.S.:

   -  I did not include Cam Talbot's contract for the 2015-16 season in the graph because of the overwhelming logic it makes to trade him this off-season. 

   - A more detailed and elaborate chart of NY Ranger's ACTUAL present-day salaries can be found here: 


Friday, April 10, 2015

Final Thoughts on NY Rangers before 2015 Playoff Run (Part 1)

   Assuming there is no injury dealt to a NY Ranger on Saturday's season-finale matinee in Washington D.C., Game 1 of the 1st Round Playoffs will be an opportune time for the blueshirts to finally take the ice with 100% health. With Kevin Klein set to return from his broken arm injury, we will see New York the healthiest it’s been since the night of Lundqvist’s neck injury.

   Does anything “odd” come to mind when looking over the projected NYR playoff lineup?...


Zuccarello - Brassard - Nash
Kreider - Stepan - St. Louis
Hagelin - Hayes - Miller
Fast - Moore - Glass

McDonagh - Girardi
Staal - Boyle
Yandle - Klein

Lundqvist
Talbot

(Extras: Shepperd, Hunwick, Summers, AHL call-ups)


   … Well, did you notice something? 

   If not, try this spoiler on for size: This particular group of players has actually NEVER played a single game together!

    Keith Yandle, Henrik Lundqvist, Martin St. Louis & Kevin Klein have never been in the lineup all at the same time. The opening game of the NYR playoffs is set to be the debut of the 100% completely healthy post-trade-deadline New York Rangers.

   Scary, huh? 

   Well… scary for opponents. A fairly pleasant bit of trivia for any Rangers fan, no doubt.

   How about this: when Boyle, Brassard, Klein, Kreider, Lundqvist, McDonagh, Miller, Nash, Stepan, St. Louis & Zuccarello all play in the same game: NYR is 12-3 this season.

   12-3? That’s a points percentage of 80%, which is well-above the already-league-leading 69% NYR has amassed in the total season!

   Can this team really be BETTER in the 1st round than it has in the past 10 weeks? I mean: NYR are 14-5-1 since acquiring Yandle. When all these players hit the ice, with Yandle/Klein/Lundqvist all onboard together at the same time for some shifts, could it possibly decrease Broadway’s winning formula in any way conceivable? 

   The answer is: probably freaking not.

   Not only does head coach Alain Vigneault rotate a remarkably even-keel on spreading out ice time for forwards & defensemen, but there seems to be an equally spread-out wave of rest amongst key players, perhaps extremely beneficial for a potential Stanley Cup run.


   Lundqvist: 36 games missed/rested

   McDonagh: 11 games missed/rested

   Boyle: 17 games missed/rested

   St. Louis: 8 games missed/rested

   Klein: 17 games missed/rested

   Stepan: 14 games missed/rested


   These injuries will seem like blessings-in-disguise should NYR have another series of hockey battles lasting into the month of June. Any advantage of rest, or less-energy-expended-than-opponent, will be absolutely clutch. Gaps of missed time, save a few cob webs, can make the difference in close, battle-of-the-beaten-teams rundowns.

   You think Marian Gaborik’s successfully sprite playoff performance with LA last postseason had anything to do with him spending 50% of the regular season resting with injury? As if Jonathan Quick would have as much left in the tank as he did last May/June had he played 1,000 minutes more than the 2904 he played in the ’13-’14 regular season?

   Actually we did some research... over the past 10 Stanley Cups winners, how many Cup-winning goaltenders finished Top-10 Minutes Played in that regular season? Answer: Just 2.! Yup, twice in the past decade. Only Marc-Andre Fleury 2009 (9th in minutes) & Jonathan Quick 2012 (4th in minutes) were able to play the big minutes in the season AND win it all in June. The other 80% of the time, championship teams had goalies with far less regular season minutes. Causation/correlation? 

   The theory of (Rested Goalie) = (Better Stamina in May/June) >>> (Overworked Goalie) = (Lower Stamina in May/June) sure seems plausible, at least at a glance.

   By the way, the 8 well-rested Cup-winning goalies the past 10 postseasons are: Crawford'13 (21st), Quick'12 (21st), Thomas'11 (14th), Niemi'10 (34th), Osgood'08 (30th), Giguere'07 (18th), Ward'06 (46th), Khabibulin'04 (17th).

   Lundqvist: Currently 27th in the NHL.



   So we have a well-rested King Henrik, who has (abnormal to his career, mind you) played a conservative amount of minutes this season. What about rival Eastern Conference powerhouses' goaltenders? 7 of the 8 possible teams are sporting netminders in the Top-20 minutes played. Only OTT Senators with Andrew 'Hamburgler' Hammond have the advantage of rest over New York.

   Metro Division rival Brayden Holtby (WSH) leads all NHL goalies in minutes played. Rask (BOS) is 3rd, Price (MTL) is 4th, Fleury (PIT) is 8th, Bishop (TBL) is 12th, Halak (NYI) is 13th, & Howard (DET) is 20th. 

   Let's be real: Henrik Lundqvist will have a considerable edge of stamina against any "top" Eastern Conference foe. In a league where rest-is-best when dealing with goaltenders winning Cups, the rarity of a Lundqvist long-term injury (seemingly detrimental at the time) has now become a new rarity, seemingly helpful at this time.

   A combination of rest, rotation & multiple-egg-basket distribution has a seriously optimistic ring for NY Rangers fans. The top-20 NYR contracts will all be healthy & in the lineup together again at Game 1 for the first time since January. Talk about timing, talk about a plan coming together damn nicely.
   
   We'll likely post a follow-up when the NY Rangers playoff opponent is officially decided Saturday.

   The playoffs start next Wednesday.
   
   

Monday, April 6, 2015

Rangers Look To Play 'Streak-Buster' Once More This Season


Rangers Have Been the 2014-15 Streak-Busters of the NHL

SJS was 4-0-1 heading into the 10/19/14 game at Madison Square Garden… the Rangers prevailed, beating the Sharks 4-0.

PIT was 7-0-1 heading into the 11/11/14 game at Madison Sqaure Garden… the Rangers prevailed, beating the Penguins 5-0.

WSH was 7-0-2 heading into the 12/23/14 game at Madison Square Garden… the Rangers prevailed, beating the Capitals in 4-2.

OTT was 7-0 in their last 7 (and 15-1-1 in their last 17) heading into the 3/26/15 game in Ottawa against NYR… the Rangers prevailed, beating the Senators 5-1.

CBJ are currently riding a, 9-game winning streak, including 12 wins in their last 13 games, head into Madison Square Garden tonight. Unlike Columbus, the Rangers can further improve their place in the standings for playoff considerations. 



Rick Nash Looks To Secure Even-Strength Goals Title












   Rick Nash heads into tonight’s game with 32 Even-Strength Goals on the season, leading all players. Steve Stamkos (TBL) has 30 & Corey Perry (ANH) has 29.




Lundqvist 2 Wins Away from 30



   And speaking of streaks… Lundqvist’s streak of securing 30 wins in a full NHL season (he had a league-leading 24 wins in the shortened 2012-13 season) is at jeopardy. With 4 games remaining, Lundqvist finds himself at 28 wins, after missing several weeks with a neck/blood vessel injury.


Sunday, April 5, 2015

J.T. Miller's Rising [Price Tag]

   J.T. Miller played in 15 games during all of October, November & December earlier this season. After failing to outclass fellow Blueshirt bluechips Kevin Hayes & Anthony Duclair for 3rd line forwardship in the 1st half of the season... Miller has recently resurged his priority in the NY Rangers regular lineup. In fact, Miller played in 15 games during the month of March alone!



   Earlier in the season, it seemed Miller's cost of a new contract this summer would not be much higher than his $777,000 qualifying offer. In fact as little as a few months ago, there was no reason to think Miller would receive anything outside the $800,000-900,000 range on a 1-or-2-year deal. But with Miller suddenly becoming a relevant contributor to the Metropolitan Division champions (including a game-winning-assist & game-winning-goal vs. Winnipeg & Minnesota last week)... the question is now blooming: how much will J.T. Miller cost to keep this summer?

   Since he is coming off of his entry-level contract, Miller does not have arbitration rights. Glen Sather has historically signed young forwards in this scenario to two-year 'bridge' contracts. So, in the interest of getting a feel for Miller's possible costs, I assembled 5 players whom could be noted as 'comparable.'



   These 5 players all:

   - Are players signed to a 2-year bridge deal following their entry-level-contract
   - All in their early 20's
   - All, like Miller, had no right to salary arbitration when signing their new contract

   Let's look at the data:

   Miller has less years of age, career games, & career points-per-game than the average. Miller's pedigree is the only above-average characteristic.

   So: is a 2-year $1.7 million/year contract something J.T. Miller can realistically be offered? Sather has a propensity to lowball his helpless restricted free agents... What would Miller be worth on a 1-year deal? $1.5 million?

   The playoffs can make-or-break these numbers. Is it inconceivable for every postseason game-winning-goal scored by Miller to equate to a $25,000 increase to the figures we are currently discussing?

   If the chart is any indicator... then 2.45% of the current $69 million salary cap would be $1.69 million/year.

   Stay tuned...
   
   

Friday, April 3, 2015

Alain Vigneault: The Road Warrior



   On Thursday night, Alain Vigneault broke his own NY Rangers record by setting the 89-year-old NHL franchise record for road wins in a single season (26), breaking his own record from last season (25). It should come to little surprise, as A.V.'s marriage in New York City is as strong and successfully vibrant than at any point before. Oh, and by the way, the NY Rangers still have 2 road games remaining this season, should A.V. want to set the bar even higher for 2015-16.



   The NY Rangers round out the regular season (after also having clinched the Metro Division last night as well) with road games in New Jersey [4/7] & Washington [4/11]. Should NY win both, the 2013/14 & 14/15 would be tied for the highest-winning-percentage NHL road team over a 2-year span since the 2005 lockout.



  I mean... is there any way Rangers fans COULDN'T be in love with this guy?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIehnX-OibA

Friday, March 20, 2015

Cam Talbot's Trade Value & The 2015 Goalie Market


 Why are people talking about trading Cam Talbot in the summer?




















   The more impressive Talbot plays as the NY Ranger’s acting starter goalie since Henrik Lundqvist’s injury, the higher is trade value is. If a rival NHL team is looking for goaltending, the more Talbot makes a case as a legitimate NHL goalie, the more that team would be willing to give New York in a trade. With no disrespect to Talbot, nor denial of his exquisite play over the last several weeks... trading Talbot in the summer remains a very logical possibility.




   Is there a goalie controversy in New York?

   No. There is not. Talbot has had a spectacular career since breaking into the league, and has successfully performed when asked to be a starter. But Lundqvist is on the first year of a massive $8.5 million per year contract, and will not be “dethroned” by anybody anytime soon. This is another reason why Talbot June trade rumors have already become speculative here in March.
















   What is Talbot’s trade value?

   It’s tough to say or measure what NYR could get for Talbot in a trade. There are a number of factors to consider when evaluating a goalie’s trade value in the off-season.

   What factors are there to consider?

      For starters:
  • How many goaltending spots/games are up-for-grabs in 2015-16?
  • How many goaltenders will be in the 2015 unrestricted free agent pool?
  • How convinced will rival General Managers be in Talbot as a (potential) franchise asset?

   How many goaltending spots are currently up for grabs in 2015-16?

   Looking over the contracts of the other 29 NHL teams, we’d predict at least 7-11 goaltending spots currently available for next season…
   - Buffalo & San Jose could be the biggest shoppers should Anders Lindback and/or Antti Niemi walk unrestricted when their contracts expire in July. Both teams have historic backups contracted 1 more year (BUF- Chad Johnson, SJS- Matt Stalock). Each franchise could be looking for 50-70 games of goaltending to fill.
   - Edmonton, with Viktor Fasth becoming an UFA, and Ben Scrivens only under contract 1 more year, could field suitors to play anywhere from 30-60 games go goaltending to fill.
  • Arizona, Calgary, Columbus, Dallas, NY Islanders, Philadelphia & Pittsburgh could also be looking for (back-up) goaltending this off-season:
   Why is it 7-11 spots “at least?”

   Looking over incoming contract gaps isn’t everything to consider. There are some goalies who are currently set to be under contract in 2015-16, but could be bought out or buried in the minors in the next 6 months.

   What goalies are the likeliest to get buried or bought out in the off-season?

  • Ondrej Pavelec, Winnipeg Jets: With his below-average play, and rookie phenom Michael Hutchinson emerging as the franchise’s top-dog… The final 2 years of Pavelec’s deal could logically be bought out in June. With Winnipeg among the lowest-payroll clubs in the NHL, Talbot’s $1.45 million + Hutchinson’s $0.575 million could/would be the best bang-for-buck duo of netminding in quite some time.

  • Niklas Backstrom, Minnesota Wild: Similar to the above, Backstrom has 1 year left on his contract and has not put up quality numbers. Minnesota, whom has youngster Darcy Kuempfer under contract, is also set to lose Devon Dubynk & Josh Harding to free agency. Nobody would be surprised at a Backstroke buyout.

  • Cam Ward, Carolina Hurricanes: Notice the pattern? Relatively high cap hit on the final year of a hefty contract, coupled with below-average goaltending numbers in 2014-15, Ward is also a strong candidate to be bought out. It’s highly conceivable Carolina would free up room with a buyout to shop the market for someone to split time with Antoine Khudobin. 

  • Mike Smith, Arizona Coyotes: While a 2015 buyout of Smith seems unlikely despite his disappointing 2014-15 campaign, Arizona will likely seek a back-up. If Arizona is open to the possibility of seeking a new starter in lieu of Talbot... a feasible course of action could be to acquire Talbot, and buyout Smith in 2016 before offering Talbot a new contract extension. Smith is under contract until 2019. 

  • James Reimer, Toronto Maple Leafs: Should Toronto seek to couple Jonathan Bernier with a different goalie capable of playing 25-45 games other than Reimer, unless traded, could be bought out of his final contract year. Toronto will be under enormous pressure to improve this off-season, and made the slick salary cap trade of David Clarkson-for-Nathan Horton, to free up millions of dollars in theoretical spending (should Horton remain on Long Term IR as expected). 


* = Restricted Free Agent on July 1st, 2015


   That's great... So what is Talbot’s trade value?

   We know there’s 7-11 goalie spots, with perhaps more should buyouts or AHL-burials come about. There’s only 2 or 3 bonafide #1 goaltending spots, with the rest being back-ups or fifty-fifty splitters. 

   The other side of the coin is: what is Talbot’s competition in filling these 2015-16 open spots? 

   List of Top-15 outgoing Unrestricted Free Agent goaltenders with expiring contracts on July 1, 2015:

  • D. Dubynk
  • A. Niemi
  • V. Fasth
  • A. Hammond
  • M. Neuvirth
  • K. Ramo
  • J. Gustavsson
  • J. Enroth
  • A. Lindback
  • R. Emery
  • T. Greiss
  • D. Ellis
  • C. McElhinney
  • J. Harding
  • R. Bachman

   List of current 2nd/3rd string goalies under contract who could be traded to other teams as a 1st/2nd string goalie?

  • BOS: N. Svedberg / M. Subban
  • CHI: S. Darling / A. Raanta
  • COL: R. Berra / C. Pickard
  • TBL: A. Vasilevski / K. Gudlevskis
  • WSH: J. Peters / P. Grubauer 

   So there are a lot of goalies out there to fill the 7-15 goalie spots available for next season. Again, what is Talbot’s trade value?

  • A recent comparable to a goalie (similar to Talbot) being traded straight up for value was Corey Schneider in June 2013. At the time of his trade, Schneider had similar characteristics as Talbot does now (age, statistics, similar risk with investing in goalie as franchise starter). However... Talbot will have only played roughly half the NHL minutes as Schneider, making his sample size less, thus less proof that Talbot could be a legitimate big-minute NHL goalie. Schneider had more than triple Talbot’s ’15-’16 cap hit, but double the years under contract at the time of his trade.

      The Vancouver Canucks traded Schneider’s remaining contract year before unrestricted free agency to the New Jersey Devils on June 30th, 2013 for the 1st Round (9th overall) pick of the ’13 draft.





  • The last time the NY Rangers traded a player with similar contract stature for a lone draft pick? When they traded Derek Dorsett to the Vancouver Canucks on June 27th, 2014 for their  3rd Round (85th overall) draft pick in the ’14 draft.
  Conclusion:

   If Schneider fetched a 1st round & Dorsett fetched a 3rd round, it wouldn’t be the wildest thought in the world to figure Cam Talbot’s trade value as something around a 2nd Round draft pick in the '15 draft. Talbot’s NHL career has less sample size than Schneider’s, but would certainly fetch more than Dorsett in terms of potential value to a franchise. 

  • We predict that, alone, Talbot could be traded for a 2nd round pick in the off-season
  • If an NHL club is really looking to upgrade goaltending, look for investment over the next stretch of seasons, NYR could probably throw in goaltending prospects Mackenzie Skapski, Brandon Halverson, or Igor Shestyorkin with Talbot for a 1st Round pick. Halverson & Shestyorkin both played in the latest World Juniors tournament, and Skapski recently became the lowest-drafted NHL goalie in history to record a shutout at age 20. 

   With the franchise contract protecting franchise goalie Henrik Lundqvist, coupled with New York’s strong crop of young up-and-coming goalies, it would make a lot of sense to deal Talbot and 1 or 2 prospects to teams willing to pay quality draft picks. Draft picks acquired in the summer can always be used as trade chips for the following trade deadline, especially when it comes to NHL clubs more designed to win games in the present than down the road. 

   If the NHL salary cap only increases a few million dollars in 2015-16, as suggested by the most recent reports, then the potentially cap-strapped Rangers could logically shave up to $875,000 by trading Talbot and signing a minimum-wage free agent replacement. We shouldn’t count on Skapski stepping in as a full-time 2nd string in 2015-16 as he is early on in his professional career and will likely be the AHL affiliate Hartford Wolf Pack’s starter, getting regularly tough playing time. 

Cam Talbot's last 10 games

   And while NYR General Manager Glen Sather has made some awful signings in New York, all 3 of his Cam Talbot signings have been significantly great value. If Talbot is indeed traded for a 2nd round draft pick, it will be a total gain for the franchise. Talbot was initially signed out of the NCAA (University of Alabama) after being undrafted. It was for the NHL minimum wage. Before playing his 1st NHL game, before Martin Biron's suddent retirement in 2013... Talbot was re-signed for a 1-year extension at the same cap hit as his initial contract. And earlier this year, well before Lundqvist's strained neck blood vessel injury, Talbot was signed to another 1-year extension, this time $1.45 million. 

  Of course there's still the chance he is not traded, and kept for the 2015-16 NYR campaign. If not sought to be a starter elsewhere, while in NY Talbot has demonstrated to be perhaps the premier NHL backup goaltender in the league.

   In summer of 2009, the NY Rangers traded a 5th round pick to Pittsburgh Penguins for NCAA (University of Alaska) goalie 23-year-old Chad Johnson. Safe to say, if traded, Cam Talbot would fetch more than that.