Does Henrik Lundqvist's Contract HURT or HELP the NY Rangers?

   There's some debate that Henrik Lundqvist's league-leading salary of $8.5 million per year is too much. More specifically, some Rangers fans feel it hurts the team's chances at a Stanley Cup since all that money is not allocated towards forwards nor defensemen. So with the 2014-15 NHL regular season statistics locked in the books from now to eternity, I thought I'd spend this summer day snooping around this theory. Here we go...

   First I took all goaltenders who faced a minimum of 328 shots in the regular season (or faced a minimum of 4 shots on goal per team game during the season). This narrowed the field to 61 NHL goalies from which to extrapolate our data. Then I looked at their total Goals Saved Above Replacement, a nifty stat meant to compare a goaltender to the theoretical average goalie in the given season. I also jotted down their time on ice (rounded to the nearest minute) & 2014-15 salary cap (Average Annual Value).

   Here's the spreadsheet in case anyone would like to check my work.

   When tabulating the averages of this data, we arrived at:

   - The average NHL goalie stopped 1.037377 Goals Above Average in 2014-15
   - The average NHL goalie played 2,267 minutes in 2014-15
   - The average NHL goalie had a cap hit of $3,011,066 in 2014-15

   Taking these three findings into account, we can bundle them into a single, concise "going rate" of the average NHL goalie in 2014-15:

   - The typical NHL goalie stopped 0.027525 Goals Above Average per 60 minutes, paid at a $3,011,066 cap hit

   So...

   How does King Henrik compare relative to that clearinghouse rate?

   - Lundqvist stopped 10.43 Goals Above Average in 2014-15
   - Lundqvist played 2,743 minutes in 2014-15
   - Lundqvist had a cap hit of $8,500,000 in 2014-15

   Therefore...

   - Lundqvist stopped 0.228144 Goals Above Average per 60 minutes, paid at a $8,500,000 cap hit

   How does Lundqvist directly contrast against our mean findings?

   - Lundqvist's GSAA/hour rate was 8.29 times the NHL's average goalie rate
   - Lundqvist's salary cap hit was 2.82 times the NHL's average goalie cap hit

   In essence, Lundqvist performed over 8.3 times the market rate for only 2.8 times the price!

   If you go to a supermarket to purchase frozen TV dinners... but they have a special offering 8.3 times the amount you intended to get, but for less than triple the price you were expecting to pay... kinda hard to categorize that as anything but a good deal.

   Why did I make frozen TV dinners the example? Because a frozen meal purchased today will likely expire right around the time Lundqvist's play will [historically] decline. Do we see Lundqvist becoming anything less than an above-average goalie at any point in the next few years? It seems highly unlikely, barring a massive injury and/or drop-off. While year-to-year subtle regression is the historical norm, HockeyGraphs analysis suggest at least 3 years before major regression.

   So even with his league-leading super-hefty cap hit, Lundqvist was still an absolute bargain in the 2014-15 season, the 1st year of his 6-year contract.

   Let's look at a few graphs to evaluate Lundqvist's legitimacy as a top-paid netminder in the post-post-salary-cap era:

 

   - Lundqvist has had 10 consecutive seasons of either accumulating 30 wins and/or leading the NHL in wins during a shortened season.
   - Lundqvist, compared to the top dogs of the past decade, has yet to have a below-average season.

    - Lundqvist's first 9 years saw him win the Vezina once (2012), where he received 80% of the votes, smashing the record for most-lopsided Vezina voting result since votes were made public in 1981-82.
   - Though his streak may very well end in a few weeks, Lundqvist has gone 9 consecutive seasons while placing no worse than 6th in yearly Vezina votes. In other words, there has yet to be a season where Lundqvist was not voted one of the Top-6 NHL goalies by the league's general managers
   - Lundqvist has never gone a season without receiving votes for at least 1 NHL trophy.

 
   Lundqvist's contribution to the NY Rangers last multi-round playoff runs the past 4 seasons undoubtedly suggest value, even at the steepest price in the land:

   So, while Lundqvist's heavy cap hit will ultimately depreciate in terms of bang-for-buck, as he is contracted until his late 30's... it is not a liability yet. In fact the numbers suggest that it unbelievably remains a bargain, at least in this point in time. In fact, until we see significant regression, there is no way someone can honestly claim Lundqvist (or his plump contract) has actually hurt the Rangers' chances at winning it all.

   Recent goalies to remain extremely productive and valuable to their team, even north of their 35th birthdays, include...

   Tim Thomas

Dominik Hasek

Patrick Roy

   Has Lundqvist not earned the right to be compared to Thomas, Hasek or Roy? While all these players went on to win a Cup (which Lundqvist obviously hasn't...yet?)... he is inarguably one of, if not the, best goalie of his era. 

   Thomas & Hasek also poke holes in the theory "If Lundqvist hasn't won a Cup by now, he never will!" That contention, plus the absolute myth that Lundqvist himself has cost the Rangers a Cup, is irrefutably flawed. Who can genuinely believe it was Lundqvist's contract which cost the Rangers the 2015 postseason, instead of, oh I don't know... The injuries to Mats Zuccarello, Ryan McDonagh, Dan Girardi, Keith Yandle, & Jesper Fast? 

   If 10 consecutive coinflips are all heads, how logical is it to conclude "since there hasn't been any tails before, their never will be in the future!"

   ... That logic simply doesn't hold water.

   Speaking of injuries... other than a few weeks in 2006, a few games in 2013, and the freak vascular injury suffered last February... Lundqvist's healthiness in his career has been absolutely remarkable. No torn ligaments, no broken bones, no concussions, no major or relevant surgery... in a decade! His high-quality production aside, surely his abnormally high attendance in regular season & playoff games also validate his contractual worth.

   Quality, quantity, relativity... they all point towards Lundqvist being a resounding "positive" on the New York roster.

   We'll be posting more goaltender analytical evaluations throughout the summer, including league-wide goaltender stats we've personally created here at SatherOnWaivers. Follow us on Twitter (@HockeyStatMiner ) to receive further updates, and feel free to leave feedback as well.

   All hail the [now economically validated] King!

Cam Talbot's Trade Value & The 2015 Goalie Market

 Why are people talking about trading Cam Talbot in the summer?

   The more impressive Talbot plays as the NY Ranger’s acting starter goalie since Henrik Lundqvist’s injury, the higher is trade value is. If a rival NHL team is looking for goaltending, the more Talbot makes a case as a legitimate NHL goalie, the more that team would be willing to give New York in a trade. With no disrespect to Talbot, nor denial of his exquisite play over the last several weeks... trading Talbot in the summer remains a very logical possibility.

   Is there a goalie controversy in New York?

   No. There is not. Talbot has had a spectacular career since breaking into the league, and has successfully performed when asked to be a starter. But Lundqvist is on the first year of a massive $8.5 million per year contract, and will not be “dethroned” by anybody anytime soon. This is another reason why Talbot June trade rumors have already become speculative here in March.

   What is Talbot’s trade value?

   It’s tough to say or measure what NYR could get for Talbot in a trade. There are a number of factors to consider when evaluating a goalie’s trade value in the off-season.

   What factors are there to consider?

      For starters:

• How many goaltending spots/games are up-for-grabs in 2015-16?
• How many goaltenders will be in the 2015 unrestricted free agent pool?
• How convinced will rival General Managers be in Talbot as a (potential) franchise asset?

   How many goaltending spots are currently up for grabs in 2015-16?

   Looking over the contracts of the other 29 NHL teams, we’d predict at least 7-11 goaltending spots currently available for next season…

   - Buffalo & San Jose could be the biggest shoppers should Anders Lindback and/or Antti Niemi walk unrestricted when their contracts expire in July. Both teams have historic backups contracted 1 more year (BUF- Chad Johnson, SJS- Matt Stalock). Each franchise could be looking for 50-70 games of goaltending to fill.

   - Edmonton, with Viktor Fasth becoming an UFA, and Ben Scrivens only under contract 1 more year, could field suitors to play anywhere from 30-60 games go goaltending to fill.

• Arizona, Calgary, Columbus, Dallas, NY Islanders, Philadelphia & Pittsburgh could also be looking for (back-up) goaltending this off-season:

   Why is it 7-11 spots “at least?”

   Looking over incoming contract gaps isn’t everything to consider. There are some goalies who are currently set to be under contract in 2015-16, but could be bought out or buried in the minors in the next 6 months.

   What goalies are the likeliest to get buried or bought out in the off-season?

• Ondrej Pavelec, Winnipeg Jets: With his below-average play, and rookie phenom Michael Hutchinson emerging as the franchise’s top-dog… The final 2 years of Pavelec’s deal could logically be bought out in June. With Winnipeg among the lowest-payroll clubs in the NHL, Talbot’s $1.45 million + Hutchinson’s $0.575 million could/would be the best bang-for-buck duo of netminding in quite some time.

• Niklas Backstrom, Minnesota Wild: Similar to the above, Backstrom has 1 year left on his contract and has not put up quality numbers. Minnesota, whom has youngster Darcy Kuempfer under contract, is also set to lose Devon Dubynk & Josh Harding to free agency. Nobody would be surprised at a Backstroke buyout.

• Cam Ward, Carolina Hurricanes: Notice the pattern? Relatively high cap hit on the final year of a hefty contract, coupled with below-average goaltending numbers in 2014-15, Ward is also a strong candidate to be bought out. It’s highly conceivable Carolina would free up room with a buyout to shop the market for someone to split time with Antoine Khudobin. 

• Mike Smith, Arizona Coyotes: While a 2015 buyout of Smith seems unlikely despite his disappointing 2014-15 campaign, Arizona will likely seek a back-up. If Arizona is open to the possibility of seeking a new starter in lieu of Talbot... a feasible course of action could be to acquire Talbot, and buyout Smith in 2016 before offering Talbot a new contract extension. Smith is under contract until 2019. 

• James Reimer, Toronto Maple Leafs: Should Toronto seek to couple Jonathan Bernier with a different goalie capable of playing 25-45 games other than Reimer, unless traded, could be bought out of his final contract year. Toronto will be under enormous pressure to improve this off-season, and made the slick salary cap trade of David Clarkson-for-Nathan Horton, to free up millions of dollars in theoretical spending (should Horton remain on Long Term IR as expected). 

* = Restricted Free Agent on July 1st, 2015

   That's great... So what is Talbot’s trade value?

   We know there’s 7-11 goalie spots, with perhaps more should buyouts or AHL-burials come about. There’s only 2 or 3 bonafide #1 goaltending spots, with the rest being back-ups or fifty-fifty splitters. 

   The other side of the coin is: what is Talbot’s competition in filling these 2015-16 open spots? 

   List of Top-15 outgoing Unrestricted Free Agent goaltenders with expiring contracts on July 1, 2015:

• D. Dubynk
• A. Niemi
• V. Fasth
• A. Hammond
• M. Neuvirth
• K. Ramo
• J. Gustavsson
• J. Enroth
• A. Lindback
• R. Emery
• T. Greiss
• D. Ellis
• C. McElhinney
• J. Harding
• R. Bachman

   List of current 2nd/3rd string goalies under contract who could be traded to other teams as a 1st/2nd string goalie?

• BOS: N. Svedberg / M. Subban
• CHI: S. Darling / A. Raanta
• COL: R. Berra / C. Pickard
• TBL: A. Vasilevski / K. Gudlevskis
• WSH: J. Peters / P. Grubauer 

   So there are a lot of goalies out there to fill the 7-15 goalie spots available for next season. Again, what is Talbot’s trade value?

• A recent comparable to a goalie (similar to Talbot) being traded straight up for value was Corey Schneider in June 2013. At the time of his trade, Schneider had similar characteristics as Talbot does now (age, statistics, similar risk with investing in goalie as franchise starter). However... Talbot will have only played roughly half the NHL minutes as Schneider, making his sample size less, thus less proof that Talbot could be a legitimate big-minute NHL goalie. Schneider had more than triple Talbot’s ’15-’16 cap hit, but double the years under contract at the time of his trade.

      The Vancouver Canucks traded Schneider’s remaining contract year before unrestricted free agency to the New Jersey Devils on June 30th, 2013 for the 1st Round (9th overall) pick of the ’13 draft.

• 
  

• The last time the NY Rangers traded a player with similar contract stature for a lone draft pick? When they traded Derek Dorsett to the Vancouver Canucks on June 27th, 2014 for their  3rd Round (85th overall) draft pick in the ’14 draft.

  Conclusion:

   If Schneider fetched a 1st round & Dorsett fetched a 3rd round, it wouldn’t be the wildest thought in the world to figure Cam Talbot’s trade value as something around a 2nd Round draft pick in the '15 draft. Talbot’s NHL career has less sample size than Schneider’s, but would certainly fetch more than Dorsett in terms of potential value to a franchise. 

• We predict that, alone, Talbot could be traded for a 2nd round pick in the off-season
• If an NHL club is really looking to upgrade goaltending, look for investment over the next stretch of seasons, NYR could probably throw in goaltending prospects Mackenzie Skapski, Brandon Halverson, or Igor Shestyorkin with Talbot for a 1st Round pick. Halverson & Shestyorkin both played in the latest World Juniors tournament, and Skapski recently became the lowest-drafted NHL goalie in history to record a shutout at age 20. 

   With the franchise contract protecting franchise goalie Henrik Lundqvist, coupled with New York’s strong crop of young up-and-coming goalies, it would make a lot of sense to deal Talbot and 1 or 2 prospects to teams willing to pay quality draft picks. Draft picks acquired in the summer can always be used as trade chips for the following trade deadline, especially when it comes to NHL clubs more designed to win games in the present than down the road. 

   If the NHL salary cap only increases a few million dollars in 2015-16, as suggested by the most recent reports, then the potentially cap-strapped Rangers could logically shave up to $875,000 by trading Talbot and signing a minimum-wage free agent replacement. We shouldn’t count on Skapski stepping in as a full-time 2nd string in 2015-16 as he is early on in his professional career and will likely be the AHL affiliate Hartford Wolf Pack’s starter, getting regularly tough playing time. 

Cam Talbot's last 10 games

   And while NYR General Manager Glen Sather has made some awful signings in New York, all 3 of his Cam Talbot signings have been significantly great value. If Talbot is indeed traded for a 2nd round draft pick, it will be a total gain for the franchise. Talbot was initially signed out of the NCAA (University of Alabama) after being undrafted. It was for the NHL minimum wage. Before playing his 1st NHL game, before Martin Biron's suddent retirement in 2013... Talbot was re-signed for a 1-year extension at the same cap hit as his initial contract. And earlier this year, well before Lundqvist's strained neck blood vessel injury, Talbot was signed to another 1-year extension, this time $1.45 million. 

  Of course there's still the chance he is not traded, and kept for the 2015-16 NYR campaign. If not sought to be a starter elsewhere, while in NY Talbot has demonstrated to be perhaps the premier NHL backup goaltender in the league.

   In summer of 2009, the NY Rangers traded a 5th round pick to Pittsburgh Penguins for NCAA (University of Alaska) goalie 23-year-old Chad Johnson. Safe to say, if traded, Cam Talbot would fetch more than that.

   

A Tale of Two Talbots - Cam's Fattest Rebound

It’s now been 17 dark, empty games since Henrik Lundqvist went down with the injury that would stress-test the Rangers goaltending depth for the first time since 2006.

Okay, it hasn’t been that bad without the most consistent goaltender of the last decade.  You’ve surely noticed the Rangers haven’t lost a step in the standings, and are now on pace to finish first in the NHL (check out the table in the right margin, as well as the quality writing elsewhere on Hockey Rodent).

So how have the Rangers managed to stay afloat without their all-world goaltender?

This is the tale of two Talbots.

It wasn’t long ago that the Rangers signed Cam Talbot to his first contract extension, a 1-year $1.45M pact that seemed part “thank you” and part “but you haven’t proved anything yet”.  He  played well in relief of Lundqvist in 2013-14, and stood out when Lundqvist’s contract extension was impacting the King’s game (not a proven theory, but it sure did seem like it).  The fact that Talbot even made the team last season was remarkable on its own.  Nobody saw the sudden retirement of Martin Biron coming, especially not in the first few weeks of the season.  Talbot moved into the backup role and finished the season with a .941 SV% and 1.61 GAA in 19 starts - more than you could ask for from your second in command in his first season.

So when the Lundqvist injury shocked the hockey world, Talbot was thrust into yet another opportunity.  Let’s take a look at his first 8 games since the Rangers sidelined Lundqvist.

Yikes! These are uncharacteristically bad numbers, even if he did pick up five wins.  Also, five of these games were on the road, but three of those games came against non-playoff teams.  There’s no denying how fun these games were to watch, but Rangers management may not have enjoyed the constant lead-changes and puck-handling gaffes that were becoming almost habitual.  And then the rumors started.

The Rangers had been linked to Antoine Vermette for months leading up to the trade deadline, as the center position was believed to be the weakest part of their roster.  With Talbot struggling, the focus shifted to possibly acquiring a veteran goaltender to lighten the load until Lundqvist returned.  An addition like this could handcuff the cap-crunched Rangers heading into the deadline.

Alain Vigneault saw an opportunity to give Talbot some rest (remember, this is the first time Talbot’s been a “number one” goalie in a couple of years), and Mackenzie Skapski was given his first NHL start against Buffalo, winning 3-1 after allowing a goal in the first 14 seconds of the game.  Since that game, Vigneault has handed the reigns to Talbot, and here’s what he has to show for it.

His numbers are... ridiculous.  It’s hard to say which statistic is the most impressive, but being named 3rd star of the week by the NHL is certainly on the list, an honor bestowed on Lundqvist only four times in his career.  If you pull out just his March numbers, it’s even more impressive:

Talbot has started off the month by facing four of the League’s top teams, and scooping up 7 out of 8 possible points.  We’ll let his individual numbers speak for themselves, though we can’t leave out that his shutout of the Blackhawks was the first by a Rangers goalie since 1969.

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Henrik Lundqvist is still the undisputed leader of this team, and 17 games isn’t going to change that, at least not this season.  Nobody should doubt that Talbot will be second-banana in April, but he does give the Rangers something that a playoff team never realizes it needs until it doesn’t have it: a solid backup goalie.  

Just ask Montreal...

And thinking a bit longer down the road, his $1.425M cap hit is sure looking pretty cheap right now, don’t you think?  I wonder what he’d fetch on the trade market...