So what does this mean? Let's evaluate the month-by-month implications of a few things:
When July 1st comes, before NY can sign any new contracts, there will already be $48.6 million tied up in 8 forwards, 5 defensemen and 2 goalies. Well... considering Drury will be injured & Redden will be re-waived to Hartford, it's really 7 forwards & 4 defensemen. That's 70% of the $70.6 million off-season cap.
xxxxxxxx ----- xxxxxxxx ----- M. Gaborik
xxxxxxxx ----- D. Stepan ----- xxxxxxxxx
W. Wolski - E. Christensen - M. Zuccarello
S. Avery ------ C. Drury -------- B. Prust
W. Redden --------- M. Staal
R. McDonagh ----- D. Girardi
M. Del Zotto------- xxxxxxxxx
H. Lundqvist
M. Biron
What happens when we sign UFA Brad Richards for $8 million / year? We now have spent $56.6 million, leaving us $13.8 million to sign 4 forwards & 3 defensemen.
Brandon Dubinsky will very likely go to arbitration and receive something in then neighborhood of $3.25 million / 1 year. Ryan Callahan may be extended through negotiation or arbitrate as well, probably for something a tad higher like $3.75 million. That's $7 million for the pair to be retained one more year, before going UFA in summer 2012.
We now have $6.8 million remaining to fill these final gaps:
xxxxxxxx ---- B. Richards ----- M. Gaborik
B. Dubinsky -- D. Stepan ----- R. Callahan
W. Wolski - E. Christensen - M. Zuccarello
S. Avery ------ xxxxxxxx -------- B. Prust
xxxxxxxxx --------- M. Staal
R. McDonagh ----- D. Girardi
M. Del Zotto------- xxxxxxxxx
H. Lundqvist
M. Biron
Brian Boyle has arbitration rights as well, and should look to be awarded about $2 million / 1 year if he arbitrates. Artem Anisimov does not have arbitration rights, so NYR can hold off on signing him until September if they so choose, which he'd receive roughly $1.75 million in a negotiated deal. Michael Sauer an arbitrate as well, where he'd likely receive something to the tune of $900,000 / 1 year. Additionally we'll assume a 7th defenseman is included for $750,000.
This leaves just $1.4 million remaining to fill the last remaining top-6 forward & top-4 defenseman gaps.
xxxxxxxx ---- B. Richards ----- M. Gaborik
B. Dubinsky -- D. Stepan ----- R. Callahan
W. Wolski --- A. Anisimov - M. Zuccarello
S. Avery ------ B. Boyle -------- B. Prust
E. Christensen
xxxxxxxxx --------- M. Staal
R. McDonagh ----- D. Girardi
M. Del Zotto ------- M. Sauer
7th Defenseman
H. Lundqvist
M. Biron
What if?... what if we bought out Redden in lieu of Drury? It would free up $4.67 million in cap space this year & $3.17 million the next two years. The downside? It would cost the cap $1.83 million per year for 3 years in which Redden wouldn't have otherwise been contracted. The proposition is that of trading the regular-season cap relief of Redden for 3 years in exchange for 6 years of a small tax to have more off-season cap relief the next 3 years.
What happens if Redden is waived the last week of June, before the buyout window closes?
Suddenly there's a little over $6 million to be spent on the remaining 2 roster gaps. We could go with a cheap winger and pricey market defenseman, or invest in two $3 million free agents. If we think that Dubinksy/Wolski/Avery are our top 3 left wingers, we could not even sign a forward and get a $6 million defenseman. Or, journeyman Vinny Prospal may be re-signed for another year.
Here's a loose example of what we're talking about, and what buying out Redden frees up in patchwork potential:
