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Friday, June 19, 2015

Top 10 (Realistic) Cam Talbot Trades

    The following are workshopped trade proposals regarding the recent Cam Talbot trade rumors, including the Edmonton Oilers, San Jose Sharks & Buffalo Sabres. Since we published this historical data on the historic trade value of draft picks a few days ago, I thought we’d try to carve out some realistic and precise trades that could feasibly happen.




   When comparing Talbot’s speculative future to that of what happened with Cory Schneider in 2013... it's important to be able to take the comparison with the appropriate grain of salt. Let’s compare the two trade-bait goaltenders:


   No, the New York Rangers are not in a position to demand a #9 overall pick straight-up for their goaltender, as the Canucks were able to reap off Schneider. But… Talbot’s stats, while of less sample size and quality, remain damn good. So there’s obvious merit to the list of suitors interested in acquiring his services.

  1. This is the 1st trade example idea we’ll submit for examination. Here, this really only makes sense if our trade partner (BUF, EDM or SJ) is trading for Cam Talbot under the assumption that Talbot is equivalent to a late 1st-Round draft pick.

or...


or...


Historical reference
On June 25, 2010… #22 & #113 traded for #27 & #57.

     2.  Again, we assume that teams are pursuing Talbot in a trade, and are still willing to treat him like a late 1st-Round draft pick in terms of absolute trade value:


  Essentially we have New York having its 2nd, 3rd & 4th Rounders being upgraded at Edmonton’s expense. The Rangers’ 2nd-Rounder moves up 2 pegs, their 3rd-Rounder moves up 10 pegs, & their 4th-Rounder moves up 2 pegs. But on the other hand, Edmonton believes it is upgrading it’s #33 overall, since Talbot is comparatively 3 to 8 pegs higher than a late 1st-Rounder.

or...


   While certainly more elaborate, it holds the same principal as the previous Edmonton trade example. If Talbot is treated by Buffalo as better than a #31 overall pick… this trade has the Rangers upgrade 1st, 2nd & 7th Rounders while Buffalo upgrades its 3rd & 4th. Once again, this only computes if Buffalo deems Talbot the equivalent of a late-1st-Rounder.

   3. Now we’ll begin to decrease Talbot’s perceived trade value. We’ll now say the market will trade where Talbot is treated as that of a #30, #31, #32, #33, #34 or #35 overall draft pick. The obvious suggestions (and frankly most realistic, in my opinion) now become:


or...


or...


Historical reference
On June 25, 2010… #30 traded for #35& #58.

   4. Yet if Talbot’s perceived value is even slightly lower than what we’ve been discussing… as in Talbot being treated more like a 2nd-Rounder in the late 30s or early 40s overall? Then rather than Talbot being an upgrade to their #33 overall, Edmonton begins to see at as a downgrade! This is also around the point where San Jose’s 2nd-Rounder can become a straight-up swap. In which case, something like one of these becomes more likely: 


or...


Historical reference
On June 21, 2008… #38 traded for #46 & #76.

Conclusion

   - We know the Oilers, Sharks & Sabres have expressed interest in Talbot
   - We know the Rangers likely have more to gain from Talbot than retaining him, as renewing his contract past 2016 seems unlikely at this point in time
   - We know the Rangers could include a body with Talbot in an effort to relieve NYR payroll for next season...
   - ...but we also know the Rangers could also trade Talbot in an effort to restore 2015 draft picks to the team, which has depleted its 2015 & 2016 draft picks en route to going "all in" on shopping upgrades such as Keith Yandle & Martin St. Louis.
   - The only "unknown" we deal with is how much these other teams are willing to give up. How much do they believe Talbot can be a cornerstone netminder? How much do they believe a long-term extension can be hashed out upon acquiring Cam? How much is a team willing to invest this summer for Talbot's future?

   These hypothetically brainstormed trades seem realistic. We can only wait and see what ultimately results in these bidding bubbles between now and the last weekend in June.