3 Questions the NY Rangers Will Answer This Summer

1. Do the Rangers have much salary cap room to pursue free agents?

   No, they do not.

(Note: If Brady Skjei is NOT ready for the NHL roster, he can remain in Hartford (AHL), and a $925k 7th defenseman can be signed in free agency)

   Looking over the NY Rangers salaries (estimates of Restricted Free Agents are in purple), the Rangers really only have a few million at most to spend on a few depth forwards. Unless they trade a major contract, which doesn’t seem terribly likely… this offseason will be quiet for Rangers fans. Which, honestly, isn’t a bad thing as this summer’s free agent class seems a bit stale compared to previous summers.

1. Will the Rangers keep Kevin Hayes at [3rd line] center, or revert him back to his natural position of winger?

   We’re not sure, but probably not.

   Hayes struggled as center in the postseason, often losing his minutes under Stepan & Brassard to that of 4th center Dominic Moore. In fact, during the regular season, Kevin Hayes finished DEAD LAST in league-wide face-off percentage (minimum 100 face-offs taken) sporting a shameful 36.3%. While Hayes, 23, finished 7th in rookie-of-the-year (Calder Trophy) voting… it seems being a centerman is not his forte.

   Viable options?

   Oscar Lindberg

   A restricted free agent (without arbitration rights) with a qualifying offer of $709,000… we’d estimate a 1-year deal worth about $725,000 or a 2-year deal worth $800,000. Lindberg played heavy minutes (as a center) in Hartford last year, and all indications point towards a serious chance at making the NHL roster in October. Can he be trusted with 3rd line minutes? Would having a couple of youngsters like Hayes & Lindberg on the 3rd line be good enough for a team concerned with immediate contention? If the Rangers don’t pursue any free agent centers this summer, it’s a good bet they’ll be relying on Lindberg from the getgo.

   Riley Nash

   A somewhat surprising unrestricted free agent, as the Carolina Hurricanes did not offer the 26-year-old center a qualifying offer this week, making him (somewhat surprisingly) available to the open market. Nash scored 25 points in 68 games last season, winning 50.9% of his 958 face-offs. While there’s a very good chance Nash will receive offers from other teams in excess of $1 million/year (which is more than the Rangers could realistically offer), Nash seems like one of the most attractive options for a 3rd center. He averaged 16:19 minutes per game last season, and was one of Carolina’s top penalty killers, averaging 1:41 kill time per contest. A long shot, but certainly an attractive idea for Broadway to, at the very least, investigate.

   Mark Arcobello

   Another surprising non-qualification was that of Arizona not tendering Arcobello, who played 77 games for 4 different teams last season. Arcobello, 27, won 50.2% of his 939 face-offs overall last year, while averaging just under 15 minutes per game, perfect for a 3rd line center’s role. The combination of bouncing around the league AND not being offered a mere $630,000 minimum qualifying offer may raise flags as to his ability in the league. Yet if his price is that low, he may be just the type of reclamation project Glen Sather could gamble on, sporting a low-risk low-reward offering. 

   Cody Hodgson

   An unrestricted free agent who was just recently bought out by the revamping Buffalo Sabres. Hodgson, drafted 10th overall 7 years ago, had an impactful rookie year with the Vancouver Canucks before getting traded to Buffalo in 2012. While his 2012-13 & 2013-14 seasons in Buffalo were acceptable (78 points in 150 games)… his 2014-15 season was a complete abomination. Not unlike the Sabres overall team performance, he scored an abysmally few amount of goals (6 goals in 1,002 minutes), leading to his recent contract buyout.

   Should Hodgson be in a position to sign for less than $1 million/year (which seems likely), the Rangers could be an interested suitor. Additionally, if Hodgson signs for under $1 million/year and turns out to be an undesirable forward, he can be buried into the minors without effecting the Rangers cap hit with a burial fee. Or, if Lindberg is the go-to 3rd center, Hodgson’s use as a taxi squad extra forward seems like an imaginable fit.

   Brad Richards

   An unrestricted free agent coming off a Cup-clinching campaign, Richards is one of the 28 eligible UFA skaters able to sign a performance bonus loaded contract. While his net worth will be certainly over $1 million/year (he signed for double that last summer)… the Rangers could feasibly acquire his services with a 1-year contract for $1 million or less in base pay (cap hit), but offer anywhere from $1 million to $4 million in (easily attainable) bonuses. We wrote about the NHL cap-crunch likely forcing teams to rely on performance-bonuses to accommodate the salary cap ceiling this summer, and a returning Richards could be an ideal specimen for the Rangers. However his age, and his potential stamina (he’s played 206 NHL games since October 2013) could raise concerns. Unlike other candidates we’re examining, Richards’ age means if he signs, his cap hit cannot be removed from the Rangers’ book via burial. With so little cap space, this could render the potential risk more than potential reward (unlike small-contract signings under the age of 35 who CAN be buried).

   Stephen Weiss

   Another UFA via buyout, Weiss’s career has been in a tailspin since his time with the Florida Panthers where he notched 394 points in 654 games from ages 18 to 30. After a season-ending injury in 2013, he never returned to his calibre after signing with the Detroit Red Wings that following summer. His injury problems have lingered, and questions of his remaining role in the NHL are rampant. Weiss, 32, would likely sign a relatively cheap 1-year deal with a team, should any team want him, to try and regain his previous form. Unlike expectations in Florida & Detroit, Weiss would clearly be expected to play sheltered minutes, likely playing between youngsters J.T. Miller, Emerson Etem, Jesper Fast and/or Kevin Hayes. 

1. Do the Rangers need to pursue a 3rd-or-4th-line forward specializing in penalty killing to fill Carl Haglein’s departure?

   This is an interesting question… here’s why:

   Hagelin (1:57 per game) was the Rangers’ premier winger to kill penalties, ranking just below Dominic Moore (2:07 per game) in shorthanded situations. Broadway finished 3rd in the East (and 6th in the league) in penalty killing, due in great part to Hagelin’s speedy defensive prowess. Etem, whom Hagelin was traded for last weekend, only averaged 0:27 of kill time per game. In other words, all else equal, that’s a full 90 seconds per game of “lost” kill time amongst forwards heading into July.

   To exacerbate this deficit: we have to seriously wonder if Moore, who turns 35 next month, can sustain over 2 minutes per game effectively, let alone call on him to increase his kill time any additional time. So the case may very well be the Rangers needing to replace as much as 2 full minutes from forwards.

   Does Broadway have options?

   Enter: Jesper Fast, current restricted free agent whom cemented his regularity on the roster as a full-time NHL’er last season. Fast marveled in defensive roles, averaging 1:06 penalty killing time per game. And at the ripe age of 23, Fast is an ideal candidate to (realistically) play more penalty kills without causing detriment to the team. 

   So let’s say Fast’s PK time-per-game jumps a full minute (from 1:06 to 2:06, which would be 1 second less than that of Moore’s).

   That still leaves (perhaps) a full 60 seconds of PK time per game to be sourced from somewhere.

   Stepan & Nash averaged 1:35 & 1:20 per game respectively. Considering both play top minutes during even strength as well as power play, it seems unlikely they could have much more to give. 

   Tanner Glass played 1:01 per game, and could feasibly have his time increased in this capacity. But a full minute more? Doubtful.

   This leaves Hayes (0:26), Zuccarello (0:22) & Brassard (0:14) as other PK’ers… of which are also unlikely to make effective jumps.

   So the real question is: how much will the current Rangers supplement Hagelin’s departure & Moore’s aging downslope?

   If the Rangers believe the deficit can be reduced to only 30 seconds of time missing, it won’t be a huge priority to seek assistance on the market. Conversely, if the Rangers are counting on a depth signing to make a relevant impact… the names of potential 3rd line centers we mentioned above may be pursued in order of PK ability. (Riley Nash with perhaps the most valuable PK skill set, playing 1:41 per game… and Brad Richards with the least valuable PK skill set, logging only 1 second on the kill per game).

Conclusion

   These 3 questions will be answered, one way or another, this summer. If Broadway makes a trade, say an exodus of Kevin Klein ($2.9 million per year cap hit) or Tanner Glass ($1.45 million per year cap hit)... that should indicate a potential change in cap space, let alone whatever the return should indicate. If the Rangers pursue a free agent center, it could indicate an insurance policy should Oscar Lindberg not be able to handle 3rd line minutes in October (though it would definitely indicate intent to place Hayes back on the wing). And finally, the franchise's faith in stepping up its penalty-killing depth amongst forwards (again, hedging against Lindberg's hit-or-miss role) should tell us how badly it views Hagelin's absence for shorthanded scenarios.

   Personally, I suspect a quiet off-season for New York, without any more trades or "big" names entering our headlines. However, given the topics we've discussed, there'll major team logic to infer from even the depthiest of depth signings. 

   Let free agency begin!

   

How The $71.4 million NHL Salary Cap Affects the NYR OffSeason

  

   








   NHL General Managers, NHL players, their agents, and the entire hockey blogosphere have learned the 2015-16 salary cap will be $71.4 million. If you’re viewing this blog, then chances are you’re at least a tad bit curious as to the obvious question: How will this affect the New York Rangers?

   The first priority remains the same as our previous weeks of articles: the Rangers must reduce their payroll this summer in order to comply by October 1st. 

    Here’s a look at the NY Rangers cap payroll for the 2015-16 season:

• The contracts in purple indicate that player is a Restricted Free Agent this summer, and the figure in purple is the minimally realistic prediction as to what they could sign for on a 1-year deal.
• The contracts in grey indicate that player’s contract is on the books, thus NOT a free agent.
• The contracts in blue indicate the 2015-16 NHL minimum age as a theoretical cap hit for whatever depth players the Rangers sign this summer. In this instance, the extra skaters are all conservatively presumed to have minimum-wage ($575k/yr) deals.

   Here we see the team looks to be a few million short of being cap-compliant. And this graph represents best-case scenarios for the Restricted Free Agents re-signing at the realistically cheapest 1-year contracts.

   At best, the Rangers are a little less than $2 million over the salary cap this summer, in our extremely conservative estimations.

   So where to cut? Hmmm…

CAM TALBOT

• Exporting Talbot in a trade, and ultimately replacing him with a lesser salary, is the easiest (and as of late, trendiest) means to reduce overall payroll.Trading Talbot away, and ultimately replacing him with that of a, say, $645,000/year goalie… would be a $800,000 reduction on the team’s books.

DEREK STEPAN

• In a 1-year contract, we predict Stepan to sign for no less than $6 million. 
• A multi-year contract would likely range from $6 mil to $7 mil.
• The most similar comparable to ascertaining Stepan’s theoretical value this summer is that of Ryan O’Reilly in Colorado… O’Reilly signed a 2-year $12 million contract shortly before an arbitration hearing was scheduled.

   Our prediction for Stepan’s year-to-year rate is something like:

• 1 years: $6.000000 / year ($06,000,000)
• 2 years: $6.200000 / year ($12,400,000)
• 3 years: $6.333333 / year ($17,999,999)
• 4 years: $6.500000 / year ($26,000,000)
• 5 years: $6.700000 / year ($33,500,000)
• 6 years: $6.900000 / year ($41,400,000)
• 7 years: $7.142857 / year ($49,999,999)
• 8 years: $7.125000 / year ($57,000,000)

   Stepan is an extremely vital asset for Broadway, serving as their wonderfully productive 1st Line Center. Unless traded within the window, there’s two more seasons of Derek to play as a New York Ranger before entering Unrestricted Free Agency. 

  Sather could take the 1-year discount, delaying the probable payday contract to Stepan until next summer… although Stepan’s pricetag could easily (and likely) be higher during this time next summer. 

   Let’s hold off on figuring a course-of-action for signing Stepan until we can appreciate what assets on the team may be more expendable than the team’s #1 center. 

CARL HAGELIN

• With Restricted Free Agency, Hagelin may be headed to NHL salary arbitration next month, if he and his team cannot hash out an amicable agreement beforehand.
• Parallel to last summer’s arbitration decision for that of Vladimir Sobotka (in St. Louis)… we feel a 1-year $2.8 million contract is roughly what Hagelin could/should/would be awarded.

   Should the Rangers and Hagelin agree long-term? Our prediction for Hagelin’s year-to-year rate is something like:

• 1 years: $2,800,000 / year ($02,800,000)
• 2 years: $3,000,000 / year ($06,000,000)
• 3 years: $3,333,333 / year ($09,999,999)
• 4 years: $3,500,000 / year ($14,000,000)
• 5 years: $3,600,000 / year ($18,000,000)
• 6 years: $3,750,000 / year ($22,500,000)
• 7 years: $3,642,857 / year ($24,499,999)
• 8 years: $3,625,000 / year ($29,000,000)

STEPAN vs HAGELIN?

   This duo represent the the lone pair of NYR Restricted Free Agents to a) have the right of salary arbitration, b) make the most money of any of the other RFA’s, and c) be only two years removed from Unrestricted Free Agency.

WHICH DESERVES A LONG-TERM DEAL MORE?

   The answer, almost irrefutably, is Stepan. He is a #1 center, is a coveted asset to any NHL franchise. A cornerstone center, at the young age of 25, is expected to make $6 or $7 million on  a long-term contract.

   As for Hagelin? Two things to note when pondering his gravity of Broadway’s cap structure:

• A) Hagelin is a 3rd line winger, with the upside attribute of being a phenomenal penalty killer. 
• B) Perhaps Hagelin’s most valuable attribute to his contribution to an NHL team is his speed. Yet Hagelin, who turns 27 years old in August, will likely be losing pepper off his footwork fastball.

   In other words, what do you think is the easiest roster change to “correct or “replace” for cheaper money? A $6 million center who plays 19 minutes per game, or a $2.8 million winger who plays 15 minutes per game?

JESPER FAST (24), J.T. MILLER (23) & OSCAR LINDBERG (24)

• All three forwards are Restricted Free Agents without the right to salary arbitration
• We predict Miller’s 1-year extension rate is $50,000 more expensive than Fast’s, despite Miller’s minimum qualifying offer being $100,000 greater than that of Miller’s
• Lindberg, who had a wonderful season in the American Hockey League last season, is fully expected to make the jump to the NHL next year. His qualifying offer is few thousand less than his projected 1-year minimum cost of $725,000

   With all the trade rumors surround Cam Talbot, why don’t we hear too much about any of these assets being included in a packaged trade?

   Because with the trio reasonably projected to make less than $1 million/year on respective 1-year deals… it does not seem an aspect where Broadway can be in a position to “cut the fat.” In other words, what forwards could be returned in a trade which would replace the roles of Fast/Miller/Lindberg while accounting for lesser money? 

   It seems highly unlikely.

   So…

   Let’s assume Cam Talbot is traded somewhere for draft pick(s) and/or prospect(s). And let’s also assume that the Rangers replace his role as Backup Goalie with an Unrestricted Free Agent signing this summer, of whom signs for 1-yr $575,000 (the NHL minimum wage).

   How does this change things?

   So even if all four RFA’s are signed for the most realistically stingy 1-year contracts… and even if Talbot is traded and replaced with a goalie of minimal cost… we see the team remains $275,000 over the cap.

   Not to mention, having the 21st, 22nd & 23rd roster spots all at the NHL minimum wage is a stretch for this example as well. 

   So…?

   Talbot cannot be the only Ranger to be exported this offseason. 

   

   There must be at least one other NY Ranger to be exiled, and replaced with a cheaper substitute, for the team to render itself cap compliant.

   Before we finish, let’s just remind ourselves of which NY Rangers have No-Trade and/or No-move Clauses this summer, making them the peskiest players to attempt to move?

   So while there is a lot of salary cap meat-on-the-bone with this list of NY Rangers… it would seem especially cumbersome to orchestrate a trade involving any one of them. Particularly packaging someone in a Talbot trade to either Edmonton or Buffalo, where one of these players’ approval of such a trade would seem even less likely. 

   So…

   What about the Rangers under contract with the highest cap hits whom are without any NM or NT clauses?

   What can we conclude?

   As we’ve proposed multiple times on this blog, the seemingly most “replaceable” players to dump are Carl Hagelin and/or Kevin Klein.

   Both have theoretical salary caps just south of $3 million, while their respective roles are that of 3rd line wing & 3rd pair defense. 

   McDonagh’s cap hit of $4.7 million is a bargain, considering the Captain’s role on the team.

   Stepan, Kreider & Yandle are all being paid “fairly”, given their respective roles (and Power Play capability).

   Any trade involving Kreider, McDonagh, Stepan, and/or Yandle would be as big a summer surprise as it is (at the moment) highly unlikely.

   Thus, now we see why Kevin Klein & Carl Hagelin have been the most frequent throw-in Rangers skaters mumbled amidst the weeks of Talbot trade rumors. Neither player is a toxic asset (actually both have done very well as Rangers, and would not be traded due to poor performance or sour reputation). Yet when looking for a soul to shed some salary, Hagelin & Klein are the “likeliest” suitors.

   So we will examine two different scenarios:

SCENARIO A:

• Trade Cam Talbot & Kevin Klein for draft pick(s) and/or prospect(s)
• Sign Derek Stepan to a long-term deal worth $6.6 mil/yr [which we predict would be a four or five year deal]
• Sign Carl Hagelin to a 1-year, $2.8 mil deal
• Sign J.T. Miller to a 2-year, $1.2 mil/yr deal
• Sign Jesper Fast to a 2-year, $975k/yr deal
• Sign Oscar Lindberg to a 2-year, $800k/yr deal
• Sign a 7th D, such as Matt Hunwick, to a 2-year, $875k/yr deal
• Assume Brady Skjei will be NHL-ready for duties on the Broadway’s 3rd defensive pair
• Sign a backup goalie to a 1-year, $700k deal ($125k more than the league minimum)
• Sign a 13th “spare” forward to 1-year, $675k deal ($100k more than the league minimum)
• Sign a 14th “spare” forward to a 1-year, $650k deal ($75k more than the league minimum)

• Interestingly enough, we assume if Klein is moved, that the services of Matt Hunwick (hypothetically signed for a  2-year, $875k contract) and rookie Brady Skjei will be enough “in-house” promotion to replace Klein’s role. 
• To do this, the Rangers must accommodate a seven defensemen with only two Right-handed pointmen. If this is the case, why don’t we slide McDonagh to the right point? He played well at the 2014 Winter Olympics in the off-hand position of RD. 
• This also frees up enough cap space to sign RFA’s Fast, Lindberg, Miller & Stepan to multi-year “bridge” deals.
• We can also beef up the 2nd goalie, as well as 13th & 14th “spare” forwards respective cap hits, to a few notches above the league minimum.

   Scenario A brings us to a 23-man roster snugly beneath the ceiling with $50,000 in cap space.

   - Talbot is replaced by a free agent for approximately half of Talbot's 2015-16 salary

   - Klein is replaced by a combination of Skjei & Hunwick

   - Martin St. Louis is replaced by the promotion of Oscar Lindberg

   - James Sheppard & Chris Mueller are replaced by a $675k free agent & $650k free agent respectively

SCENARIO B:

• Trade Cam Talbot & Carl Hagelin for draft pick(s) and/or prospect(s)
• Sign Derek Stepan to a 1-year contract 
• Sign J.T. Miller to a 2-year, $1.25 mil/yr deal
• Sign Jesper Fast to a 2-year, $975k/yr deal
• Sign Oscar Lindberg to a 2-year, $800k/yr deal
• Sign a 7th defenseman to a 1-year, $800k deal
• Sign a backup goalie to a 1-year, $725k deal ($125k more than the league minimum)
• Sign a 13th “spare” forward to 1-year, $675k deal ($100k more than the league minimum)
• Sign a 14th “spare” forward to a 1-year, $600k deal ($25k more than the league minimum)

   - Talbot is replaced by a free agent for approximately half of Talbot's 2015-16 salary

   - Hagelin is theoretically replaced by Fast

   - Hayes switches to wing, while his 3rd center roster spot is replaced by a $1.5 million free agent

   - Martin St. Louis is replaced by the promotion of Oscar Lindberg

   - James Sheppard & Chris Mueller are replaced by a $675k free agent & $600k free agent respectively

   - Matt Hunwick is either brought back for, or replaced by, a $800k free agent defenseman

Scenario B brings us to a 23-man roster snugly beneath the ceiling with $25,000 in cap space.

*Important Note: While the sum of $1.5 million for pursuing a 3rd line winger or defenseman seems awfully underwhelming, the NY Rangers will have as much as $2,505,000 available in performance bonuses to dish out this summer while remaining below the bonus cushion. Should the Rangers wish to "gamble," and assume Kevin Hayes will not activate his maximum potential bonus amount of $2.85 million, the Rangers could theoretically dish out $3 or $4 million in bonuses this summer and still not break the cushion. Thus, a $1.5 million 3rd line forward could actually be compensated $2.5 - $4.5 million in cap-haven performance bonuses, attracting the highest quality of forwards willing to sign on for a 3rd line role.

Conclusion

   These two scenarios seem to be the likeliest ones for a vague picture of the Rangers' team come October. Neither involve trades which tinker with the nucleus of role players pivotal to the team's chances at a Stanley Cup. Simply put: Hagelin, Klein & Talbot will be missed, but not irreplaceably so. 

   There's no reason to think a trade involving Lundqvist, Nash, McDonagh, Staal or Girardi will take place this summer. If not for the unlikely possibility of any of these players waiving there NMC/NTC's, the simple fact that Scenarios A & B demonstrate there should be ZERO pressure at all for Glen Sather to make such a deal.

   Yes, the Rangers need to cut salary. Aptly put, the roster will require metaphorical off-season surgery. Yet while the deportation and replacement of Hagelin, Klein and/or Talbot represent minor surgeries like wisdom teeth removal or laser-eye... why in the world would Broadway go a few steps further and voluntarily engage in open-heart surgery by way of dealing Lundqvist, Nash, Stepan, McDonagh, Staal or Girardi?

   This is not a team looking to make huge adjustments after a largely disappointing 2014-15 season. The team won the President's Trophy, was a viable threat until the end, and was 20 minutes away from their 2nd consecutive Stanley Cup Final. Unlike teams like Colorado, Dallas or Toronto... this is not a team with political carte blanche to rewire all aspects of the roster.

 This is a team that should be considerably more apt to trim around the edges than rebuild its central configuration.

   It doesn't make much sense for the Rangers to move the big pieces... at least not quite yet.