Earlier in the season, it seemed Miller's cost of a new contract this summer would not be much higher than his $777,000 qualifying offer. In fact as little as a few months ago, there was no reason to think Miller would receive anything outside the $800,000-900,000 range on a 1-or-2-year deal. But with Miller suddenly becoming a relevant contributor to the Metropolitan Division champions (including a game-winning-assist & game-winning-goal vs. Winnipeg & Minnesota last week)... the question is now blooming: how much will J.T. Miller cost to keep this summer?
Since he is coming off of his entry-level contract, Miller does not have arbitration rights. Glen Sather has historically signed young forwards in this scenario to two-year 'bridge' contracts. So, in the interest of getting a feel for Miller's possible costs, I assembled 5 players whom could be noted as 'comparable.'
These 5 players all:
- Are players signed to a 2-year bridge deal following their entry-level-contract
- All in their early 20's
- All, like Miller, had no right to salary arbitration when signing their new contract
Let's look at the data:
Miller has less years of age, career games, & career points-per-game than the average. Miller's pedigree is the only above-average characteristic.
So: is a 2-year $1.7 million/year contract something J.T. Miller can realistically be offered? Sather has a propensity to lowball his helpless restricted free agents... What would Miller be worth on a 1-year deal? $1.5 million?
The playoffs can make-or-break these numbers. Is it inconceivable for every postseason game-winning-goal scored by Miller to equate to a $25,000 increase to the figures we are currently discussing?
If the chart is any indicator... then 2.45% of the current $69 million salary cap would be $1.69 million/year.