Talbot Trade Tinkering: Final Edition

   We’ve written a lot about Rangers understudy goaltender Cam Talbot on this blog over the months. With the NHL Draft beginning tonight, and Talbot’s trade highly likely, I thought we’d submit one more piece pertinent to Talbot.

   In our March 5th article Sather’s Busy Summer, we vaguely speculated whether Talbot would be cost-cutting tradebait come the offseason.

   In our March 20th article Cam Talbot’s Value & The 2015 Goalie Market, we were the first to break down the looming probability of Talbot’s worth in a trade. It was easy to conclude that Buffalo, Calgary, Edmonton & San Jose would be the logical suitors of Talbot’s reception. 

   A week ago we listed the Top 10 (Realistic) Cam Talbot Trades during draft weekend, speculative of how valuable an asset Talbot would be to the highest bidder.

   On Wednesday we suggested Talbot’s expulsion was inevitable, as the NY Rangers will need to cut Talbot, and at least one additional Ranger, to adjust to the $71.4 million salary cap next season.

   Today I’d like to briefly suggest some alternative possibilities of return via trading Talbot. While budgetary reduction will be a paramount priority for Broadway this summer, it doesn’t completely rule out the idea of acquiring cheaply-contracted bodies in the looming Talbot deal.

   So what about a Talbot trade involving….?

Chad Johnson (Buffalo Sabres)

   Similar goalie to Talbot in the sense of contract and history as the Rangers backup. Johnson has one year remaining in his contract ($1.3 mil cap hit) before Unrestricted Free Agency in July 2016, also like Talbot. A bodily exchange of Johnson for Talbot alone would only be a net cap hit savings of $150,000 for the Rangers (they need to cut 10 times that this summer). However, if Johnson’s salary were to be retained by Buffalo, the “cap savings” for the Rangers could range from $150,000 to $800,000. Johnson has backed up 3 different NHL teams in the past 3 years (Arizona, Boston & Islanders) racking up 50 NHL games since leaving the Rangers organization in 2012. Johnson recently turned 29 years old.

   Joni Ortio (Calgary Flames)

   Calgary’s 3rd string, AHL-starting goalie, who’s been making a lot of noise about capability to transition into the big league. Ortio has played 97 AHL games with the Flames’ affiliate minor league team, and played 6 NHL games this past season. If Calgary is apt to acquire Talbot, having he and Jonas Hiller as a tandem next season… that would leave the 24-year-old Finnish goalkeeper looking for a new franchise with more opportunity. With goalie prospects Mac Skapski, Brandon Halverson & Igor Shesterkin are 3 or 4 years younger than Orito, it would give New York an immediate option to backup Lundqvist in October, while allowing the pipeline prospects to continue to develop below. Ortio's cap hit clocks in at $600,000; attractive to a team like the Rangers as it's only $25,000 above the league minimum.

 Oscar Klefbom - Edmonton Oilers

   Edmonton’s Swedish prospective defenseman whom has played 77 NHL games despite being 21 years of age. More impressively, Klefbom averaged 21 minutes per game for the dreary Oilers last season, impressing the hockey community with his tremendous upside. Klefbom is on the final year of his entry-level contract, which carries a meek $894,167 cap hit (with up to $350,000 in performance bonuses). If Broadway is looking to cut salary, and perhaps include Kevin Klein in a deal… Klefbom for Klein would save the Rangers just north of $2 million in cap savings next season. With a rich crop of budding NHL defensemen, including Martin Marincin (23) & Darnell Nurse (20)… Edmonton could be subject to unloading one of their bullion bluechips at a shot in acquiring a potential franchise goalie in Talbot.

Nail Yakupov - Edmonton Oilers

   The former #1 overall pick in 2012, Yakupov is signed for 2 more seasons at $2.5 million per season. Should the Oilers retain more than 42% of Yakupov’s salary, a straight-up swap for Talbot would be a payroll cut for the Rangers. But for more materialistic speculation, consider these subjective nuggets of thought:

• To Rangers fans, Yakupov trade rumors have a reminiscent feel to that of a former “Glen-Sather-reclaimation-project” in that of Nik Zherdev. Yakupov has hardly smashed the league with goal-scoring since his debut (42 goals in 192 games), yet was clearly taken #1 overall for his offensive potential. Should Carl Hagelin be cut from Broadway for salary reasons, Yakupov would be a perfect fit for New York’s 3rd line.
• Even more of an “out there” train of thought: the Rangers have not had a Russian-born NY Ranger since the days of Fedor Tyutin (who was coincidentally sent to Columbus for Zherdev). Is that relevant? Probably not. Except: If the Rangers want to woo European prospect Pavel Buchnevich to North America next season, having one of the highest-touted Russian youngsters in the lockerroom certainly couldn’t hurt. Buchnevich cited his English was extremely poor, so there’s probably not much allure to a franchise full of folks who don’t speak the language. Remember how Sergei Gonchar acted as a translator for Evgeni Malkin in his rookie year? If attempting to persuade Buchnevich to come to Rome, besides money, it could be an additional boon in having young Yakupov.

2016 Draft Picks?

   If the NY Rangers can’t get what they want in 2015 draft picks, probably due to a miscommunication of Talbot’s specific value in terms of picks… another option is acquiring 2015 picks instead. Why?

• As we showed in our article about the historic measurements of trading draft picks, it seems teams are willing to “gamble” on picks’ particular worth when trading Year 1 pick(s) for Year 2 pick(s). Why would this happen? If two parties are at a mutual disagreement of both assigning value AND where their team will finish next season in the standings? It presents itself as a mutually amicable atmosphere for a now-for-later draft pick swap.

      If the Edmonton Oilers believe they will be a contending team in 2015-16, but don’t think Talbot is worth the #16 overall pick tonight… and simultaneously, New York believes Edmonton will flop once again next season, and believe Talbot IS worth such a pick… why not trade Talbot for Edmonton’s 2015 1st Round Pick? In this example, Edmonton would think it was giving New York a pick worse than #16, while New York thought it could very well be a BETTER pick. If two teams come to a conflicting conclusion, trading for more uncertain picks in a year can be a practical course of action.

• Additionally, the NY Rangers could use the 2016 Draft Pick(s) acquired as an arsenal of exportable assets come the 2016 Trade Deadline. If New York finds itself in another successful season, looking to beef up for another deep playoff run, the Rangers offering draft picks to deadline sellers could be a great way of procuring reenforcement come March. 

 Conclusion

   We’ll wait and see how Talbot’s fate plays out as the draft kicks off this evening. With the NY Rangers looking to cut $1.5 to $2 million in theoretical salary cap this summer, the Talbot trade could be an indicator of future moves. Should New York liquidate Talbot for draft picks and non-NHL prospects, we see a significant portion of necessary payroll has been cut, and trimming the rest could be very minor. However, if a equal-or-greater contract is returned, it signals Sather will be inclined to make bigger moves in the coming months to ultimately get a cap-compliant roster.

   Get the popcorn out folks, its NHL Draft Weekend.

Top 10 (Realistic) Cam Talbot Trades

    The following are workshopped trade proposals regarding the recent Cam Talbot trade rumors, including the Edmonton Oilers, San Jose Sharks & Buffalo Sabres. Since we published this historical data on the historic trade value of draft picks a few days ago, I thought we’d try to carve out some realistic and precise trades that could feasibly happen.

   When comparing Talbot’s speculative future to that of what happened with Cory Schneider in 2013... it's important to be able to take the comparison with the appropriate grain of salt. Let’s compare the two trade-bait goaltenders:

   No, the New York Rangers are not in a position to demand a #9 overall pick straight-up for their goaltender, as the Canucks were able to reap off Schneider. But… Talbot’s stats, while of less sample size and quality, remain damn good. So there’s obvious merit to the list of suitors interested in acquiring his services.

1. This is the 1st trade example idea we’ll submit for examination. Here, this really only makes sense if our trade partner (BUF, EDM or SJ) is trading for Cam Talbot under the assumption that Talbot is equivalent to a late 1st-Round draft pick.

or...

or...

Historical reference

On June 25, 2010… #22 & #113 traded for #27 & #57.

     2.  Again, we assume that teams are pursuing Talbot in a trade, and are still willing to treat him like a late 1st-Round draft pick in terms of absolute trade value:

  Essentially we have New York having its 2nd, 3rd & 4th Rounders being upgraded at Edmonton’s expense. The Rangers’ 2nd-Rounder moves up 2 pegs, their 3rd-Rounder moves up 10 pegs, & their 4th-Rounder moves up 2 pegs. But on the other hand, Edmonton believes it is upgrading it’s #33 overall, since Talbot is comparatively 3 to 8 pegs higher than a late 1st-Rounder.

or...

   While certainly more elaborate, it holds the same principal as the previous Edmonton trade example. If Talbot is treated by Buffalo as better than a #31 overall pick… this trade has the Rangers upgrade 1st, 2nd & 7th Rounders while Buffalo upgrades its 3rd & 4th. Once again, this only computes if Buffalo deems Talbot the equivalent of a late-1st-Rounder.

   3. Now we’ll begin to decrease Talbot’s perceived trade value. We’ll now say the market will trade where Talbot is treated as that of a #30, #31, #32, #33, #34 or #35 overall draft pick. The obvious suggestions (and frankly most realistic, in my opinion) now become:

or...

or...

Historical reference

On June 25, 2010… #30 traded for #35& #58.

   4. Yet if Talbot’s perceived value is even slightly lower than what we’ve been discussing… as in Talbot being treated more like a 2nd-Rounder in the late 30s or early 40s overall? Then rather than Talbot being an upgrade to their #33 overall, Edmonton begins to see at as a downgrade! This is also around the point where San Jose’s 2nd-Rounder can become a straight-up swap. In which case, something like one of these becomes more likely: 

or...

Historical reference

On June 21, 2008… #38 traded for #46 & #76.

Conclusion

   - We know the Oilers, Sharks & Sabres have expressed interest in Talbot

   - We know the Rangers likely have more to gain from Talbot than retaining him, as renewing his contract past 2016 seems unlikely at this point in time

   - We know the Rangers could include a body with Talbot in an effort to relieve NYR payroll for next season...

   - ...but we also know the Rangers could also trade Talbot in an effort to restore 2015 draft picks to the team, which has depleted its 2015 & 2016 draft picks en route to going "all in" on shopping upgrades such as Keith Yandle & Martin St. Louis.

   - The only "unknown" we deal with is how much these other teams are willing to give up. How much do they believe Talbot can be a cornerstone netminder? How much do they believe a long-term extension can be hashed out upon acquiring Cam? How much is a team willing to invest this summer for Talbot's future?

   These hypothetically brainstormed trades seem realistic. We can only wait and see what ultimately results in these bidding bubbles between now and the last weekend in June.

Cam Talbot's Trade Value & The 2015 Goalie Market

 Why are people talking about trading Cam Talbot in the summer?

   The more impressive Talbot plays as the NY Ranger’s acting starter goalie since Henrik Lundqvist’s injury, the higher is trade value is. If a rival NHL team is looking for goaltending, the more Talbot makes a case as a legitimate NHL goalie, the more that team would be willing to give New York in a trade. With no disrespect to Talbot, nor denial of his exquisite play over the last several weeks... trading Talbot in the summer remains a very logical possibility.

   Is there a goalie controversy in New York?

   No. There is not. Talbot has had a spectacular career since breaking into the league, and has successfully performed when asked to be a starter. But Lundqvist is on the first year of a massive $8.5 million per year contract, and will not be “dethroned” by anybody anytime soon. This is another reason why Talbot June trade rumors have already become speculative here in March.

   What is Talbot’s trade value?

   It’s tough to say or measure what NYR could get for Talbot in a trade. There are a number of factors to consider when evaluating a goalie’s trade value in the off-season.

   What factors are there to consider?

      For starters:

• How many goaltending spots/games are up-for-grabs in 2015-16?
• How many goaltenders will be in the 2015 unrestricted free agent pool?
• How convinced will rival General Managers be in Talbot as a (potential) franchise asset?

   How many goaltending spots are currently up for grabs in 2015-16?

   Looking over the contracts of the other 29 NHL teams, we’d predict at least 7-11 goaltending spots currently available for next season…

   - Buffalo & San Jose could be the biggest shoppers should Anders Lindback and/or Antti Niemi walk unrestricted when their contracts expire in July. Both teams have historic backups contracted 1 more year (BUF- Chad Johnson, SJS- Matt Stalock). Each franchise could be looking for 50-70 games of goaltending to fill.

   - Edmonton, with Viktor Fasth becoming an UFA, and Ben Scrivens only under contract 1 more year, could field suitors to play anywhere from 30-60 games go goaltending to fill.

• Arizona, Calgary, Columbus, Dallas, NY Islanders, Philadelphia & Pittsburgh could also be looking for (back-up) goaltending this off-season:

   Why is it 7-11 spots “at least?”

   Looking over incoming contract gaps isn’t everything to consider. There are some goalies who are currently set to be under contract in 2015-16, but could be bought out or buried in the minors in the next 6 months.

   What goalies are the likeliest to get buried or bought out in the off-season?

• Ondrej Pavelec, Winnipeg Jets: With his below-average play, and rookie phenom Michael Hutchinson emerging as the franchise’s top-dog… The final 2 years of Pavelec’s deal could logically be bought out in June. With Winnipeg among the lowest-payroll clubs in the NHL, Talbot’s $1.45 million + Hutchinson’s $0.575 million could/would be the best bang-for-buck duo of netminding in quite some time.

• Niklas Backstrom, Minnesota Wild: Similar to the above, Backstrom has 1 year left on his contract and has not put up quality numbers. Minnesota, whom has youngster Darcy Kuempfer under contract, is also set to lose Devon Dubynk & Josh Harding to free agency. Nobody would be surprised at a Backstroke buyout.

• Cam Ward, Carolina Hurricanes: Notice the pattern? Relatively high cap hit on the final year of a hefty contract, coupled with below-average goaltending numbers in 2014-15, Ward is also a strong candidate to be bought out. It’s highly conceivable Carolina would free up room with a buyout to shop the market for someone to split time with Antoine Khudobin. 

• Mike Smith, Arizona Coyotes: While a 2015 buyout of Smith seems unlikely despite his disappointing 2014-15 campaign, Arizona will likely seek a back-up. If Arizona is open to the possibility of seeking a new starter in lieu of Talbot... a feasible course of action could be to acquire Talbot, and buyout Smith in 2016 before offering Talbot a new contract extension. Smith is under contract until 2019. 

• James Reimer, Toronto Maple Leafs: Should Toronto seek to couple Jonathan Bernier with a different goalie capable of playing 25-45 games other than Reimer, unless traded, could be bought out of his final contract year. Toronto will be under enormous pressure to improve this off-season, and made the slick salary cap trade of David Clarkson-for-Nathan Horton, to free up millions of dollars in theoretical spending (should Horton remain on Long Term IR as expected). 

* = Restricted Free Agent on July 1st, 2015

   That's great... So what is Talbot’s trade value?

   We know there’s 7-11 goalie spots, with perhaps more should buyouts or AHL-burials come about. There’s only 2 or 3 bonafide #1 goaltending spots, with the rest being back-ups or fifty-fifty splitters. 

   The other side of the coin is: what is Talbot’s competition in filling these 2015-16 open spots? 

   List of Top-15 outgoing Unrestricted Free Agent goaltenders with expiring contracts on July 1, 2015:

• D. Dubynk
• A. Niemi
• V. Fasth
• A. Hammond
• M. Neuvirth
• K. Ramo
• J. Gustavsson
• J. Enroth
• A. Lindback
• R. Emery
• T. Greiss
• D. Ellis
• C. McElhinney
• J. Harding
• R. Bachman

   List of current 2nd/3rd string goalies under contract who could be traded to other teams as a 1st/2nd string goalie?

• BOS: N. Svedberg / M. Subban
• CHI: S. Darling / A. Raanta
• COL: R. Berra / C. Pickard
• TBL: A. Vasilevski / K. Gudlevskis
• WSH: J. Peters / P. Grubauer 

   So there are a lot of goalies out there to fill the 7-15 goalie spots available for next season. Again, what is Talbot’s trade value?

• A recent comparable to a goalie (similar to Talbot) being traded straight up for value was Corey Schneider in June 2013. At the time of his trade, Schneider had similar characteristics as Talbot does now (age, statistics, similar risk with investing in goalie as franchise starter). However... Talbot will have only played roughly half the NHL minutes as Schneider, making his sample size less, thus less proof that Talbot could be a legitimate big-minute NHL goalie. Schneider had more than triple Talbot’s ’15-’16 cap hit, but double the years under contract at the time of his trade.

      The Vancouver Canucks traded Schneider’s remaining contract year before unrestricted free agency to the New Jersey Devils on June 30th, 2013 for the 1st Round (9th overall) pick of the ’13 draft.

• 
  

• The last time the NY Rangers traded a player with similar contract stature for a lone draft pick? When they traded Derek Dorsett to the Vancouver Canucks on June 27th, 2014 for their  3rd Round (85th overall) draft pick in the ’14 draft.

  Conclusion:

   If Schneider fetched a 1st round & Dorsett fetched a 3rd round, it wouldn’t be the wildest thought in the world to figure Cam Talbot’s trade value as something around a 2nd Round draft pick in the '15 draft. Talbot’s NHL career has less sample size than Schneider’s, but would certainly fetch more than Dorsett in terms of potential value to a franchise. 

• We predict that, alone, Talbot could be traded for a 2nd round pick in the off-season
• If an NHL club is really looking to upgrade goaltending, look for investment over the next stretch of seasons, NYR could probably throw in goaltending prospects Mackenzie Skapski, Brandon Halverson, or Igor Shestyorkin with Talbot for a 1st Round pick. Halverson & Shestyorkin both played in the latest World Juniors tournament, and Skapski recently became the lowest-drafted NHL goalie in history to record a shutout at age 20. 

   With the franchise contract protecting franchise goalie Henrik Lundqvist, coupled with New York’s strong crop of young up-and-coming goalies, it would make a lot of sense to deal Talbot and 1 or 2 prospects to teams willing to pay quality draft picks. Draft picks acquired in the summer can always be used as trade chips for the following trade deadline, especially when it comes to NHL clubs more designed to win games in the present than down the road. 

   If the NHL salary cap only increases a few million dollars in 2015-16, as suggested by the most recent reports, then the potentially cap-strapped Rangers could logically shave up to $875,000 by trading Talbot and signing a minimum-wage free agent replacement. We shouldn’t count on Skapski stepping in as a full-time 2nd string in 2015-16 as he is early on in his professional career and will likely be the AHL affiliate Hartford Wolf Pack’s starter, getting regularly tough playing time. 

Cam Talbot's last 10 games

   And while NYR General Manager Glen Sather has made some awful signings in New York, all 3 of his Cam Talbot signings have been significantly great value. If Talbot is indeed traded for a 2nd round draft pick, it will be a total gain for the franchise. Talbot was initially signed out of the NCAA (University of Alabama) after being undrafted. It was for the NHL minimum wage. Before playing his 1st NHL game, before Martin Biron's suddent retirement in 2013... Talbot was re-signed for a 1-year extension at the same cap hit as his initial contract. And earlier this year, well before Lundqvist's strained neck blood vessel injury, Talbot was signed to another 1-year extension, this time $1.45 million. 

  Of course there's still the chance he is not traded, and kept for the 2015-16 NYR campaign. If not sought to be a starter elsewhere, while in NY Talbot has demonstrated to be perhaps the premier NHL backup goaltender in the league.

   In summer of 2009, the NY Rangers traded a 5th round pick to Pittsburgh Penguins for NCAA (University of Alaska) goalie 23-year-old Chad Johnson. Safe to say, if traded, Cam Talbot would fetch more than that.

   

Silver Lining to The Mess That Is The NY Rangers?

   Marc Staal missed his 2nd straight game after leaving the Devils-Rangers game last Saturday evening. It is being touted by the Rangers brass as a 'minor concussion,' yet it all but guarantees Staal out of the lineup at least a few weeks... if not more. And tonight, in NYR's 2nd consecutive 4-1 defeat on home ice, NYR captain Ryan Callahan left the game with a sprained knee. It is recently been reported it will be a six-to-eight week injury. 

   NY has played averagely-to-below-averagely, revealed in their 15-16-1 record. Once again, Broadway faces a rash of the injury bug, in the face of an already underachieving hockey club. It does not bode well for a team turnaround in performance, as NY has struggled mightily of late, so far taking little opportunity of their deluxe nine-game homestand. But of course, that's the simple bad news, the obvious writing on the wall. 

   Is their any good news?

   Potentially.

   Hear me out on this...

   1) Political pressure. If the NY Rangers are struggling while totally healthy, NYR General Manager Glen Sather has little options for explaining (to the fans, press, employees or employers) why a big trade, or multiple trades, need to happen now. But if a team that sucks while healthy has some key players injured, now and sporadically since October? Now all of a sudden Sather is expected to do something amending of the current roster. It simply won't look as bad to cash in NYR 1st Round Draft Picks or AHL prospects for talented mid-season acquisition. Sather had his options all summer long, and assembled a team that has not met its expectations. Injuries or management's incompetence (or, more likely, a combination of both), injuries like this can take the heat off of a GM's offseason plan falling on its face by December. But, then again, Jim Dolan's earlier vote of confidence assuring Sather his job was somehow invariably safe in NY. How sour does the season have to turn for Sather to actually lose his job?

   2) If... and granted this is a big if... If NYR were to make the 2014 playoffs... with Callahan/Staal/Nash having played significantly less games than their opposition come April... surely it would be an advantage in the dimensions of fatigue. Two players of very similar stature, roll, talent and value squaring off. One has played 80 NHL regular season games, the other has played 55. In a seven-game triple overtime, which player do you want? Lest we forget, Henrik Lundqvist has put up his best numbers in years he played his least amount of games (53 in 05-06, 62 in 11-12, & 43 in 12-13). The real trick is getting to the playoffs, which is the rub when we're discussing post-season advantages of your key players not playing in the regular-season. However, we have a pretty great feeling that Sather will do a lot to salvage this season for some sort of playoff birth. The Metropolitan Division is, of course, the worst division in the NHL. 

   What are the numbers regarding trade options?

   As of right now, with 13 healthy forwards and an injured Callahan, as well as 6 healthy defensemen and a concussed Staal, and Lundqvist/Talbot: NYR can afford to add $1.75 million in cap hit to the roster today. That is on pace to be a $5.51 million opening if the roster stays this way until the trade deadline, which is doubtful. If Callahan or Staal are placed on Long-Term Injury Reserve, additional cap credit can be added.

   So, here we are in Rangersland. Sather will have a lot of freedom to do what he wants with the majority of NYR's contracts expiring next July. With circumstances as they are now, Sather will also have a lot of freedom to make moves in the next few months should NY continue to flounder around mediocrity. Lundqvist was just signed to the big bucks until he turns 39 years old, meaning of course it is a huge commitment to compete for the Cup while ~12% of your salary cap is tied up in a guy who turns 33 next March. As injuries continue to daunt a roster seemingly incapable of consistent competition, even on home ice, it will be 'good news' for those interested in the team making attempts at trade & improvement. 

   We shall see how things unfold, or continue to fold.