How The $71.4 million NHL Salary Cap Affects the NYR OffSeason

  

   








   NHL General Managers, NHL players, their agents, and the entire hockey blogosphere have learned the 2015-16 salary cap will be $71.4 million. If you’re viewing this blog, then chances are you’re at least a tad bit curious as to the obvious question: How will this affect the New York Rangers?

   The first priority remains the same as our previous weeks of articles: the Rangers must reduce their payroll this summer in order to comply by October 1st. 

    Here’s a look at the NY Rangers cap payroll for the 2015-16 season:

• The contracts in purple indicate that player is a Restricted Free Agent this summer, and the figure in purple is the minimally realistic prediction as to what they could sign for on a 1-year deal.
• The contracts in grey indicate that player’s contract is on the books, thus NOT a free agent.
• The contracts in blue indicate the 2015-16 NHL minimum age as a theoretical cap hit for whatever depth players the Rangers sign this summer. In this instance, the extra skaters are all conservatively presumed to have minimum-wage ($575k/yr) deals.

   Here we see the team looks to be a few million short of being cap-compliant. And this graph represents best-case scenarios for the Restricted Free Agents re-signing at the realistically cheapest 1-year contracts.

   At best, the Rangers are a little less than $2 million over the salary cap this summer, in our extremely conservative estimations.

   So where to cut? Hmmm…

CAM TALBOT

• Exporting Talbot in a trade, and ultimately replacing him with a lesser salary, is the easiest (and as of late, trendiest) means to reduce overall payroll.Trading Talbot away, and ultimately replacing him with that of a, say, $645,000/year goalie… would be a $800,000 reduction on the team’s books.

DEREK STEPAN

• In a 1-year contract, we predict Stepan to sign for no less than $6 million. 
• A multi-year contract would likely range from $6 mil to $7 mil.
• The most similar comparable to ascertaining Stepan’s theoretical value this summer is that of Ryan O’Reilly in Colorado… O’Reilly signed a 2-year $12 million contract shortly before an arbitration hearing was scheduled.

   Our prediction for Stepan’s year-to-year rate is something like:

• 1 years: $6.000000 / year ($06,000,000)
• 2 years: $6.200000 / year ($12,400,000)
• 3 years: $6.333333 / year ($17,999,999)
• 4 years: $6.500000 / year ($26,000,000)
• 5 years: $6.700000 / year ($33,500,000)
• 6 years: $6.900000 / year ($41,400,000)
• 7 years: $7.142857 / year ($49,999,999)
• 8 years: $7.125000 / year ($57,000,000)

   Stepan is an extremely vital asset for Broadway, serving as their wonderfully productive 1st Line Center. Unless traded within the window, there’s two more seasons of Derek to play as a New York Ranger before entering Unrestricted Free Agency. 

  Sather could take the 1-year discount, delaying the probable payday contract to Stepan until next summer… although Stepan’s pricetag could easily (and likely) be higher during this time next summer. 

   Let’s hold off on figuring a course-of-action for signing Stepan until we can appreciate what assets on the team may be more expendable than the team’s #1 center. 

CARL HAGELIN

• With Restricted Free Agency, Hagelin may be headed to NHL salary arbitration next month, if he and his team cannot hash out an amicable agreement beforehand.
• Parallel to last summer’s arbitration decision for that of Vladimir Sobotka (in St. Louis)… we feel a 1-year $2.8 million contract is roughly what Hagelin could/should/would be awarded.

   Should the Rangers and Hagelin agree long-term? Our prediction for Hagelin’s year-to-year rate is something like:

• 1 years: $2,800,000 / year ($02,800,000)
• 2 years: $3,000,000 / year ($06,000,000)
• 3 years: $3,333,333 / year ($09,999,999)
• 4 years: $3,500,000 / year ($14,000,000)
• 5 years: $3,600,000 / year ($18,000,000)
• 6 years: $3,750,000 / year ($22,500,000)
• 7 years: $3,642,857 / year ($24,499,999)
• 8 years: $3,625,000 / year ($29,000,000)

STEPAN vs HAGELIN?

   This duo represent the the lone pair of NYR Restricted Free Agents to a) have the right of salary arbitration, b) make the most money of any of the other RFA’s, and c) be only two years removed from Unrestricted Free Agency.

WHICH DESERVES A LONG-TERM DEAL MORE?

   The answer, almost irrefutably, is Stepan. He is a #1 center, is a coveted asset to any NHL franchise. A cornerstone center, at the young age of 25, is expected to make $6 or $7 million on  a long-term contract.

   As for Hagelin? Two things to note when pondering his gravity of Broadway’s cap structure:

• A) Hagelin is a 3rd line winger, with the upside attribute of being a phenomenal penalty killer. 
• B) Perhaps Hagelin’s most valuable attribute to his contribution to an NHL team is his speed. Yet Hagelin, who turns 27 years old in August, will likely be losing pepper off his footwork fastball.

   In other words, what do you think is the easiest roster change to “correct or “replace” for cheaper money? A $6 million center who plays 19 minutes per game, or a $2.8 million winger who plays 15 minutes per game?

JESPER FAST (24), J.T. MILLER (23) & OSCAR LINDBERG (24)

• All three forwards are Restricted Free Agents without the right to salary arbitration
• We predict Miller’s 1-year extension rate is $50,000 more expensive than Fast’s, despite Miller’s minimum qualifying offer being $100,000 greater than that of Miller’s
• Lindberg, who had a wonderful season in the American Hockey League last season, is fully expected to make the jump to the NHL next year. His qualifying offer is few thousand less than his projected 1-year minimum cost of $725,000

   With all the trade rumors surround Cam Talbot, why don’t we hear too much about any of these assets being included in a packaged trade?

   Because with the trio reasonably projected to make less than $1 million/year on respective 1-year deals… it does not seem an aspect where Broadway can be in a position to “cut the fat.” In other words, what forwards could be returned in a trade which would replace the roles of Fast/Miller/Lindberg while accounting for lesser money? 

   It seems highly unlikely.

   So…

   Let’s assume Cam Talbot is traded somewhere for draft pick(s) and/or prospect(s). And let’s also assume that the Rangers replace his role as Backup Goalie with an Unrestricted Free Agent signing this summer, of whom signs for 1-yr $575,000 (the NHL minimum wage).

   How does this change things?

   So even if all four RFA’s are signed for the most realistically stingy 1-year contracts… and even if Talbot is traded and replaced with a goalie of minimal cost… we see the team remains $275,000 over the cap.

   Not to mention, having the 21st, 22nd & 23rd roster spots all at the NHL minimum wage is a stretch for this example as well. 

   So…?

   Talbot cannot be the only Ranger to be exported this offseason. 

   

   There must be at least one other NY Ranger to be exiled, and replaced with a cheaper substitute, for the team to render itself cap compliant.

   Before we finish, let’s just remind ourselves of which NY Rangers have No-Trade and/or No-move Clauses this summer, making them the peskiest players to attempt to move?

   So while there is a lot of salary cap meat-on-the-bone with this list of NY Rangers… it would seem especially cumbersome to orchestrate a trade involving any one of them. Particularly packaging someone in a Talbot trade to either Edmonton or Buffalo, where one of these players’ approval of such a trade would seem even less likely. 

   So…

   What about the Rangers under contract with the highest cap hits whom are without any NM or NT clauses?

   What can we conclude?

   As we’ve proposed multiple times on this blog, the seemingly most “replaceable” players to dump are Carl Hagelin and/or Kevin Klein.

   Both have theoretical salary caps just south of $3 million, while their respective roles are that of 3rd line wing & 3rd pair defense. 

   McDonagh’s cap hit of $4.7 million is a bargain, considering the Captain’s role on the team.

   Stepan, Kreider & Yandle are all being paid “fairly”, given their respective roles (and Power Play capability).

   Any trade involving Kreider, McDonagh, Stepan, and/or Yandle would be as big a summer surprise as it is (at the moment) highly unlikely.

   Thus, now we see why Kevin Klein & Carl Hagelin have been the most frequent throw-in Rangers skaters mumbled amidst the weeks of Talbot trade rumors. Neither player is a toxic asset (actually both have done very well as Rangers, and would not be traded due to poor performance or sour reputation). Yet when looking for a soul to shed some salary, Hagelin & Klein are the “likeliest” suitors.

   So we will examine two different scenarios:

SCENARIO A:

• Trade Cam Talbot & Kevin Klein for draft pick(s) and/or prospect(s)
• Sign Derek Stepan to a long-term deal worth $6.6 mil/yr [which we predict would be a four or five year deal]
• Sign Carl Hagelin to a 1-year, $2.8 mil deal
• Sign J.T. Miller to a 2-year, $1.2 mil/yr deal
• Sign Jesper Fast to a 2-year, $975k/yr deal
• Sign Oscar Lindberg to a 2-year, $800k/yr deal
• Sign a 7th D, such as Matt Hunwick, to a 2-year, $875k/yr deal
• Assume Brady Skjei will be NHL-ready for duties on the Broadway’s 3rd defensive pair
• Sign a backup goalie to a 1-year, $700k deal ($125k more than the league minimum)
• Sign a 13th “spare” forward to 1-year, $675k deal ($100k more than the league minimum)
• Sign a 14th “spare” forward to a 1-year, $650k deal ($75k more than the league minimum)

• Interestingly enough, we assume if Klein is moved, that the services of Matt Hunwick (hypothetically signed for a  2-year, $875k contract) and rookie Brady Skjei will be enough “in-house” promotion to replace Klein’s role. 
• To do this, the Rangers must accommodate a seven defensemen with only two Right-handed pointmen. If this is the case, why don’t we slide McDonagh to the right point? He played well at the 2014 Winter Olympics in the off-hand position of RD. 
• This also frees up enough cap space to sign RFA’s Fast, Lindberg, Miller & Stepan to multi-year “bridge” deals.
• We can also beef up the 2nd goalie, as well as 13th & 14th “spare” forwards respective cap hits, to a few notches above the league minimum.

   Scenario A brings us to a 23-man roster snugly beneath the ceiling with $50,000 in cap space.

   - Talbot is replaced by a free agent for approximately half of Talbot's 2015-16 salary

   - Klein is replaced by a combination of Skjei & Hunwick

   - Martin St. Louis is replaced by the promotion of Oscar Lindberg

   - James Sheppard & Chris Mueller are replaced by a $675k free agent & $650k free agent respectively

SCENARIO B:

• Trade Cam Talbot & Carl Hagelin for draft pick(s) and/or prospect(s)
• Sign Derek Stepan to a 1-year contract 
• Sign J.T. Miller to a 2-year, $1.25 mil/yr deal
• Sign Jesper Fast to a 2-year, $975k/yr deal
• Sign Oscar Lindberg to a 2-year, $800k/yr deal
• Sign a 7th defenseman to a 1-year, $800k deal
• Sign a backup goalie to a 1-year, $725k deal ($125k more than the league minimum)
• Sign a 13th “spare” forward to 1-year, $675k deal ($100k more than the league minimum)
• Sign a 14th “spare” forward to a 1-year, $600k deal ($25k more than the league minimum)

   - Talbot is replaced by a free agent for approximately half of Talbot's 2015-16 salary

   - Hagelin is theoretically replaced by Fast

   - Hayes switches to wing, while his 3rd center roster spot is replaced by a $1.5 million free agent

   - Martin St. Louis is replaced by the promotion of Oscar Lindberg

   - James Sheppard & Chris Mueller are replaced by a $675k free agent & $600k free agent respectively

   - Matt Hunwick is either brought back for, or replaced by, a $800k free agent defenseman

Scenario B brings us to a 23-man roster snugly beneath the ceiling with $25,000 in cap space.

*Important Note: While the sum of $1.5 million for pursuing a 3rd line winger or defenseman seems awfully underwhelming, the NY Rangers will have as much as $2,505,000 available in performance bonuses to dish out this summer while remaining below the bonus cushion. Should the Rangers wish to "gamble," and assume Kevin Hayes will not activate his maximum potential bonus amount of $2.85 million, the Rangers could theoretically dish out $3 or $4 million in bonuses this summer and still not break the cushion. Thus, a $1.5 million 3rd line forward could actually be compensated $2.5 - $4.5 million in cap-haven performance bonuses, attracting the highest quality of forwards willing to sign on for a 3rd line role.

Conclusion

   These two scenarios seem to be the likeliest ones for a vague picture of the Rangers' team come October. Neither involve trades which tinker with the nucleus of role players pivotal to the team's chances at a Stanley Cup. Simply put: Hagelin, Klein & Talbot will be missed, but not irreplaceably so. 

   There's no reason to think a trade involving Lundqvist, Nash, McDonagh, Staal or Girardi will take place this summer. If not for the unlikely possibility of any of these players waiving there NMC/NTC's, the simple fact that Scenarios A & B demonstrate there should be ZERO pressure at all for Glen Sather to make such a deal.

   Yes, the Rangers need to cut salary. Aptly put, the roster will require metaphorical off-season surgery. Yet while the deportation and replacement of Hagelin, Klein and/or Talbot represent minor surgeries like wisdom teeth removal or laser-eye... why in the world would Broadway go a few steps further and voluntarily engage in open-heart surgery by way of dealing Lundqvist, Nash, Stepan, McDonagh, Staal or Girardi?

   This is not a team looking to make huge adjustments after a largely disappointing 2014-15 season. The team won the President's Trophy, was a viable threat until the end, and was 20 minutes away from their 2nd consecutive Stanley Cup Final. Unlike teams like Colorado, Dallas or Toronto... this is not a team with political carte blanche to rewire all aspects of the roster.

 This is a team that should be considerably more apt to trim around the edges than rebuild its central configuration.

   It doesn't make much sense for the Rangers to move the big pieces... at least not quite yet.

NYR Off-Season Hypothetical: A, B, or C ?

Which 2015-16 NY Rangers "team" would you prefer? Team A, Team B, or Team C?

    Below there exists three parallel universes. All three begin as the New York Rangers of the present-day: less than a week away from the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, still basking in the aftertaste of May's Game 7 loss versus the Lightning... And yet, all three will simulate different possible off-season moves the Rangers could pursue this summer, each varying in choice, priority and motivation. 

   What do you think?

 *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *

Total Salary Cap

$71,475,000

1) Trade Cam Talbot, Kevin Klein & the #59 overall pick to the Edmonton Oilers for the #16 overall pick. 

   This trade is largely about reducing the Rangers salary cap total, and is quite logical considering Edmonton's current needs. The Oilers are seeking goaltending depth, and a right-handed defenseman like Klein, coming off a career year, is contracted for three more seasons at a modest $2.9 million per cap hit. The Rangers draft a youngster with the #16 overall pick, making a long-term investment amongst a franchise with a reputation (and recent trend) of doing the opposite.

2) Sign Derek Stepan to a 1-year, $6 million/year contract. 

   Stepan will once again become a restricted free agent with a salary arbitration option next July, though there's a good chance his price at a long-term contract will be pricier than that of signing one this summer. We predict at arbitration he'd make roughly $6 million for a 1-year performance. The Rangers and Stepan could sign this deal amicably, or it could be a matter of arbitration.

3) Sign Brad Richards to a 1-year, $1.5 million/year contract. While the base-pay cap hit would only be $1.5 million, the Rangers would load the contract with anywhere from $2 to $4 million in additional performance bonuses. 

   As we've mentioned before on this blog, teams pressed for cap space are likely to seek refuge in performance bonuses. This is a prime example. While wanting to import a 3rd-line-center to let Kevin Hayes develop as a winger, bringing in a reliable pivot (such as Richards) usually proves to be pricy. This signing would allow the Rangers to improve center depth while maintaining a lean bang-for-buck in doing so. 

4) Sign Carl Hagelin to a 1-year, $2.85 million/year contract. 

   Much like the Stepan deal, Hagelin is re-signed to a 1-year deal, kicking the can down the road as far as the pending decision / window to extend his services long-term. Hagelin will return as a restricted free agent with arbitration rights next July. This deal would be $450,000 richer than Hagelin's 1-year minimum qualifying offer. Again, we've predicted Hagelin's value at approximately 1-year $2.85M on this blog before.

5) Sign J.T. Miller to a 2-year, $1.25 million/year contract. 

6) Sign Jesper Fast to a 2-year, $950,000/year contract.

7) Sign Oscar Lindberg to a 1-year, $725,000/year contract.

   These three are all restricted free agents, without the recourse of salary arbitration, whom have practically no leverage against lowball offers from the Rangers. Miller, with a minimum qualifying offer of 1-year/$770,000... receives a two-year "bridge" deal. Fast, with a minimum qualifying offer of $851,000... also receives a two-year bridge deal. Lindberg, whom only has 1 NHL game played in his career, is coming off an impressive AHL season & postseason, has all the makings to crack the big roster in October.

8) Sign Matt Hunwick to a 1-year, $875,000/year contract.

   As Larry Brooks has reported, the Rangers have expressed interest in recouping Hunniwck's services as the team's fringe defenseman. If Klein is to be exiled, evaluating a Hunwick contract such as this also depends on one Brady Skjei. If Skjei is deemed "highly unlikely" of being NHL-ready next season, perhaps the roster spots of Hunwick + Skjei could be more properly allocated into a more bonafide and steady 3rd pair defensemen (cheaply available, unrestricted free agents such as Barret Jackman or Anton Volchenkov, perhaps?) In essence, Team A believes the role of 6th & 7th D on the team can be handled adequately by Hunwick & Skjei.

9) Sign an Unrestricted Free Agent goaltender, such as Thomas Greiss, to a 1-year, $650,000 contract.

   With Talbot's departure, a backup goalie is needed to replace his spot as team's second-stringer. Broadway's AHL goaltenders under contract: Cedrick Desjardins & Mac Skapski, are both highly unlikely to be viable candidates for promotion to NHL backup. Skapski will miss the beginning of next season recovering from hip surgery, while Desjardins missed the majority of last season with a torn ACL. Most will fully expect the Rangers to sign a cheap backup goaltender on the market if-and-when Talbot is traded away.

10) Sign an Unrestricted Free Agent forward, such as Dan Carcillo, to a 1-year, $600,000 contract.

   To round out the team, sign a "taxi squad" spare forward as your 23rd roster spot. We use Carcillo in this example, but it could easily be countless other journeyman forwards bumping around the bottom of the league. 

   Team A represents a mostly quiet off-season, where the team is content with its inherent strengths, and does not feel the need to pursue massively-orchestrated trades nor albatross-sized free agents on the open market. No, Team A's mentality is "strength through growth, growth through maturity." With a respectable run to the very end of the Conference Finals, in this off-season we feel maintaining most of last year's team is the best course of action. If this blogger could coin a phrase, it'd be "an exciting postseason makes for a boring off-season."

   Hardly removed from what is likely to happen in reality; Team A's offseason will pack the NY Rangers to the brim of the salary cap (predicted at $71.5 million), max out the bonus cushion on of Hayes & Richards, and offer Rangers fans all the reason in the world for another successful NYR season & (hopefully) deep playoff run. 

   Here's what the NY Rangers' long-term contract atmosphere would be after Team A's off-season moves:

   This would give Broadway plenty of maneuverability for next off-season. We would predict roughly $25 million in cap space next summer with a dozen contracts expiring. It would give the Rangers' front office a lot of choices to make in the Summer of 2016, but also a lot of room and time to do so. Plus, they got one more shot at a Stanley Cup before making some tough choices in a "break-up-the-band" kind of way. 

   However during the season, it could be tough times if there was a rash of injuries, as this roster stands a mere $25,000 under the ceiling. Negotiations on contract extensions with Kreider & Hayes' could begin this summer, but negotiations with Stepan, Hagelin, or Lindberg couldn't begin until January 1st, 2016.

   Team A's summer would be swapping Martin St. Louis, Kevin Klein, James Sheppard & Cam Talbot for Brad Richards, Brady Skjei, Dan Carcillo & Thomas Greiss. 

   

*     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     * 

Total Salary Cap

$70,400,000

1) Trade Cam Talbot to the Buffalo Sabres for the #31 overall pick. 

   Liquidate Talbot into draft pick(s) and/or prospect(s). We've previously written about 10 possible draft pick trades involving Talbot, so we'll go with this example for the sake of simplicity. 

2) Trade Derek Stepan to the Colorado Avalanche for Ryan O'Reilly. However, Colorado retains 50% of O'Reilly's contract. 

   We've seen comparisons here and there regarding Stepan's similarity to O'Reilly. When weighing the numbers, we've come to the conclusion that Stepan would likely make a small amount more than O'Reilly, all else equal. Stepan is two seasons from unrestricted free agency, while O'Reilly is only one. Thus, a straight-up swap of the two players with Colorado footing the bill for half of O'Reilly's seems like a fair idea for both sides. 

   This idea especially makes sense if the following is true:

A) The Avalanche are more interested in Stepan than O'Reilly in terms of a long-term asset

B) The Rangers are more interested in O'Reilly than Stepan in terms of winning a Cup in 2016

   Remember, both of these players have had contract holdouts with their respective teams. Swapping them could be a mutually beneficial idea to ponder. But mostly, this is a salary cap move. Stepan would go for at least $6 million, but has now been replaced with a very similar player making costing half as much. That frees up $3 million in cap room for basically no loss of quality, avoiding the ejection of trading away Klein or Hagelin.

3) Sign Carl Hagelin to a 2-year, $3.00 million/year contract. 

   Hagelin is only two years away from Unrestricted Free Agency, so a two-year bridge contract for about $3 million/year seems accurate. His 3rd line services are retained.

5) Sign J.T. Miller to a 2-year, $1.25 million/year contract. 

6) Sign Jesper Fast to a 2-year, $975,000/year contract.

7) Sign Oscar Lindberg to a 2-year, $875,000/year contract.

8) Sign Matt Hunwick to a 1-year, $875,000/year contract.

9) Sign an Unrestricted Free Agent goaltender, such as Jonas Gustavsson, to a 2-year, $900,000/year contract.

10) Sign an Unrestricted Free Agent forward, such as James Sheppard, to a 1-year, $800,000 contract.

11. Sign an Unrestricted Free Agent forward, such as Dan Carcillo, to a 1-year, $625,000 contract.

   Team B uses the art of retained salary to get below the 2015-16 salary cap without sacrificing hardly any quality. Losing Stepan and the certainty of a franchise 1st center for the future is not the greatest long-term change... but O'Reilly for $3 million spells a wonderful thing for the shortsighted goal of winning the 2016 Stanley Cup. Yes... O'Reilly, may very well be a 1-year rental. Yet defensively (especially if Skjei is NHL-calibre) it looks as though Team B has fortified defensive depth. This was a summer objective that this blog cited as a sought area of improvement in our Rangers off-season preview article.

   Additionally, this roster has a theoretical $1.1 million in cap space. This means the team has more flexibility in the face of injuries (as far as cap space for minor-league call-ups), and could have a few million in cap space come February to be a deadline shopper. The moves would also suggest that Team B not only has faith in Hayes to remain at 3rd center, but possibly grooming him for bigger minutes down the middle, when 2016-17 comes and perhaps neither Stepan nor O'Reilly are on the team.

   Team B's summer would essentially be NYR swapping Martin St. Louis, Derek Stepan, & Cam Talbot for Ryan O'Reilly, Oscar Lindberg & Jonas Gustavsson.

*     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     * 

Total Salary Cap

$71,461,667

1) Trade Cam Talbot, Carl Hagelin, Tanner Glass, the #59 overall pick, and a future 1st Round Pick (in '16 or '17) & the rights to Brandon Halverson to the Edmonton Oilers for Jordan Eberle. 

   Here we forgo the rumors of Ryan Nugent-Hpokins and Nail Yakupov, as Team C goes after the big fish in that of Eberle, a wonderful young scorer who’s been tethered to the Oilers the entire five years of his career. We assert the Oilers acquire Talbot, which has been the chatter on the grape vine for countless weeks, in predication that he will be the team’s next great cornerstone goalie. 

   Of course Talbot only has one year remaining on his contract, thus one year removed from being an Unrestricted Free Agent. This tarnishes his trade value for New York. To land a fish like Eberle, Broadway sweetens the pot, even with Talbot as a given.

   So the Rangers include Carl Hagelin & Tanner Glass (both are two years removed from UFA).

   Hagelin replaces Eberle as a winger roster spot, although definitely a massive downgrade for Edmonton. Glass is largely a throw-in pick. A little advantage to Glass’s remaining contract is he’s actually paid LESS than his cap hit. Small-market teams (like Edmonton) enjoy players with less salary than salary cap, as it helps a franchise make it to the salary cap floor without having to actually pay the amount.

   However Talbot, Hagelin & Glass bundled together still aren’t close enough to getting Eberle, who has four years remaining in his contract at a $6 million/year cap hit. That means Eberle could have anywhere from 90 to 150 goals scored in that remainder! Also Eberle, who recently turned 25 years of age, is in his absolute prime in terms of production. Hagelin (27) & Glass (31) are both beginning their [probable] downslopes.

   So…

   If the Rangers weren’t “all-in” last season, they certainly will be this season. Because to make this trade work, the Rangers would have to top off at least two high-quality draft picks in the deal. Here we assert its at least a 1st Round pick in 2016 or 2017 (whichever one the Arizona Coyotes don’t acquire based on whether or not the Rangers make the playoffs next season, pertinent to the Duclair/Yandle trade). And, on top of that, the #59 overall pick in next week's draft.

It’s an extreme price to pay, but if we look at Rangers trades and the “going rate” of acquiring a young, established winger like Eberle? Who has four years left on a reasonably-paid contract?

Some recent examples include...

RYAN CLOWE (UFA in 0.5 seasons)

in exchange for

2nd Round 2013 Draft Pick

3rd Round 2013 Draft Pick

5th Round 2014 Draft Pick

and

MARTIN ST. LOUIS (UFA in 1.5 seasons)

2nd Round 2015 Draft Pick

for

RYAN CALLAHAN (UFA in 0.5 seasons)

1st Round 2015 Draft Pick

2nd Round 2014 Draft Pick

7th Round 2015 Draft Pick

   Eberle would undoubtedly be a bigger catch than either of these two. Thus, even coupled with the assets of Talbot, Hagelin & Glass… would be the likely package to insinuate for this type of deal. 

   Throw in Rangers’ goaltending prospect Brandon Halverson to mitigate that condition. Halverson, 19, is still a long way off from potential pro-time in net. Yet he would serve as an “insurance” policy of sorts of the Oilers should Talbot sign elsewhere in the Summer of 2016, or flat-out be unsuccessful entertaining a full-time starting gig in general.

   The Rangers would still have goalie prospect Igor Shesterkin, 19, currently in Russia, in the pipeline, in addition to Mac Skapski, 21, coming off his freshman season in the AHL.

   The Oilers acquiring Cam Talbot (certainly guaranteed to play in 2015-16, with potential for long-term contract) as well as Halverson, would serve as a huge upgrade in the franchise’s goaltending depth. That, Hagelin & Glass… plus a 1st & 2nd Rounder… might be enough to sway Edmonton into trading Eberle.

2) Trade Rick Nash to the St. Louis Blues for T.J. Oshie & Jordan Binnington. The Blues retain $1 million/year of Oshie's salary.

   In this scenario, Nash is considered to be the superior asset, as Oshie is a presumed ‘downgrade” from New York's standpoint. Ultimately Nash (with three years remaining on a $7.8 million/year cap hit) is an upgrade for Oshie (who has two years remaining on a $4.175 million/year cap hit). The Blues’ “cost of upgrade?” Goaltending prospect Jordan Bennington & paying the tab for roughly one-fourth of Oshie's remaining money.

   But Nash is two years older than Oshie, and is nearly 190% the price! 

   True, but Nash being contracted an extra year, even tip-toeing around his 35th birthday, inevitably guarantees more goals than Oshie. Even if Nash has a terrible stint in St. Louis, he’s extremely likely to notch 90 goals over the 246 potential regular-season games before his contract expires. 

   As for Oshie?

   Oshie’s only broken the 20-goal barrier once in his career! (21 goals in 2013-14). 

    

   Even if Nash’s cost, as well as risk-of-decline, is greater than this of Oshies; swapping Nash for a partially-retained Oshie saves the Rangers nearly $5 million in cap space. Plus the addition of Binnington, a prospect coming off a terrific season in the American Hockey League, is on the final year of his entry-level contract at a minuscule $636,337 cap hit. 

   The Blues’ will certainly re-sign Jake Allen, and have Brian Elliot locked up at a very reasonable $2.5 million/year cap hit for the next two seasons. Binnington’s chances at breaking into the majors are slim in St. Louis… however Broadway will be seeking a cheap backup goalie after Talbot’s inevitable ejection.

   Would St. Louis be willing to beef their payroll so suddenly? They’re not exactly an NHL team known to spend much comparative to the league... that, plus the very likely multi-year contract for forward phenom Vladimir Tarasenko... would suggest St. Louis willing to spend a lot of money this winter.

   The Blues find themselves somewhere along the lines of where the NY Rangers did in Lundqvist’s first 5 or 6 years in New York; they seem to have no problem making the postseason, but simply cannot muster the roster to make a deep playoff run. Of all teams in the league this summer, the Blues may very well be amongst the feistiest to make a splash in terms of significant upgrades immediately.

   Doesn’t Rick Nash have a No-Trade Clause?

   He does; but on July 1st, it will become a limited no-trade clause, in which Nash will submit a list of 5-15 teams he will not accept a trade to. While destinations (and frankly some foolhardy Nash trade rumors) like Arizona, Buffalo, Edmonton or Florida would probably be the first cities penciled-in on Nash’s list… The Blues, a competitive team, could quite possibly be a team fair game for the Rangers to deal Nash. 

   If this is the case, the Rangers could just ask Nash if he’d accept the trade in June, if their prerogative is to move hime somewhere somehow anyways. This idea isn’t exactly “probable”, but all things considered it isn’t impossible. In fact a deal along these lines would make a lot of sense for both teams.

   While I personally don't think Nash is going anywhere this summer... of all places to be traded, St. Louis certainly seems like one of (if not the most) plausible destination.

   

3) Sign Derek Stepan to a 5-year, $6.75 million/year contract.

   With Nash's hefty $7.8 million/year salary cap swapped for Oshie's [partially retained] $3.175 million/year cap hit... It frees up room do what Team A & Team B couldn't; lock up Stepan to a long-term deal before his price escalates any further the next 24 months. This would keep Stepan on Broadway through the remainder of his 20's.

4) Sign J.T. Miller to a 2-year, $1,200,000/year contract.

5) Sign Jesper Fast to a 2-year, $975,000/year contract.

6) Sign Oscar Lindberg to a 1-year, $750,000/year contract.

7) Sign Matt Hunwick to a 1-year, $875,000/year contract.

8) Sign an Unrestricted Free Agent forward, such as David Moss, to a 1-year, $875,000 contract.

9) Sign an Unrestricted Free Agent forward, such as James Sheppard, to a 1-year, $800,000 contract.

10) Sign an Unrestricted Free Agent forward, such as Dan Carcillo, to a 1-year, $625,000 contract.

   Team C makes a cannonball's splash in the off-season trade market, making a couple of big-named exchanges in hopes of designing a roster capable of a championship in June 2016. While the theoretical exchange of Nash, Hagelin & Talbot for Oshie [$1M retained], Eberle & Binnington is a net salary savings for New York next season... it ultimately gives them less to work with in the long-term mindset of re-signing Kreider or Hayes. Coupled with the massive pick & prospect loss to acquire Eberle, New York will really be counting on talented-but-cheap contracts to emerge in the next few seasons. If Skjei can be counted on to be a regular roster spot by the 2016-17 season, New York will count on his net savings as replacement for one of Yandle or Boyle after their contracts expire.

   Unlike Team B and precisely like Team A... Team C has packed this roster to the brim, totaling over $71.46 million in 23 contracts. Don't expect this team to have the cap space to be shoppers at the 2016 deadline. And why would they? These contracts and actions indicate serious committal to the landscape of the roster for many years, and a struggle or rejection of Rangers success would be as problematic as it would be catastrophic.

*     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     *     * 

So which team do you prefer? A, B, or C? 

Let us know! Tweet us at @HockeyStatMiner

Post-Script:
   I did not include a buyout nor trade of defenseman Dan Boyle. While his cap may be very heavy for his production, thus tempting to be moved... Boyle's no-trade-clause and 35-years-or-older immunity to being buried in the minors for cap relief make it very difficult to excavate from Broadway's books. Like it or not, it's all but certain Boyle will invariably remain a Ranger for next season. Otherwise he'd be a debatable asset of which to hypothesize trades.

NY Rangers Off-Season Preview: Needs & Values

   This article is cut up into two halves: Needs & Values.

   The “Needs” section will discuss what roster needs Broadway will have this summer, and for next season, and how to digest these objectives into brainstormed solutions. In other words, ‘needs’ are a synonym for ‘how to correct roster deficiencies.’

   The “Values” section will take our conclusions in the “Needs” prologue and assign a measurement of ‘value’ to each asset on the roster. How valuable is Martin St. Louis or Matt Hunwick to the 2015-16 roster? We’ll elaborate on each individual as best we can.

   Needs

   The 2014-15 New York Rangers were great, but not great enough. In the hours after elimination from the Eastern Conference Finals, countless fans have taken to social media to give their two cents on “blaming” or “assigning fault” to various aspects of the team. 

   Why didn’t this team win the Cup?

   While there’s legitimacy in taking Ryan McDonagh’s broken foot, Marc Staal’s broken ankle, & Mat Zuccarello’s concussion all into account… That reasoning (caught forever between "reasons" and "excuses") is always rebuked with something along the lines of “every team has injuries. It’s no excuse.”

   Yes and no.

   Correct, most NHL teams have pieces that are banged up and battered, somewhat nullifying the advantages or disadvantages of skaters playing through pain. The thing is this: ultimately, some teams will be more injured than others, in varying degrees of severity-of-injury, as well as degree-of-skill overall afflicted with ware-and-tare.

   I think the clearer, more important argument to have is about depth. Roster depth. As in “how many players outside of your Top-20 roster spots can you reliably inject into vital postseason games without the risk outweighing the reward?” Because while comparing hidden, discreet, nearly immeasurable baskets of comparative team injuries is virtually impossible… examining a franchises’s depth, which is the key to battling through injuries in the first place, is much more practical place to examine.

   So...

   Why didn’t this team win the Cup? Outside the small consideration of injuries (being worse than Tampa’s?) and sheer variance (luck)… The NY Rangers’ lack of roster depth ultimately prevented them from overcoming Tampa’s tenacious adversity. If you don't believe it, just look at Game 7: New York burned a roster spot on the 4th line so Hunwick could only play 4:17 in the 1st period while McDonagh received a cortisone shot? Only then to have a healthy, rested Hunwick not play another shift upon McDonagh's return, rendering Game 7 basically a 17-skater Broadway lineup?

   That doesn't sound like much faith in the depth of your defenseman. Either that, or a big error on the part of the caching staff... But since I'm the first to assume Alain Vigneault knows what he's doing, I'll give  him the benefit of the doubt and place the blame on (lack of) roster depth.

   Comparing Broadway’s Top-20 roster (12 forwards, 6 defensemen, 2 goalies) to the rest of the league, it was superb. Tit-for-tat, the cream of the roster was exquisite, and very much deserving of their regular season success. 

   But what about the Top-22? In this case, that’s comparing Matt Hunwick and James Sheppard as the “extra skaters” compared to the rest of the league’s standby fill-ins. The Rangers’ Top-22 still probably fared favorably in contrast to the rest of the league (although probably even less so against Anaheim, Chicago or Tampa).

   From the 23rd roster spot onwards? Not so much.

   It’s difficult to sit broken-boned McDonagh and Staal because they comprise so much of New York’s effective defensive core. But who would you rather have, those two performing far less than 100%… or a 3rd pair of Mike Kostka & Matt Hunwick at 100%? Yeah… the Rangers were a defensive injury away from dressing Mike Kostka (or Conor Allen, maybe).

   Remember in the 2013 NHL Playoffs, where the injuries to Marc Staal & Anton Stralman forced John Tortorella to play Michael Del Zotto & Roman Hamrlik? As if the 5-game-defeat to Boston was at all the coach’s fault… it was the General Manager (Glen Sather), as putting a lot of eggs in not a lot of baskets can prove fatal should a few of the Top-6 defensemen baskets incur a concussion, sprain or broken bone.

   In fact, the Boston Bruins of that postseason, who went on to lose the Stanley Cup in 6 games to Chicago, actually used 9 different defensemen during the 22-game run! NINE. DEFENSEMEN. While they failed to capture it all, the team demonstrated the amazing ability to not be set aside by injuries, and having competent depth in the 23rd, 24th, 25th & 26th roster spots, should the rainy days come.

   They did, and Boston nearly weathered the storm. 

   The Rangers, this spring? Decidedly less the ability to seek refuge in their 8th or 9th defensemen in the franchise arsenal (I thought Matt Hunwick was a competent 7th D). The Blueshirts needed short & sweet series, playing as little needed time and encountering as few injuries as possible, to make a run of it. Unfortunately, Washington and Tampa provided an exhausting series, and ultimately ate away at the team’s thinner stamina.

   So… I think we can certainly agree the big “need” is improving depth. Molding the roster into something less top-20 concentrated, into something more designed to EXPECT a few injuries, and be able to cope accordingly. Surely that’s at least a fair assessment, eh?

   The other side of the coin is: the team overall proved to be an honest contender, even if the 2015 postseason was indeed a futile run of it. So, while improving depth is indeed a logical diagnosis… keeping the team somewhat intact, wherever possible, would seem to be for the most part an imperative maxim to keep in mind. 

   No, there will be no Canyon of Heroes parade in the Big Apple this summer. But it wasn’t exactly the Toronto Maple Leafs or Dallas Stars, either. The team met expectations up until the last week of May. There’s more positivity in that, despite the emotional negativity of Game 7 heartbreak the past 72 hours.

   To conclude: an increase in depth is perhaps the chief need for the organization, yet there should be a rejection of any “pressure” to blow up the roster and make sweeping changes, unless absolutely needed or genuinely fitting. Let’s try to walk that subjective line, shall we?

   Values:

   Once again, here’s a look at next year’s Top-20 roster. Let’s sift through the pieces, shall we?

   Derek Stepan: 

   Stepan is set to become a restricted free agent with arbitration rights. His qualifying offer is $3.85 million, but it will be easily tendered by NYR, and easily rejected by Stepan. The fact is Stepan is likely due a substantial payraise, one way or the other, as providing to be the #1 center on the team. In fact, Stepan was the only Rangers forward to play more than 18 minutes per game (18:11) in the regular season, and the only forward to play over 19 minutes per game (19:31) in the playoffs.

   He ranked 2nd among forwards in total PP time on ice, 2nd among forwards in ES time on ice, and 3rd among forwards in total PK time during the postseason. Like it or not, Stepan is an intricate ingredient in the Rangers rosters, and any idea of trading him in a deal must configure on those minutes being replaced… which is easier said than done, as quality centers playing quality minutes in this league usually demands a ripe premium.

   That, and coupled with Stepan’s summer-long contract holdout from July to October of 2013, suggest the man will get his money, one way or the other. The only question? How much, and for how long.

   In January, HockeyRodent compared Stepan to that of Ryan O’Reily last summer, in terms of similarity in both performance, position and contractual point in careers. Below I’ve updated the numbers of that comparison, and it remains a valid guide to help us determine what Stepan’s new salary ought to be.

AT TIME OF CONTRACT:

RYAN O’ REILY: 

Career: 191 points (73 goals, 118 assists), 345 games, ~18:07/game

Career Avgs/Game: (0.22 goals, 0.34 assists, 0.55 points)

Previous 2 seasons: 84 points (34 goals, 50 assists) 109 games, ~19:28/game

Prev 2 seasons avg/game: (0.31 goals, 0.46 assists, 0.77 points)

Age: 23.5

CURRENT:

DEREK STEPAN:

Career: 252 points (89 goals, 163 assists), 362 games, ~18:18/game

Career Avgs/game: (.25 goals, .45 assists, .70 points)

Previous 2 seasons: 112 points (33 goals, 79 assists), 150 games, ~18:05/game

Prev 2 seasons avg/game: .22 goals, .53 assists, .75 points)

Age: 25

   If O’Reilly is any indicator (which, in all likelihood, is an excellent comparable for Stepan’s summer negotiations)… He received a 2-year $6 million/year deal from Colorado, days prior to their salary arbitration hearing (which was filed by the team, not player). Granted that O’Reilly is roughly a year-and-a-half younger than Stepan… but still, this is the realistic figure Glen Sather will be dealing with.

   Stepan could realistically refuse any offer he doesn’t like, go to arbitration, likely get a 1-year ~$6 million arbitration judgement, and set his sights on becoming an Unrestricted Free Agent in Summer 2017. It doesn’t take an economist to realize Stepan has the leverage, and while lowballing is not an option, it will very likely be “cheaper” to sign Derek to a long-term deal this summer rather than next summer, with as much as 29 other teams bidding for the productive center.

   Of all the aspects of long-term considerations from which to pinch pennies on next year’s payroll, Stepan is likely that last place to do so. I think we can assuredly predict Stepan receives a cap hit of $6 to $7 million per year, with the former being 1-or-2-year-deals, and the latter representing 6-7-or-8-year-deals. 

   If that still seems like an unfairly high prediction-of-pay for Stepan, just remember last summer. The 31-year-old Jason Spezza received a 4-year $7.5 million/year contract from Dallas. The 28-year-old Paul Stastny received a 4-year $7 million/year contract from St. Louis. So… what do you think a 27-year-old Derek Stepan would fetch in 26 months, with the salary cap possibly in the mid $70-millions range? 

   A lot. 

   And it’s foolish to think Stepan, his agent, & Glen Sather aren’t aware of the market’s atmosphere through any of this. Our guess at Stepan’s 2015-16 cap hit will be something like $6.25 million/year, assuming some sort of multi-year-deal is signed this summer.

   Having the dynamic-duo of Derek Stepan & Derrick Brassard around for their late 20’s at a total annual cost of $11-$12 million per year is not a bad going rate in the current NHL. And of course, we assume we like that 1-2 punch, as they have notched 3 respectable runs in the postseason since they began playing together in February 2013.

   Which brings us to Brassard and his line:

   Mats Zuccarello, Derrick Brassard, & Rick Nash:

   All 3 players excelled on their line, with Brassard & Zuccarello enjoying success on the same line for the 2nd consecutive campaign (it was Benoit Pouliot in lieu of Nash in ’13-’14). All 3 players are under contract, with varying No-Move/No-Trade clauses, for the next 3-4 seasons. 

   There’s no reason to think any of the 3 forwards will be moved, nor should it be thought they must be moved, going forward for New York. In sum, they will cost a total of $17.3 million, which is certainly not a “bad” rate for a top offensive line, realistically projected to score 70-80 goals next regular season.

   Indeed, we can only wonder the true effect of Zuccarello’s absence in the 2nd & 3rd round of the postseason as far as Rangers chances at success. The line proved to be effective, time and time again, and will most likely be kept together for next October, barring some crazily unlikely trade.

   Jesper Fast & J.T. Miller:

   Both of these players had strange, versatile journeys in the 2014-15 season & postseason, varying from AHL minor leaguer, to 4th line specialist, to Derek Stepan’s top-linemate. Even though both players had NHL experience prior to this year, it was their first taste of NHL regularity. We can reasonably assume both can be expected as roster regulars for next season, both coming off their respective entry-level contracts this summer.

   Neither player has the right to salary arbitration, which means barring a grandiose offer sheet, both forwards will be without leverage against Broadway lowballing. Glen Sather, historically shrewd and stingy with restricted free agents whom are without arbitration or recourse, should probably pursue that tactic, and save as much cap space on the duo as possible.

   J.T. Miller’s qualifying offer is 1-year $777,000. Given his draft pedigree (15th overall in 2011), Sather would probably reluctantly succumb to a “higher” contract offer on Miller, than of Fast, who was taken 157th overall. 

   A 1-year deal of $800,000 - $900,000 is perhaps optimistic on Miller’s part (just ask John Moore last summer, whom received not a dollar more than his qualifying offer), but not impossible. If Miller looks to make at least $1 million annually, a 2-year “bridge” deal of $1-1.5 million seems a lot more realistic.

   We’ll guesstimate that Miller and the Rangers end up agreeing to a 2-year, $1.1 million deal in July or August.

   As for Quickie? … ehrm… I mean, Fast?

   His qualifying offer is for more than that of Miller, which is 1-year $851,000. It would not surprise me at all if Fast signs a 1-year deal for his exact qualifying offer, even though I doubt he nor his agent would be thrilled. And much like Miller, a 2-year “bridge” contract for a little more, say $900,000-$1 million per year, could just as easily make sense for both parties.

   

   So… we’ll make the assumption both are signed to 2-year deals, stiff-armedly lowball deals, at roughly $2 million per year totaled between the two.

   As far as the depth chart? Coach Alain Vigneault would have the lineup flexibility of putting either skater on any of the 4 lines. Miller has shown a greater upside and potential for offensive production, while Fast has already locked up his reliability as an excellent defensive forward, whom was particularly successful on NYR penalty kills.

   Carl Hagelin:

   The only remaining Restricted Free Agent we have not talked about yet. Hagelin has the right of salary arbitration, and like Stepan, only two summers away from Unrestricted Free Agency. His qualifying offer is $2.4 million.

   What’s his value?

   If Hagelin goes to arbitration, the most recent (and very logical) comparable to examine is that of Vladimir Sobotka, and his 1-year arbitration result which found he was “worth” $2.725 million. How similar is Sobotka last summer to Hagelin THIS summer? Let’s take a look…

AT TIME OF ARBITRATION:

SOBOTKA (Age 27)

STL Career: 247 games, 101 points (29-72-101)… 16:05/gp

STL Career Avg/Gp: .12 G/GP, .29 A/GP, .41 P/GP… 

Prev 2 Seasons: 109 games, 52 points (17-35-52)

Prev 2 Seasons Avg/Gp: .16 G, .32 A, .48 P … ~16:10/gp

CURRENT:

HAGELIN (Age 27)

NHL Career: 266 games, 130 points (58-72-130)… 15:38/gp

NHL Career Avg/Gp: .22 G, .27 A, .49 P

Prev 2 Seasons: 154 games, (34-34-68)… ~15:20/gp

Prev 2 Seasons Avg: .22 g-.22a - .44 p

   In addition to the nearly identical age (Sobotka was 1 month younger than Hagelin is now when he went to arbitration), nearly identical stats, and nearly identical role on respective teams… It seems to be a very fitting comparable for Hagelin’s camp to gauge his value. Perhaps this very article will come up in the arbitration hearing?

   ... A lonely, disheartened blogger can dream, can't he??...

   All-in-all, Sobotka was awarded roughly 4% of the incoming 2014-14 salary cap ($69 million). Should Hagelin’s 1-year arbitration award mirror a 4% figure, then we can projected Hagelin’s value at about 1-year $2.85 million if the salary cap is $71.5 million.

   Is Carlos worth $2.85 million to speed the flank on Broadway’s 3rd line? Perhaps, or perhaps not. It certainly wouldn’t be an “unfair” sum for either player nor team, yet if the Rangers are destined to have to cut salary by October, this is one of the likeliest candidates to be traded away.

   It’s probably 50-50 on Hagelin returning next year or ending up with another NHL club. The only reason he wouldn’t return would be salary cap reasoning, as he’s proven to be a fine 3rd line speedster, particularly pivotal on a team which has won so many games with more speed than sizzle. 

   But most importantly: if you dump Hagelin, you need to replace his top-tier penalty killing minutes and abilities.

   Chris Kreider, Kevin Hayes, Tanner Glass & Dominic Moore:

   All four of those skaters are under contract for the 2015-16 season, all of which have relatively minor salary cap hits. There’s no reason to think any of them will depart the team this summer. Even in the art of cutting salary to stay below the cap, this quartet totals a very modest collective cap hit of only $6,325,000. That’s not bad for one-third of the Top-20’s stock of forwards.

   Actually… it wouldn’t be the craziest thing if Glass was traded, and a minimum-wage 4th liner was signed off the market to replace his spot. It could save the Rangers up to $875,000 in cap relief. But like I say, it’s unlikely any of these forwards are exiled for salary cap reasons, unless a very interesting trade in orchestrated in the coming months.

   Cam Talbot:

   Unfortunately for Cam fans, it seems he is the prime candidate for being traded this summer. If there’s a place to start cutting salary, it’s the backup goalie making $1.45 million next season. That, coupled with Talbot’s brilliant play the past few seasons, should make him very attractive to NHL teams fielding starting goalie auditions. 

   If Broadway trades Talbot, and then signs a veteran backup goalie to a 1-year $575,000 contract (perhaps with a few hundred thousand more in performance bonuses)… That’s a cap hit saving of $875,000. It’s also the “easiest” way to cut salary, since ~ barring another long-term injury to Lundqvist~ it will only influence 20-25 games in the regular season… and (hopefully) none in the 2016 playoffs.

   The biggest NHL shoppers expected to utilize this summer’s goalie market are likely Buffalo, Calgary, Edmonton, Minnesota & San Jose. 

   I think it can be argued successfully that Talbot’s inherent value for the 2015-16 Rangers is not what he can do as the backup goalie, but what assets can he help return for the team in aspects other than goaltending. I would even go as far to say Talbot is very unlikely going to remain a Ranger over the next 4 months.

   Dan Boyle, Dan Girardi, Ryan McDonagh & Marc Staal:

   These four defensemen are unlikely to be traded or bought out by New York this summer, and are all-but-guaranteed to remain on the roster for next season’s crusade. All for have No-Trade and/or No-Movement clauses in their respective contracts, and have been irrevocable investments on the blueline for New York. Unless somehow one of these men willingly waives his contract clauses in some unforeseen trade, which is highly improbable; all the fans calling for their roster removal has no basis for actually being considered possible.

   Keith Yandle:

   A mixed review of offensive contribution and defensive dullness, Yandle’s pricey acquisition proved to be ultimately unfruitful in the 2015 attempt at Stanley. But, he is on contract for one more year before hitting the Unrestricted Free Agent market, and continues to be 50% of his actual cap hit, with Don Maloney and the Arizona Coyotes footing the other 50% of the bill.

   Trading Yandle? Possible, but his $2.625 million cap hit is extremely friendly. What 2nd or 3rd pair defensemen could he be replaced with for below cost? While it is “less impossible” for Yandle to be moved than any of Boyle/Girardi/McDonagh/Staal… I still think any of those 5 defensemen getting traded is a far cry from reality.

   Which brings us to the 6th defensemen…

   Kevin Klein:

   Klein, a retrospectively absolute steal from the Nashville Predators in the straight-up exchange for Michael Del Zotto, has enjoyed 2 deep playoff runs in the 2 seasons he’s been Broadway bound. In fact this season the 30-year-old defenseman put up career-high stats in goals (9), assists (17) and points (26). 

   So why do I think it’s very likely he’s traded?

   For a team pressed up against the salary cap, like the Rangers will be this summer, a 3rd pair defenseman making $2.9 million/year is an easy place to cut. The fact that he enjoyed a career year (despite missing 17 games with a broken arm) only makes his trade value that much more enticing.

   Like Talbot, his expandability in terms of salary vs “minor” playing time, coupled with his perky trade value after a successful season… spells out the perfect storm to be traded as the Blueshirts scramble to get under $72 million by October 1st.

   Klein does not have any no-trade or no-movement clauses, meaning he is powerless to stop any trade he might be packaged within. And certain teams hungry for fair-value reliable-defensemen would certainly be willing to talk trade with Sather. 

   The fact that he has 3 more years under his contract makes his trade value all the more genuine. It strikes me as “highly likely” both Talbot and Klein are banished from Broadway to reduce the overall budget. I am NOT suggesting they be traded because of “poor performance” or “dislikability.” Quite the opposite, actually, which is what makes them all the more tradable.

   Yes, Sather COULD trade Stepan or Hagelin to dump salary… but both of those players only has 1 season to play before becoming an Unrestricted Free Agent. Even if a team fully intends to acquire one of the two, and sign them to a long-term deal… all the player has to do is go to arbitration, reject all offers, and find himself in the 2016 July marketplace.

   Klein’s got 3 years. That means even though Stepan and Hagelin are probably more “valuable” pieces to a team… Klein’s guaranteed service at a guaranteed price makes him the most convenient and effective trade asset. Particularly teams where quality defensemen are at a low.

   And finally, the rest of the best…

   Oscar Lindberg: 

   Having finished his 2nd professional season in North America, including a “breakout” season and playoff run with the Hartford Wolf Pack the past 9 months… Lindberg’s candidacy for a 2015-16 roster spot remains a very possible one. The Swedish centerman played his first and only NHL game earlier this season.

   He will be a Restricted Free Agent without arbitration rights, so it’s a safe bet the 23-year-old will be re-signed for something around his $709,000 qualifying offer.

   Carl Klingberg:

   The minor-league winger acquired from Winnipeg in the Lee Stempniak deadline deal… Klingberg fit in nicely, playing with Lindberg’s line successfully. He notched 11 points in his only 13 AHL games with Hartford, and delivered 7 points in 13 postseason games before the Wolf Pack was swept in their Conference Finals.

   He will be a Restricted Free Agent without arbitration rights, and like Lindberg, will likely be re-signed for something very near his qualifying offer ($683,000), and given every opportunity to make a roster spot in the NHL come September’s training camp. 

   Matt Hunwick, Conor Allen, Dylan McIlrath, Mike Kostka:

   All four defensemen will have expiring contracts in July. Hunwick managed to separate himself from the other 3 in terms of a bonafide “7th” defensemen throughout the season… yet none of these players were given much of a chance unless a rash of injuries made it so. I don’t believe these will be Rangers blue liners in the coming years (although Hunwick re-signing a low contact to return as the 7th D isn’t exactly “unlikely”, either).

   Defenseman Prospects - Future Value:

Brady Skjei

   As stated earlier in the article, the Rangers were depleted of defensemen ready to step in and relieve others’ injuries. I’d focus more attention on the crop of younger blueliners New York has brewing in the farm systems.

   Specifically:

   

   And as stated in previous articles:

• If we reasonably assume Hayes, Kreider & Stepan get long-term, higher cap-hit extensions between this July and the next one….
• And we also see that Boyle & Yandle will have expiring contracts, with less money to spend on replacements following the 2015-16 season…
• Looking over our estimated "5-year-plan” (see chart below), look how little cap room is left for the 3rd pair of defense by October 2016? 

Click image for recent article which configured this 5-year plan for NYR payroll

   Is it not a fair conclusion to figure that the need to acquire bluechip bullion prospects over the next 12 months is an extremely logical one? Once Boyle and Yandle are gone, the 3rd pair will need cheap fill-ins. That means scourging the market for more “Matt Hunwicks”, “Steve Emingers” & “Matt Gilroys.” Or… perhaps like the case of Girardi, McDonagh & Staal… have a young, cheaply-contracted prospect organically transition into the big leagues on the 3rd pair.

   So, to answer, who or what would we trade Klein & Talbot for?

   Klein+Talbot+McIlrath for San Jose’s #9 overall pick?

   Klein+Talbot+McIlrath for Calgary’s #15 overall pick?

   Klein+Talbot+McIlrath for Edmonton’s #16 overall pick?

   A deal like this, is it so far-fetched? It could be a great way to add another quality defenseman prospect to our farm system, and hope the pick could be NHL-ready in 16 - 18 months?

   Or, another means could be raiding the free agent out-of-college market, as the Rangers have aggressively done in recent years without a 1st round draft pick. Girardi, Hayes & Talbot all broke onto the Rangers with this method (as well as AHL’ers Conor Allen, Mat Bodie, & Ryan Haggerty).

   Mike Reilly, a left-handed defenseman out of University of Minnesota, is coming off his 3rd season in the NCAA. The 22-year-old scored 6 goals & 36 assists in 39 games. While drafted by Columbus in 2011 (4th round), if he does not sign a deal with them by August 15, he will be on the completely open market, in the same fashion Kevin Hayes was.

   I count two dozen NCAA skaters drafted in 2011, still without a contract, who could also be totally on the open market this summer. It seems all but certain that the Rangers will pursue at least a few, depending on their scouting consensus. 

   As of now, Brady Skjei seems the likeliest prospect to contend for an NHL roster spot come training camp. By the training camp after that, it’d be nice to have 2-3 more candidates to fill the Boyle/Yandle void, almost assuredly coming. 

   Unless the Rangers will tap into a hot pool of premium defensive prospects, this next season could be the “deepest” Top-6 unit the team will have for the foreseeable future.

   Conclusion:

   The Rangers will not be shoppers on the market this summer. The Rangers actually won’t have too many decisions at hand, as most of the roster is essentially already set up for the 2015-16 season. The only kinks are a few restricted free agent details as far as length & pay, as well as the inevitable need to dump a few million in salary (I still think it’s overwhelmingly Klein+Talbot). But that’s it.

   This team had a good run. They played well, were coached well… the problem is they didn’t have an actual "well.” The top-heaviness of the Top-20 roster spots’ salary should be shaved off… and will be, as far as I can tell… but what really kept New York out of the Finals was a lack of depth. A lack of talented prospects bursting at the seems who could be asked to step in and play minutes.

   … And that problem will only be exacerbated come a year from now, when the franchise will truly need to have defensemen with cheap contracts but not cheap playing ability. Look for the Rangers to at least draft a defenseman with their 2nd round, #59 overall pick. 

   There’s no reason why the 2015-16 Rangers should be any less competitive, competent or capable than their predecessor… considering it will likely be a near duplicate of its predecessor… and one more crack at a playoff run before Lundqvist’s 35th birthday. 

   The “window” may be closing, but it should remain at least cracked open, for one more season.

   

   P.S.: I did not discuss Martin St. Louis because he is just as likely to return to New York as any of the other 2015 Unrestricted Free Agent wingers or defensemen out there. I don't think any of us will be surprised if he did not return to Broadway for next season...

   And if not, we undoubtedly thank him for his tremendous service and dedication to the Rangers lineup the past 15 months. It will never be forgotten, despite no championship glory.